Reserve Estimation

Decline curve Analysis

Production decline Analysis
• Production decline analysis is a basic tool for forecasting
production from a reservoir once there is sufficient
production to establish a decline trend as a function of time.
• The technique is more accurate than volumetric methods
when sufficient data is available to establish a reliable trend
and is applicable to both oil and gas wells.
• Accordingly, production decline analysis is most applicable to
producing pools with well established trends.
• The rate versus time plot is commonly used to diagnose well
and reservoir performance.
• Arps (1945, 1956) developed the initial series of decline curve
equations to model well performance. The equations were
classified as exponential, hyperbolic, or harmonic, depending
on the value of the exponent
Production decline Analysis
Production decline Analysis
• The decline-curve analysis technique is based on the
assumption that past production trends and their controlling
factors will continue in the future and, therefore, can be
extrapolated and described by a mathematical expression.
• The method of extrapolating a “trend” for the purpose of
estimating future performance must satisfy the condition that
the factors that caused changes in past performance, for
example, decline in the flow rate, will operate in the same way
in the future.
• Arps (1945) proposed that the “curvature” in the production-
rate-versus-time curve can be expressed mathematically by a
member of the hyperbolic family of equations.
• Arps recognized the three types of rate-decline behaviour:
Production decline Analysis
Arps recognized the three types of rate-decline behaviour:
• Exponential decline
• Harmonic decline
• Hyperbolic decline
Each type of decline curve has a different curvature, as shown in
Figure.
This figure depicts the characteristic shape of each type of
decline when the flow rate is plotted versus time or versus
cumulative production on Cartesian, semi-log, and log-log
scales.
The main characteristics of these decline curves can be used to
select the flow-rate decline model that is appropriate for
describing the rate–time relationship of the hydrocarbon system:
Production decline Analysis
Decline curve method
A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the well’s production rate
on the y axis and versus time on the x-axis. The plot is usually done on
a semi-log paper; i.e. the y-axis is logarithmic and the x-axis is linear;

For exponential decline: A straight-line relationship will result

when the flow rate versus time is plotted on a semi-log scale.
For harmonic decline: Rate versus cumulative production is a
straight line on a semi-log scale. There are several shifting
techniques that are designed to straighten out the curve that
results from plotting flow rate versus time on a log-log scale.
For hyperbolic decline: None of the plotting scales, that is,
Cartesian, semi-log, or log-log, will produce a straight-line
relationship for a hyperbolic decline.
 Decline curve method
• The most common decline curve relationship is the constant
percentage decline (exponential).

• With more and more low productivity wells coming on stream, there
is currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production
rates (hyperbolic and harmonic).

• Decline curves are the most common means of forecasting

production. They have many advantages:

 Data is easy to obtain,

 They are easy to plot,
 They yield results on a time basis, and
 They are easy to analyze.
 Decline curve method
Nearly all conventional decline-curve analysis is based on
empirical relationships of production rate versus time, given
by Arps (1945) as follows:

Where:
 qt = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day
 qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day
 D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day
 t = time, day
 b = Arps’ decline-curve exponent
 Decline curve method
Exponential Decline
As mentioned, in the exponential decline, the well’s production
data plots as a straight line on a semilog paper. The equation of
the straight line on the semilog paper is given by:

To obtain the stock tank oil initially in place (STOIIP), the

cumulative production up to the last year and the maximum
producible oil were added. The formula is given by;
STOIIP = NPmax + Cumulative produced oil up to the last year.
To obtain the maximum producible oil from the reservoir, Npmax,
the formula was used; (When flow rate becomes zero)
Np =
The following table summarizes the equations used in
exponential decline.
 Decline curve method
Exponential Decline
Example:
A well with an exponential decline of 1.5 %/month currently
produces at 300 STB/day.
What will its production rate be in 2 years?
What will its cumulative production be in those 2 years?
What will its decline rate be in 2 years?
What will total cumulative production be from the end of Year
20 to the end of Year 21?
 Decline curve method
Exponential Decline
Solution:
A well with an exponential decline of 1.5 %/month currently produces at
300 STB/day.
What will its production rate be in 2 years?

= 209.3 stb/d
What will its cumulative production be in those 2 years?

=183,919.5 𝑆𝑇𝐵
 Decline curve method
Exponential Decline
Solution:
because the decline rate is constant for exponential decline.
What will total cumulative production be from the end of Year
20 to the end of Year 21?
Hyperbolic Decline
• Alternatively, if the well’s production data plotted on a semilog
paper, it concaves upward, then it is modeled with a hyperbolic
decline.

• The equation of the hyperbolic decline is given by:

• Where:
 q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day
 qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day
 Di = initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), 1/day
 b = hyperbolic exponent
 t = time, day
The following table summarizes the equations
used in hyperbolic decline:
Hyperbolic Decline
Example:
A well with a current hyperbolic decline of 1.5%/month and
b=0.6 currently produces at 300 STB/D
1. What will its production rate be in 2 years?
2. What will its cumulative production be in those 2 years
3. What will its decline rate be in 2 years
4. How long will it take to reach a rate of 10 stb/d
Hyperbolic Decline
Example:
A well with a current hyperbolic decline of 1.5%/month and
b=0.6 currently produces at 300 STB/D
1. What will its production rate be in 2 years?

2. What will its cumulative production be in those 2 years

Hyperbolic Decline
Example:

= 185901 stb
3. What will its decline rate be in 2 years
Hyperbolic Decline
Example:
4. How long will it take to reach a rate of 10 stb/d
Harmonic Decline
• A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as “harmonic
decline”, where b is taken to be equal to 1.

• The following table summarizes the equations used in harmonic

decline:
 Example: 1
Production from a well has declined from 100 BOPD to 96 BOPD during a
one month period. Assuming exponential decline, predict the rate at the
end of 12 months and after 22.5 months. Also predict the amount of oil
produced after one year.
Solution:
1. Calculate the effective decline rate per month:

2. Calculate the nominal decline rate per month:

3. Calculate the rate after 11 more months:

4. Calculate the rate after 22.5 months:

5. Calculate the nominal decline rate per year:

6. Calculate the cumulative oil produced after one year:

Example: 2

Assuming hyperbolic decline, predict the amount of oil

produced for five years.
Solution:
1. Calculate the well flow rate at the end of each year for five years using:

2. Calculate the cumulative oil produced at the end of each year for five years
using:
3. Form the following table:

The amount of oil produced for five years.

Conclusions
•Estimation of reserves is done under conditions of uncertainty
• The principal uncertainties associated with the performance of the
overall reservoir model.
•The type of data which is most important to define the reservoir.
• Reservoir structure
• Reservoir properties
• Reservoir sand connectivity
• Impact of faults
• Relative permeability etc
• Fluid properties
• Aquifer behavior
• Well productivity (fractures, well type, condensate drop out etc.)
• The impact of each of these parameters will vary according to the
particular field.
• It is important that the company is not ignorant of the magnitude of the
contributing uncertainties, so that resources can be directed at cost
effectively reducing specific uncertainties.
"Petroleum Reserves Definitions" (PDF). Petroleum Resources
Management System. Society of Petroleum Engineers. 1997.
http://www.spe.org/spe-site/spe/spe/industry/reserves/Petroleum_Re
serves_Definitions_1997.pdf
. Retrieved 2008-04-20.
A B Wright, Charlotte J.; Rebecca A Gallun (2008). Fundamentals of
Oil & Gas Accounting (5 ed.). PenWell Books. pp. 750. ISBN
1593701373, 9781593701376.
 Decline curve method

To obtain the stock tank oil initially in place (STOIIP), the

cumulative production up to the last year and the maximum
producible oil were added. The formula is given by;
STOIIP = NPmax + Cumulative produced oil up to the last year.
Decline Curve Analysis Methodology
The graph of production rate versus time was plotted on the
semi-log graph (fig.1). A straight line relationship on the semi-log
graph shows that the data undergoes the empirical model of
Arps, J.J.6 , i.e;
 Decline curve method

The plot on the semi-log graph showed a linear relationship, so it

was concluded that the resources follow the empirical
exponential model.

Then a graph of production rate vs. cumulative production was

plotted on the Cartesian graph (fig.2).

From these, the decline rates, D, was obtained from the slope of
graph of a field.

To obtain the maximum producible oil from the reservoir, Npmax,

the formula was used;
 Decline curve method

Example: Calculate initial oil in place for a field having following

production data
 Decline curve method

Solution:

Fig: Decline Curve Graphs of the Field

 Decline curve method
Solution:

Fig: Plot of production rate, q vs. cumulative production rate, Np