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Probability

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19 views

Probability

Uploaded by

harshpanwar3000
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

PART 01
“Probability is the logic of
uncertainty and randomness.
Uncertainty and randomness
happen in just about every field of
application and in daily life, so it is
greatly useful and also fascinating
to understand probability.”
Below are some common terms and definitions

Event: Event refers to any outcome of an experiment that is independent of any other outcome and cannot
occur simultaneously with another event.
Experiment: An action that can deliver some well-defined outcomes, is an experiment.
Random Experiment: “ If every trial of an experiment is carried out under identical conditions, and the
outcome is not unique but maybe one of many possible outcomes then such experiment is known as a
random experiment.”
Sample Space: The set of all probable outcomes in a Random Experiment is referred to as Sample space S,
on the condition that no two of these outcomes can occur together and precisely one of these results must
happen whenever the experiment is carried out.
Certain and Impossible events: If S is a sample space, both S and the null set φ are events. S is termed as
a certain event and φ is termed an impossible event.
Equally Likely Events: The given set of events is equally likely only when the occurrence of one event is not
more probable than any other event.
Exhaustive events: In probability theory, a set of events is said to be exhaustive when at least one of the
events in that set occurs every time the experiment is carried out. There is no other possible event outside
the set of events. For example, flipping a coin has only two outcomes ie. head or tails. There is no other
possibility.
Mutually Exclusive events: A set of events is said to be mutually exclusive when the occurrence of one
event automatically means the impossibility of another event happening on that experiment. Two events A
and B are said to be mutually exclusive if AꓵB = φ.
Algebra of Events: Let A and B are two events. Then,
1.The event ‘either A or B’ happens if at least one of A and B
occurs. It is usually denoted as AꓴB (A or B).
2.The event ‘both A and B’ happens if both A as well B
happen simultaneously. It is depicted as AꓵB (A and B).
3.The event ‘A not’ is said to happen if A does not happen. It
is denoted as Aᶜ.
4.The event ‘A but not B’ happens if A occurs but B does not
happen. It is indicated by A-B.
.
Probability of an event: It essentially means during the
execution of a random experiment the occurrence of any
event is always random but a measure of its likely
occurrence can be calculated and that is known as the
probability of the event.
1.The probability = 0; for a null event
2.The probability= 1 for a sure event
3.0 ≤ P(E)≤1 by definition
4.∑P(E)= 1 since a set of events is exhaustive

No. of favorable outcomes for event A


Total no. of outcomes. =n(A)/ n(S)
For example. If a die is rolled, what is the probability of rolling a 4?
“The sample space of the above random experiment S is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} = 6
outcomes.”
Therefore, the probability of rolling a 4 is = 1 / 6.
Given here are some relevant principles and rules that will help you in
understand probability problems easily.
•“If A is a subset of B then, P(A)≤P(B).”
•“P(φ) = 0.”
•“P(S) = 1.”
•“P(Aᶜ) = 1 – P(A).”
•“P(B-A) = P[B-(AꓵB)] = P(B)-P(AꓵB).”
•“P(AꓴB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AꓵB).”
•“P(AꓴB) = P(A) + P(B) when P(AꓵB) = φ.”
•“P(AꓴBꓴC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AꓵB) – P(BꓵC) – P(CꓵA) + P(AꓵBꓵC).”
Conditional Probability:
Let S be a sample space. Let A and B be any two events. A ≠ φ.

Then, the probability of the occurrence of event B, if A has already occurred, is called
“conditional probability of B restricted to the occurrence of A”. It is denoted as P(A/B).

“Thus, the probability of the event B restricted to the occurrence of the event A is the same as
the probability of event AꓵB while A is considered as sample space.”

“P(B/A) = n(AꓵB)/ n(A) = P(AꓵB)/P(A)”

1.“P(AꓵB) = P(A). P(B/A)”


If A ≠ φ & B ≠ φ then,
2. “P(AꓵB) = P(A). P(B/A) = P(A). P(A/B).”

Conditional probability theory is a very significant theory of probability. It is used in many


kinds of problems. Study the example below to understand the concept of conditional
probability thoroughly.
Example: A card is drawn randomly from a pack of cards.
Find the probability of the card being a heart if it is already a
king?
Solution: Let A be the event where the card is of heart
and B be the event where the card is king
Consequently, P(A) = 13/52; and P(B) = 4/52
=> P(AꓵB) = 1/52
Thus, P(A/B) = P (King of heart) = P(AꓵB)/P(A)
= (1/52)/ (4/52)
=¼
Independent Events: Two events are assumed to be
independent if the likelihood of occurrence of one event does
not affect the likelihood of occurrence of the other i.e. two
events A and B are said to be independent if
“P(A/B) = P(A/Bᶜ) = P(A)”
“Or, P(B/A) = P(B/Aᶜ) = P(B)”
“Or, P(AꓵB) = P(A). P(B)”
Let us consider another example:
Example: A puzzle is given to three students. The chances of
solving for each student are ½, ⅓, and ¼ respectively. Find the
probability that the puzzle is going to be solved?
Solution:
Let there be 3 events A, B, and C such that
A is the event where the student with probability ½ solves the puzzle,
B is the event where the student with probability ⅓ solves the puzzle,
C is the event where the student with probability ¼ solves the puzzle,
So, P(A) = ½,
P(B) = ⅓, and
P(C) = ¼
Accordingly, Aᶜ, Bᶜ and Cᶜ are the events when the respective students could not solve the puzzles.
P(Aᶜ) = 1-½ = ½,
P(Bᶜ) = 1-⅓ = ⅔,
P(Cᶜ) = 1-¼ = ¾

Since we are required to determine the probability of solving the puzzle and to find out the
probability of not solving the puzzle, we just subtract the former from 1 to get the answer.

As we can observe, in this example, the probabilities of every event is independent of other events.
More than one student can also solve the puzzle

Therefore, P(AᶜꓵBᶜꓵCᶜ) = P(Aᶜ). P(Bᶜ). P(Cᶜ) = ½ X ⅔ X ¾ = ¼


Hence, the P [succesful solution of the puzzle] = 1 – P [no student solves the puzzle]
=> 1 – ¼ = ¾
Note: Three events A, B, and C are said to be independent of each other if
“P(AꓵBꓵC) = P(A). P(B). P(C)”
Similarly,
Three events A, B, and C are said to be pairwise independent if
“P(AꓵB) = P(A). P(B), P(BꓵC) = P(B). P(C) & P(AꓵC) = P(A). P(C)”

The connection among Independence and Mutually Exclusiveness of any two events.
•“If two events A ≠ φ and B ≠ φ are independent, then they are not mutually exclusive.”
•“If two events A ≠ φ and B ≠ φ are mutually exclusive, then they are not independent.”

Independent Experiments: Let there be two random experiments where one follows the other. If on
repeated conducting of experiments, the sample space of any one event is not influenced by the outcome
of the other, then two experiments are independent of each other.

It is important to note that there’s a distinction between independent events and independent
experiments. Independent events define events within one experiment whereas independent
experiments are two or more separate experiments with their own set of events.

i.e. consider the rolling of a dice, here the sample space for a second or third roll is not influenced by the
results of the first roll. So, two rolls are random experiments

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