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Stat Q4 Lesson 1 Testing Hypothesis

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Stat Q4 Lesson 1 Testing Hypothesis

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Symoun
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QUARTER 4

TESTING HYPOTHESIS
 define and illustrate the null hypothesis,
alternative hypothesis, level of significance,
rejection region, and types of errors in
hypothesis testing;
 identify the rejection and non-rejection
regions and the critical values; and
 differentiate Type I and Type II errors in
claims and decisions.
HYPOTHESIS
 Is an initial answer to a
question regarding a
population
 Is a proposed explanation,
assertion, or assumption
about a population or about
the distribution of a random
variable.
• is a statistical method
applied in making
decisions using
HYPOTHESIS experimental data.
TESTING • Hypothesis testing is
basically testing an
assumption that we
make about a
population.
EXAMPLES OF QUESTIONS YOU CAN
ANSWER WITH A HYPOTHESIS TEST
 Does the mean height of Grade 12 students
differ from 66 inches?
 Do male and female Grade 7 and Grade 12
students differ in height on average?
 Is the proportion of senior male students’
height significantly higher than that of
senior female students?
THE NULL AND ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS

• The null hypothesis is an initial claim based on previous


analysis, which the researcher tries to disprove, reject, or
nullify. It shows no significant difference between two
parameters. It is denoted by 𝐻𝑜.
• The alternative hypothesis is contrary to the null
hypothesis, which shows that observations are the
result of a real effect. It also shows that there is a
significant difference between two parameters. It is

denoted by 𝐻𝑎.
HOW TO WRITE THE NULL AND ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS

SITUATION
The school record claims that the mean score in Math
of the incoming Grade 11 students is 81. The teacher
wishes to find out if the claim is true. She tests if there
is a significant difference between the batch mean
score and the mean score of students in her class.
SOLUTION
Let 𝜇 be the population mean score and 𝑥̅ be the mean score of
students in her class. You may select any of the following statements
as your null and alternative hypothesis as shown in Option 1 and
Option 2.

Option 1
𝐻𝑜: The mean score of the incoming Grade 11 students is 81
or 𝜇 = 81.
𝐻𝑎: The mean score of the incoming Grade 11 students is not 81
or 𝜇 ≠ 81.
SOLUTION
• Let 𝜇 be the population mean score and 𝑥̅ be the mean score of
students in her class. You may select any of the following
statements as your null and alternative hypothesis as shown in
Option 1 and Option 2.

Option 2
𝐻𝑜: The mean score of the incoming Grade 11 students has no
significant difference with the mean score of her students or 𝜇 = 𝑥̅.

𝐻𝑎: The mean score of the incoming Grade 11 students has a


significant difference with the mean score of her students or 𝜇 ≠ 𝑥̅.
Analyze the situation below and answer the
questions that follow.
• According to a survey, the average daily usage of social media
worldwide of global internet users amounts to 142 minutes per day.
Sofia conducts her own survey among her friends to find out if their
time spent on social media is significantly higher than the global
survey.
Before her survey, she formulated the following claims:
• Claim A: The average daily usage of social media of her friends is the
same as the global average usage.
• Claim B: The average daily usage of social media of her friends is
higher than the global average usage.
PRACTICE
Based on the first claim of Sofia “the average daily usage of social
media of her friends is the same as the global average usage”,
formulate two hypotheses about the global average usage (𝜇) and the
average usage of her friends (𝑥̅).

Writing the null hypothesis,


𝐻𝑜: The mean score of daily usage of social media of her
friends has no significant difference with the global average
usage, or 𝜇 = 𝑥.
PRACTICE
Based on the first claim of Sofia “the average daily usage of social
media of her friends is the same as the global average usage”,
formulate two hypotheses about the global average usage (𝜇) and the
average usage of her friends (𝑥̅) on the blanks provided below.

Writing the alternative hypothesis,


𝐻𝑎: The mean score of daily usage of social media of her friends
has a significant difference with the global usage
average, or 𝜇 ≠ 𝑥̅.
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
 The level of significance denoted by alpha
or 𝛂 refers to the degree of significance in
which we accept or reject the null
hypothesis.
 100% accuracy is not possible in accepting
or rejecting a hypothesis.
 The significance level α is also the
probability of making the wrong decision
when the null hypothesis is true.
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE

The most common levels of significance


used are 1%, 5%, or 10%?
Some statistics books can provide us table
of values for these levels of significance.
PRACTICE WITH LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE

Maria uses 5% level of significance in proving that


there is no significant change in the average number
of enrollees in the 10 sections for the last two years.
It means that the chance that the null hypothesis
(𝐻𝑜) would be rejected when it is true is 5%.
PRACTICE WITH LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE
Maria uses 5% level of significance in proving that there is no significant change
in the average number of enrollees in the 10 sections for the last two years. It
means that the chance that the null hypothesis (𝐻𝑜) would be rejected when it
is true is 5%.
PRACTICE WITH LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE

𝛼 = 0.05 is actually the area under the normal curve within


the rejection region.
TWO-TAILED TEST versus ONE-TAILED TEST

 When the alternative hypothesis is two-sided


like 𝐻𝑎: 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0, it is called a two-tailed test.

 When the given statistics hypothesis assumes a


less than or greater than value, it is called a
one-tailed test.
ONE-TAILED TEST

versus

TWO-TAILED TEST
TWO-TAILED TEST VS ONE-TAILED TEST
EXAMPLE
The school registrar believes
that the average number of
enrollees this school year is
not the same as the previous
school year.
Let 𝜇0 be the average
number of enrollees last year.
If 𝐻𝑎 uses ≠, use
𝐻𝑜: 𝜇 = 𝜇0 a two-tailed test.
𝐻𝑎: 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0
TWO-TAILED TEST VS ONE-TAILED TEST

However, if the school


registrar believes that
the average number of
enrollees this school
year is less than the
previous school year,
then you will have:
𝐻𝑜: 𝜇 = 𝜇0 Use the left-tailed
𝐻𝑎: 𝜇 < 𝜇0 when 𝐻𝑎 contains the
symbol <.
TWO-TAILED TEST VS ONE-TAILED TEST

On the other hand, if the


school registrar believes
that the average number
of enrollees this school
year is greater than the
previous school year, then
you will have:
Use the right-tailed test
𝐻𝑜: 𝜇 = 𝜇0
when 𝐻𝑎 contains the
𝐻𝑎: 𝜇 > 𝜇0 symbol >.
TWO-TAILED TEST VS ONE-TAILED TEST
Now back to the two claims of Sofia, what do you think
should be the type of test in her following claims?
Claim A: The average daily usage of social media of her
friends is the same as the global average usage.
Answer: Two-Tailed Test

Claim B: The average daily usage of social media of her


friends is higher than the global average usage.
Answer: One-Tailed Test
ILLUSTRATION OF THE REJECTION REGION
 The rejection region (or critical region) is the set of all
values of the test statistic that causes us to reject the null
hypothesis.
 The non-rejection region (or acceptance region) is the set
of all values of the test statistic that causes us to fail to
reject the null hypothesis.
 The critical value is a point (boundary) on the test
distribution that is compared to the test statistic to
determine if the null hypothesis would be rejected.
ILLUSTRATION OF THE REJECTION REGION
TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS USING THE T-VALUE

Formula where
t = t-value
𝜇 = population average
𝑥̅ = sample average
s = standard deviation
n = no. of samples
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 1

Assuming Sofia’s claim that the average online usage of


her friends is the same as the global usage (Ho),
and 𝜇 = 142, 𝑥̅ = 152, s = 19.855, and n = 10,
compute the t-value.

Use the formula


ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 1
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 1

From the table of


t-values, determine
the critical value.

Use
df = n-1; n = 9;
one-tailed test;
at 5% level of
significance.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 1

Now, you can sketch a t-distribution curve


and label showing the rejection area
(shaded part), the non-rejection region, the
critical value, and the computed t-value.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 1
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 1
As you can see from
your previous
illustration, the
computed t-value of
1.593 is at the left of
the critical value
1.833.

The computed value


is less than the
critical value.
ILLUSTRATIVE Example 1

The computed t-value is at the


non-rejection region.

Reviewing the hypotheses statement, DECISION


𝐻𝑜: The average online usage of her friends is Fail to Reject the
the same as the global usage.
𝐻𝑎: The average online usage of her friends is
null hypothesis, 𝐻𝑜.
higher than the global usage.
ILLUSTRATIVE Example 1
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 2

A medical trial is conducted to test whether or not a certain


drug reduces cholesterol level. Upon trial, the computed z-
value of 2.715 lies in the rejection area.
The computed value
is greater than the
critical value.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 2
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 3

Sketch the rejection region of the test hypothesis


with critical values of ±1.753 and determine if the
computed t-value of –1.52 lies in that region.

SOLUTION:
Draw a t-distribution curve. Since there are two
critical values, it is a two-tailed test. Locate the
critical values and shade the rejection regions.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 3
Sketch the rejection region of the test hypothesis with
critical values of ±1.753 and determine if the computed
t-value of –1.52 lies in that region.

Now, locate the computed t-value of –1.52. You can


clearly see that it is not at the rejection region as
shown in the following figure. The computed t-value
is at the non-rejection region. Therefore, we fail to
reject the null hypothesis, 𝐻𝑜 (of we accept Ho).
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE 3
TYPE I and TYPE II ERRORS
Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true is called a
TYPE I error with probability denoted by alpha (𝜶). In
hypothesis testing, the normal curve that shows the critical
region is called the alpha region.
Accepting the null hypothesis when it is false is called a
TYPE II error with probability denoted by beta (𝛃). In
hypothesis testing, the normal curve that shows the
acceptance region is called the beta region.
The larger the value of alpha (𝜶), the smaller is the value of
beta (𝛃).
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
To summarize the difference between the TYPE I and TYPE II
errors, take a look at the table below.
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
Now, complete the statements that follow. Analyze the possibilities of
Sofia’s conclusion. Identify if it is a Type I Error, Type II Error, or a
Correct Decision. If Sofia finds out that her null hypothesis is …
1. true and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
___________________.
2. true and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
3. false and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
__________________.
4. false and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
Now, complete the statements that follow. Analyze the possibilities of
Sofia’s conclusion. Identify if it is a Type I Error, Type II Error, or a
Correct Decision. If Sofia finds out that her null hypothesis is …
1. true and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
___________________.
Correct Decision
2. true and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
3. false and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
__________________.
4. false and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
Now, complete the statements that follow. Analyze the possibilities of
Sofia’s conclusion. Identify if it is a Type I Error, Type II Error, or a
Correct Decision. If Sofia finds out that her null hypothesis is …
1. true and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
___________________.
Correct Decision
2. true and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
Type I Error

3. false and she fails to reject it, then she commits a


__________________.
4. false and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
Now, complete the statements that follow. Analyze the possibilities of
Sofia’s conclusion. Identify if it is a Type I Error, Type II Error, or a
Correct Decision. If Sofia finds out that her null hypothesis is …
1. true and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
___________________.
Correct Decision
2. true and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
Type I Error

3. false and she fails to reject it, then she commits a


__________________.
Type II Error

4. false and she rejects it, then she commits a


_____________________.
TYPE I AND TYPE II ERRORS
Now, complete the statements that follow. Analyze the possibilities of
Sofia’s conclusion. Identify if it is a Type I Error, Type II Error, or a
Correct Decision. If Sofia finds out that her null hypothesis is …
1. true and she fails to reject it, then she commits a
___________________.
Correct Decision
2. true and she rejects it, then she commits a
_____________________.
Type I Error

3. false and she fails to reject it, then she commits a


__________________.
Type II Error

4. false and she rejects it, then she commits a


_____________________.
Correct Decision
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
What would be the consequence of a TYPE I error in this
setting?
_____ He doesn't choose a city where demand is actually high enough.
_____ He chooses a city where demand is actually high enough.
_____ He chooses a city where demand isn't actually high enough.

The Type I error is the first statement because he rejected


the true null hypothesis.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

What would be the consequence of a TYPE II error in this setting?


_____ He doesn't choose a city where demand is actually high enough.
_____ He chooses a city where demand is actually high enough.
_____ He chooses a city where demand isn't actually high enough.

The Type II error is the first statement because he rejected


the false null hypothesis.
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
What is the probability of TYPE I error?
_____ 0.10
_____ 0.25
_____ 0.05
_____ 0.01

The probability of TYPE I error is 0.05 because it is the level


of significance used.

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