Probability

Distributions
 Random Variable
• Random variable
– Outcomes of an experiment
expressed numerically
– e.g.: Throw a die twice; Count the
number of times the number 6
appears (0, 1 or 2 times)
Discrete Random Variable
Discrete Random Variable with a Finite
Number of Values
A discrete random variable may assume either a
finite number of values or an infinite sequence of
values.

Let x = number of TVs sold at the store in one day,

where x can take on 5 values (0, 1, 2, 3, 4)

We can count the TVs sold, and there is a finite

upper limit on the number that might be sold (which
is the number of TVs in stock).
Discrete Random Variable with an Infinite
Sequence of Values

Let x = number of customers arriving in one day,

where x can take on the values 0, 1, 2, . . .

We can count the customers arriving, but there is

no finite upper limit on the number that might arrive.
 Continuous Random
Variable

• A continuous random variable may assume any

numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals.

Example: Height, Weight

 Random Variables

Question Random Variable x Type

Family x = Number of dependents Discrete

size reported on tax return

Distance from x = Distance in miles from Continuous

home to store home to the store site
Own dog x = 1 if own no pet; Discrete
or cat = 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
Discrete Probability Distributions

The probability distribution for a random variable

describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.

We can describe a discrete probability distribution

with a table, graph, or formula.
Discrete Probability Distributions

Two types of discrete probability distributions will

be introduced.

First type: uses the rules of assigning probabilities

to experimental outcomes to determine probabilitie
for each value of the random variable.

Second type: uses a special mathematical formula

to compute the probabilities for each value of the
random variable.
Discrete Probability Distributions

The probability distribution is defined by a

probability function, denoted by f(x), that provides
the probability for each value of the random variable

The required conditions for a discrete probability

function are:
f(x) > 0

f(x) = 1
Discrete Probability Distributions

There are three methods for assign probabilities to

random variables: the classical method, the subject
method, and the relative frequency method.

The use of the relative frequency method to develo

discrete probability distributions leads to what is
called an empirical discrete distribution.
Discrete Probability Distributions
 Example: JSL Appliances
• Using past data on TV sales, …
• a tabular representation of the probability
distribution for TV sales was developed.
Number
x
80/20
f(x) 80/20
Units Sold of Days
0 80 0 .40 0
1 50 1 .25
2 40 2 .20
3 10 3 .05
4 20 4 .10
200 1.00
Discrete Probability Distributions
Graphical
 Example: JSL Appliances representation
of probability
distribution
.50
Probability
.40

.30
.20
.10

0 1 2 3 4
Values of Random Variable x (TV sales)
Discrete Probability Distributions

In addition to tables and graphs, a formula that

gives the probability function, f(x), for every value
of x is often used to describe the probability
distributions.

Several discrete probability distributions specified

by formulas are the discrete-uniform, binomial,
Poisson, and hypergeometric distributions.
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution

The discrete uniform probability distribution is the

simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.

The discrete uniform probability function is

f(x) = 1/n the values of the

random variable
are equally likely
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume
 Expected Value
The expected value, or mean, of a random variable
is a measure of its central location.

The expected value is a weighted average of the

values the random variable may assume. The
weights are the probabilities.

The expected value does not have to be a value the

random variable can assume.
Variance and Standard Deviation

The variance summarizes the variability in the

values of a random variable.

The variance is a weighted average of the squared

deviations of a random variable from its mean.
The weights are the probabilities.

The standard deviation, , is defined as the

positive square root of the variance.
 Expected Value
 Example: JSL Appliances

x f(x) xf(x)
0 .40 .00
1 .25 .25
2 .20 .40
3 .05 .15
4 .10 .40
E(x) = 1.20

expected number
of TVs sold in a day
 Variance
 Example: JSL Appliances

x- (x - )2 f(x) (x - )2f(x)

x
0 -1.2 1.44 .40 .576
1 -0.2 0.04 .25 .010
2 0.8 0.64 .20 .128
3 1.8 3.24 .05 .162
4 2.8 7.84 .10 .784 TVs
square
Variance of daily sales = 2 = 1.660
d

Standard deviation of daily sales = 1.2884 TVs

Bivariate Distributions

A probability distribution involving two random

variables is called a bivariate probability distribution
distributio

Each outcome of a bivariate experiment consists of

two values, one for each random variable.
Example: rolling a pair of
dice
When dealing with bivariate probability distribution
we are often interested in the relationship between
the random variables.
A Bivariate Discrete Probability
Distribution
A company asked 200 of its employees how
they
rated their benefit package and job satisfaction.
The
Benefits Job Satisfaction
crosstabulation below shows (ythe
) ratings data.
Package (x) 1 2 3 Total
1 28 26 4 58
2 22 42 34 98
3 2 10 32
44
Total 52 78 70 200
A Bivariate Discrete Probability
Distribution
The bivariate empirical discrete probabilities
for
benefits rating and job satisfaction are shown
below.
Benefits Job Satisfaction (y)
Package (x) 1 2 3 Total
1 .14 .13 .02 .29
2 .11 .21 .17 .49
3 .01 .05 .16 .22
Total .26 .39 .35 1.00
A Bivariate Discrete Probability
Distribution
 Expected Value and Variance for Benefits
Package, x

(x -
x f(x) xf(x) x - E(x) (x - E(x))2f(x)
E(x))2

1 0.29 0.29 -0.93 0.8649 0.250821

2 0.49 0.98 0.07 0.0049 0.002401

3 0.22 0.66 1.07 1.1449 0.251878

E(x) = 1.93 Var(x) = 0.505100

A Bivariate Discrete Probability
Distribution
 Expected Value and Variance for Job
Satisfaction, y

(y -
y f(y) yf(y) y - E(y) (y - E(y))2f(y)
E(y))2

1 0.26 0.26 -1.09 1.1881 0.308906

2 0.39 0.78 -0.09 0.0081 0.003159

3 0.35 1.05 0.91 0.8281 0.289835

E(y) = 2.09 Var(y) = 0.601900

 Discrete Probability
Distributions

Binomial Poisson
 Binomial Distribution-
Assumptions
• “n” Identical & finite trials
– e.g.: 15 tosses of a coin; 10 light bulbs taken from a
warehouse
• Two mutually exclusive outcomes on
each trial
– e.g.: Heads or tails in each toss of a coin; defective or
not defective light bulb
• Trials are independent of each other
– The outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome
of the other.
• Constant probability for each trial
– e.g.: Probability of getting a tail is the same each time
a coin is tossed
 Binomial Distribution
• A random variable X is said to follow
Binomial distribution if it assumes only
non negative values and its function is
given by
n!
PX x   p x 1  p 
n x

x!n  x !
• x: No. of “successes” in a sample,
x=0,1,2..,n.
• n: Number of trials.
• p: probability of each success.
• q: probability of each failure (q=1-p)

•Notation: X ~ B (n, p).

Binomial Probability Distribution
 Binomial Probability
Function
n!
f (x)  px (1 p)(n x)
x!(n  x)!

Probability of a particular
Number of experimental
sequence of trial outcomes
outcomes providing exactly
with x successes in n trials
x successes in n trials
Binomial Probability Distribution
 Example: Evans Electronics
Evans Electronics is concerned about a low
retention rate for its employees. In recent
years,
management has seen a turnover of 10% of
the
Thus, for any hourly employee chosen at
hourly employees annually.
random,
management estimates a probability of 0.1
that the
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random,
person
what will
is not be with the company next year.
the probability that 1 of them will leave the
company
this year?
Binomial Probability Distribution
 Example: Evans Electronics
The probability of the first employee leaving
and the
second and third employees staying, denoted
(S, F, F),
is given by
With a .10 probability of –an
p(1 employee
p)(1 – p) leaving
on any
one trial, the probability of an employee
leaving on
the first trial and not on the second and third
trials is
given by
(.10)(.90)(.90) = (.10)(.90)2
Binomial Probability Distribution
 Example: Evans Electronics
Two other experimental outcomes also result in
one
success and two failures. The probabilities for
all
three experimental outcomes involving one
Experiment
success Probability of
al Experimental Outcome
follow.
Outcome p(1 – p)(1 – p) = (.1)(.9)(.9)
(S, F, F) = .081
(F, S, F) (1 – p)p(1 – p) = (.9)(.1)(.9)
(F, F, S) = .081
(1 – p)(1 – p)p = (.9)(.9)(.1)
= .081
Total = .243
Binomial Probability Distribution
 Example: Evans Electronics
Using the
Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1 probability
function
n!
f ( x)  p x (1  p ) (n  x )
x !( n  x )!
3!
f (1)  (0.1)1(0.9)2 3(.1)(.81)  .243
1!(3  1)!
 Binomial Probability Distribution
Using a tree diagram
 Example: Evans Electronics
1st Worker 2nd Worker 3rd Worker x Prob.
L (.1) 3 .0010
Leaves (.1)
S (.9) 2 .0090
Leaves
(.1) L (.1) 2 .0090
Stays (.9)
S (.9) 1 .0810
L (.1) 2 .0090
Leaves (.1)
Stays S (.9) 1 .0810
(.9) L (.1)
1 .0810
Stays (.9)
S (.9) 0 .7290
Binomial Probabilities and Cumulative
Probabilities
Statisticians have developed tables that give
probabilities and cumulative probabilities for a
binomial random variable.

These tables can be found in some statistics

textbooks.

With modern calculators and the capability of

statistical software packages, such tables are
almost unnecessary.
Binomial Probability Distribution

 Using Tables of Binomial Probabilities

p
n x .05 .10 .15 .20 .25 .30 .35 .40 .45 .50
3 0 .8574 .7290 .6141 .5120 .4219 .3430 .2746 .2160 .1664 .1250
1 .1354 .2430 .3251 .3840 .4219 .4410 .4436 .4320 .4084 .3750
2 .0071 .0270 .0574 .0960 .1406 .1890 .2389 .2880 .3341 .3750
3 .0001 .0010 .0034 .0080 .0156 .0270 .0429 .0640 .0911 .1250
 Binomial
Distribution Characteristics
• Mean
 E  X  np
EX:  np 5 .1 .5

.6
P(X) n = 5 p = 0.1
• Variance and .4
standard deviation- .2
0 X
 np 1  p 
2
0 1 2 3 4 5

  np 1  p 
Ex:
  np 1  p   5 .11  .1 .6708
 Binomial Probability Distribution
 Example: Evans Electronics

• Expected Value

• Variance

• Standard Deviation
 Example
• The experiment: Randomly draw red ball with
replacement from an urn containing 10 red
balls and 20 black balls.

• Use S to denote the outcome of drawing a red

ball and F to denote the outcome of a black
ball.

• Then this is a binomial experiment with p =1/3.

• Q: Would it still be a binomial experiment if the

balls were drawn without replacement?
 Practice Questions
• Consider a binomial experiment with
n=10 and p=.10
• Compute f(0), f(1), f(2).
• Compute P(x≤2)
• Compute P(x≥1)
• Compute E(x)
• Compute Var(x) and s.d
 Questions for practice
• Ten coins are thrown simultaneously. Find the
probability of getting at least seven heads.

• A & B play a game in which their chances of

winning are in the ratio 3:2. find A’s chance of
winning at least 3 games out of the 5 games
played.

• Mr. Gupta applies for a personal loan of Rs 150,000

from a nationalized bank to repair his house. The
loan offer informed him that over the years bank
has received about 2920 loan applications per year
and that the prob. Of approval was on average,
about 0.85. Mr. Gupta wants to know the average
and standard deviation of the number of loans
• The incidence of a certain disease in
such that on the average 20% of
workers suffer from it. If 10 workers
are selected at random, find the
probability that
1. Exactly 2 workers suffer from the
disease.
2. Not more than 2 workers suffer from
the disease.

• Bring out the fallacy, if any

1. The mean of a binomial distribution is
15 and its standard deviation is 5.
2. Find the binomial distribution whose
mean is 6 and variance is 4.
• The probability that an evening college student
will be graduate is 0.4.Determine the probability
that out of 5 students
• None will be graduate.
• One will be graduate.
• At least one will be graduate.
• Multiple choice test consists of 8 questions and
three answers to each question (of which only one
is correct). A student answers each question by
rolling a balanced die and marking the first answer
if he gets 1 or 2, the second answer if he gets 3 or
4 and the third answer if he gets 5 or 6. To get a
distinction, student must secure at least 75%
correct answers.If there is no negative marking,
what is the probability that student secures a
distinction?
• When a new machine is functioning properly, only 3% of
the items produced are defective. Assume that we will
randomly select two parts produced on the machine and
that we are interested in the number of defective parts
found.
• a. Describe the conditions under which this situation
would be a binomial experiment.
• b. Draw a tree diagram showing this problem as a two-
trial experiment.
• c. How many experimental outcomes result in exactly one
defect being found?
• d. Compute the probabilities associated with finding no
defects, exactly one defect, and two defects .
• A Harris Interactive survey for InterContinental Hotels
& Resorts asked respondents, “When traveling
internationally, do you generally venture out on your
own to experience culture, or stick with your tour
group and itineraries?” The survey found that 23% of
the respondents stick with their tour group (USA
Today, January 21, 2004).
• a. In a sample of six international travelers, what is
the probability that two will stick with their tour
group?
• b. In a sample of six international travelers, what is
the probability that at least two will stick with their
tour group?
• c. In a sample of 10 international travelers, what is
the probability that none will stick with the tour
group?
 Binomial Distribution-
Different situations
Random experiments and random
variable
 Situations Contd..

Random experiments and random

variables
 Poisson
Distribution
 Poisson Probability Distribution

A Poisson distributed random variable is often

useful in estimating the number of occurrences
over a specified interval of time or space

It is a discrete random variable that may assume

an infinite sequence of values (x = 0, 1, 2, . . . ).
Poisson Probability Distribution

Examples of Poisson distributed random variables:

the number of leaks in 100 miles of pipeline

the number of vehicles arriving at a toll

booth in one hour

Bell Labs used the Poisson distribution to model

the arrival of phone calls.
 Poisson Probability Distribution

 Two Properties of a Poisson Experiment

1. The probability of an occurrence is the same

for any two intervals of equal length.

2. The occurrence or nonoccurrence in any

interval is independent of the occurrence or
nonoccurrence in any other interval.
 Poisson Probability Distribution
• Poisson Probability Function
 xe 
f ( x) 
x!

where:
x = the number of occurrences in an interval
f(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an inter
 = mean number of occurrences in an interval
e = 2.71828
x! = x(x – 1)(x – 2) . . . (2)(1)
Poisson Probability Distribution
 Poisson Probability Function

Since there is no stated upper limit for the number

of occurrences, the probability function f(x) is
applicable for values x = 0, 1, 2, … without limit.

In practical applications, x will eventually become

large enough so that f(x) is approximately zero
and the probability of any larger values of x
becomes negligible.
 Poisson Probability Distribution
 Example: Mercy Hospital

Patients arrive at the emergency room of

Mercy
Hospital at the average rate of 6 per hour on
weekend evenings.
What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30
minutes
on a weekend evening?
Poisson Probability Distribution

Using the
 Example: Mercy Hospital probability
function

 = 6/hour = 3/half-hour, x = 4
34(2.71828) 3
f (4)   .1680
4!
Poisson Probability Distribution
 Example: Mercy Hospital

Poisson Probabilities
0.25

0.20
Probability

0.15 Actually,
the
0.10 sequence
continues:
0.05 11, 12, 13
…
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of Arrivals in 30 Minutes
 Poisson Probability Distribution

A property of the Poisson distribution is that

the mean and variance are equal.

Variance for Number of Arrivals During

30-Minute Periods

 =  2 = 3
 Poisson Distribution
Characteristics
• Mean
 E  X  
N
 X i P  X i 
i 1

• Variance & Standard deviation

 2   
Example
Arrivals at a bus-stop follow a
Poisson distribution with an
average of 4.5 every quarter
of an hour.
(assume a maximum of 20
arrivals in a quarter of an
hour) and calculate the
probability of fewer than 3
arrivals in a quarter of an
hour.
The probabilities of 0 up to 2 arrivals can
be calculated directly from the formula


e 
x
with  =4.5
p()x 
x!
 4.50
e 4.5 So p(0) = 0.01111
p(0) 
0!
Similarly p(1)=0.0611 and p(2)=0.2381

So the probability of fewer than 3 arrivals

is
0.01111+ 0.0611 + 0.2381 =0.31031
 Questions for practice
• Suppose on an average 1 house in 1000 in a
certain district has a fire during a year.If there
are 2000 houses in that district,what is the
probability that exactly 5 houses will have a
fire during the year?
• If 3% of the electric bulbs manufactured by a
company are defective, find the probability
that in a sample of 100 bulbs
a) 0 b) 5 bulbs c) more than 5
d) between 1 and 3
e) less than or equal to 2 bulbs are defective
• Comment on the following for a Poisson
distribution with Mean = 3 and s.D = 2

• In a Poisson distribution if p(2)= 2/3 p(1).

Find
i) mean ii) standard deviation
iii)P(3) iv) p(x > 3)

• A car hire firm has two cars, which it hires

out day by day.The number of demands
for a car on each day is distributed as a
Poisson distribution with mean 1.5.
Calculate the proportion of days on which
i) Neither car is used.
ii) Some demand is refused.
Phone calls arrive at the rate of 48 per hour at the
reservation desk for Regional Airways.

a.Compute the probability of receiving three calls in a 5-

minute interval of time.
b.Compute the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in
15 minutes.
c.Suppose no calls are currently on hold. If the agent
takes 5 minutes to complete the current call, how many
callers do you expect to be waiting by that time? What is
the probability that none will be waiting?
d.If no calls are currently being processed, what is the
probability that the agent can take 3 minutes for
personal time without being interrupted by a call?
Airline passengers arrive randomly and
independently at the passenger-screening
facility at a major international airport. The
mean arrival rate is 10 passengers per
minute.
a.Compute the probability of no arrivals in a
one-minute period.
b.Compute the probability that three or fewer
passengers arrive in a one-minute period.
c.Compute the probability of no arrivals in a
15-second period.
d.Compute the probability of at least one
arrival in a 15-second period.
 Poisson type Situations
• Number of deaths from a disease.
• No. of suicides reported in a city.
• No. of printing mistakes at each page of a
book.
• Emission of radioactive particles.
• No. of telephone calls per minute at a
small business.
• No. of paint spots per new automobile.
• No. of arrivals at a toll booth
• No. of flaws per bolt of cloth