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lecture9

Lecture note 9 for ST 1232

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Tan Jun Rong
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27 views13 pages

lecture9

Lecture note 9 for ST 1232

Uploaded by

Tan Jun Rong
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Highlight the last lecture

Let A={mammogram positive}


Let B={breast cancer}

We are interested in these


two probabilities

We can obtain only these two


probabilities from data

where

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 1


Highlight the last lecture

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 2


Expected values of functions of X

 Let X be a discrete random variable.


 Let Y be any function of X, such as Y=g(X).
 The expected value of Y is

where the sum is taken over all possible values of X.

 The properties of expected values are:

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 3


Variance of a discrete random variable
 The variance of X is a measure of spread for a distribution.
 The variance of discrete random variable X, denoted by
is

 The standard deviation of X, denoted by


 The standard deviation of X is equal to the square root of the
variance.

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 4


Properties of variance and standard deviation of X

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 5


Example: Height of Tree
 A garden center has 80 cherry trees. The following
information shows their heights to the nearest foot:

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 6


Example: Cont’d

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 7


The equivalence of formulae

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 8


Permutation
 How many ways can k objects be selected out of n
where the order of selection matters?
 It is the permutation problem.

 E.g.
 n=4 (a,b,c,d) and k=2
 {ab},{ac}{ad}{ba}{bc}{bd}{ca}{cb}{cd}{da}{db}{dc},

12 ways
 The number of permutation of n things taken k at a time
is

where
11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 9
Combinations
 How many ways can k objects be selected out of n where the order
of selection does not matter?
 It is the combination problem.
 E.g.
 n=4 (a,b,c,d) and k=2
 {ab},{ac}{ad}{bc}{bd}{cd}, 6 ways

 The number of combinations of n things taken k at a time is

for any nonnegative integers, n,k

 Notice that

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 10


The binomial distribution

 Common structure of the binomial distribution:


 A sample of n independent trials.

 Each trial can have only two possible outcomes


which are denoted as ‘success’ and ‘failure’.

 The probability of a success at each trial is


assumed to be constant p.

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 11


Binomial distribution

 The distribution of X the number of successes in n


independent trials, where the probability of success on
each trial is p, is known as the binomial distribution and
has a probability mass function as:

 The mean and variance of a binomial random variable are

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 12


Derivation of the binomial probability function
 Suppose that in a manufacturing process the chance of
producing a good item is p. A random sample of n is chosen.
Let X be the number of good items in the sample. Find
P(X=k).

p p p 1- p 1- p 1- p
n items

k good items (n-k) bad items


 Probability of each sequence is

 Number of such sequence is

 Therefore, the probability of X=k is

11 September, 2006 ST1232 -- Part IV 13

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