CHAPTER FOUR

4. IMPACT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS

4.1. Impact Identification(Techniques)

4.2. Impact Prediction (Principles and Approach)
4.3. Impact Evaluation(Principles and Approach)
4.4. Environmental Media and Socioeconomic Index:
 Definition
 Impact identification is a process designed to ensure that all
potentially significant impacts are identified and taken into account
in the EIA process.

 Impact prediction is a process designed to identify the magnitude of

potential impacts, and provides the basis for the assessment of
significance.

 Impact evaluation is a process that helps assess the relative

significance of impacts.
 4. IMPACT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS

 This topic introduces you to the important stages of how to

identify the potential impacts of a project.
Types of impacts
 Impacts on the environment can lead to changes in existing
conditions; the impacts can be
I. Direct/ Primary,
II. Indirect/ Secondary
III. cumulative.
 These changes can be found at different ecological (species to
ecosystem) and social (individual to community) levels, can
vary over space and time, and can be either positive or negative.
 4. IMPACT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONT…….

I. Direct impacts refer to changes in environmental components that

result from direct cause-effect consequences of interactions between
the environment and project activities.
II. Indirect impacts result from cause-effect consequences of interactions
between the environment and direct impacts. For example, the effect of
pollution may not only be seen directly in the loss of local vegetation,
but indirectly as a degeneration of the health, culture and social
structure of local people.
III.Cumulative impacts refer to the accumulation of changes to the
environment caused by human activities (e.g. past, existing and
proposed activities, including activities associated with the project
under assessment).
 4. IMPACT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONT…….
What should be considered when assessing cumulative impacts?
Some key issues to be considered when assessing cumulative
impacts associated with the project:
focus should be on valued ecological components, including sensitive
areas;
spatial boundaries should be defined with respect to valued ecological
components;
temporal boundaries will vary with projected life span of project impacts;
assessment should be kept at reasonable and manageable levels
 4. IMPACT AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONT…….

Stages of impact analysis

Impact identification
 The impact identification has been subject of a large number of proposed
methods and techniques.
 These have often been called EIA techniques and have often been considered
(or misinterpreted) to constitute the complete EIA.
 This has spread the view that EIA is a technical exercise and that the purpose
of an EIA could be satisfied by using one or more of the techniques in a
mechanical manner.
 However, the methods constitute useful aids in the identification of impacts in
a structured and systematic way.
 The task of making decisions about the possible impacts and their importance
still lies with the assessor.
 IMPACT IDENTIFICATION cont…….

A number of ‘tools’ are available to assist in impact identification.

The simplest, and most frequently used, are checklists of impacts, although
matrices, network diagrams and map overlays are also commonly used.
More complex tools, such as mathematical modelling and the use of GIS systems,
may also be used in certain circumstances.

1. Checklists
Simple checklists - the simplest types of checklists provide lists of
potential impacts. These are designed to help practitioners to avoid
overlooking potential impacts
 Examples of Simple checklist
• Effects on human beings, buildings and man-made features •
 Population changes arising from the development, and consequential environment effects;
 Visual effects of the development on the surrounding area and landscape;
 Levels and effects of emissions from the development during normal operations;
 Levels and effects of noise from the development;
 Effects on the development on local roads and transport;
 Effects of the development on architectural and historic heritage and archaeological features.
 Effects on flora, fauna and geology
 Loss of, and damage to, habitats and plant and animal species
 Loss of, and damage to geological, palaeontological and physiographic features.
 Other ecological consequences
 Effects on land
 Physical effects of the development
 Effects of chemical emissions and deposits on soil of site and surrounding land
 2. Matrices
 Matrices are another commonly used tool for impact identification.
 They show environmental components (e.g. species diversity, water
quality) on one axis and development actions (e.g. clearing land,
construction, and operation) on the other.
 The entries in the cell of the matrix can either be qualitative or
quantitative estimates of impact.
 Matrices are useful for the following reasons: •
 they visually describe the relationship between two sets of factors;
 they can be expanded or contracted to meet the needs of the proposal being assessed;
 they can help to identify the impacts of different phases of a project, such as during
construction, operation and after abandonment; and
 they can help separate site-specific impacts from impacts affecting the region as a
whole; however, it is generally advisable to describe different aspects of a proposal using
separate matrices.
 Examples of Simple checklist cont….
S/N Activity Impact
1 Land clearance, bulldozing  visual intrusion, acceleration of run-off, dust, noise, diesel fumes,
soil erosion, soil compaction, exposure of sub-soil, silt to river,
destruction of vegetation
2 Stone crushing  dust, noise, soil erosion, silt and stones to river, lethal hazard to
workers
3 Traffic  oily waste run-off, noise, hazard to pedestrians and animals, dust to
roadside
4 Impoundment of the head point  inundation of swamp, loss of wetland vegetation, loss of habitat for
wildlife especially passerine birds; desiccation of the riverbed
between the headrace and tailrace, alteration of the aquatic and
riparian ecology, scoring of riverbed downstream - changing the
environment for aquatic life
5 Road making, trenching  noise, visual intrusion, dust, fumes, hard surfacing causing
alteration of drainage, acceleration of run-off and reduced
infiltration, soil erosion, soil compaction, exposure of sub soil, silt
to river, contamination of groundwater.
3. Network Diagrams

 Network diagram visually describes the linkage between pairs of environmental factors, providing some indication of how an
ecosystem functions.
 These types of methods are referred to in several ways within the EIA practices: for example, as impact trees, impact chains,
cause-effect diagrams, or consequence diagrams.
4. Map overlays
 Map overlays provide an effective visual aid, and are useful for describing existing
physical, social and economic conditions and displaying the potential changes resulting
from a proposed development.
 They are also very easy to use and understand.
 Overlays are particularly useful when addressing questions of site and route selections.
5. Geographic information system (GIS)
 In the strictest sense any organized system for the management and manipulation of
spatial information may be regarded as constituting a GIS.
 However, the tern GIS is generally used to refer to a computer based system
incorporating the collection, storage, retrieval, transformation and display of spatial data.
 6. Delphi Technique - Subjective Judgment Method

 Delphi methods are used to make forecasts or "best estimates" of

phenomena which are inherently very difficult to predict.
 The first uses were for anticipating advanced technological
change in the US, but the technique is very applicable to
complex environmental systems.
 Selected experts make independent, anonymous judgments on -
e.g. the degree and duration of environmental impacts such as
nuclear radiation or agro-chemical pollution.
 4.2. Impact Prediction (Principles and Approach)
 Impact prediction:
is a process designed to identify the magnitude of potential impacts and provides
the basis for the assessment of significance.
 This phase of an EIA will require good management of a wide range of technical specialists with
particular emphasis on:
• Prediction methods;
• Interpretation of predictions, with and without mitigating measures;
• Assessment of comparisons.
 The objective of prediction is to estimate the magnitude, extent and duration of the impact in
comparison with the situation without that project/action.
 An environmental impact prediction should, at minimum, perform the following:
Determine the initial reference or base line state (i.e. conditions/levels
prior to project)
Forecast the future state/conditions with and without the project and
Compare with environmental standards and guidelines where appropriate.
 Impact magnitude
 Impact magnitude relates to the severity of the impact, whether the impact is
irreversible or reversible and the potential rate recovery from the impact.
 For instance, the magnitude of the impact is considered high if a major adverse
impact cannot be mitigated.
 Extent of impact
 The spatial extent of the zone of influence of the impact should always be
determined.
 An impact can be site specific or limited to the project area, a locally occurring
impact within the watershed of the proposed project; a regional impact that may
extend beyond the watershed and national affecting resources on a national scale.
 Impact duration
 Environmental impacts have a temporal dimension that need to be considered in an
EIA.
 Impacts occur at different phases of the project cycle may need to be considered.
Methods
 There are many potential methods to predict impacts, some being more holistic than
others.
Mathematical modeling
 Mathematical model generally incorporate detailed mathematical representations
of key processes and interactions present in the system under study.
 For example, in the case of water the types of mathematical models available
include:
 Downstream dispersion of pollutants
 Heated effluents
 Water quality
 Dissolved oxygen demand (DOD)
 Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD)
 Reservoir quality
Managing uncertainty
 Uncertainty of prediction: this is important at the data collection stage
and the final certainty will only be resolved once implementation
commences. Research can reduce the uncertainty;
 Uncertainty of values: this reflects the approach taken in the EIA
process. Final certainty will be determined at the time decisions
are made. Improved communications and extensive negotiations
should reduce this uncertainty;
 Uncertainty of related decision: this affects the decision making
element of the EIA process and final certainty will be determined
by post evaluation. Improved coordination will reduce uncertainty.
 4.3. Impact Evaluation(Principles and Approach)
 Impact evaluation: is a process that helps assess the relative significance of
impacts.
 The ‘valuation’ step is the attempt to place comparative values on the effects.
 This involves assigning some kind of standardized values to the impacts, or
reducing them to numeracies, so that they can be more easily compared.
 The numeracies need not necessarily be a monetary value; it could be measures
of social welfare, food units, or energy units.
Having predicted the impacts, there is used to assess their relative significance.
 Criteria for significance include:
 The magnitude and the likely hood of the impact and its spatial and temporal
extent;
 The likely degree of recovery of the affected environment;
 The value the affected environment
 The level of public concern and
 4.4. Impact significance

 Evaluating the significance of environmental impacts is one of the most critical

components of impact assessment.
 The interpretation of significance bears directly on project approvals and
condition setting.
 At an early stage, it also enters into screening and scoping decisions on what
level of assessment is required and which impacts and issues will be addressed.
 Subsequently, impact significance provides the key to selecting alternatives.
 In sum, the attribution of significance continues throughout the EIA process,
from scoping to EIS review in a gradually narrowing ‘cone of resolution ‘in
which one stage sets up the next.
Two main evaluation methods can be distinguished:
 Cost benefits analysis (CBA). A single evaluation criterion is considered: money.
 Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods.
 Sample Question
1. What is included in an Impact assessment?
A. a detailed assessment of the planned project and selected alternatives compared to the
baseline conditions
B. Qualitative descriptions measuring high, medium and low impacts
C. Quantitative descriptions such as indicating the cubic metres of water withdrawn,
sewage
produced, and pollutants released
D. All
2. True or False? Impact assessment is done for the planned project and
the identified alternatives.
3. What is the difference between impact and effect EIA?
• impacts are defined as the changes resulting from an action, and
effects are defined as the consequences of impacts.
4. What are the different types of impacts in environmental impact
assessment?
• Types of Environmental Impacts: Direct , Indirect , Cumulative and
Induced Impact.
5. . ……………….. Is the increasing of changes to the environment caused by human
activities.
A. Cumulative impact
B. Direct impact
C. Indirect impact
D. B and C are correct
6. Of the following key issues to be considered when assessing cumulative impacts
associated with the project one is not correct.
A. Focused on sensitive area
B. Assessment should be at reasonable and manageable level
C. Focuses on the temporal and spatial boundaries
D. Focuses on only the profitability of the project