Hypothesis Testing

By
Dr M Rajanikanth
 Hypothesis testing
 Hypothesis testing or
significance testing is a
method for testing a
claim or hypothesis about
a parameter in a
population, using data
measured in a sample.
 In this method, we test
some hypothesis by
determining the
likelihood that a sample
statistic could have been
selected, if the hypothesis
regarding the population
parameter were true.
 Hypothesis testing
 The method in which we select samples to learn more
about characteristics in a given population is called
hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing is really a
systematic way to test claims or ideas about a group or
population. For Example; suppose you read an article
stating that children in India watch an average of 3 hours
of TV per day. To test whether this claim is true, you
record the time (in hours) that a group of 20 children (the
sample), among all children in the India (the population),
watch TV. The mean you measure for these 20 children is
a sample mean. you can then compare the sample mean
you select to the population mean stated in the article

 The goal of hypothesis testing is to determine the

likelihood that a population parameter, such as the mean,
is likely to be true
 FOUR STEPS TO HYPOTHESIS
TESTING
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 State the hypotheses
 We begin by stating the value of a population mean in a
null hypothesis, which we presume is true.
 This is a starting point so that we can decide whether
this is likely to be true, similar to the presumption of
innocence in a courtroom.
 When a defendant is on trial, the jury starts by assuming
that the defendant is innocent.
 The basis of the decision is to determine whether this
assumption is true.
 Likewise, in hypothesis testing, we start by assuming
that the hypothesis or claim we are testing is true. This
is stated in the null hypothesis.
 Keep in mind that the only reason we are testing the null
hypothesis is because we think it is wrong. We state
what we think is wrong about the null hypothesis in an
alternative hypothesis.
 State the hypotheses
 In a courtroom, since the defendant is
assumed to be innocent (this is the null
hypothesis so to speak), the burden is on a
prosecutor to conduct a trial to show
evidence that the defendant is not innocent.
 In a similar way, we assume the null
hypothesis is true, placing the burden on the
researcher to conduct a study to show
evidence that the null hypothesis is unlikely
to be true.
 Regardless, we always make a decision about
the null hypothesis (that it is likely or
unlikely to be true)
 State the hypotheses
 The null hypothesis (H0), stated as the null, is a statement about a
population parameter, such as the population mean, that is assumed
to be true. The null hypothesis is a starting point. We will test
whether the value stated in the null hypothesis is likely to be true.
 An alternative hypothesis (H1) is a statement that directly
contradicts a null hypothesis by stating that that the actual value of a
population parameter is less than, greater than, or not equal to the
value stated in the null hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis states
what we think is wrong about the null hypothesis, which is needed for
Step 2
Level of significance
 Level of significance, or significance
level, refers to a criterion of judgment
upon which a decision is made
regarding the value stated in a null
hypothesis. The criterion is based on
the probability of obtaining a statistic
measured in a sample if the value
stated in the null hypothesis were
true.
 In behavioral science, the criterion or
level of significance is typically set at
5%. When the probability of obtaining
a sample mean is less than 5% if the
null hypothesis were true, then we
reject the value stated in the null
hypothesis.
 The alternative hypothesis determines
whether to place the level of
significance in one or both tails of a
Level of significance
 Compute the test
statistic
 The test statistic is a mathematical formula that
allows researchers to determine the likelihood of
obtaining sample outcomes if the null hypothesis
were true.
 The value of the test statistic is used to make a
decision regarding the null hypothesis.
 Specifically, a test statistic tells us how far, or
how many standard deviations, a sample mean is
from the population mean.
 The larger the value of the test statistic, the
further the distance, or number of standard
deviations, a sample mean is from the population
mean stated in the null hypothesis.
 The value of the test statistic is used to make a
decision
 Make a decision
 We use the value of the test statistic to make a
decision about the null hypothesis.
 The decision is based on the probability of
obtaining a sample mean, given that the value
stated in the null hypothesis is true.
 If the probability of obtaining a sample mean
is less than 5% when the null hypothesis is
true, then the decision is to reject the null
hypothesis.
 If the probability of obtaining a sample mean
is greater than 5% when the null hypothesis is
true, then the decision is to retain the null
hypothesis.
 Make a decision
There are two decisions a researcher
can make:
Reject the null hypothesis: The
sample mean is associated with a
low proba­bility of occurrence when
the null hypothesis is true.
Retain the null hypothesis: The
sample mean is associated with a
high proba­bility of occurrence
when the null hypothesis is true.
TYPES OF ERROR
 Hypothesis testing
The logic of hypothesis testing is rooted in an understanding of
the sampling distribution of the mean.
1. The sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the population
mean.
 On average, a randomly selected sample will have a mean
equal to that in the population.
 In hypothesis testing, we begin by stating the null hypothesis.
 We expect that, if the null hypothesis is true, then a random
sample selected from a given population will have a sample
mean equal to the value stated in the null hypothesis.
2. Regardless of the distribution in the population, the sampling
distribution of the sample mean is normally distributed.
 Hence, the probabilities of all other possible sample means we
could select are normally distributed.
 Using this distribution, we can therefore state an alternative
hypothesis to locate the probability of obtaining sample means
with less than a 5% chance of being selected if the value stated
in the null hypothesis is true.
One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Tests

 Two-Tailed Test is that where the

hypothesis about the population
parameter is rejected for the
value of sample statistic failing
into either tail of the
distribution (fig 3)
 When the hypothesis about the
population parameter is
rejected for the value of sample
statistic failing into one side tail
of the distribution, then it is
known as one-tailed test. If the
rejection area falls on the right
side, then it is called right-
tailed test (fig 2)
 On the other hand If the
rejection area falls on the right
side, then it is called left-tailed
test (fig 1)
 Notations Used for Population,
Sample and Sampling distribution
Key differences between population,
sample, and sampling distributions
THANK YOU