PROBABILITY
GRADE 12
UNIVERSITY ENROLMENT AND COURSE COMPLETION
● Scenario: At a university in Abu Dhabi, 1,200
students were enrolled in various programs. Among
them, 500 were in engineering. Of those in
engineering, 300 completed their courses. Among
the 700 students not in engineering, 200 completed
their courses.
•
● Question: What is the probability that a student
completed their courses given that they are in the
engineering program?
JOT THOUGHTS
• Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In
box I, both coins are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in
box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at
random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the
probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold?
TASK 1 :
• Research how Bayes’ theorem used in Weather Forecasting. Create a
short multimedia presentation to share with the class, including
examples and applications.
• Upload it in Teams
TASK 2
• Write a report (using Google Docs or Word) on the use
Bayes’ theorem in Medical Diagnosis. Use real-life data and
present your calculations and conclusions.
TASK-3
• In Global Village, Dubai , Yeman stall, 30 tin natural honey and 40 tin
adulterated honey are kept for sale while in Turkey stall, 50 tin natural
honey and 60 tin adulterated honey are there. One tin of honey is
purchased from one of the stalls randomly and it is found to be
adulterated. Calculate the probability that it is purchased from Turkey
Stall
Upload it in Teams
TASK -4
• Spam Detection in Emails
• Scenario: A machine learning model is trained to detect spam emails. Based on
previous data, 5% of emails are classified as spam. When an email is actually spam,
the model correctly identifies it as spam 98% of the time. However, 1% of non-spam
emails are also falsely classified as spam by the model.
• Question: If an email is classified as spam by the model, what is
the probability that it is truly spam?
TASK - 5
• Object Recognition in Security Footage
● Scenario: In a security AI system monitoring an area, 0.5% of
detected objects are known to be potential threats (e.g., unauthorized
individuals). The system has a 96% detection rate for potential
threats and a 3% false alarm rate.
● Question: If the system flags an object as a threat, what is the
probability that it is an actual threat?
TASK - 6
• Dubai insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are accident prone and
those who are not. The company’s statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident sometime within
a fixed one-year period with probability 0.6, whereas this probability is 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone. The
company knows that 20 percent of the population is accident prone.
• Assume that E1 is the policy holder is accident prone and E2 is the policy holder.
• E is the new policy holder who has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy.
• OBSERVATIONS
• i) Probability that the new policy holder who has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy.
•
• ii) Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. The probability
that he or she is accident prone.
• Upload it in a shared Teams.
TASK -7
• Al Rawabi factory in UAE has two machines A and B. Past record shows that
machine A produced 60% of the items of output and machine B produced 40% of
the items. Further,2% of the items produced by machine A and 1% produced by
machine B were defective. All the items are put into one stockpile and then one item
is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability
that it was produced by machine B?
• Upload it in a shared TEAMS.
TASK - 8
• Digital Collage or Infographic Board with Applications
● Create digital collage that visually connects Bayes'
theorem with real-life devices and applications. (eg
Face Recognition on Smartphones and Security
Systems)
• Upload it in Teams
EXTENSION
• Airport Security Screening
● Scenario: At an airport, 1% of passengers are found to be carrying
prohibited items. The security screening process has a 95% true
positive rate (correctly identifying someone with a prohibited item)
and a 5% false positive rate (incorrectly identifying someone
without a prohibited item).
● Question: If a passenger is flagged by the security screening, what
is the probability that they are actually carrying a prohibited item?
