Hypothesis Tests

Chapter 9

Slide
1
 Overview

Developing Null and Alternative

Hypotheses

Type I and Type II Errors

Population Mean: s Known

Population Mean: s Unknown

Population Proportion

Slide
2
 Hypothesis Testing

 Hypothesis testing can be used to determine wheth

a statement about the value of a population param
should or should not be rejected.
 The null hypothesis, denoted by H0 , is a tentative
assumption about a population parameter.
 The alternative hypothesis, denoted by Ha, is the
opposite of what is stated in the null hypothesis.
 The hypothesis testing procedure uses data from a
sample to test the two competing statements
indicated by H0 and Ha.

Slide
3
Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses

Slide
4
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
• It is not always obvious how the null and alternative
hypotheses should be formulated.
• Care must be taken to structure the hypotheses
appropriately so that the test conclusion provides
the information the researcher wants.
• The context of the situation is very important in
determining how the hypotheses should be stated.
• In some cases it is easier to identify the alternative
hypothesis first. In other cases the null is easier.
• Correct hypothesis formulation will take practice.

Slide
5
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
 Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
• Many applications of hypothesis testing involve
an attempt to gather evidence in support of a
research hypothesis.
• In such cases, it is often best to begin with the
alternative hypothesis and make it the conclusion
that the researcher hopes to support.
• The conclusion that the research hypothesis is tru
is made if the sample data provide sufficient
evidence to show that the null hypothesis can be
rejected.

Slide
6
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
 Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
• Example:
A new teaching method is developed that is
believed to be better than the current method.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The new teaching method is better.
• Null Hypothesis:
The new method is no better than the old method

Slide
7
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
 Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
• Example:
A new sales force bonus plan is developed in an
attempt to increase sales.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The new bonus plan increase sales.
• Null Hypothesis:
The new bonus plan does not increase sales.

Slide
8
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
 Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis
• Example:
A new drug is developed with the goal of lowering
blood pressure more than the existing drug.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The new drug lowers blood pressure more than
the existing drug.
• Null Hypothesis:
The new drug does not lower blood pressure mor
than the existing drug.

Slide
9
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
 Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be
•Challenged
We might begin with a belief or assumption that
a statement about the value of a population
parameter is true.
• We then using a hypothesis test to challenge the
assumption and determine if there is statistical
evidence to conclude that the assumption is
incorrect.
• In these situations, it is helpful to develop the nul
hypothesis first.

Slide
10
 Developing Null and Alternative
Hypotheses
 Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to be
•Challenged
Example:
The label on a soft drink bottle states that it
contains 67.6 fluid ounces.
• Null Hypothesis:
The label is correct. m > 67.6 ounces.
• Alternative Hypothesis:
The label is incorrect. m < 67.6 ounces.

Slide
11
 Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses about a
Population Mean
 The equality part of the hypotheses always appears
in the null hypothesis.
 In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population mean  must take one of the following
three forms (where 0 is the hypothesized value of
the population mean).

H 0:    0 H 0:    0 H 0:    0
H a:   0 H a:   0 H a:   0

One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

(lower-tail) (upper-tail)

Slide
12
 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

 Example: Metro EMS

A major west coast city provides one of
the most
comprehensive emergency medical services
in the
world. Operating in a multiple hospital
system
with approximately 20 mobile medical units,
the The director of medical services wants to
service goal
formulate is to respond
a hypothesis to that
test medical
could use a
emergencies
sample
with a mean time of 12 minutes or less.
of emergency response times to determine
whether
or not the service goal of 12 minutes or less
is being Slide
13
achieved.
 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The emergency service is meeting

H0: 
the response goal; no follow-up
action is necessary.

The emergency service is not

Ha:
meeting the response goal;
appropriate follow-up action is
necessary.

where:  = mean response time for the population

of medical emergency requests

Slide
14
Type I and Type II Errors

Slide
15
 Type I Error

 Because hypothesis tests are based on sample data

we must allow for the possibility of errors.
 A Type I error is rejecting H0 when it is true.
 The probability of making a Type I error when the
null hypothesis is true as an equality is called the
level of significance.
 Applications of hypothesis testing that only control
the Type I error are often called significance tests.

Slide
16
 Type II Error

 A Type II error is accepting H0 when it is false.

 It is difficult to control for the probability of making
a Type II error.
 Statisticians avoid the risk of making a Type II
error by using “do not reject H0” and not “accept H

Slide
17
 Type I and Type II Errors

Population Condition

H0 True H0 False
Conclusion (m < 12) (m > 12)

Accept H0 Correct
Type II Error
(Conclude m < 12) Decision

Reject H0 Correct
Type I Error Decision
(Conclude m > 12)

Slide
18
Type I and Type II Errors

Slide
19
Population Mean: s Known

Slide
20
 p-Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 The p-value is the probability, computed using the
test statistic, that measures the support (or lack of
support) provided by the sample for the null
hypothesis.
 If the p-value is less than or equal to the level of
significance , the value of the test statistic is in th
rejection region.
 Reject H0 if the p-value <  .

Slide
21
 Suggested Guidelines for Interpreting p-
Values
 Less than .01
Overwhelming evidence to conclude Ha is true.
 Between .01 and .05
Strong evidence to conclude Ha is true.
 Between .05 and .10
Weak evidence to conclude Ha is true.
 Greater than .10
Insufficient evidence to conclude Ha is true.

Slide
22
 Lower-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
s Known
 p-Value Approach p-Value < a ,
so reject H0.

a = .10 Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
/ n
p-value
72

z
z = -za = 0
-1.46 -1.28
Slide
23
 Upper-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
s Known p-Value < a ,
 p-Value Approach
so reject H0.
Sampling
distribution a = .04
x  0
of z 
/ n

p-Value
11

z
0 za = z=
1.75 2.29
Slide
24
 Critical Value Approach to
One-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 The test statistic z has a standard normal probability
distribution.
 We can use the standard normal probability
distribution table to find the z-value with an
area
of a inofthe
 The value thelower (or upper)
test statistic tail
that of the
established the
distribution.
boundary of the rejection region is called the
critical value for the test.
 The rejection rule is:
• Lower tail: Reject H0 if z < -z
• Upper tail: Reject H0 if z > z

Slide
25
 Lower-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
s Known
 Critical Value Approach

Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
Reject H0 / n

a 1
Do Not Reject H0

z
-za = -1.28 0

Slide
26
 Upper-Tailed Test About a Population
Mean:
s Known
 Critical Value Approach

Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
/ n Reject H0


Do Not Reject H0

z
0 za = 1.645

Slide
27
 Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Step 1. Develop the null and alternative hypotheses.

Step 2. Specify the level of significance .
Step 3. Collect the sample data and compute
the value of the test statistic.

p-Value Approach
4. Use the value of the test statistic to compute the
p-value.
Step 5. Reject H0 if p-value < a.

Slide
28
 Steps of Hypothesis Testing

Critical Value Approach

Step 4. Use the level of significanceto
determine the critical value and the
rejection rule.
Step 5. Use the value of the test statistic and the
rejection
rule to determine whether to reject H0.

Slide
29
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 Example: Metro EMS
The response times for a random sample
of 40
medical emergencies were tabulated. The
sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population
The EMS director wants to perform a
standard
hypothesis
deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes.
test, with a .05 level of significance, to
determine
whether the service goal of 12 minutes or less
is
being achieved.

Slide
30
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 p -Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Develop the hypotheses.H0: 

Ha:

2. Specify the level of significance.a = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

x   13.25 12
z   2.47
 / n 3.2/ 40

Slide
31
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

For z = 2.47, cumulative probability = .9932.
p–value = 1 - .9932 = .0068

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .0068 < a = .05, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical
evidence
to infer that Metro EMS is not
meeting
the response goal of 12 minutes. Slide
32
One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 p –Value Approach
Sampling
distribution a = .05
x  0
of z 
/ n

p-value


z
0 za = z=
1.645 2.47
Slide
33
 One-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For a = .05, z.05 = 1.645

Reject H0 if z > 1.645

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 2.47 > 1.645, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical
evidence
to infer that Metro EMS is not
meeting
the response goal of 12 minutes. Slide
34
 p-Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 Compute the p-value using the following three step
1. Compute the value of the test statistic z.
2. If z is in the upper tail (z > 0), compute the
probability that z is greater than or equal to the
value of the test statistic. If z is in the lower tail
(z < 0), compute the probability that z is less than o
equal to the value of the test statistic.
3. Double the tail area obtained in step 2 to obtain
the p –value.
 The rejection rule:
Reject H0 if the p-value <  .

Slide
35
 Critical Value Approach to
Two-Tailed Hypothesis Testing
 The critical values will occur in both the lower and
upper tails of the standard normal curve.
 Use the standard normal probability
distribution
table to find z/2 (the z-value with an area of
 aThe
/2 inrejection rule is:
the upper tailHofifthe
Reject z <distribution).
-z/2 or z > z/2.
0

Slide
36
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 Example: Glow Toothpaste
The production line for Glow toothpaste is
designed to fill tubes with a mean weight of 6
oz.
Periodically, a sample of 30 tubes will be
selected in
Quality
order assurance
to check procedures
the filling process. call for the
continuation of the filling process if the
sample
results are consistent with the assumption
that the
mean filling weight for the population of
toothpaste
tubes is 6 oz.; otherwise the process will be
adjusted.
Slide
37
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 Example: Glow Toothpaste
Assume that a sample of 30 toothpaste
tubes
provides a sample mean of 6.1 oz. The
population
Perform a hypothesis test, at the .03 level
standard deviation is believed to be 0.2 oz.
of
significance, to help determine whether the
filling
process should continue operating or be
stopped and
corrected.

Slide
38
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Determine the hypotheses.H0: = 6

H :  6
a

a = .03
2. Specify the level of significance.

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

x  0 6.1 6
z   2.74
 / n .2/ 30

Slide
39
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

For z = 2.74, cumulative probability = .9969
p–value = 2(1 - .9969) = .0062

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .0062 < a = .03, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to
infer that the alternative hypothesis is
true
(i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6
ounces). Slide
40
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 p-Value Approach

1/2 1/2
p -value p -value
= .0031 = .0031

a/2 = a/2 =
.015 .015

z
z = -2.74 0 z = 2.74
-za/2 = -2.17 za/2 = 2.17

Slide
41
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For a/2 = .03/2 = .015, z.015 = 2.17

Reject H0 if z < -2.17 or z > 2.17

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 2.74 > 2.17, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to
infer that the alternative hypothesis is
true
(i.e. the mean filling weight is not 6
ounces). Slide
42
 Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean:
s Known
 Critical Value Approach

Sampling
distribution
x  0
of z 
/ n

Reject H0 Do Not Reject H0 Reject H0

a/2 = .015 a/2 = .015

z
-2.17 0 2.17

Slide
43
 Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
 Select a simple random sample from the population
x
and use the value of the sample mean to develop
the confidence interval for the population mean .
(Confidence intervals are covered in Chapter 8.)
 If the confidence interval contains the hypothesized
value 0, do not reject H0. Otherwise, reject H0.
(Actually, H0 should be rejected if 0 happens to be
equal to one of the end points of the confidence
interval.)

Slide
44
 Confidence Interval Approach to
Two-Tailed Tests About a Population Mean
The 97% confidence interval for  is

x z / 2 6.1 2.17(.2 30) 6.1 .07924
n
or 6.02076 to 6.17924
Because the hypothesized value for the
population mean, 0 = 6, is not in this interval,
the hypothesis-testing conclusion is that the
null hypothesis, H0:  = 6, can be rejected.

Slide
45
Population Mean: s Unknown

Slide
46
 Tests About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
 Test Statistic

x  0
t
s/ n

This test statistic has a t distribution

with n - 1 degrees of freedom.

Slide
47
 Tests About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
 Rejection Rule: p -Value Approach
Reject H0 if p –value < a
 Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0:  Reject H0 if t < -t

H0:  Reject H0 if t > t

H0:  Reject H0 if t < - t or t > t

Slide
48
 p -Values and the t Distribution

 The format of the t distribution table provided in mo

statistics textbooks does not have sufficient detail
to determine the exact p-value for a hypothesis tes
 However, we can still use the t distribution table to
identify a range for the p-value.
 An advantage of computer software packages is tha
the computer output will provide the p-value for the
t distribution.

Slide
49
 Example: Highway Patrol

 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean: s

Unknown
A State Highway Patrol periodically
samples
vehicle speeds at various locations on a
particular
roadway. The sample of vehicle speeds is
The
used to locations where H0 is rejected are
deemed
test the
the hypothesis H0: m < 65.
best locations for radar traps. At Location F, a
sample of 64 vehicles shows a mean speed of
66.2
mph with a standard deviation of 4.2 mph.
Use a
= .05 to test the hypothesis. Slide
50
 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Determine the hypotheses.H0:  < 65

Ha: m > 65

2. Specify the level of significance.a = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

x  0 66.2  65
t   2.286
s/ n 4.2/ 64

Slide
51
 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
 p –Value Approach

4. Compute the p –value.

For t = 2.286, the p–value must be less than .025
(for t = 1.998) and greater than .01 (for t = 2.387).
.01 < p–value < .025

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value < a = .05, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the mean
speed
of vehicles at Location F is greater than 65
mph. Slide
52
 One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the critical value and rejection rule.

For a = .05 and d.f. = 64 – 1 = 63, t.05 = 1.669

Reject H0 if t > 1.669

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 2.286 > 1.669, we reject H0.
We are at least 95% confident that the mean
speed of vehicles at Location F is greater
than 65 mph. Location F is a good candidate
for a radar trap.
Slide
53
One-Tailed Test About a Population Mean:
s Unknown

Reject H0

Do Not Reject H0 

t
0 ta =
1.669

Slide
54
 A Summary of Forms for Null and
Alternative Hypotheses About a
Population Proportion
 The equality part of the hypotheses always appear
in the null hypothesis.
 In general, a hypothesis test about the value of a
population proportion p must take one of the
following three forms (where p0 is the hypothesized
value of the population proportion).

H0: p > p0 H0: p < p0 H0: p = p0

Ha: p < p0 Ha: p > p0 Ha: p ≠ p0

One-tailed One-tailed Two-tailed

(lower tail) (upper tail)

Slide
55
Population Proportion

Slide
56
 Tests About a Population Proportion

 Test Statistic
p  p0
z
p

where:

p0 (1  p0 )
p 
n

assuming np > 5 and n(1 – p) > 5

Slide
57
 Tests About a Population Proportion

 Rejection Rule: p –Value Approach

Reject H0 if p –value < a
 Rejection Rule: Critical Value Approach
H0: pp Reject H0 if z > z

H0: pp Reject H0 if z < -z

H0: ppReject H0 if z < -z or z > z

Slide
58
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 Example: National Safety Council
(NSC)
For a Christmas and New Year’s week, the
National Safety Council estimated that 500
people
would be killed and 25,000 injured on the
nation’s
roads. The NSC claimed that 50% of the
A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67
accidents
were
would be caused by drunk driving.
caused by drunk driving. Use these data to
test the
NSC’s claim with a = .05.

Slide
59
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 p –Value and Critical Value Approaches

1. Determine the hypotheses. H 0: p .5

H a: p .5

2. Specify the level of significance.a = .05

3. Compute the value of the test statistic.

p0(1 p0 ) .5(1 .5)

p   .045644
a common n 120
error is
pusing p  p0 (67/ 120)  .5
z   1.28
in this p .045644
formula
Slide
60
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 p-Value Approach

4. Compute the p -value.

For z = 1.28, cumulative probability = .8997
p–value = 2(1 - .8997) = .2006

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because p–value = .2006 > a = .05, we cannot reject H0

Slide
61
 Two-Tailed Test About a
Population Proportion
 Critical Value Approach

4. Determine the criticals value and

rejection rule.
For a/2 = .05/2 = .025, z.025 = 1.96
Reject H0 if z < -1.96 or z > 1.96

5. Determine whether to reject H0.

Because 1.278 > -1.96 and < 1.96, we cannot reject H0.

Slide
62