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Data Analytics- Lecture#8-Spring 24

The document is a lecture on Bayesian Networks, focusing on their role in discovering causal relationships and managing uncertainty in dynamic environments. It explains the structure and computational architecture of Bayesian Networks, highlighting their applications in diagnosis, prediction, classification, and decision-making. The lecture emphasizes the benefits of combining expert knowledge with data for efficient representation and inference.

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Usama Riaz
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13 views23 pages

Data Analytics- Lecture#8-Spring 24

The document is a lecture on Bayesian Networks, focusing on their role in discovering causal relationships and managing uncertainty in dynamic environments. It explains the structure and computational architecture of Bayesian Networks, highlighting their applications in diagnosis, prediction, classification, and decision-making. The lecture emphasizes the benefits of combining expert knowledge with data for efficient representation and inference.

Uploaded by

Usama Riaz
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecture#8

Data Analytics MS(DEIM)


Spring Semester 2024
“Introduction to Bayesian Network”

1
Discovering Causal Relationship from the Dynamic
Environmental Data and Managing Uncertainty - are
among the basic abilities of an intelligent agent

Causal network
beliefs
with Uncertainty

Dynamic
Environment

2
Probability of an event

3
Conditional probability

4
5
6
7
8
Conditional independence

9
The fundamental rule

10
Instance of “Fundamental rule”

11
12
Bayes rule

13
Bayes rule example (1)

No Cancer)

14
Bayes rule example (2)

15
What are Bayesian nets?
• Bayesian nets (BN) are a network-based framework for representing and
analyzing models involving uncertainty;

• BN are different from other knowledge-based systems tools because


uncertainty is handled in mathematically rigorous yet efficient and simple way

• BN are different from other probabilistic analysis tools because of network


representation of problems, use of Bayesian statistics, and the synergy between
these

16
Definition of a Bayesian Network

Knowledge structure:
• variables are nodes
• arcs represent probabilistic dependence between variables
• conditional probabilities encode the strength of the dependencies

Computational architecture:
• computes posterior probabilities given evidence about some nodes
• exploits probabilistic independence for efficient computation

17
P(S)
P(C|S)

P(S)

P(C|S)

18
19
20
21
What Bayesian Networks are good for?

 Diagnosis: P(cause|symptom)=?
cause
 Prediction: P(symptom|
cause)=?
 Classification:max C1 C2
P(class|
data) class
 Decision-making (given a cost function) sympto
m
Medicine
Speech Bio-
informatic
recognition s

Text
Classificatio Computer
Stock market
n
troubleshooting
22
Why learn Bayesian networks?

 Combining domain <9.7 0.6 8 14


18>
expert knowledge with <0.2 1.3 5 ?? ??
>
<1.3 2.8 ?? 0 1
data >
<?? 5.6 0 10 ??
 Efficient representation >
……………….

and inference

Incremental learning


Handling missing data: <1.3 2.8 ?? 0
1>

Learning causal S C
relationships:
23

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