Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Dr. Muhammad Afzaal
Director
Pakistan Meteorological Department
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Urbanization
Anthropogenic
Land use
Drivers of Climate Change
Aerosols
Greenhouse
Gases
Natural
Variability
Solar
Activity
Natural
Volcano
Land
Ocean
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3
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Climate Vulnerability in Pakistan
• Pakistan is very high on vulnerability scale
–135th in GHG Emissions
–5th most most affected nation by extreme weater events
(1999-2020) (Global Climate Risk Index 2021)
• Geographical Location
–Heat surplus zone
• Population
• Limited Capacity
• Infrastructure
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What does Pakistan Face?
Pakistan is historically prone to Extreme Weather Events/Disasters,
such as;
Heavy Rains/River Flooding Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Urban Flooding Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
GLOF/Snow-melt Flooding Extreme Heat in May/June
Cyclones/Coastal Flooding
Tropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon)
Droughts Deficient Rainfall (Winter & Monsoon)
Fog Dry and Extreme Winters (Nov-Dec)
In Pakistan, more than 70% High Impact Weathers (Extreme Weather
Events) are associated with Monsoon Season. Flash Floods, Floods &
Urban Floods are frequent High Impact Weathers in Pakistan 5
Source : World Bank , 2019
Mean
Annual &
Seasonal
Rainfall
Monsoon (JJAS) Winter (DJFM)
65% of Annual Rainfall 30% of Annual Rainfall
Pakistan’s Cryosphere Assets
Number of Area of Glaciers Volume of Ice Ranges
Glaciers (km2) (km3)
7259 11780 2066 Himalaya
Karakoram
Hindukush
Pakistan Annual Rainfall
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Pakistan Monsoon Rainfall
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Pakistan Temperature
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Pakistan Hot Days & Cold Nights
Hot Days Trends Cold Nights Trends
Annual 1961-2018 (days/decade) Annual 1961-2018 (days/decade)
Decreasing
Increasing
Contact : [email protected]
(21-06-2019) Contact : [email protected]
(21-06-2019)
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Sea level Rise
Sea level rise at Karachi is 2.01 millimeters per year and risen to
220.24 centimeters (7.97 inches) in past 100 years.
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Annual Mean Temperature (oC)1901-2019 - Pakistan
0.9 oC Warming in 119 years
Annual Mean Temperature (oC)1951-2020 - Pakistan
Annual Mean Precipitation (mm)1901-2019 - Pakistan
Large interannual variability
1.38 oC Warming in 120 years
Pakistan: Some Climate Impacts
Major floods in 2010 (20% land area under water) and 2012
The last five floods (2010-2014) have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45
million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres of crops destroyed (INDC)
2010 floods in Pakistan affected 4.5 million workers, two-thirds of whom were employed in agriculture, and over 70 percent of
farmers lost more than half of their expected income (FAO)
Agricultural sector growth dropped from 3.5% to 0.2% between 2009 and 2010 due to 2010 flood (FAO)
133 extreme weather events between 1996-2018 (Germanwatch’s Climate Risk Index 2020)
Extreme climate events between 1994 - 2013 have resulted in an average annual economic loss of almost US$ 4 billion (NDMA)
1200 people died in Karachi during unprecedented heat wave in 2015 (Pak INDC)
Severe urban storm flooding in Lahore, due to 500 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 12 July, 1996
History’s worst drought in Pakistan in 1998-2001
Severe cyclonic Storm hit the coastal areas of Pakistan and India in 1999.
621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during10 hours in July, 2001
Disastrous cyclone hit the coastal areas of Balochistan in July, 2007
Since 14 June 2022, floods in Pakistan have killed 1,717 people. The floods were caused by heavier
than usual monsoon rains and melting glaciers that followed a severe heat wave, all of which are
linked to climate change. It is the world's deadliest flood since the 2020 South Asian floods and
described as the worst in the country's history.
Devastating FLOOD (2022) in Pakistan: Exceptionally high
rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan
Flood Damages to Pakistan,
Pakistan Monsoon Flood 2022,
by Affected Provinces
Source: National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
Climate Change Context of Pakistan
The climate science community sources a suite of global climate models to help
decision makers understand the projections of future climate change and related
impacts, among the most widely used are the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the
IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
Key projected climate trends are summarized below:
Temperature
• Projected temperature increases in Pakistan are significantly higher than the global
average. The IPCC projects a global average temperature increase by 2081–2100 of
3.7°C under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) whilst the model ensemble
projects an average increase of 4.9°C for Pakistan in the same scenario.
• The projected rise in annual maximum temperatures is estimated at 5.24°C.
• Projected temperature increase in winter is more than that in summer.
Precipitation
• Great uncertainty surrounds projections of future precipitation rates in Pakistan
due to the models' weak performance simulating future changes in the South Asian
monsoon and dynamics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
RCP8.5 Precipitation Changes (%) 2011-2040
Historical Projected +4.3%
Normal -12.8% 180
170
4.5
160
150
4 140
130
3.5 120
110
100
3
90
-17.4%
80
2.5 70
60
2 50
40
30
1.5
1
+1.2% 20
10
0
-10
-20
0.5
-28.4%
-30
-40
0 -50
RCP8.5 TMAX Changes (°C) 2011-2040
Historical Projected +1.6°C
36
+1.6°C 2.2
35
34
33 2
32
31 1.8
30
29
28
27
26
+1.3°C +1.4°C
1.6
1.4
25
24
23 1.2
22
21
20 1
19
18
0.8
17
16 +1.2°C
15 0.6
RCP8.5 TMIN Changes (°C) 2011-2040
Historical Projected +1.8°C
Normal 23
21
+1.6°C 3.3
19
2.8
17
15 +1.4°C 2.3
+1.4°C
13
11 1.8
7 1.3
5
+1.4°C
3 0.8
CC Impacts: Water Sector
The supply of water is directly affected by weather and climate.
Next to the critical water input through precipitation at daily,
monthly and seasonal scales, also the loss through
evapotranspiration should be taken into consideration. Particularly
high temperatures, low humidity and high winds can efficiently
remove water from the land surface. Equally, the demand for water
is expected to evolve under climate change, particularly as they
relate to often rapidly changing demographic and economic
settings. These changes generally increase the operational
challenges and risk for the water sector.
CC Impacts: Water Sector
Precipitation: Seasonal
Variability
The graph shows projected change in Monthly Mean Precipitation per month by 2050
compared to the reference period (1986-2005) under all RCPs of CIMP5 ensemble
modeling. Positive values indicate that monthly rainfall will likely to increase compared
to the baseline, and vice versa. The shaded area represents the range between the 10th
and 90th percentile of all climate projections.
CC Impacts: Water Sector Precipitation: Time Series
The graph shows the recorded number of Days with Vey Heavy Rainfall (20mm/day) each
year for 1986-2005, and projected values for 2020-2100 under all RCPs of CIMP5 ensemble
modeling. Note, the shaded ranges illustrate the inter-model differences, here using the
+/- one standard deviation. The reason for using a narrower metric compared to the 10th
and 90th percentile is that the inter-model difference is large for precipitation, and in
particular for the count of days with rainfall.
CC Impacts: Water Sector
Drought: Spatial Variability
The map shows change in projected Annual Likelihood of Severe
Drought by 2050 compared to the reference period (1986-2005) under
RCP 8.5 of CIMP5 ensemble modeling. Brown/Yellow areas are more
likely to experience severe drought compared to the baseline period.
Meanwhile, Blue/Green areas are less likely to experience severe
drought.
CC Impacts: Agriculture Sector
The exposure of the irrigation, crops and
land management, livestock, rural
transport, and storage and processing to
climate variability and change increases at
the local and regional scale. Climate
change is enhancing the risks, acting as a
threat multiplier, particularly with regard
to the availability of water and the
changes in thermal environment. In many
places, climate change is expressing itself
through higher variations in moisture,
increase in dryness when dry, and increase
in wetness when wet.
CC Impacts: Agriculture Sector
Temperature: Seasonal Variability
The graph shows projected change in Monthly Mean of Daily Maximum Temperature by 2050
compared to the reference period (1986-2005) under all RCPs of CIMP5 ensemble modeling.
Positive values indicate that warmest daily maximum temperatures will likely to increase
compared to the baseline, and vice versa. The shaded area represents the range or spread
between 10th and 90th percentile of all analyzed models.
CC Impacts: Agriculture Sector
Precipitation: Spatial
Variability
The map shows change in projected Mean Annual Precipitation by 2050 compared to the
reference period (1986-2005) under RCP 8.5 of CIMP5 ensemble modeling. Blue/Green
areas are likely to receive more annual rainfall compared to the reference period and to
CC Impacts: Agriculture Sector
Precipitation: Time Series
The graph shows the recorded maximum number of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) per year for 1986-
2005, and projected maximum number of CDD for 2020-2100 under all RCPs of CIMP5 ensemble
modeling. Note, the shaded ranges (or model spread) illustrate the inter-model differences, here
using the +/- one standard deviation. The reason for using a narrower metric compared to the 10th
and 90th percentile is that the inter-model difference is large for precipitation, and in particular for
the count of days with rainfall.
CC Impacts: Agriculture Sector
Precipitation: Extreme
Events
The boxplot shows recorded Maximum Monthly Rainfall for 1986-2005 and
projected Maximum Monthly Rainfall 10-yr Return Level by 2050 under all RCPs
of CIMP5 ensemble modeling. This indicator focuses on the maximum monthly
rainfall amount that can be expected within a 10-yr period.
Key Adaptation Policies &
Reports
• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC),
2016
• Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Cha
nge Adaptation
, 2016
• National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy, 2013
• National Climate Change Policy, 2013
• First National Communication to the UNFCCC,
Adaptation Options for
Key Sectors
Agriculture Energy
• Construct houses on raised plinths. • Conduct detailed assessments
• Create floating vegetable gardens. and mapping of energy
• Use cages for fish culture and gabion spurs infrastructure and mechanisms
to deflect flooding. to prevent construction on low-
• Plant trees to stabilize hillsides. lying coastal areas.
• Improve breeds of goat to raise incomes. • Privatize utility companies and
• Garden vegetables to provide incomes for the development of renewable
women and regeneration of desert power generation.
vegetation. • Power sector reforms must lead
• Promote water tolerant seeds. the public enterprises reform
• Change cropping patterns to decrease program and inefficient power
growing season length due to increased plants should be offered
temperature. incentives to improve efficiency.
Adaptation Options for
Key Sectors
Coastal Zone
• While protective infrastructure, such as port
walls in urban areas in Pasni and stone Infrastructure
pitching in Gadni have already been built, a • Implement flood protection
comprehensive and geographically explicit measures to deal with future climate
vulnerability assessment is necessary in impacts.
order to develop a coordinated and • Build reservoirs in the Indus delta to
comprehensive coastal conservation plan. meet the water needs of the riparian
Urban forests and wetlands, and to
• The National Communication calls for a maintain water levels in the delta
comprehensive review of best practices for and mangroves.
urban water systems, followed by the • The National Communication urges
drafting and implementing of new that the construction of new
economic and structural policies that infrastructure must be approved by a
address water quality conservation flood management agency, and the
measures. establishment of major infrastructure
• There is a need to build public awareness near the coastline should be
on water conservation measures in order to discouraged.
