Climate Change

By Dev pratap Singh

Roll no 1121
Climate Change

Climate change: Abnormal Variation in Climate. Effect parts of

Earth(ice caps) over decades to millions of years.

Our Earth is warming. 1880 to 2012,

average global temperature up by 0.85°C.
By 2100, this increase will exceed 2°C
compared to 1850 to 1900.
Small changes in average temperature of
Earth lead to large and potentially
dangerous shifts in climate and weather

Climate The evidence is clear. Rising global temperatures + Changes in

change is weather and climate. Many places have seen:

Changes in rainfall, resulting in more floods,
happening droughts, or intense rain, as well as more
frequent and severe heat waves.
 Science of Climate Change

Increase in GHG
concentrations in the
atmosphere over the last 2,000
years

The Green house effect

 Assessment of global change in
temperature by IPCC
• Annual average Arctic sea ice has shrunk, with larger
Snow decreases observed each decade. Mountain glaciers
cover and snow cover have declined.

• There have been significant changes in precipitation patterns

Rain and globally. The area affected by drought is likely to have
drought increased since the 1970s.

• Over the past 50 years, cold days & nights, frosts have
A hotter become less frequent and hot days and hot nights,
Graphs compare world more frequent.
observed changes in
• An increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North
temperature (black lines)
Extreme Atlantic has been observed. Warm air is fuel for cyclones
with model results that
weather and hurricanes.
include only
natural climate forcings like • Spring events come earlier and plants and animals are
volcanic eruptions and moving upwards and pole wards because of recent
changes in solar energy Seasons warming trends.
(blue) and
• Scientists have observed climate-induced changes in at least
model results that use both
420 physical processes and biological species or
natural and human caused Nature communities.
climate forcings (pink).
 Climate change impacts for India
Expected climate change impacts for India Mapping vulnerability : climate
change in India

Changes in weather patterns

Cyclonic disturbances

Sea-level rise

Changes in agriculture yields

Changes in fresh water supply

Impacts on forests and natural ecosystems

Impacts on human health

Source :Expected effects (of expected climate change) for India: Source: Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors:
examples (INCCA 2010) climate change and globalization in India
 Risks to Ecosystems & People in India
•• Increased Incidence of Natural Calamities
• Increase in stress to human & other Life
SouSSouc
forms Himalayan
• Increased Probability of Trans-boundary Glacier melt –
issues Flows in Indus
and Ganga at
Risk

Sea level rise -

Relocation of
Variability in
population /Climate
monsoons –
induced refugees
affecting crop
production

Erosion of coastal areas

due to Sea Level rise
and Extreme Weather
Source: Mohan & Sinha 2010
 Climate change impacts in India
What the INCCA Report has found
Warmer seasons
• Avg. temp rise: 2.0 deg C predicted
• 1.0-4.0 deg C at extreme ranges

Increased annual precipitation

• lower frequency of rainy days; increased
intensity
Cyclonic disturbances
• lower frequency; increased intensity
• increased risk of storm surges

Sea-level rise
• 1.3 mm/year on average

Fresh water supply

• High variability predicted in water yields
(from 50% increase to 40-50%
reduction)
• 10-30% increased risk of floods;
increased
risks of droughts
 Climate Change impacts in India
What the INCCA Report has found
Forests and natural ecosystems
• Increased net primary productivity
• Shifting forest borders; species mix; negative
impact on livelihoods and biodiversity
Human health
• Higher morbidity and mortality from heat
stress and vector/water-borne diseases
• Expanded transmission window for
malaria
Reduced agricultural productivity
• Sharp fall in land productivity of 17%
farmers
• General decrease in productivity of crops;
however, cash crops like coconut may
increase
• Crops earlier grown in lower or mid-
Himalayan regions are now grown at higher
altitudes
• Marine fisheries are likely to be impacted as
the area of spawning shifts to higher
latitudes
 Climate Change impacts in India
Extreme Heat Changing Rainfall Patterns
What we know What we know
• India is already experiencing a warming • A decline in monsoon rainfall since the
climate. 1950s has already been observed. The
What could happen frequency of heavy rainfall events has
also increased.
• Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot
weather are expected to occur far more What could happen
frequently and cover much larger areas. • A 2°C rise in the world’s average
What can be done temperatures will make India’s summer
monsoon highly unpredictable
• With built-up urban areas rapidly
becoming “heat-islands”, urban planners What can be done
will need to adopt measures to • Improvements in hydro-meteorological
counteract this effect. systems for weather forecasting
• Installation of flood warning systems can
help people move out of harm’s way
before a weather-related disaster strikes.
 Climate Change impacts in India
Droughts Groundwater
What we know What we know
• Droughts have major consequences. In • More than 60% of India’s agriculture is
1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected rain-fed, making the country highly
more than half of India’s crop area and dependent on groundwater.
led to a huge fall in crop production. What could happen
What could happen • Falling water tables can be expected to
• Droughts are expected to be more reduce further on account of increasing
frequent in some areas, especially in demand for water from a growing
north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa population, more affluent life styles, as
and Chhattisgarh. well as from the services sector and
• Crop yields are expected to fall industry.
significantly because of extreme heat by What can be done
the 2040s. • The efficient use of ground water
What can be done resources will need to be incentivized.
• Investments in R&D for the development
of drought-resistant crops can help
reduce some of the negative impacts.
 Climate Change impacts in India
Glacier Melt Sea level rise
What we know What we know
• Himalayan glaciers - where a substantial • Mumbai has the world’s largest
part of the moisture is supplied by the population exposed to coastal flooding,
summer monsoon - have been retreating with large parts of the city built on
over the past century. reclaimed land, below the high-tide
What could happen mark. Rapid and unplanned urbanization
further increases the risks.
• At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers and
the loss of snow cover over the What could happen
Himalayas are expected to threaten the • Sea-level rise and storm surges would
stability and reliability of northern India’s lead to saltwater intrusion in the coastal
primarily glacier-fed rivers, particularly areas, impacting agriculture, degrading
the Indus and the Brahmaputra. groundwater quality, contaminating
What can be done drinking water
• Major investments in water storage What can be done
capacity would be needed to benefit • Building codes will need to be strictly
from increased river flows in spring and enforced and urban planning will need to
compensate for lower flows later on prepare for climate-related disasters.
 Climate Change impacts in India
Agriculture and food security Energy Security
What we know What we know
• Rising temperatures with lower rainfall at • Climate-related impacts on water
the end of the growing season have resources can undermine the two
caused a significant loss in India’s rice dominant forms of power generation in
production. Without climate change, India - hydropower and thermal power
average rice yields could have been generation - both of which depend on
almost 6% higher (75 million tons in adequate water supplies to function
absolute terms). What could happen
What could happen • The increasing variability and long-term
• Seasonal water scarcity, rising decreases in river flows can pose a major
temperatures, and intrusion of sea water challenge to hydropower plants.
would threaten crop yields, jeopardizing What can be done
the country’s food.
• Projects will need to be planned taking
What can be done into account climatic risks.
• Crop diversification, and improved soil
management practices, together with the
development of drought-resistant crops.
 Climate Change impacts in India
Water Security Health
What we know What we know
• Many parts of India are already • Climate change is expected to have major
experiencing water stress. health impacts in India- with the poor
What could happen likely to be affected most severely.
Malaria and other vector-borne diseases,
• An increase in variability of monsoon along with and diarrheal infections, are
rainfall is expected to increase water likely to spread into areas where colder
shortages in areas. temperatures had previously limited
What can be done What could happen
• Improvements in irrigation systems, • Health systems will need to be
water harvesting techniques, and more- strengthened in identified hotspots.
efficient agricultural water management
can offset some of these risks. What can be done
• Improvements in hydro-meteorological
systems for weather forecasting and the
installation of flood warning systems can
help people move out of harm’s way
before a weather-related disaster strikes.
 Climate Change impacts in India
Migration and conflict
What we know
• South Asia is a hotspot for the migration of people from disaster-affected or degraded
areas to other national and international regions.
• The Indus and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins are major trans boundary
rivers, and increasing demand for water is already leading to tensions among countries
over water sharing.
What could happen
• Climate change impacts on agriculture and livelihoods can increase the number of
climate refugees.
What can be done
• Regional cooperation on water issues will be needed.
THANK YOU