GOAL 3
Understand Past, Present and
Future Environmental
Consequences of Land
Change to Support Better
Management of their Effect
on People Environment,
Economy and Resources.
Introductio
n
A decade from now, USGS Invasive Species Forecasting
System will document, map, and predict harmful invasive
species and serve as the primary tool used by land-
management agencies, tribes, state-local government, and
citizen volunteer groups for combating invasive species.
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PAGE
USGS geographer will lead
to Nation's efforts to
locate
and contain Invasive
Species before they gain
dominance and harm our
economy and
Land changes have substantial
effects on environment,
economic, and social welfare at
all scales
(Climate Change Science, 2003)
STRATEGIC ACTION
3.1 DEFORESTATIO
damages ecosystems, reduces biodiversity, and
•Conduct research on the N Forest loss increases the
disrupts the water cycle.
risk of erosion, flooding, and reduces the
consequences of land change, on
availability of fresh water, as well as worsening
climate, water, carbon cycle, and global climate change.
societal concerns.
Deforestation for
agriculture, plantations
and development.
Forest fires.
Illegal logging and
the timber
industry.
STRATEGIC ACTION 3.2
Conduct research on specific
consequences of land-use and landcover
patterns and changes for environmental
health and public safety issues,
particularly at the boundaries between
developed and wildland areas.
how changes in land use EXAMPLES:
(like building cities,
farming, or cutting down
forests) affect the
environment and people’s
safety. It focuses on
areas where cities or
towns meet forests,
mountains, or other
natural spaces Wildfires Floodin
g
STRATEGIC ACTION
IMPROVED 3.3
CAPABILITIES
TO ASSESS WILDFIRE
conditions
ASSESS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
This involves understanding the
current state of the environment
to determine how likely a wildfire
is to occur. This can include things
like the dryness of vegetation,
weather conditions, and fuel
sources (like grass, trees, or
PREDICT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
Scientists and experts want to
improve their ability to predict
when and where a wildfire might
happen. This could involve using
weather data, historical fire
patterns, and environmental
conditions to make more accurate
PRIORITIZE TREATMENT AREAS
forecasts.
In regions where wildfires are common,
it's important to identify areas that are
most at risk. Prioritizing treatment
areas means focusing resources (like
firebreaks, controlled burns, or cleariof
vegetation) on the spots that are most
vulnerable to prevent future
After applying treatments to reduce the risk
of wildfires (like thinning out trees or
creating defensible space), it's essential to
monitor how well these efforts work. This
research would help track the effectiveness
of these measures over time, ensuring
resources are being used efficiently and that
fire risks are actually being reduced.
MONITOR
PREVENTION FIRETHAN
IS BETTER TREATMENT
CURE EFFECTIVENESS
Data Collection: Use multispectral imagery, climate models, and on-groun
Model Development: Train predictive models with historical and real-time
Field Studies: Conduct controlled burns and track vegetation regrowth.
Collaboration: Work with fire agencies, ecologists, and local communities
STRATEGIC ACTION
3.4
Conduct a research on the feedback between land change
and environmental system and resources.
• Land change affects the environment, which in turn
impacts land use. Understanding the connections between
land change, climate, water, and human decisions can help
create comprehensive models. This knowledge will inform
policymakers and resource managers about the
consequences of their choices.
Sidebar 3.1: Assessing the environmental
consequences of land change
DOI or USGS must follow the interdisciplinary
approach when doing research on the effects of
land change. Through interagency forums, in which
the Fire Science Program (FSP), North America
Carbon Program (NACP), and Climate Change
Service Program (CCSP) are participating
interagency programs.
Performance Measures:
• USGS, geographers, working with biologists, geologists, and water scientists from across the USGS, must
identify research priorities and prepare a Research plan (within 2 years).
• A national assessment of the contemporary effects of land change on regional carbon dynamics is
completed (within 3 years).
• National assessments of the consequences of land change on ecosystem services, water quality, and
Climate variability are completed (within 10Years).
• Regional analyses of the threats of land change in the urban-wild land interface are conducted (within5
years).
• A systematic assessment of wildfire risks and consequences on DOI lands is made (within 6 years).
STRATEGIC SCIENCE
ACTIONS
The USGS has a long and distinguished research
record related to on physical and biological
systems and processes.
- Future USGS research associated with this goal
must combine the longstanding physical and
biological sciences with the geographical land
change science.
SEVERAL QUESTIONS:
How will different scenarios of future land change affect the productivity of public and
private land, and what are the economic and environmental consequences of changes in
land productivity?
• How will land changes affect the form and functioning of ecosystems, including the ability
to provide essential goods and services and levels of ecosystem biodiversity, and what are
the ecological, economic, public health, and social costs of the changes?
How does land change
affect climate and,
subsequently, how does,
how does climate
change affect the way
land is used?
THANK YOU!
