PART-C: Trip Generation

• Trip purpose
• Factors governing Trip generation and Attraction on
routes
• Multiple linear regression analysis
• Assumptions validity in trip generation studies.
• Aggregated and Disaggregated analysis.
• Criteria for evaluation of Regression equations,
• Category analysis – Assumptions.
• Critical appraisal of category analysis techniques.
05 Hrs
 What are the stages in Transport Planning?

• Mainly there are four stages model that is trip

generation, trip distribution, modal split and
trip assignment. The choice of routes in the
development of transportation planning
depends upon certain parameters like journey
time, distance, cost, comfort, and safety.
 Definitions of Some Commonly Used Terms in
Transportation
• Origin: the location of where a trip begins.

• Destination: the location of where a trip ends.

• Trip: a one-way movement between an origin and a

destination, independent of length or distance.

• One way travel from one point (origin) to another

(destination) for a specific purpose, the destination of
one trip becomes the origin to the next.
 Definitions of Some Commonly Used Terms in
Transportation
• Trip-end: either a trip origin or a trip
destination.

• Internal or local trip: a trip having both origin

and destination within the area under study.

• Through-trip: a trip having both origin and

destination outside the area under study.
 Definitions of Some Commonly Used Terms in
Transportation
• Cordon: an imaginary line which defines the boundary of
the study area.

• Desire line: a straight line connecting zone centroids,

representing travel taking place between zones. The width
of the desire line is usually made proportional to the
number of trips between the zones.

• Screen line: a line established to divide the study area into

parts for the purpose of checking the accuracy of survey
data.
• Centroids are points that identify the center of activity
within a zone and connect that zone to the
transportation network. Centroid connectors are links
that connect the centroids to the network.

• Zone centroids and centroid connectors are used to attach

trip ends generated from socioeconomic or external
station data within zones or external stations to the
roadway network. Centroids are nodes in the roadway
network that are placed in each traffic analysis zone
(TAZ) and at each external station location.
• Zone Centroid: Centroids are nodes in the roadway
network that are placed in each traffic analysis zone (TAZ)
and at each external station location.
• Centroid connectors provide a link between centroids and
the transportation network.

• Transport Nodes: can be defined as a point that represents

one or more of the following features:
• the end of the road
• A junction of two or more road segments
• A grade separated intersection
• A grade separated interchange is when a local
road crosses over or under the highway and
ramps are used to enter or exit the highway.
 Trip generation

• Trip generation is a model of the number of

trips that originate and end in each zone for a
given jurisdiction.
• Trip generation estimates the number and
types of trips originating and terminating in
zones.

• Trip distribution is the process of computing

the number of trips between one zone and all
other. ... Each cell in the matrix indicates the
number of trips that go from each origin zone
to each destination zone.
 Trip purpose

• The purpose of a trip—for

example, traveling to work or visiting friends
—greatly influences travel behavior and mode
choice. For example, a person's trip home
from work is recorded as a work trip—again,
even if the person ran several errands as well
on the trip. ..
 Introduction and Definitions

• The first phase of the transportation planning process

deals with surveys, data collection and inventory.

• The next phase is the analysis of the data so collected

and building models to describe the mathematical
relationship that can be discerned in the trip-making
behavior.

• The analysis and model building phase starts with the

step commonly known as Trip Generation.
 Introduction and Definitions

• Trip generation is a general term used in the

Transportation Planning process to cover the field of
calculating the number of trip ends in a given area.

• The objective of the trip generation stage is to

understand the reasons behind the trip making
behavior and to produce mathematical
relationships to synthesise the trip-making pattern
on the basis of observed trips, land-use data and
household characteristics.
 Introduction and Definitions

• Since a considerable confusion can occur in

the meaning of the various terms used in trip
generation, it is desirable to understand the
exact meaning of the various terms.

• A trip is a one-way person movement by a

mechanized mode of transport, having two
trip ends, an origin (the start of the trip) and a
destination (the end of the trip).
 Introduction and Definitions

• Trips are usually divided into home-based and

non-home based.

• Home-based trips or those having one end of

the trip (either origin or destination) at the
home of the persons making the trip, while
non-home based trips are those having
neither end at the home of the person making
the trip.
 Introduction and Definitions

• The trip ends are classified into generations and

attractions.

• A generation is the home end of any trip that has one end
at the home (i.e., of a home-based trip), and is the origin
of a trip with neither end home based (i.e., of a non-
home-based trip).

• An attraction is the non-home end of a home-based trip,

and is the destination of a trip with neither end home-
based (i.e., of a non-home-based trip).
 Introduction and Definitions

• The above definitions are further classified by the

following examples. Consider a trip from home to work
and the return trip from work to home, vide Fig. 31.1.

• Both these trips are home-based, because one end of

the trips is the home.

• Both these trips are considered to have been

generated at the end of the home zone and attracted
to the work zone.
 Introduction and Definitions

• We thus have two work-purpose trip end

generations in the home zone and two work
purpose attractions in the work zone.

• Consider another example of the trip from the

place of work to shop and return to the place
of work, as is usual during the lunch recess,
vide Fig. 31.2.
 Introduction and Definitions

• Both these trips are non-home-based, because neither end of

the trip is the home of the person making the trip. Both these
trips are considered to have been generated at the work zone
and attracted to the shop zone.

• We thus have two shopping-purpose trip end generation in the

work zone and two shopping purpose attractions in the
shopping zone.

• By the above definitions, the total number of trip generations

in any area should be equal to the total number of
attractions.
 Trip purpose

• Trips are made for different purposes and a classification

of trips by purpose is necessary. The following are some
of the important classes of trip purpose:

• Work, school, business

• Social or recreational, sports
• Others
• The break-up of trips by purpose is normally done for
the home-based trips which represent nearly 80-90% of
the total trips.
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and Attraction Rates

• A number of factors govern the trip generation rates.

These are discussed below:
• Income
• Car ownership
• Family size and composition
• Land use characteristics
• Distance of the zone from the town centre
• Accessibility to public transport system and its efficiency.
• Employment opportunities, floor space in the industrial
and shopping units and offices, sales figures in shops, etc.
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and Attraction Rates

• Income: Obviously, family income which

represents its ability to pay for a journey
affects the number of trips generated by a
household.

• A general trend is that the higher the income

the higher is the trip generation rate.
 Definition of household

• A household is usually a group of persons, who normally

live together and take their meals from a common
kitchen unless the exigencies of work prevents any of
them from doing so. Persons in a household may be
related to or unrelated to one another or a mix of both.
(Population Census of India, 2011).

• A group of unrelated persons who live in an institution

and take their meals from a common kitchen is called an
institutional household.
• Examples: Hostels, Rescue homes, Ahramas, Orphanages, Jails,
Hotels, etc.

• The classifications that have been used in major urban

transport planning studies for home based trips are as follows:
• Work trips
• Educational trips
• Shopping trips
• Personal business trips
• Work related business trips
• Social and recreational trips
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and Attraction Rates

• Car ownership: A car represents easy mobility, and

hence a car owning household will generate more trips
than a non-car-owning household.

• By the same reasoning, the more cars there are in a

household, the more the number of trips generated.

• Of course, number of cars owned is itself related to the

income of the family, which has been listed earlier as a
factor
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and Attraction Rates

• Family size and composition: The bigger the

family, the more trips there are likely to be
generated. Apart from the size, the
composition of the family itself is important.

• For instance, if both the husband and wife are

employed, the trips generated will be more
than when only the husband is employed.
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and
Attraction Rates
• If there are many school-going children, the number
of school purpose trips will be large. If some of the
children are grown up and are employed, the
number of work purpose trips will increase.

• The age structure of the family also governs the trip

rates. Old persons are not expected to generate as
many trips as younger ones. The occupation of the
family is also known to influence the travel pattern.
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and
Attraction Rates
• Land use characteristics: Different land uses
produce different trip rates. For example, a
residential area with a high density of dwellings
can produce more trips than one with a low
density of dwellings.

• On the other hand, low density areas may

represent dwellings of the affluent society, which
may produce a large number of private car trips. .
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and
Attraction Rates
• The rateable value of the dwelling and the
type of the dwelling units affect the trip
generation rates. The most important
assumption made in transportation planning is
that the amount of travel is dependent on
land use
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and
Attraction Rates
• Distance of the zone from the town centre:
The distance of the zone from the town centre
is an important determinant of the amount of
travel that people might like to make to the
town centre. The farther the town centre, the
less the number of trips are likely to be.
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and
Attraction Rates
• Accessibility to public transport system and
its efficiency: The accessibility to a public
transport system and its efficiency determine
to some extent the desire of persons to make
trips. An easily accessible and efficient public
transport system generates more trips.
 Factors Governing Trip Generation and
Attraction Rates
• Employment opportunities, floor space in the
Industrial and Shopping units and offices, sales
figures in shops etc.: The employment potentiality
of an industrial or shopping unit or an office
establishment directly governs the trip attraction
rate.

• Similarly, another factor to which the trip attraction

rate can be related is the floor space in the
premises of industries, shops and offices.
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• Multiple linear regression analysis is a well-known

statistical technique for fitting mathematical
relationships between dependent and
independent variables.

• This technique has been exploited fruitfully in a

number of transportation planning studies carried
out so far and has become a very powerful tool in
the hands of the transportation planner.
• the practice or science of collecting and analysing
numerical data in large quantities, especially for the
purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those
in a representative sample.

• Statistical methods are mathematical formulas, models,

and techniques that are used in statistical analysis of
raw research data. The application of statistical
methods extracts information from research data and
provides different ways to assess the robustness of
research outputs.
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• In the case of trip generation equations, the

dependent variable is the number of trips and
the independent variables are the various
measurable factors that influence trip generation.

• These independent variables are the land-use

and socio-economic characteristics discussed
earlier. The general form of the equation
obtained is:
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• Yp = a1X1 + a2X2 + a3X3……… anXn + U

• Where, Yp = number of trips for specified purpose p

• X1, ,X2, X3…..Xn = independent variables relating to, for example,

land-use socio-economic factors, etc.

• a1,a2, a3………an = coefficients of the respective independent

variable X1, ,X2, X3…..Xn, obtained by linear regression analysis.
• U = Disturbance term, which is a constant, and representing
that portion of the value of Yp not explained by the
independent variables.
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• The equation of the above form is developed from

the present day data pertaining to independent
variables and the dependent variable, using the
statistical technique of ‘least squares’ fitting.

• The equation thus developed is used for

determining the future values of trips, knowing
the estimated future values of the independent
variables.
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• As an example of the multiple regression

analysis equation, the following equation
developed from a study of Toronto is given:

• Total trips (Generated at home on an average

week day) = (.318) x (population 5 years and
older) + (0.458)x (number of households) +
(0.890) x (number of cars owned)
 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

• Another example below is from a study of

Modesto
• Y = 2.18 + 3.404 A + 0.516 H + 0.0119 X1 – 0.343 X2
• Where, Y = Average trips per occupied dwelling
unit
• A = Car ownership
• H = Household size
• X1 = Social rank index
• X2 = Urbanization index
• The Social Progress Index (SPI) measures the
extent to which countries provide for
the social and environmental needs of their
citizens.

• Fifty-four indicators in the areas of basic

human needs, foundations of well-being, and
opportunity to progress show the relative
performance of nations.
• Basic Human Needs, Foundations of Wellbeing, and
Opportunity. Within each dimension, there
are four components that further divide
the indicators into thematic categories.

• Social progress is defined as the capacity of a society to

meet the basic human needs of its citizens, establish the
building blocks that allow citizens and communities to
enhance and sustain the quality of their lives, and create
the conditions for all individuals to reach their full
potential.
 Abstract

• A social rank index (X), defined as

• , where D = number dominated, S = number dominating,
and N = group size, was devised to measure social status of
individuals in groups. Social rank indexes for eight flocks of
24 White Leghorn pullets tended to be normally distributed.

• Pecking triangles (which were common) and about 35% of

undetermined pair relationships caused social rank indexes
to have reduced variances from those expected with linear
hierarchies and a tendency for aggregation of values near
the mean.
 Social tension index

• Social tension index, defined as the number of aggressive

acts minus number of submissive acts, was highly
correlated (r = 0.93, P < 0.001) with social rank index.
There was a tendency for positive kurtosis (excessive
peakedness) in the distribution of social tension indexes.

• A significant curvilinear relationship was found between

social rank index and frequency of agonistic interactions
of individuals within flocks. Pullets with either high or low
social status had higher frequencies of agonistic acts than
did those of intermediate status.
 Using social rank index

• Using social rank index as the independent variable, the linear

and three curvilinear regression equations were found to be
significantly associated with age at sexual maturity, survivor's egg
production, and survivor's egg mass in four of the eight flocks.

• The relationships tended to be measured more accurately by

curvilinear than linear models.

• The curvilinear models used were chosen on the basis of

McBride's (1960) hypothesis; i.e. that low social status is
disproportionately important in depressing performance of those
individuals ranking near the bottom of the social hierarchy.
 Urbanization

• Urbanization is the process of becoming urban. In other

words, it is a demographic process whereby an increasing
proportion of the population of a region or a country lives in
urban areas. ... Urbanization is linked to industrialization.

• The two main variables in an experiment are the

independent and dependent variable. An independent
variable is the variable that is changed or controlled in a
scientific experiment to test the effects on the dependent
variable. ... The dependent variable is 'dependent' on the
independent variable.
• The proportion of a country that is urban. Rate of
Urbanization. The increase in the proportion of urban
population over time, calculated as the rate of growth of
the urban population minus that of the total population.

• If the degree of urbanization is measured by the

percent of population living in urban places, the urban-
rural ratio by the city size of the median inhabitant, or
by the mean city size, the speed of urbanization would
be the change registered in these indices over a period
of time.
 Normal distribution

• A normal distribution has a bell-shaped density curve

described by its mean and standard deviation . The
density curve is symmetrical, centered about its mean,
with its spread determined by its standard deviation.

• Normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian

distribution, is a probability distribution that is
symmetric about the mean, showing that data near
the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far
from the mean. In graph form, normal distribution will
appear as a bell curve.
• A bell curve is a graph depicting the normal
distribution, which has a shape reminiscent of
a bell. The top of the curve shows the mean,
mode, and median of the data collected. Its
standard deviation depicts the bell
curve's relative width around the mean.
• The standard deviation is a statistic that
measures the dispersion of a dataset relative
to its mean and is calculated as the square
root of the variance. ... If the data points are
further from the mean, there is a
higher deviation within the data set; thus, the
more spread out the data, the higher
the standard deviation.
 Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
and their validity in Trip Generation Studies

• The statistical theory of regression analysis is based on the

following important assumptions:

• All the variables are independent of each other;

• All the variables are normally distributed;
• All the variables are continuous;
• A linear relationship exists between the dependent variable
and the independent variable;
• Influence of independent variable is additive, that is the
inclusion of each variable in the equation contributes a
distinct portion of the trip numbers.
• A linear relationship (or linear association) is a statistical term used to
describe a straight-line relationship between two variables. Linear
relationships can be expressed either in a graphical format or as a
mathematical equation of the form y = mx + b. Linear relationships are
fairly common in daily life.
 Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
and their validity in Trip Generation Studies

• It is difficult to ensure that the above basic

assumptions are satisfied on most of the trip
generation studies.

• Firstly, the so called independent variables in

the regression equations are not truly
independent of each other, and some sort of
correlation normally exists among them.
 Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
and their validity in Trip Generation Studies

• The variables such as car ownership, family

income, residential density etc. are all interrelated
to a certain extent. Secondly, many of these
variables are, strictly speaking not normally
distributed.

• Finally, some of them are not continuous variables,

an example being the car ownership. The number
of cars owned by a family can only be a discrete
variable.
• Discrete variables are countable in a finite
amount of time. For example, you can count
the change in your pocket. You can count the
money in your bank account.
 Assumptions in Multiple Linear Regression Analysis
and their validity in Trip Generation Studies

• The above imperfections notwithstanding, the

technique has gained popularity, one of the
reasons for this being its easy adaptability to
computer programming when handling
voluminous data.
 Aggregated and disaggregated analysis

• Multiple linear regression analysis is of two types:

• Aggregated, or Zonal least-square regression,

where each traffic zone is treated as one
observation.

• Disaggregated, or Household least-square

regression, where each household is treated as
an observation.
 Aggregated and disaggregated analysis

• The aggregated analysis which is most widely

used, is based on the assumption that
contiguous households exhibit a certain
amount of similarity in travel characteristics.

• This assumption allows the data in a zone to

be grouped and the mean value of the
independent variable used in further
calculations.
 Aggregated and disaggregated analysis

• Some of the disadvantages associated with the aggregated

models are:

• The analysis masks the variations in the data.

• The data is inefficiently utilised.

• The zonal sample mean is not necessarily a reliable estimate of

the population mean.

• The model is dependent on the type of zoning system adopted.

 Aggregated and disaggregated analysis

• The method is based on an important assumption that zones

are to a large extent homogeneous with respect to travel and
socio-economic characteristics.

• While care is taken normally to select the zone boundaries to

fulfil the above assumption, the variations within the zone can
sometimes be large.

• In the process of making the zones as small as possible to make

them truly homogeneous, the planner increases the complexity
of analysis, notably trip distribution and assignment.
 Aggregated and disaggregated analysis

• Disaggregated analysis, though not so widely used,

treats each household as an observation. In this
process, all the enormous amount of data is used
more effectively resulting in a more meaningful
description of the characteristics.

• As compared to aggregated analysis, disaggregated

analysis produces better results and is considered
more likely to be stable over time and to provide
more reliable future estimates.
Criteria for Evaluation of Regression Equations

• The following criteria should generally be applied

in evaluating and selecting a regression equation.

• The multiple correlation coefficient should have a

value at least 0.75 or even higher. A value close to
1.0 shows a very good correlation.

• The standard error of the estimate of the

dependent variable should be sufficiently small.
• A multiple correlation coefficient (R) yields the
maximum degree of liner relationship that
can be obtained between two or more
independent variables and a single
dependent variable.
• The standard error (SE) of a statistic is the
approximate standard deviation of a
statistical sample population. The standard
error is a statistical term that measures the
accuracy with which a sample distribution
represents a population by using standard
deviation.
Criteria for Evaluation of Regression Equations

• The F test should be carried out to examine

evidence of the degree of certainty that a
meaningful relationship exists between the
dependent and independent variables.

• The equation should have accuracy, validity,

simplicity, sharpness and constancy.
• The F-test is a parametric test that helps the
researcher draw out an inference about the
data that is drawn from a particular
population. The F-test is called a parametric
test because of the presence of parameters in
the F- test. These parameters in the F-test are
the mean and variance.
• Parametric tests are those that assume that
the sample data comes from a population
that follows a probability distribution — the
normal distribution — with a fixed set of
parameters. Common parametric tests are
focused on analyzing and comparing the mean
or variance of data.
• Zoning is a method of urban planning in which
a municipality or other tier of government
divides land into areas called zones, each of
which has a set of regulations for new
development that differs from
other zones. Zones may be defined for a
single use (e.g. residential, industrial),
• Correlation means association - more
precisely it is a measure of the extent to which
two variables are related. ... A
positive correlation is a relationship between
two variables in which both variables move in
the same direction.
• In statistics, the coefficient of multiple correlation is a
measure of how well a given variable can be predicted using
a linear function of a set of other variables. It is
the correlation between the variable's values and the best
predictions that can be computed linearly from the
predictive variables.

• Correlation coefficients are indicators of the strength of the

relationship between two different variables. A correlation
coefficient that is greater than zero indicates a positive
relationship between two variables. A value that is less than
zero signifies a negative relationship between two variables.
• An F-test is any statistical test in which the test statistic has
an F-distribution under the null hypothesis. It is most often
used when comparing statistical models that have been
fitted to a data set, in order to identify the model that best
fits the population from which the data were sampled.

• A null hypothesis is a type of hypothesis used in statistics

that proposes that there is no difference between certain
characteristics of a population (or data-generating process).
For example, a gambler may be interested in whether a
game of chance is fair.
• A plausible hypothesis is framed based on the
analytical work and is tested in this present
investigation, i.e., a Transportation System
brings about a total development of the
system. In the development process,
Transportation System functions as a catalyst
for Integrated Development of the city.
 Disadvantages of the Multiple-Linear Regression
Analysis Technique

• Some of the disadvantages associated with the

assumptions made in the linear regression
technique have already been discussed earlier. In
addition, the following points deserve mention.

• The equation derived is purely empirical in

nature and fails to establish a meaningful
relationship between the dependent and
independent variables.
 Disadvantages of the Multiple-Linear Regression
Analysis Technique

• The technique is based on the premise that the

regression coefficients initially established will still
remain unchanged in the future and can be used in the
regression equation for predicting future travel. How far
the prediction is valid in future is a moot question.

• Difficulties arise in evaluating the effect of statistical

problems relating to non-linearity of the response
surface and high correlations amongst the explanatory
variables.
• Empirical research is based on observed and measured
phenomena and derives knowledge from actual experience
rather than from theory or belief. ... Description of the process
used to study this population or phenomena, including
selection criteria, controls, and testing instruments (such as
surveys).

• Nonlinearity is a term used in statistics to describe a situation

where there is not a straight-line or direct relationship
between an independent variable and a dependent variable.
In a nonlinear relationship, the output does not change in
direct proportion to a change in any of the inputs.
• the explanatory variable is the variable that
is manipulated by the researcher. Explanatory
Variable. Also known as the independent or
predictor variable, it explains variations in the
response variable; in an experimental study, it
is manipulated by the researcher.
• Statistics is a form of mathematical analysis that uses
quantified models, representations and synopses for a given
set of experimental data or real-life studies. Statistics studies
methodologies to gather, review, analyze and draw
conclusions from data. Some statistical measures include the
following: Mean.

• Statistical methods are mathematical formulas, models,

and techniques that are used in statistical analysis of raw
research data. The application of statistical methods extracts
information from research data and provides different ways to
assess the robustness of research outputs.
• Raw data or primary data are collected directly related to
their object of study (statistical units). In contrast to raw data,
we speak of secondary data if the data have already been
aggregated and thus no longer contain all of the information
of the original investigation.

• Secondary data refers to data that is collected by someone

other than the primary user. Common sources of secondary
data for social science include censuses, information collected
by government departments, organizational records
and data that was originally collected for other research
purposes.
• Category analysis refers to the process of having an in-
depth knowledge of the demand and supply market for
a particular category. Category
analysis comprises category overview, drilling into
the category and finally deep analysis.

• The category analysis approach recognises that the

household is the more appropriate basic analysis unit.
Briefly, the process is to divide all households up
into defined categories and assign to each category a
trip production rate which.
 Category Analysis

• Category Analysis or cross-classification technique is a method

developed by Wotton and Pick and has been used in some
transportation studies in U.K.

• It is based on determining the average response or average

value of the dependent variable for certain defined categories
of the independent variables.

• A multidimensional matrix defines the categories, each

dimension in the matrix representing one independent
variable. The independent variables themselves are classified
into a definite number of discrete class intervals.
 Assumptions

• The technique is based on the following assumptions:

• The household is the fundamental unit in the trip generation

process, and most journeys begin or end in response to the
requirements of the family.

• The trips generated by the household depend upon the

characteristics of that household and its location relative to its
required facilities such as shops, school and work place.

• Households with one set of characteristics generate different

rates of trips from households with other set of characteristics.
 Assumptions

• Only three factors are of prime importance in affecting the

amount of travel a household produces: car-ownership, income
and household structure.

• Within each of the above three factors, a limited number of

ranges can be established so as to describe the trip generating
capacity of a household by a limited number of categories.

• Trip generation rates are stable over a time so long as factors

external to the household are the same as when the trips were
first measured.
 Categorisation of Households

• As stated above, households are classified on the basis of

three factors, viz., car ownerships, income and household
structure. These are then classified into different ranges as
indicated below:

• Car ownership- 3 levels, (0 car, 1 car and more than 1 car)

• Disposable Income- 6 classes:

• (i) < £ 500 p.a. (ii) £ 500 -1000 p.a.
• (iii) £ 1000 -1500 p.a. (iv) £ 1500-2000 p.a.
• (v) £ 2000-2500 p.a. (vi) > £ 2500 p.a.
 Categorisation of Households

• Household Structure-6 classes:

• No employed residents and one non-employed adult.
• No employed residents and 2 or more non-employed adults.
• One employed resident and one or less non-employed adult.
• One employed resident and 2 or more non-employed adults.
• Two or more employed residents and one or less non-
employed adult.
• Two or more employed residents and two or more non-
employed adults.
 Categorisation of Households

• The above system gives in all 3 x 6 x 6 = 108 categories.

• In addition, it is also possible to consider 3 modes of

travel viz.,
• self-driven car,
• public transport,
• passenger in a car and
• 6 trip purposes (work, school, business, shopping,
social-recreational and sport, others). Thus we have 18
mode purpose combinations.
 Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique

• The advantages that have been claimed for the technique are:

• The whole concept of household trip-making is simplified in

this technique. The technique categorises the household
according to certain socio-economic characteristics and this
appears rational.

• Unlike regression analysis technique, no mathematical

relationship is derived between trip-making and household
characteristics. This takes away many of the statistical
drawbacks of the regression analysis.
 Critical appraisal of the category analysis technique

• Since data from the census can be used directly, it

saves considerable effort, time and money spent on
home-interview survey.

• The computations are relatively simpler.

• Since disaggregate data are used, the technique

simulates human behaviour more realistically than
the zonal aggregation process normally employed in
regression analysis.
 The following are some of the disadvantages of the
technique.

• It is difficult to test the statistical significance

of the various explanatory variables.

• The technique normally makes use of studies

in the past made elsewhere, with broad
corrections.
 The following are some of the disadvantages of the
technique.

• In the analysis it is assumed that income and car

ownership increase in future. The categories of higher
incomes and higher car ownership are, however, the ones
which are the least represented in the base year.
Moreover, they are the ones most likely to be used for
future estimates of trip generations.

• New variables cannot be introduced at a future date.

• Large samples are needed to assign trip rates to any one

category.
• Disposable income, also known
as disposable personal income (DPI), is the amount
of money that households have available for
spending and saving after income taxes have been
accounted for.

• passenger car is a road motor vehicle, other than a

motor cycle, intended for the carriage
of passengers and designed to seat no more than
nine persons (including the driver).
• Critical appraisal is the course of action for watchfully
and systematically examining research to assess its
reliability, value and relevance in order to direct
professionals in their vital clinical decision making.

• Disaggregated data refers to numerical or non-

numerical information that has been (1) collected from
multiple sources and/or on multiple measures,
variables, or individuals; (2) compiled into
aggregate data—i.e., summaries of data—typically for
the purposes of public reporting or statistical analysis;
• Numerical data is a data type expressed in numbers, rather
than natural language description. Sometimes called
quantitative data,numerical data is always collected
in number form. ... This characteristic is one of the major ways
of identifying numerical data.

• An example is the weight of luggage loaded onto an airplane.

Counting the number of times a ball dropped from a rooftop
bounces before it comes to rest comprises numerical data. On
the other hand, non-numerical data, also called categorical,
qualitative or Yes/No data, is data that can be
observed, not measured.
• A simulation is an imitation of a real thing.
Within human behavior research, it often
takes the form of a controlled presentation of
a setting that can't reasonably be experienced
by a participant.
 Multiple Choice Questions

1. Which one is not a public transport mode

(a) MRTS (b) BRTS (c) LRTS (d) CAR

2. ITS technology used in public transport

• Public transport travel information
• Electronic toll collection system
• Vehicle actuated signals
• Pelican signals
 Multiple Choice Questions

3. Which is not a urban road system

• Grid iron system
• Concentric and radial street system
• Polynomial street system
• Organic street system

4. An example of combination of rectangular with radial

street system
• New Delhi (b) Bhubaneshwar
• Chandigarh (d) Gandhinagar
 Multiple Choice Questions

5. Estimate trip rate for a residential land use with

2744 thousand of square feet and 6574 person
trips
• (a) 2.4 (b) 10 (c) 11.2 (d)
7.6

6. If trip rates are 0.5 for H.H. size till 3 and 1.0 for
H.H. size above Q. No. 4 estimate likely trip to
(a) 1100 (b) 1115 (c) 1000 (d) 2000
 Solved Questions and Answers

• What is trip generation?

• Trip generation is the first stage of the classical first
generation aggregate demand models. The trip
generation aims at predicting the total number of
trips generated and attracted to each zone of the
study area.

• In other words this stage answers the questions to

“How many trips” originate at each zone, from the
data on household and socioeconomic attributes.
• A socioeconomic class is a group of people
with similar characteristics.
These characteristics can include social and
economic standing, level of education, current
profession, and ethnic background or heritage.
 Solved Questions and Answers

• What are the factors that affect trip generation?

• The main factors affecting personal trip production include
income, vehicle ownership, household structure and family
size.

• In addition factors like value of land, residential density and

accessibility are also considered for modelling at zonal levels.

• The personal trip attraction, on the other hand, is influenced

by factors such as roofed space available for industrial,
commercial and other services.
 Solved Questions and Answers

• At the zonal level zonal employment and

accessibility are also used. In trip generation
modelling in addition to personal trips, freight trips
are also of interest.

• Although the latter comprises about 20 per cent of

trips, their contribution to the congestion is
significant. Freight trips are influenced by number
of employees, number of sales and area of
commercial firms.
 Solved Questions and Answers

• Let the trip rate of a zone is explained by the

household size done from the field survey. It
was found that the household size are 1, 2, 3
and 4. The trip rates of the corresponding
household is as shown in the table below.
Solved Questions and Answers

1 2 3 4
Trips 1 2 4 6
per day 2 4 5 7
(y) 2 3 3 4
∑y 5 9 12 17
 Solved Questions and Answers

• Solution: The linear equation will have the firm, y=

bx + a where, y is the trip rate, and x is the household
size, a and b are the coefficients. For a best fit, b is
given by

• b = n∑xy -∑x∑y/n∑x2 – (∑x)2

• a=y–bx
• ∑x = 3 x 1 + 3 x 2 + 3 x 3 + 3 x 4 = 30
• ∑x2 = 3 x (12) + 3x (22) + 3 x (32) + 3 x (42) = 90
• Line of best fit refers to a line through a
scatter plot of data points that best expresses
the relationship between those points. ... A
straight line will result from a simple
linear regression analysis of two or more
independent variables.
 What is input data?

• A forecasting activity, such as one based on the

concept of economic base analysis, provides aggregate
measures of population and activity growth.

• Land use forecasting distributes forecast changes in

activities in a disaggregated spatial manner among
zones. The next step in the transportation planning
process addresses the question of the frequency of
origins and destinations of trips in each zone: for
short, trip generation.
• Forecasting is a technique that uses historical
data as inputs to make informed estimates
that are predictive in determining the
direction of future trends. Businesses
utilize forecasting to determine how to
allocate their budgets or plan for anticipated
expenses for an upcoming period of time.
• Forecasting—whether it's business forecasting,
human resources forecasting, or financial forecasting
—is the process of using data, insights, analytics, and
experience to make predictions and preparations to
meet a specific business need.

• The objective of economic base analysis is to

calculate regional multipliers that describe the extent
to which employment or income will grow as a
function of new jobs added to a regional economy.
 What is Poisson regression?

• Poisson Regression Modelling Poisson

regression is a non-linear modelling method
that overcomes some of the problems of OLS
regression.

• It is particularly suited to count data. In the

model, the number of events is modelled as a
Poisson random variable with a probability of
occurrence being.
 What are the advantages of the Poisson regression
model?

• The Poisson model over comes some of the

problems of the OLS model.

• First, the Poisson model has a minimum value of 0. It

will not predict negative values. This makes it idea 1
for a distribution in which the mean or the most
typical value is close to 0.

• Second, the Poisson is a fundamentally skewed

model; that is, it is non-linear with a long right.
 What are the advantages of the Poisson regression
model?

• Again, this model is appropriate for counts of rare

events, such as crime incidents.

• In other words, the variance is many times greater

than the mean. Most real-world count data are
similar to this; the variance will usually be a lot
greater than the mean.

• What this means in practice is that the residual

errors, the difference between the observed.
• This article will help you understand
what skewed data is, and how it can affect
your statistical insights that you want to
achieve using your statistical model. A data is
called as skewed when curve appears
distorted or skewed either to the left or to the
right, in a statistical distribution.
• In statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) is a
type of linear least squares method for
estimating the unknown parameters in a
linear regression model. ... Under these
conditions, the method of OLS provides
minimum-variance mean-unbiased estimation
when the errors have finite variances.
• What is variance? In terms of linear regression, variance is
a measure of how far observed values differ from the
average of predicted values, i.e., their difference from the
predicted value mean.

• A residual is the vertical distance between a data point

and the regression line. ... In other words, the residual is
the error that isn't explained by the regression line.
The residual(e) can also be expressed with an equation.
The e is the difference between the predicted value (ŷ)
and the observed value.
 What is Trip-rate analysis?

• Trip rate analysis refers various models those

are based on the determination of the average
trip-production or trip-attraction rates
associated with the trip generators within the
region.
• Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is a
statistical method of analysis that estimates
the relationship between one or more
independent variables and a dependent
variable; the method estimates the
relationship by minimizing the sum of the
squares in the difference between the
observed and predicted values of the
 Dependent and Independent variables

• A dependent variable is a variable whose

variations depend on another variable, usually
the independent variable.

• An independent variable is a variable whose

variations do not depend on another variable
but the researcher experimenting.
 Dependent and Independent variables

• The dependent variable is the variable being tested

and measured in an experiment and is dependent
on the independent variable.

• For example, take our example of 100 students

completing a maths exam where the dependent
variable was the exam mark (measured from 0 to
100) and the independent variables were revision
time (measured in hours) and intelligence
(measured in IQ score).