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Conditional Probability (1)

The document discusses concepts of conditional probability, the multiplication rule of probability, and the distinction between dependent and independent events. It includes several questions and examples related to calculating probabilities in different scenarios, such as rolling dice, drawing balls from a bag, and evaluating committee decisions. Additionally, it addresses the probability of system failures in a satellite launch system and provides a table for calculating probabilities based on surface flaws in parts.

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1 views10 pages

Conditional Probability (1)

The document discusses concepts of conditional probability, the multiplication rule of probability, and the distinction between dependent and independent events. It includes several questions and examples related to calculating probabilities in different scenarios, such as rolling dice, drawing balls from a bag, and evaluating committee decisions. Additionally, it addresses the probability of system failures in a satellite launch system and provides a table for calculating probabilities based on surface flaws in parts.

Uploaded by

nkhalid.bese23seecs
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Conditional Probability,

Multiplication Rule of
Probability, Dependent and
independent Events

Ansar Shahzadi
School of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
National University of Science and Technology(NUST)
Conditional Probability

The probability of an event given that


another event has occurred is called a
conditional probability.
If A and B are any events in S and P(B) The
conditional probability of A given B is
Multiplication rule Of
probability
Two events, A and B, are dependent if the
occurrence of one event affects the probability
of the other event occurring. In this case, the
probability of both events occurring is the
product of the probability of the first event and
the conditional probability of the second event
given that the first event has occurred:
Independent Events
Two events A and B are defined to be
independent if the probability that one event
occurs, is not affected by the other event has or
has not occurred, that is
=P(A) and =P(B)
It then follows the two events A and B are
independent if and only if
Question 1
A pair of fair dice is thrown. If the two number
appearing are different, find the probability that
• The sum is six.
• The sum is 4 or less.
Question 2
A bag contains 10 white and 6 black balls. Four
balls are drawn out and not replaced, find the
probability that they are alternatively of different
colors.
Question 3
A and B are two independent events. The probability
of A is 1/4 and Probability of B is 1/3. Find the
Probabilities
• Neither A nor B occurs
• Both A and b occurs
• Only A occurs
• Only B occurs
• At least one occurs
Question 4
A committee of three members A, B, and C is to
make decision on the basis of majority vote.
What is the probability of wrong decision by the
committee? If the probabilities of wrong decision
by each member are 0.05, 0.05, and 0.10.
Question 5
A Satellite Launch system is controlled by a computer
(computer I) that has two identical backup computers
(computers II and III).Normally computer I control the
system, but if it has malfunction, the computer two
automatically control the system. If computer II malfunction,
then computer III automatically takes over, and if computer
III malfunction, there is general system shutdown. The
probability of malfunction of each computer is 0.01 and the
malfunction of three computers independent of each other.
Find the probability of
• Computer I in use?
• Computer III in use?
• System failure?
Question 6
The table provides an example of 400 parts classified
by surface flaws and as (functionally) defective.
Surface Flaws
Yes(event F) No

Defective Yes(event D) 10 18
No 30 342

Find the following probabilities


• P(F|D)
• P()
• P

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