Prior Knowledge Check

1) Three coins are flipped. 2) Two fair dice are rolled.

Calculate the probability Calculate the probability that
that: the sum of the scores on the
𝟏 dice is:𝟏
a) All land on tails𝟖 𝟗
𝟏 a) 5 𝟏
b) All land on heads𝟖 𝟐
𝟑 b) Even𝟏
c) Exactly one lands on tails
𝟖 𝟐
𝟏 c) Odd 𝟏
d) At least 2 land on heads𝟐 𝟑
d) Prime 𝟓
𝟏𝟐
e) A multiple of 3
Discrete Random Variables
A random variable is a variable This chapter focuses on Discrete
whose value depends on the Random Variables
outcome of a random event
 These are values which can only take
For example, when we roll 5 certain numerical values, each of
dice, the number of sixes rolled which can be assigned a probability
would be a random variable

A discrete variable can only take For example, the number of times a 1 is
certain countable numerical rolled when rolling a dice 10 times
values
 It can only take certain numerical
values
 For example, the number of
people has to be a whole number  Each can be assigned a probability
Discrete Random Variables

A probability distribution fully The letter represents the event we

describes the probability of any are considering, and the table
outcome in the sample space includes all the possible outcomes

For example, for the random

variable: 1 2 3 4 5 6

If all the probabilities The lower row means ‘The probability of

are the same, it is an observation being equal to ’
known as a ‘discrete
uniform distribution’  In this case, ‘The probability of the
score when a fair dice is rolled being
equal to ’.
Discrete Random Variables
There are 4 possibilities for the
number of heads:
Three fair coins are tossed. 0, 1, 2 or 3

0 1 2 3
a) Write down all the possible
1 3 3 1
outcomes when the three
coins are tossed. 8 8 8 8

HHH HTH HHT HTT  A probability mass function

THH TTH THT TTT summarises the probabilities
A random variable, , is defined and events which take those
as the number of heads when values

{ ¿
1
the three coins are tossed.
8
𝑥=0 ,3
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑥 ) =¿ 3𝑥=1 , 2
b) Write the probability
distribution of as:
8
¿
0 𝑜𝑡h𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
i) A table
ii) A probability mass function Each probability The outcomes which
is included here correspond to the
probabilities are listed
here
Discrete Random Variables
There are 4 possibilities for the
number of heads:
Three fair coins are tossed. 0, 1, 2 or 3

0 1 2 3
a) Write down all the possible
1 3 3 1
outcomes when the three
coins are tossed. 8 8 8 8

HHH HTH HHT HTT

THH TTH THT TTT
A random variable, , is defined
as the number of heads when Note that since the table
the three coins are tossed. represents all possible outcomes,
the sum of the probabilities must
be equal to 1…

∑ 𝑃 ( 𝑋=𝑥 )=1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥

b) Write the probability
distribution of as:
i) A table
ii) A probability mass function
Discrete Random Variables
There are 4 possible outcomes for the
dice:
A biased four-sided dice with
faces numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4 1, 2, 3
1 and2 4 3 4
is rolled. The number on the
bottom face is modelled as a 𝑘 𝑘
12 6 𝑘4 𝑘3
random variable . 1 25
25 25 25
2 3 4

Remember that since all

Given that outcomes are represented, the
probabilities should add up to 1…
a) Find the value of 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘
+ + + =1
1 2 3 4
b) Give the probability
distribution of in table 12 𝑘+ 6 𝑘+ 4 𝑘+3 𝑘=12
form.
25 𝑘=12
12
𝑘=
25
Now we know that , we can
calculate the actual probabilities
Discrete Random Variables
There are 4 possible outcomes for the
dice:
A biased four-sided dice with
faces numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4 1, 2, 3
1 and2 4 3 4
is rolled. The number on the
bottom face is modelled as a 12 6 4 3
random variable . 25 25 25 25

Given that 7
𝑃 ( 𝑋 > 2)¿ 25

a) Find the value of

b) Give the probability 10 2
distribution of in table ¿
𝑃 ( 1< 𝑋 < 4 ) 25 ¿
5
form.
c) Find the Probability that:
i)
𝑃 ( 𝑋 > 4 )¿ 0
ii)
iii)
Discrete Random Variables

The spinner below is spun 1 2 3 4

until it lands on red, or has
been spun 4 times in total. 2 6 18
5 25 125
Find the probability
distribution of the random The probability that the number of
2 spins is 1
variable , the number of 𝑃 ( 𝑆=1 )=¿5
times the spinner is spun.
(i.e. – we get a red on the first
spin)
3 2 The probability that the
𝑃 ( 𝑆=2 ) =¿ 5 × 5
number of spins is 2
6
¿25  BR

3 3 2 The probability that the

𝑃 ( 𝑆=3 ) =¿ 5 × 5 × 5 number of spins is 3
18
¿ 125  BBR
Discrete Random Variables

The spinner below is spun 1 2 3 4

until it lands on red, or has
been spun 4 times in total. 2 6 18 27
5 25 125 125
Find the probability
distribution of the random
variable , the number of
times the spinner is spun.
𝑃 ( 𝑆=4 ) =¿1 − ( 2 6
+ +
18
5 25 125 )
27
¿ 125

The probability that the number of spins is

4

 In this case it does not matter whether

we get red or blue

 Spinning 4 times is equivalent to not

stopping after 1, 2 or 3 spins (since we
will not go above 4)
The Binomial Distribution
The Binomial distribution The probability for the first combination
can be used to model the listed will be calculated by:
number of times a trial is
successful 2 2 2 1 1
× × × ×
3 3 3 3 3

Gary is playing chess against

Nigel and has a chance of
winning each game. If they play Gary wins the first 3,
5 games, what is the
then Nigel wins the last
probability of Gary winning
exactly 3? 2
 All the other combinations will give the
same answer, since they contain the
same mix of probabilities
How many ways can Gary win
G3?
GGNN GNGGN NGGGN
 Therefore, the complete calculation is
GGNGN GNGNG NGGNG
as follows:

( )( )
GGNNG GNNGG NGNGG 3 2
2 1
NNGGG 10
3 3
¿ 0.329
The Binomial Distribution

Find the term containing in If the probability of Gary winning a

the following expansion: chess match is , the probability of
him winning exactly 3 games out of
( 𝑥+ 𝑦 ) 5 5 is:

( )( )
3 2
the binomial expansion 2 1
¿ 10
gives: 3 3
( )
3
5 ( 𝑥 ) ( 𝑦 )2
2

3 2
¿ 10 𝑥 𝑦

 These results are essentially the same!

 This section looks at using a binomial distribution for calculating probabilities

The Binomial Distribution

To use the Binomial distribution, a number of

conditions must be met…

 There are a fixed number of trials

 There are 2 possible outcomes (you can think of them as

success or failure)

 The probability of success is the same each time

 The trials are independent of each other (the outcome of one

trial does not affect the next trial…)
The Binomial Distribution
With a number of trials, , and
a probability of success,
If is If:
binomially
distributed
𝑋 𝐵 (𝑛, 𝑝)
Then: Probability of failure
to the power

𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑟 ) =
( ) 𝑛
𝑟
𝑟
𝑝 (1 −𝑝 )
𝑛− 𝑟

The probability of getting Probability of

No. ways of
successful trials is… success to the
choosing
successes from power r
trials

This is in the formula booklet in the A-level section!

The Binomial Distribution
Using the notation above…
Gary is playing chess against
Nigel and has a chance of
winning each game.
𝑋 𝐵 5, ( )2
3

If they play 5 games, what is The random variable X is binomially

the probability of Gary distributed, with 5 trials and probability
winning exactly 3? of success being

𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑟 ) =
( )𝑛
𝑟
𝑟
𝑝 (1 −𝑝 )
𝑛− 𝑟

( )( ) ( )
3 2
5 2 1
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =3 )=
3 3 3

𝑃 ( 𝑋 =3 )=0.329
The Binomial Distribution
( )
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑟 ) =
𝑛
𝑟
𝑟
𝑝 (1 −𝑝 )
𝑛− 𝑟

( )( ) ( )
2 10
The random variable . 12 1 5
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =2 ) =
Find: 2 6 6
¿ 0.296
a)
This can be obtained
b) directly on your calculator
c)

The number of trials is 12

( )
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑟 ) =
𝑛
𝑟
𝑟
𝑝 (1 −𝑝 )
𝑛− 𝑟

( )( ) ( )
9 3
The probability of success is 12 1 5
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =9 )=
9 6 6
¿ 0.0000126
The Binomial Distribution
If you get an inequality, think about
what probabilities you would need to
The random variable . make it
Find:
𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 1 )=𝑃 ( 𝑋=0 ) +𝑃 ( 𝑋=1)

( ) ( )( ) ( )
12 1 11
a) 5 12 1 5
¿ +
b) 6 1 6 6
c)
¿ 0.381
The number of trials is 12
The probability of success is
The Binomial Distribution
The probability that a
randomly chosen member of
a reading group is left-
handed is 0.15. A random
sample of 20 members of the We can consider there to be two
group is taken. possibilities – left-handed (success) and
right-handed (failure).
The number of trials is fixed, as is the
Suggest a suitable model for probability of success (for a large
the random variable , the sample). We can also assume that each
number of members in the member of the sample is independent.
sample who are left-handed.
Justify your
𝑿 𝑩choice.
( 𝟐𝟎 , 𝟎 .𝟏𝟓 ) Therefore:

b) Use your model to

calculate the probability that:
i) Exactly 7 sample
members are left-handed
ii) Less than two members
are left-handed
The Binomial Distribution
The probability that a
𝑛=20 𝑝= 0.15 𝑟 =7
randomly chosen member of
a reading group is left-
handed is 0.15. A random
( )
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =𝑟 ) =
𝑛
𝑟
𝑟
𝑝 (1 −𝑝 )
𝑛− 𝑟

sample of 20 members of the

group is taken.
𝑃 ( 𝑋 =7 )=( ) 20
7
7
( 0.15) ( 0.85 )
13

¿ 0.0160
Suggest a suitable model for
the random variable , the 𝑛=20 𝑝=0.15 𝑟=0 𝑜𝑟 1
number of members in the
sample who are left-handed.
Justify your
𝑿 𝑩choice.
( 𝟐𝟎 , 𝟎 .𝟏𝟓 ) 𝑃 ( 𝑋 < 2 )=𝑃 ( 𝑋=0 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝑋=1)

b) Use your model to

calculate the probability that:
20
¿ ( 0.85 ) +
( )
20
1
(0.15) (0.85)
19

i) Exactly 7 sample ¿ 0.176

members are left-handed
ii) Less than two members
are left-handed
Cumulative Probability

A cumulative probability function

tells you the sum of all the
individual probabilities up to and
including the chosen value

You are given some tables for the

cumulative distribution function in the
formula booklet (and on pages 204-207
of your textbook)

Some calculators have the tables

built in, and you can use them from
there…
Cumulative Probability

The random variable .

Find: and

a) ¿ 0.4159
b) ¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 5)¿ 0.1256

c) ¿ 1 − 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 14)

¿ 1 −0.9984
¿ 0.0016
Cumulative Probability
and
A spinner is designed so that
the probability it lands on red
is 0.3. Jane has 12 spins. 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ¿≤0.2528
2)
Find the probability that Jane
obtains:
¿ 1 − 𝑃 ( 𝑋 ≤ 4)
a) No more than 2 reds ¿ 1 −0.7237
b) At least 5 reds ¿ 0.2763

 Always start by
summarizing the binomial
distribution…

𝑋 𝐵 (12 ,0.3)
Cumulative Probability
 If we want the chance of winning to be
𝑋 𝐵 (12 ,0.3)
less than 0.05..
Jane decides to use this
spinner for a class  Let r = the smallest number of reds
competition. She wants the required to win a prize.
probability of winning a prize
to be less than 0.05. Each  We want
member of the class has 12
spins, and the number of reds
is recorded.

Find how many reds should

be needed
From to win a prize.
the calculator:

7
 So,