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![Strategic Management @ 2013
The first………Then……………….
• The oil palm was first introduced to Southeast Asia in 1848, when four
seedlings, originating from West Africa, were planted in the botanical
gardens at Buitenzorg (now Bogor) in Java (Hartley 1988, 21).
• http://www.cambridge.org/us/books/kiple/palmoil.htm
• While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of Tokyo
Telecommunications Engineering Corporation (nowSony), discovered that AT&T was
about to make licensing available for the transistor. Ibuka and his partner, physicist Akio
Morita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) to
finance the $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent to $216,134 today). For several months
Ibuka traveled around the United States borrowing ideas from the American transistor
manufacturers. Improving upon the ideas, Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering
Corporation made its first functional transistor radio in 1954.[5] Within five years, Tokyo
Telecommunications Engineering Corporation grew from seven employees to
approximately five hundred.
• Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and the
grand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times in
comparison to 1957.[11]
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_radio](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/02reu2013-130517131952-phpapp02/75/02-Future-Analysis-2013-3-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byWai Chamornmarn
02 Future Analysis 2013
The document discusses the introduction of oil palm to Southeast Asia in 1848 and the first transistor radio developed in Japan in 1954. It also outlines key events that helped the early growth of the transistor radio industry in Japan in the 1950s. Specifically, it notes that four oil palm seedlings were originally planted in Java in 1848. It also discusses how the founder of Sony discovered the potential for transistor licensing from AT&T in 1952, and worked with the Japanese government to obtain financing to develop Japan's first functional transistor radio in 1954, which helped grow the company from seven to five hundred employees within five years. Other Japanese electronics companies soon followed with exports growing significantly by 1958.
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02 Future Analysis 2013
- 1. Strategic Management @2013 Wai chamornmarn 2
- 2. Strategic Management @2013 The first ……… in thailand that make a big change.
- 3. Strategic Management @2013 The first………Then………………. • The oil palm was first introduced to Southeast Asia in 1848, when four seedlings, originating from West Africa, were planted in the botanical gardens at Buitenzorg (now Bogor) in Java (Hartley 1988, 21). • http://www.cambridge.org/us/books/kiple/palmoil.htm • While on a trip to the United States in 1952, Masura Ibuka, founder of Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation (nowSony), discovered that AT&T was about to make licensing available for the transistor. Ibuka and his partner, physicist Akio Morita, convinced the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) to finance the $25,000 licensing fee (equivalent to $216,134 today). For several months Ibuka traveled around the United States borrowing ideas from the American transistor manufacturers. Improving upon the ideas, Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation made its first functional transistor radio in 1954.[5] Within five years, Tokyo Telecommunications Engineering Corporation grew from seven employees to approximately five hundred. • Other Japanese companies soon followed their entry into the American market and the grand total of electronic products exported from Japan in 1958 increased 2.5 times in comparison to 1957.[11] • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_radio
- 4. Strategic Management @2013 •
- 5. Strategic Management @2013 Futures Long-term notions of the good society Unrealized but realisitic possibilities of problem solutions Likely temporal development of societal problems Possible futures Desirable futures Probable futures
- 6. Strategic Management @2013 • • • • •Technology forecasting •Scenario Planning – Decision Analysis Game theory Analogies and Pattern recognition
- 7. Strategic Management @2013 The Cynefin framework
- 8. Strategic Management @2013 Thinking the Future Debating the Future Shaping the Future Participatory Action oriented Open Not only analysing or contemplating future developments but supporting actors in actively shaping the future not predicting a pre- determined future but exploring how the future might evolve in different ways depending on the actions of various players and decisions taken „today‟. •involving the key stakeholders •Results are disseminated and discussed among a wide audience FORESIGHT A process of systematic collective reasoning about the future Professor Ron Johnston Executive Director Australian Centre for Innovation University of Sydney
- 9. Strategic Management @2013 • Type of Scenario
- 10.
- 11. Strategic Management @2013 Scenarios versus Forecasts
- 12. Strategic Management @2013 Types of Scenarios • Deductive ←→ Inductive • organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking into consideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from this study of the data. • Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory • Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs. Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral) and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge. • Qualitative ←→ Quantitative • visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs. Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models •
- 13. Strategic Management @2013 Scenario Planning – Types Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Inductive Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Deductive Official Future Alternative scenario Incremental Vision Normative Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002 Ged Davis is Managing Director, Head of the Centre for Strategic Insight at the World Economic Forum.
- 14. Strategic Management @2013 Starting from the future Starting from the present Exploratory and Normative Scenario Analysis What next? What if? Where to? How to?
- 15. Strategic Management @2013 •
- 16. Strategic Management @2013 History of Scenarios
- 17. Strategic Management @2013 Scenarios Caribbean Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)
- 20.
- 21. Strategic Management @2013 Eurelectric Power choices –scenario 2050 Total consumption of energy will decrease... Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies More electricity = less energy
- 22. Strategic Management @2013 • Steps in Scenario Development
- 23. Opportunities and threatscan be found by analysing the changes in the operating environment Trend analysis One or several dominating development process analysed Scenario analysis Several alternatives described and analysed Weak signal analysis Uncertain but potentially high impact
- 30. Strategic Management @2013 • Exercise: AEC 2025
- 31. Strategic Management @2013 AEC Logic
- 32. Strategic Management @2013 IF ………Then…………
- 33. Strategic Management @2013 If………….. Then………………
- 34. Strategic Management @2013 • • Scenario building workshop
- 35. Strategic Management @2013 • “Genius” forecasts • Expert Groups, deskwork, • Modelling tools like simulation, cross-impact; gaming • Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints • Workshops
- 36. Strategic Management @2013 - ,Outward DRIVERS • Social • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Political • Values A B C “drivers and shapers” / group trends and events drivers - /brainstorming - - drivers
- 37. Strategic Management @2013 • Exercise: Thailand 2025
- 38. Strategic Management @2013 If…………….. Then…………….
- 39. Strategic Management @2013 Climate Crisis Drought and saline resistant crops Efficient irrigation techniques Climate proof infrastructure Early warning systems Adaptation Resources Constraints and Climate Crisis Climate Security Likely Impacts
- 40. Strategic Management @2013 Climate Change
- 41. Strategic Management @2013 Thai Agriculture Scenarios: Biotechnology, GM, Organic And Extensification
- 42. Strategic Management @2013 •Exercise •
- 43. : : - value creation clustering R&D . R&D Motor Way: - EWEC ICD/ CY - - Clustering :
- 44.
- 45.
- 48. Strategic Management @2013 • • Elements of a Scenario
- 49. Strategic Management @2013 Write Scenarios Scenario – /multidimentional overview Vignette - / Focuses on one dimension, others contextual. Profile - /skeletal description of future in terms of key parameters.
- 50. Strategic Management @2013 Elements of a Scenario • 1. A base year (or period) • 2. A time horizon (or period) and time steps. • 3. A geographic coverage – city, country, global? • 4. A description of step-wise changes • 5. Driving forces or uncertainties • 6. Storyline.
- 51. Strategic Management @2013 Effective Scenarios kneejerk - Robust (not Accurate as such) Novel/ Stimulating Provocative/ Challenging /Useful
- 52. Strategic Management @2013 Transportation Power Information & Communications Health Lighting Services Automation & Control Dietmar Theis Siemens AG Corporate Technology München [email protected] Pictures of the Future and Horizons2020 : Developing scenarios for future technologies and food for thought about future lifeworlds
- 53. "Pictures of theFuture" and "Horizons 2020" complement each other in providing holistic scenarios about the long-term future 5 . . .10 years Time Horizon 10 . . . 20 years Customers Society Markets Focus Individual Technologies Values Technology Planning Communication Business Opportunities Benefit Discussion Communication Impulses Corporate TechnologyDriverCorporate Communications Transportation Power HealthServices Information & Communications Automation & Control
- 54. Future designs • VISION(desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision) • TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge) • FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends; expert knowledge) • SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures – STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified options) – COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative aspects of alternative future designs)
- 55. Picture of theFuture Information and Communication
- 56. © Siemens AG,CT SM Picture of the Future Transportation
- 57. Smart Traffic ManagementIncreases Infrastructure Efficiency © Siemens AG, CT SM Specific Transportation Trends: Cost Reduction in Rail Operation Efficiency in Road Utilization Gate-free, Electronic Fare Management systems Automatic Passenger Counting solutions Automated, demand-oriented systems for train operation Advanced highway maintenance planning systems Infrastructural systems to support collision avoidance Smart, cost-efficient systems for traffic detection Advanced planning and control systems for Traffic Management
- 58. Strategic Management @2013 CORPORATETECHNOLOG Health Patient-Centric Healthcare Integrated Services Theranostics Bio-, Nano-, Info- Technologies © Siemens AG, All Rights Reserved.
- 59.