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02 think futures 2014
This document discusses various techniques for analyzing and predicting the future, including trends analysis, scenario planning, and weak signal analysis. It describes scenario planning as involving the development of multiple alternative scenarios rather than a single forecast. The document outlines different types of scenarios, such as deductive vs inductive, exploratory vs anticipatory, and qualitative vs quantitative. It also provides examples of scenario planning exercises conducted by Shell and Nokia. Overall, the document provides an overview of strategic foresight and scenario planning techniques.
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02 think futures 2014
- 1. Strategic Management @2014 Wai chamornmarn 02 การวิเคราะห์อนาคต Thinking futures
- 2. Strategic Management @2014 The first ……… in thailand that make a big change.
- 3. Future designs • VISION(desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision) • TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation; expert knowledge) • FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends; expert knowledge) • SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible futures – STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified options) – COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative aspects of alternative future designs)
- 4. Strategic Management @2014 Scenarios versus Forecasts
- 5. Strategic Management @2014 วิธีการพยากรณ์อนาคต • อนาคตที่ชัดเจน • การพยากรณ์แบบ เดียว พอเพียงที่จะ กําหนดกลยุทธ์ได้ • ใช้วิธีการพยากรณ์ แบบดั้งเดิม อนาคตที่มีช่วงหรือขอบเขตระยะ หนึ่ง • อนาคตมีความเป็นไปได้อยู่ช่วง หนึ่ง • Technology forecasting • Scenario Planning อนาคตมีทางเลือก อนาคตที่ชัดเจนมี 2 – 3 แบบ Decision Analysis Game theory คลุมเคลือ ไม่มีหลักเกณฑ์เดี่ยวในการ พยากรณ์อนาคต Analogies and Pattern recognition
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- 9. Strategic Management @2014 Futures Long-term notions of the good society Unrealized but realisitic possibilities of problem solutions Likely temporal development of societal problems Possible futures Desirable futures Probable futures
- 10. Strategic Management @2014 Three common types of futures thinking
- 11. Strategic Management @2014 Three common types of futures thinking
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- 13. Strategic Management @2014 History of Scenarios
- 14. Strategic Management @2014 • Strategic • Foresight
- 15. Strategic Management @2014 Context : Why foresight? Source: David A. Jarvis
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- 17. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
- 18. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
- 19. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
- 20. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
- 21. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
- 22. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
- 23. Strategic Management @2014 Source: Adam Gordon
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- 25. Strategic Management @2014 • มองอนาคต •
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- 27. Strategic Management @2014 Key assumptions about futures studies
- 28. Strategic Management @2014 Barriers to understanding the future
- 29. Strategic Management @2014 Barriers to understanding the future
- 30. Strategic Management @2014 • Type of Scenario
- 32. Opportunities and threatscan be found by analysing the changes in the operating environment Trend analysis One or several dominating development process analysed Scenario analysis Several alternatives described and analysed Weak signal analysis Uncertain but potentially high impact
- 33. Strategic Management @2014 Types of Scenarios • Deductive ←→ Inductive • organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking into consideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from this study of the data. • Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory • Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs. Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral) and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge. • Qualitative ←→ Quantitative • visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs. Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models •
- 34. Strategic Management @2014 Scenario Planning – Types Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Inductive Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Deductive Official Future Alternative scenario Incremental Vision Normative Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Ged Davis is Managing Director, Head of the Centre for Strategic Insight at the World Economic Forum.
- 35. Strategic Management @2014 Generic Foresight Process
- 36. Strategic Management @2014 • Steps in Scenario Development
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- 39. Strategic Management @2014 Scenarios Caribbeanต้นแบบจากการประเมินระบบนิเวศสหัสวรรษ Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006) Scenario Development: 1
- 40. Strategic Management @2014 Euroelectric Power choices –scenario 2050 Total consumption of energy will decrease... Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies More electricity = less energy
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- 45. Strategic Management @2014 Things to consider …………. Source: David A. Jarvis
- 46. Source: David A.Jarvis
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- 48. Strategic Management @2014 IF ………Then…………
- 49. Strategic Management @2014 If………….. Then………………
- 50. Strategic Management @2014 If…………….. Then…………….