06 Gertz - Rising transport costs German planning

06 Gertz - Rising transport costs German planning

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  The consequences ofrising transport costs in German planning and research Prof. Carsten Gertz Hamburg University of Technology Institute for Transport Planning and Logistics
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  When petrol pricesare high: extensive Media coverage, but so far no policy reactions High fuel prices cause trouble (2012) Most expensive year of all times to refuel (2011)
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  The social Dimension(household expenditures % – income) Energy Rent Transport Eigene Auswertungen (TUHH, Altenburg 2011) der EVS 2008 Haushalts- Budgetverwendung eines Single- Haushalts Bruttoeinkommen Savings
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  Options for Householdsto deal with rising transport costs
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  Will rising energyprices influence loaction decisions? Before After
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  In general: Highnumber of relocations for several reasons– in these cases energy prices might become one factor Eigene Darstellung TUHH, Gesa Matthes, Datengrundlage SOEP Number of moves / age (average 2000-2009)
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  Research project: EnergyCosts and Land Use  Objectives:  Which regions are particularly affected by rising energy / transport costs?  How will administration and politics respond to this situation?  Case study: Hamburg Metropolitan Region  research period: October 2010 – March 2014  Funding:
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  Energy forecasts (Oil price($)/bbl)and real development Scenario: 200 $/bbl
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  Scenarion – Crudeoil: 200 USD/bbl Calculation of additional monthly costs for a household Quelle: eigene Darstellung TUHH, Projekt €LAN Petrol Electricity Heating additional monthly costs for a household
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  Research design: Couplinga Transport – Land Use model with a serious political game
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 11 Software framework for an agent-based simulation Simulation of a series of individual, household and institutional decisions €LAN model main features Residential location choice Job choice Real estate developments Household formation Sensitivity for Land use e.g. school closing Transport networks new regional train line Prices fuel costs income Car ownership Accessibility indicators based on travel times and costs supplied by the transport model Long-term decisions
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  €LAN - Energiepreisentwicklungund Landnutzung 12 Typology of Municipalities HH OZ VR OR (A) MZ LR Hamburg Main cities Dense region around HH Suburban axis Other cities with central functions Rural area OR (Z) Suburban area (between axis)
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 13 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Verkehr Wohnen Fuel price 2025: 2,20 € Fuel price 2025: 2,20 € Mobility Housing In rural areas: high transport costs might lead to reduced rents and housing costs Share of income spent for mobility and housing - Single parent, low income HH OZ VR OR (A) MZ LR OR (Z)
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 14 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Verkehr Wohnen Fuel price 2015: 2,20 € 2025: 3,50 € Fuel price 2015: 2,20 € 2025: 3,50 € In an extreme scenario (400 USD/bbl) the proposed measures would not help to prevent an increase in total costs Mobility Housing with measuresM HH OZ VR OR (A) MZ LR OR (Z) Share of income spent for mobility and housing - Single parent, low income
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  €LAN - Energiepreisentwicklungund Landnutzung 15 Serious game Political science experiment depicts reactions of decision makers (mayors, city- and transport planers) series of moderated sessions Preparation: „future“ media news and film clips (meassage: population has to deal with high energy costs – it is time to react) participants had to develop strategies within a realistic financial framework Planning game means: negotiations between different stakeholders are possible, but there is no obligation for implementation
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  Photo: www.mediaserver.hamburg.de/Unterelbe Tourismuse.V Different Perspectives Urban - Rural: „Can we expect that low income households might come to our communities because they can not afford to live in the city anymore? For commuters we will be less attractive.“
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  „The topic isof less importance for us, We will become more attractive, but there will be more pressure on the housing market.“ Photo: www.mediaserver.hamburg.de Different Perspectives Urban - Rural:
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 18 Spatial concretization of strategies HHHH OZOZ VRVR MZMZ LRLROR (A) OR (A) OR (Z) OR (Z) Measure field Transport infrastructures Measure field Transport infrastructures Public transport: increase of capacitesPublic transport: increase of capacites Maintaini ng PT Maintaini ng PT Electric-MobilityElectric-Mobility Alternative transport servicesAlternative transport services New PT infrastructuresNew PT infrastructures Electric BicyclesElectric Bicycles
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 19 Spatial concretization of strategies HHHH OZOZ VRVR MZMZ LRLROR (Achse) OR (Achse) OR (Zwischen) OR (Zwischen) Measures Housing: more efficiency Measures Housing: more efficiency Reduction of municipal energy consumption (redevelopment municipal buildings)Reduction of municipal energy consumption (redevelopment municipal buildings) Support renovation apartment buildingsSupport renovation apartment buildings Advice for house ownersAdvice for house owners General energy adviceGeneral energy advice
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 20 Spatial concretization of strategies HHHH OZOZ VRVR MZMZ LRLROR (Achse) OR (Achse) OR (Zwischen) OR (Zwischen) Measures City planning Measures City planning Internal development / RedensificationInternal development / Redensification New residential areasNew residential areas Promotion of existing areasPromotion of existing areas City-Country-Co-operationCity-Country-Co-operation Attracting businessAttracting business
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 21 Spatial concretization of strategies HHHH OZOZ VRVR MZMZ LRLROR (Achse) OR (Achse) OR (Zwischen) OR (Zwischen) Measures Social Infrastructures Measures Social Infrastructures Improvement child careImprovement child care Improvement medical servicesImprovement medical services Mobile Services Mobile Services Community centres Community centres
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 22 Wish list for state and federal government (from the perspective of the municipalities) HH OZ VR OR (A) MZ LR Hamburg Oberzentren Verdichtungsraum Ordnungsraum: Achse Mittelzentren außerh. OR Ländlicher Raum OR (Z) Ordnungsraum: Zwisch. No counter- subsidizing development through a reduction of the fuel tax or an increase in the commuter tax relief But Further financial support for the public transport system
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  Conclusions  Implementation willbe only under pressure (of high prices), we can‘t expect forward looking political decisions  Nearly all proposed measures would also help to reduce CO2-emissons or to deal with demographic changes
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 24 Foto: C. Gertz
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  Integration of aland use transport model into a planning game… 25 Carsten Gertz, Univ-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Hamburg University of Technology Institute for Transport Planning and Logistics D-21071 Hamburg, Germany [email protected] phone: + 49 / 40 / 42878-3518 WORKSHOP “ENERGY-RELATED ECONOMIC STRESS AT THE INTERFACE BETWEEN TRANSPORT POVERTY, FUEL POVERTY AND RESIDENTIAL LOCATION” Leeds, 20.05.15