urban futuresA presentation by Dr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA, @urbanverse Frewen Architects and University of Houston Futures Studies For University of Kansas Introduction to Architecture 02011
spacetimelanguagehttp://twitter.com/urbanversehttp://urbanverse.posterous.com@urbanverseDr Cindy Frewen Wuellner, FAIA
3housing & schoolspublic projectsmaster planning
2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt
citiesbuildingsmovableswearables
citiesbuildingsmovableswearableslanguage
Urban Futures PerspectiveThinking About the Future?Big Urban Futures Architecture, Language + You
I. How do you …. Think about the future?
The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Kay (modeled Macintosh & Windows)
4 Types of Change
S-CurveThe Real Problem of ChangeS-CurvePeter Bishop, 2003
2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt
Herbert Spencer – Technology & ProgressFuture Society,altruisticIndustrial SocietyMilitant SocietyBarbarismGaltung & Inayatullah, 1997
IDEALate CultureMass civilizationPre-cultureBirthDeathTimeOswald Spengler – Growth and DeclineIDEALate cultureMass culturePre-CultureDeathBirthTIMEGaltung & Inayatullah, 1997
The “Upside of Down” ProphecySource:  O. Markley,  “A New Intelligence Methodology for Anticipating Disruptive Surprises” (2010)15
RianeEisler – Domination/PartnershipGaltung & Inayatullah, 1997
Every day futures… How to apply futures thinking
Applied Futures WorkForecastingDescribing the futureWith systems, cycles, trends, scenariosPlanningVisions = Preferred FuturesInfluencing, strategies
3 Types of Futures ThinkingFutures	Forces	Thinking	TechniquesProbableConstants	Definite	Historical 	Trends		ExtrapolationPlausibleDiscontinuities	Imaginative	Scenarios	Surprises		Preferable	Choices	Visionary	Visioning	Images		PlanningFrom Peter Bishop, 2003
Futures MethodsScanning	Research, STEEP  	Forecasting	Systems, Trends, Scenarios Visioning	Preferred Vision, GoalsPlanning	Mission, StrategyActing	Initiatives, Results
EconomicEnvironmentalTechnologicalImmediate EnvironmentSocialPoliticalSTEEPEnvironmental ScanYou
Causal Layered AnalysisTime Scale of ChangeProblemContinuousLitany, Descriptions CausesYearsSystems AnalysisWorldviewDecadesDiscourse Analysis Metaphors, Myths, ImagesGenerationsInayatullah, 2004
II. Big Urban FuturesWhat do you think might happen?
Cities and people 3 Billion More People
Population Forecasts for Selected Countries 2010 - 2100NigeriaIndiaU.S.YouChina
US Population to 2050550m410mYou320m
Population Over Age 60  2005 - 2045 You @60You
Megacities  1959 – 2000 - 2015You
Urbanization 1950 – 2007 - 2030You
Urban – Rural 1950 - 2030You
Planet resourcesLimits to growth
World Oil Production 2002- 2012You
Areas with High Water Stress You
Areas with Degraded and Very Degraded Soil
Africa’s High Risk Areas for Climate Change
What happens? Prices are going up…
What kind of cities??Choices or business as usual?
How much land do we need to live like….. ParisS.F.ParisN.Y. LondonSingaporeHouston
US home size doubled in 50 years2000: 2,200sf1970: 1,500sf1950: 1,000sf
2011 ku architecture intro for gaunt
III. Architecture, Language + YouWhat kinds of cities will you make?
Ways to think about urban futures … LanguageSocialCo-creatingSteady state diplomacy
1. Architecture and languageThe city as language
44Mythic CitiesUtopiaHigh TechFortressGaia
45metaphoric citiesgardenfamilybirdmachine
Omega Center  for Sustainable LivingRhinebeck NYBNIM ArchitectsLiving Cities
Beauty with meaning Seed CathedralShanghai World ExpoUK PavilionThomas Heatherwick, architect
People firstOakland CA Existing Street
From Dead Zones To LovableOakland CA w/ infill, trees, transit, bike lanes
2. The Social CityIRL, virtual, and you
AEntry PointsThe Conversation Prism Brian Solis + JESS
Mobile Phone Users 2000 - 2010From 1 billion to 5 billion users in a decade
Social networks; peer to peerDigital Added to Real WorldNew Fantasy WorldsRepresentations of reality; mapsSecond Life Metaverse Roadmap modified
Layar – on android cell phone
New York Phantom City TourPhantomcity.org
Heads Up display  wearable lensesVernor Vinge Rainbows End
Heads Up Display
Times Square NYC Networked Omniscient  ExhibitYou’ll know the social city far differently.
3. Co-Creating the CityHacking the City
 Guerrilla artundergroundThe Underbelly ProjectAbandoned SubwayNew York City
Guerilla arthillsideWomen, Morro de ProvidenciaRio de Janeiro, JR Artist
Guerilla gardening
DDIY CitiesGermany electrical box bench
Making cities, not just lookingSydney Opera HouseJornUtzon Architect
4. Steady State CitiesHow do we measure progress?
Data-driven choicesBaltimore, CitiStats
Most Livable Vienna, Austria - Mercer
Greenest CitiesPortland Oregon
Well-being
Walkability Mapping Walk Scores . . . . Seattle
Affecting Where We LiveZillow
5. Urban DiplomacyComing together
Resolving wicked problemsLos Angeles …..17 million people, 200 municipalities, 5 counties, 5 watersheds share geography, water, air, nature, transportation, public resources, economy, culture and identity.
Who Owns the Water?
Who Owns the Skyline?
Who Owns the Sidewalk?
Who Decides Transportation Options?Copenhagen Bike Highway Sharing the city, not just consuming.How do we live together, diversity in harmony?
Urban FuturesWhat futures will you make?What stories will your city tell future gens?

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  • #47: Petals: Site, Water, Energy, Health, Materials, Equity, and Beauty w/ 20 imperativesBiophilia, Red Zone materials, The Center for Sustainable Living is a wastewater filtration facility that is designed to use the treated water for garden irrigation and in a greywater recovery system, Omega will use the system and building as a teaching tool in their educational program designed around the ecological impact of their campus.