Agricultural futures in the humid tropics a multi scale approach by Dr. randall ritzema, ilri

Agricultural futures in the humid tropics a multi scale approach by Dr. randall ritzema, ilri

• 1.
  Agricultural futures inthe humid tropics: A multi-scale approach International Conference on Integrated Systems – Systems Research for Sustainable Intensification in Smallholder Agriculture March 3-6, 2015, IITA Headquarters in Ibadan, Nigeria Randall Ritzema (on behalf of Tim Robinson)
• 2.
  Contributors • Timothy Robinson(ILRI) • Nils Teufel (ILRI) • Ingrid Öborn (ICRAF) • Mark van Wijk (ILRI) • Randall Ritzema (ILRI) • Robin Bourgeois (GFAR) • Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) • Mark Lundy (CIAT) • Cees Leeuwis (WUR) • Iddo Dror (ILRI)
• 3.
  Overview • The globalagricultural sector • Three ways to consider the future •Projections •Systems analysis •Community foresight • Proposed project • Some challenges
• 4.
  The global agriculturalsector Health and nutrition Equity and growth Climate and natural resource use Agricultural production
• 5.
  The global agriculturalsectorPoliciesandinstitutional change Economic growth Trade&marketing Changing diets Energy prices Agricultural production Health and nutrition Equity and growth Climate and natural resource use
• 6.
  Surface temperature projections Source:IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report
• 7.
  World population projection(UN 2012) Source: Gerland et al. 2014 Year Totalpopulation(billions) 7 Billion 9.5 Billion 11 Billion
• 8.
  Continental population projection Source:Gerland et al. 2014 Year Totalpopulation(billions)
• 9.
  Urbanisation Projections - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Humanpopulationinthousands Urban Rural Population growth andurbanisation in Kenya
• 10.
  A Multi-Scale Issue •These global/regional drivers influence the constraints and opportunities at the farm household level, both now and in the future • Drivers across scales produce complex effects • A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary, and multi- perspective approach is needed to address the complexity, and to move understanding toward action. • Proposed Humidtropics project
• 11.
  Project aims •Focus ontwo contrasting action sites in the humid tropics •Assess potential futures in these sites from 3 perspectives •Work with R4D platforms to propose interventions to steer those communities and systems along a plausible and sustainable development pathways
• 12.
  Contemplating the future:3 perspectives •Projections- exploring the ‘context of change’ • Global/regional drivers • Based on standard future ‘scenarios’ • Typically 20-80 years into the future • e.g. IMPACT, GLOBIUM, FAO projections •Systems analysis- using household survey data to explore the impact of different scenarios on livelihoods • e.g. IMPACT-lite surveys • Typically to 10-15 years into the future •Community foresight- discussing with communities what aspirations, expectations, and concerns they have of the future • Typically to 5-10 years into the future • e.g. GFAR approach
• 13.
  Projections •Based on differentpathways of economic development •Changing climates •surface temperatures •rainfall •extreme weather events •Changing demographics •population •urbanisation •migration •Provides long-term context Emissions Scenarios RCP2.6: Mitigation scenario leading to a very low forcing level CO2 reaches 421 ppm by 2100 RCP4.5: Stabilization scenario (forcing stabilized by 2100) CO2 reaches 538 ppm by 2100 RCP6: Stabilization scenario (forcing does not stabilize by 2100) CO2 reaches 670 ppm by 2100 RCP8.5: Very high GHG emissions scenario CO2 reaches 936 ppm by 2100 Will growing periods be suitable in 30 years for certain crops?
• 14.
  Projections •East Africa StrategicFutures - Food Security, the Environment and Livelihoods •Exploring the future(s) of South East Asia: Four scenarios for agriculture and food security, livelihoods and environments Regional, as well as global, projections to inform local conditions:
• 15.
  Systems analysis • Variousmodel types- incorporating time • Trade-off Analysis • Optimisation • Systems Dynamics • Some key contributions of systems analysis: • Clearer understanding of the ‘solution space’ for action site populations • What are estimates of best-bet options? • What’s plausible? • Enables linkages and comparisons between scales, sites, and systems • Parameterization based on global/regional drivers
• 16.
  Systems analysis • Quantitative,allows for • consideration of magnitudes, relevance and priorities • specified goals and objectives • Ex-ante scenarios provide • testing of change mechanisms and magnitude • sensitivity analysis of context constraints • comparison of effects on households and household types • longer-term perspective through dynamic formulation • Based on primary household data • enables understanding of variation within action site population e.g. will land availability constrain agricultural production in 20 years?
• 17.
  Types of output •Illustratesdiversity between households • possible development pathways of population groups • targeting of interventions •Assesses interventions • estimating household effects (over a number of years) • determining sensitivity to context (considering general development trends) • prioritising interventions (in view of changing contexts) Source: Herrero et al. (2014) Projections of land size and labour price for three case studies (2005-2025) Landsize(ha)Labourprice(€perha) Year
• 18.
  Sources: Van Wijket al. (in prep); Ritzema et al. (in prep); Frelat et al. (in prep) Tanzania: Food Security ratio Types of output For whole farm populations, how these potential changes together with potential interventions can lead to changes in the importance of different on and off farm activities Crop Boost Livestock Boost Off-farm Boost ChangeinFoodSecurityRatio Food Security Ratio categories
• 19.
  Community foresight Explore people’sshort-term (5-10 years) aspirations and concerns – community visioning What constraints are affecting the achievement of desirable outcomes? Which are the opportunities to build on? What actions does the community need to take to reach aspirations? What are the externally-driven changes that the community need to adapt to (e.g. climate change)? How can the interventions address the aspirations, constraints and opportunities?
• 20.
  Visioning and scenario developmentwith the R4D platforms • Start from the global and regional scenarios and major change factors • Scenario development workshop for the action site (2030 and 2050) • Use systems analysis results to enhance projections of the effects of innovations, including the identified and implemented interventions • ‘Half-way’ feed-back to the R4D platform, continue analysis, ‘final’ feed back to R4D platform • Organize a larger action site stakeholder workshop including policy makers, different public and private sectors, etc.
• 21.
  Some challenges How willthe three approaches come together… • Projections will set the broad scene: How are markets changing? How are growing conditions changing? etc. • Systems analysis will set the boundaries for change and model plausible futures • Community foresight will explore the hopes, concerns and expectations of the communities themselves … to be maximally effectively in informing the R4D platform, to produce (through facilitated discussions) a set of recommendations that will lead to desirable outcomes, within the bounds of plausibility, in the context of broader, on-going drivers and changes