Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar Power in India
- 1. Abhik Kumar Das TECHNICAL PAPER PRESENTATION – 9TH MARCH 2017 Director Del2infinity Energy Consulting Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind and Solar Power in India
- 2. • Wind and Solar - Clean but Variable • Variability & intermittency breaks network stability • Scheduling in Solar & Wind power generation is a requirement for grid stability • Regulations regarding Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind and solar are already proposed by CERC, FOR and State Regulators
- 3. Error in Forecast Where AvC is the available capacity; and are actual generation and scheduled generation respectively. Value of m FOR Gujarat Jharkhand Karnataka MP Odisha Rajasthan TN Wind (Old) 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 Wind (New) 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 Solar (Old) 0.15 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 Solar (New) 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05
- 4. Variability in Actual Power generation Regulation, m Measure of Forecast r = correlation coefficient of actual and schedule power generation
- 5. Forecast Error Distribution Normalized frequency distribution of forecast error for different days of (A) solar forecasting and (B) wind forecasting with ‘Single Revision’
- 6. Penalty due to deviation Where c(e) is the penalty due to the error and h(e) can be represented as probability of error in the forecast models. And is defined as the standard deviation of the error distribution. P(m) is the probability the error is under no penalty error band
- 7. Variability in Actual Power generation Regulation, m Measure 1 of Forecast r = correlation coefficient of actual and schedule power generation Measure 2 of Forecast : the standard deviation of the error distribution Penalty due to deviation
- 8. Analysis of
- 9. Need of revision and Phase in
- 10. • A good forecasting methodology is not only a solution having the high forecast accuracy and low penalty due to the deviation, but a solution to maintain the similar or better accuracy in the minimum number of intra-day revisions. • Variability analysis required to minimize the number of revision • In some cases revision is allowable but chargeable similar to the scheduling of other energy sources
- 11. Wind Forecast : 16 Revision
- 12. Solar Forecast : Single Revision
- 13. “THANK YOU”