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Assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards a European perspective 1st Edition David Alexander

Assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards a European perspective 1st Edition David Alexander Assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards a European perspective 1st Edition David Alexander Assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards a European perspective 1st Edition David Alexander

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Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards A European Perspective Edited by Jörn Birkmann United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Stefan Kienberger Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria David E. Alexander Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO
Elsevier 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (+44) (0) 1865 853333; email: permissions@elsevier.com. Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier web site at http://elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material. Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification of diagnoses and drug dosages should be made. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards: a European perspective/[edited by] Jörn Birkmann, Stefan Kienberger, David E. Alexander.   pages cm ISBN 978-0-12-410528-7 (hardback) 1. Natural disasters–Europe. 2. Hazard mitigation–Europe 3. Environmental risk assessment–Europe. 4. Emergency management–Planning–Europe. 5. Human security. I. Birkmann, Jörn. II. Kienberger, Stefan. III. Alexander, David (David E.) GB5008.E87A77 2014 363.34’2064–dc23              2014006590 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-0-12-410528-7 Printed and bound in China 14 15 16 17 18 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For information on all Elsevier publications visit our web site at store.elsevier.com
vii David E. Alexander Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom Marjory Angignard Institute of Spatial Planning, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Alex H. Barbat Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain Jörn Birkmann United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Omar D. Cardona Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Colombia Martha Liliana Carreño Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain Dr Salete Carvalho Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal Diana Contreras Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria Yaella Depietri United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany; Institut de Ciècia i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA),Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain Dr Nicolas Desramaut BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Ground Instabilities and Erosion Risk Unit, Orléans, France Unni Eidswig NGI, Oslo, Norway Dr Manuel Garcin BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Coastal Risks and Climate Change Unit, Orléans, France Thomas Glade Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Stefan Greiving Institute of Spatial Planning, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Christian Iasio Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, EURAC European Academy for Research, Bolzano, Italy Margareth Keiler Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Stefan Kienberger Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria Contributors
Contributors viii Maria Papathoma-Köhle Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Mabel C. Marulanda Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE) Barcelona, Spain Roberto Miniati Department of Information Engineering, University of Florence, Florence, Italy Lydia Pedoth Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, European Academy of Bolzano (EURAC), Bozen/Bolzano, Italy Mark Pelling Department of Geography, King’s College London, The Strand, London, United Kingdom Fabrice Renaud United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Dr Jeremy Rohmer BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Risks of underground Storages and Exploitations, Orléans, France Stefan Schneiderbauer Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, European Academy of Bolzano (EURAC), Bozen/Bolzano, Italy Reinhold Totschnig eb&p Umweltbüro GmbH, Klagenfurt, Austria Dr Fantina Tedim Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal Thorsten Ulbrich Institute of Meteorology, Department of Earth Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin Dr Charlotte Vinchon BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Coastal Risks and Climate Change Unit, Orléans, France Torsten Welle United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Zehra Zaidi Department of Geography, King’s College London, The Strand, London, United Kingdom Peter Zeil Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria
ix Introduction Vulnerability: a key determinant of risk and its importance for risk management and sustainability Jörn Birkmann, Stefan Kienberger, David E. Alexander Bush fires in February 2014 in Norway, extreme heat stress in 2013 in London, and major floods in June 2013 in Central Europe illustrate that communities and states in Europe have to prepare seriously for extreme events and natu- ral hazards. While some phenomena are unexpected, such as the bush fires in Norway during winter, other hazards are more or less well known, such as floods along large river systems. However, similar hazards and extreme events often have quite different impacts and consequences. For example the major earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March 2011, with a magnitude of 9.0Mw (moment magnitude scale) caused about 18,500 fatalities, while the earthquake disaster in Haiti in 2010, which had a magnitude of 7.0Mw—hence about 100 times less powerful than the Tohoku earthquake—resulted in more than 220,000 deaths. Also in Europe, various population groups were exposed to heat stress in 2003, with the loss of between 22,000 and 70,000 deaths (Robine et al., 2008). Mortality and morbidity were particularly high among the elderly. These con- siderations lead to several important questions: l What factors determine risk? l Why did the earthquake in Haiti, with a significantly lower magnitude cause many more fatalities compared to the event in Japan? l Why did so many elderly people died during the European heat wave in 2003? l Which factors have significantly increased the risk of harm and loss of life or property due to extreme events and natural hazards? l Can we measure differences in vulnerability and capacity to respond before such extreme events strike societies? l Can these assessments help to identify relevant intervention measures designed to mitigate risk? This book aims to provide some answers to the questions listed above. It focuses on the development and application of vulnerability assessments to
Introduction x natural hazards in Europe. Vulnerability assessment today is a key endeavor within different scientific communities, such as disaster risk reduction, emer- gency management, and climate change adaptation. In this regard, there is an emerging consensus that extreme events and natural hazards do not necessarily cause extreme impacts and major harm, but rather that the vulnerability of a society, community, or system (infrastructure, social-ecological system, etc.) exposed to the hazard determines whether it translates into disaster. The concept of vulnerability has been used in the English language for 400years, although its origins in Latin (vulnerare, to damage or wound) go back to time immemorial. Vulnerability implies an inherent or innate suscep- tibility to harm and is the antithesis of robustness, resilience, and ability to resist. In terms of human process, it is often seen as the opposite of ability to cope or to bring to bear sufficient capacity to overcome and neutralize harm when it threatens a person or entity. Many more precise definitions of vulnerability have been developed in the various contexts in which it has been used. As a result, in the study of extreme events and disasters it has acquired a variety of meanings and overtones whose proliferation and contrasts have led to a degree of confusion over definitions. For example, does it include fragil- ity, susceptibility, and exposure, or are these separate concepts? Nevertheless, in disaster studies, vulnerability has gradually established itself as a central concept, and many would regard it as the key to understanding the impact of extreme events. To produce disaster, hazards act upon the vulnerable fabric of society, and the vulnerable environment in which society has its being. An extreme but popular view is to treat hazard as merely the trigger of disaster and to argue that society is so complex that the ramifications of its vulnerabil- ity, and associated feedback loops, largely determine the form and magnitude of disaster. Another way of looking at this is that disaster cannot be under- stood, and hence neither can disaster risk, without an intimate knowledge of vulnerability in the various facets and categories in which it is manifest in society and environment. Under conditions of global environmental change, it is expected that Europe will face increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme natural events. At the same time important changes in societal conditions and pre- paredness can be observed in countries and regions in Europe. For example, the demographic change in Germany will most likely lead to a larger number of elderly people, which will make many regions and their populations in Germany more vulnerable to heat stress, particularly as elderly people have only limited physical means to cope with heat stress. In addition, socioeco- nomic changes and modifications in employment situations or social security networks, such as in Greece, might also influence the vulnerability of people who are exposed to natural hazards such as forest fires. Finally, increasing urbanization of hazardous areas, high levels of dependency on critical infra- structure (electricity, gas, water, banking, etc.), and the increasing vulner- ability of particular social groups point to the urgent need to improve, not
Introduction xi only our knowledge about the physical phenomena and hazard characteris- tics, but also vulnerability and its underlying factors in Europe and among its citizens. GOALS OF THE PROJECT This book is based on the outcome of a research project funded by the Euro- pean Commission’s Framework Project FP7. The project was named MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe) and it was designed to: l Enhance the base of knowledge on frameworks and methods for the assess- ment of vulnerability to natural hazards in Europe. l Use indices and indicators to help improve societal and environmental resil- ience by placing emphasis on clear, capable measurement and by accounting for uncertainties. l Identify gaps in existing methodologies for accomplishing these tasks. l Produce a conceptual framework that is independent of scale and hazard type. l Analyze physical, technical, environmental, economic, social, cultural, and institutional vulnerability measured for specific hazards and at different geo- graphical scales. l Study the vulnerability of people and specific infrastructures (e.g., hospitals) to floods, temperature extremes, droughts, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and storms impacts. While the development of a common framework was an important stimulus to discussion and the harmonization of different definitions of vulnerability, the empirical case studies showed that, next to a common metaframework, the characteristics of each case study are specific to its context. The information that they contributed to the study might require the modification of the overall framework. In this respect, the empirical research on the ground allowed to operationalize the different components and factors of vulnerability outlined in the framework for the specific case studies. The project involved substantial participation by stakeholders, who were comprehensively consulted. This provided a basis to explore how these new methods and the information gathered within the vulnerability assessments can be linked to existing evaluation and planning tools. For example, the framework and case studies on flood vulnerability have a strong relevance for policy mak- ers who aim to create a comprehensive and integrated approach to decision making for risk identification and vulnerability reduction. The European Union (EU) Flood Directive onAssessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/ EC), and the subsequent EU Flood Directive Implementation Strategy, lack the ability to address vulnerability in a comprehensive and integrative manner. In
Introduction xii this regard, the MOVE framework and the practical results of the vulnerability assessments of floods demonstrate that flood risk mapping and management will have to consider different dimensions and factors of vulnerability if the aim is to manage and reduce flood risk effectively in Europe. Furthermore, case studies in Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, the United Kingdom, and Portugal show that vulnerability assessment should not be lim- ited to economic loss estimation, as it also requires the consideration of tangible and intangible factors that determine institutional and cultural vulnerability. Hence, the core part of the book is designed to provide essential insights into case studies on how the proposed MOVE framework can be operationalized. The context and the settings of the case studies are extremely diverse, and so are the methods applied, results achieved, and conclusions gained. Urban case studies (such as those conducted in Barcelona and London) demonstrate the complexity of urban environments, but they also highlight the need to achieve a detailed understanding of underlying causal and spatial patterns. Focusing on a range of hazard types (as did the Cologne and South Tyrol case studies) high- lights the difficulties of creating a common framework in an environment of diverse multiple hazards, and it emphasizes the challenge of providing the tools to identify possible “generic” vulnerability factors. Innovative methods range from the modeling of vulnerability regions in a spatially explicit manner that is independent of administrative units (as shown in the Salzach River case study) to the assessment of institutional vulnerabilities (as evinced in the Cologne case study). Moreover, specific assessments of the impact of hazards on health-care systems (as in the Florence case study), coastal erosion, and forest-fire-related assessments (as in case studies from Portugal) point the way toward more holis- tic assessments (such as the Cologne and Salzach case studies) and demonstrate the variety of ways in which vulnerability can be measured under a common framework. Overall, this volume can provide important guidance and methodology on how to translate the complex concept of vulnerability into the practical assess- ments that are essential to the identification of risks and to holistic risk manage- ment approaches. Understanding vulnerability as a crosscutting concept that links disaster risk management, climate change adaptation, and development processes. It can contribute much to the development of integrated policies. In this regard, it is important to note that the nexus between development, risk reduction, and climate change is increasingly receiving attention in European and international policy making. In the ongoing climate change negotiations— particularly in terms of the subprogramme on loss and damage—specific tools and monitoring systems will be developed to assess progress and reduce the risk of loss and damage in the context of both the extreme events and creeping changes that are linked with climate change. The definition of the new Sustain- able Development Goals and the further development of the Hyogo Framework for Action in the post-2015 process require assessment methods to be enhanced and indicators to be developed in order to measure progress toward the chosen
Introduction xiii goals and targets. In this broader context of scientific discourse and policy, this book will provide important input to an improved understanding of essential factors that might determine whether a natural hazard or event can lead to a disaster or crisis. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the practitioners who supported the research and dissemination work conducted within the MOVE project. In addition, a sincere word of thanks go to the exter- nal reviewers and experts of the MOVE project and the different chapters of the volume, ­ particularly to Christian Kuhlicke and John Twigg, Melanie Gall, Hugh Deeming, and Denis Chang Seng for their valuable comments and critique. Furthermore, we are very grateful for the ­ funding received for the project by the European Commission DG Research and the continuous advice received from Mr. Denis Peter. Last, but not least we would also like to thank the Editorial team of Elsevier, especially Louisa Hutchins and Sharmila Vadivelan who ­ provided us with effective and continuous support in terms of the management of the publica- tion process. REFERENCE Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S.L.K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., Herrmann, F.R., 2008. Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C. R. Biol. 331 (2), 171–8.
1 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-410528-7.00001-1 Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards and Climate Change in Europe1 The MOVE Framework Jörn Birkmann*, Omar D. Cardona†, Martha Liliana Carreño§§, Alex H. Barbat¶¶, Mark Pelling‡, Stefan Schneiderbauer§, Stefan Kienberger¶, Margareth Keiler**, David E. Alexander††, Peter Zeil¶ and Torsten Welle* *United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany, †Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Colombia, ‡Department of Geography, King’s College London, The Strand, London, §Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, EURAC, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy, ¶Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria, **Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, ††Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom, ¶¶Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain, §§Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 1. This chapter is based on a paper published in Natural Hazards dealing with the MOVE framework; see in detail Birkmann et al., 2013. Chapter 1 1.1 Introduction   2 1.2 Risk, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Natural Hazards   3 1.2.1 Definitions and Perspectives   3 1.2.1.1 Social Construction of Risk   3 1.2.1.2 Risk and Disasters   4 1.2.1.3 Adaptation and Coping   4 1.2.2  Frameworks on How to Systematize Vulnerability in Different Communities   5 1.2.2.1 Different Frameworks to Systematize and Define Vulnerability 6 Chapter Outline
2 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards 1.1 INTRODUCTION Newest global assessment reports (GAR, 2011; Welle et al., 2012; IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014) underscore that risk reduction and resilience building remains a key challenge for developing and developed countries alike particularly due to the increasing exposure of people and assets in high risk zones and the intensification of extreme events in the context of climate change (see e.g., IPCC, 2013). It is increasingly recognized that natural hazard associated risk and threats to human security cannot be reduced by focusing solely on the hazards. Societies will have to live with changing environmental conditions and therefore need to build resilience by reducing vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment of natu- ral hazards and climate change has emerged in the past decades as an important research field (see e.g., Maskrey, 1984; Chambers, 1989; Pelling, 1997; Cardona, 2001; Birkmann, 2006a,b; Adger, 2006; IPCC, 2007; Bohle, 2008; Bohle and Glade, 2008; Oxfam America, 2009; Birkmann, 2013) bringing together scientists from different disciplines (Fuchs, 2009). The following chapter outlines a frame- work for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM)2 and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; www.move-fp7.eu) spon- sored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program. 2. The term Disaster Risk Management (DRM) also encompasses the concept of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Thus these terms are used almost synonymously. 1.3  Multidimensional and Holistic Perspective: The MOVE Framework   7 1.3.1  Goals of the Framework   7 1.3.2  Key Factors of Vulnerability within the MOVE Framework   8 1.3.2.1 Multidimensional Vulnerability 9 1.3.2.2  Risk and Risk Governance 10 1.3.2.3 Adaptation  10 1.3.3 Theoretical Grounding of the Concept: System Thinking and Nonlinearity   11 1.4 The Application: Criteria and Indicators   11 1.5 Challenges and Outlook   13 References   14
3 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment 1.2 RISK, VULNERABILITY, AND ADAPTATION TO NATURAL HAZARDS 1.2.1 Definitions and Perspectives The concept of vulnerability is today a core concept that links important research communities, particularly DRM, CCA, and development research. However, defi- nitions of vulnerability are contested and research on vulnerability is underpinned by multiple disciplinary theories based upon natural or social science epistemolo- gies. This results in a range of paradigms for approaching vulnerability and is sup- ported by qualitative and quantitative assessment methodologies (Pelling, 2001; Birkmann, 2006a,b; O’Brien et al., 2007; Birkmann, 2013; Fuchs, 2009). The natural science research communities often focus on the quantification of differentfactorsofvulnerability(e.g.,Kienbergeretal.,2009;O’Brienetal.,2007). The aim of these approaches—particularly regarding physical vulnerability—is to define and quantify damage ranges illustrated through vulnerability curves in order to help determine acceptable levels of potential losses (Papathoma-Köhle et al., 2011). Social science approaches often encompass a broad focus and exam- ine, in particular, the likelihood that an individual household or a community will suffer harm or experience losses related to environmental hazards, as well as the context conditions that influence social vulnerability (DFID, 1999; Wisner et al., 2004). In this context, Phillips and Fordham (2009) emphasize that social vulner- ability to natural hazards is driven by social inequality and is deeply embedded in social structures that are often resistant to change (Phillips and Fordham, 2009). Besides a clear differentiation of risk and vulnerability, the MOVE framework aims at integrating the concept of adaptation in vulnerability assessments to natu- ral hazards. In this way, the MOVE framework seeks to enhance the DRR per- spective by integrating new understanding of coupling, adaptation, and resilience. In this regard, the framework might also serve as a tool to link particularly the DRR and CCA community as well as the resilience research community. Before discussing the different components of the framework and the key factors of vulnerability in more depth, it is essential to outline the basic under- standing of disaster risk and vulnerability as well as adaptation applied within the context of the framework. 1.2.1.1 Social Construction of Risk The concept of vulnerability underscores the social construction of risk and is supported empirically by a range of studies applying vulnerability to help understand risk to hazards, including those with a focus on climate change (Aysan, 1993; Blaikie et al., 1996; Wisner et al., 2004). Vulnerability refers to the propensity of exposed elements such as physical or capital assets, as well as human beings and their livelihoods, to experience harm and suffer damage and loss when impacted by single or compound hazard events (UNDRO, 1980; Tim- merman, 1981; Maskrey, 1984; Cardona, 1986, 1990; Liverman, 1990; Cannon, 1994, 2006; Blaikie et al., 1996; UNISDR, 2004, 2009; Birkmann, 2006b,c; Cutter et al., 2003; Cutter and Finch, 2008; Cutter et al., 2008). While there
4 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards is broad agreement on the aspects of the social construction of risk (Cham- bers, 1989; Cannon, 1994; Lavell, 1999; Wisner, 2006; Carreño et al., 2007a,b; Cardona, 2004), it is at the level of measurement where the challenge remains. The difficulty lies in assessing the various dimensions of vulnerability and its mul- tifaceted and dynamic nature (see e.g., Birkmann, 2006b,c; Birkmann, 2013). 1.2.1.2 Risk and Disasters While risk and vulnerability can be seen as continuums, a disaster is but a moment or materialization of these underlying conditions. Dynamic changes of vulnerability and hazard phenomena also mean that risk is nonstatic; it changes over time and these changes have to be considered when applying specific assessments, as well as when developing corrective (current risk) or prospective (future risk) interventions. Overall, disasters are the product of a complex relationship between the physical environment, both the natural and built environment, and society; its behavior, function, organization, and devel- opment, including human perception (Quarantelli, 1998). The term disaster often refers to a social condition whereby the normal functioning of a social system has been severely interrupted by the levels of loss, damage, and impact suffered (Cardona, 1990; Alexander, 1993, 2000; Birkmann, 2006b). How- ever, disaster can also function as a catalyst for change (see e.g., Birkmann et al., 2010). Pelling and Dill (2010) demonstrate how disasters and crises can also catalyze reorganization and learning processes in communities or societ- ies, often accelerating underlying policy and social trajectories. The concept of resilience has developed in different schools of thought, such as ecology (e.g., Holling, 1973), psychology (e.g., Bonanno et al., 2006; Bonanno, 2008), social-ecological systems research (e.g., Berkes et al., 2003; Folke, 2006), and critical infrastructures (e.g., Boin and McConnell, 2007). In general, resilience research is concerned with the ability of a system or a person to deal with disturbances and the effect of stressors. In addition, resilience research, par- ticularly with regard to social-ecological systems or infrastructures, focuses on capacities of systems to reorganize themselves in the face of adverse events through processes described as revolt and remember and respective innovation processes. Within the framework, we refer to resilience mainly in terms of the lack of resilience, hence the limited capacities to cope or to recover in the face of adverse consequences. At the same time we acknowledge that “improving resilience” is part of adaptation within our framework. Hence the resilience concept is attributed to two core components of the MOVE framework: coping and adaptation. 1.2.1.3 Adaptation and Coping Adaptation in early reports of the IPCC has not received much attention, since the overall perception was that too much emphasis on adaptation would contra- dict strict goals for the reduction of green house gas emissions. However, today
5 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment adaptation is a core concept with the climate change context and goes far beyond a rather biological and reactive understanding of adjustment. Hence, adaptation presents itself as a continuous property, with levels of adaptive capacity changing over time as the status of vulnerability components identified above change and the demands of a shifting risk environment alter the appropriateness of particular asset bundles for risk reduction (Pelling, 2001). Such changes can be a result of disaster events but also everyday processes of development. It should be noted that adaptation is distinct from coping. Coping we see as an aspect of resilience that signifies the “here and now” capacity and includes a set of actions avail- able to those at risk. Coping in this way is part of the formula that determines vulnerability at any one moment in time. However, coping mainly deals with the conservation and protection of the current system and institutional settings (see Birkmann, 2010). Adaptation, by contrast, denotes a longer-term and constantly unfolding process of learning, experimentation, and change that feeds into vul- nerability. Adaptation can be felt acting to shape all aspects of vulnerability and is observable through the systems and outcomes of learning—planned and spon- taneous, pre and postdisaster (Pelling, 2010). This understanding of adaptation is commensurate with the emerging consensus from climate change (see Kelly and Adger, 2000;Yohe and Tol, 2002; Pelling, 2010) where coping is seen to describe actions taken within existing constraints (including vision and knowledge), and adaptation signifies change in the framing institutions. 1.2.2 Frameworks on How to Systematize Vulnerability in Different Communities In recent years different frameworks have been developed to systematize risk, different facets of vulnerability and resilience (see overview in Birkmann, 2013). Thomalla et al. (2006) and Mitchell and van Aalst (2009) examine commonalities and differences between the CCA and DRM communities and identify key areas of convergence. They conclude that the two communities perceive the nature and timescale of the threat differently: if impacts due to climate change are surrounded by uncertainty, considerable knowledge and cer- tainty exists about the event characteristics and exposures related to extreme environmental conditions based on historical experience. However, it has to be acknowledged that climate change challenges the historical knowledge of natu- ral hazard events, particularly due to the modification of frequency and intensity of such events (Keiler et al., 2010). CCA increasingly places emphasis on improving the capacity of govern- ments and communities to address existing vulnerabilities to current climate variability and climatic extremes (Thomalla et al., 2006). Echoing the long- standing concerns of the disaster management community for a more socially informed approach to risk management (e.g., Hewitt, 1983; Burton et al., 1993) and from the climate change community, O’Brien et al. (2004) call for an inte- gration of “underlying causes” of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in climate
6 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards change impact assessments rather than only focusing on adaptive capacity and technical measures. Furthermore, Birkmann and Teichman (2010) argue that the DRM and the CCA communities differ particularly in terms of the spatial, tem- poral, and functional scales applied within their research. Additionally, Romieu et al. (2010) examined different frameworks and assessment approaches used within CCA and DRM. They concluded that differences are particularly linked to process (stress versus shock), scale (temporal, functional, and spatial), assess- ment approach (statistical versus prospective), and levels of uncertainty. 1.2.2.1 Different Frameworks to Systematize and Define Vulnerability The DRM and CCA communities share common roots in social and political science, however, four distinct approaches to understanding vulnerability and risk can be identified. The four approaches are not contradictory but rather approach risk from a specific viewpoint and with particular ends in mind—from the unearthing of systems linkages from the global to the local to the search for quantifiable risk measures. This section provides a brief overview of each approach to help illustrate the key differences and similarities behind these ways of conceptualizing and measuring risk and its components. Each approach has been considered in the production of the integrated framework proposed in this paper. The four approaches can be distinguished between those that are rooted in (1) political economy; (2) social-ecology; (3) vulnerability and disaster risk assessment from a holistic view; and (4) climate change systems science. The political economy approach can be illustrated by the pressure and release (PAR) model published in Blaikie et al. (1994) and Wisner et al. (2004). This links vulnerability to unsafe conditions and discrete risk in a continuum of vulnerability that connects local risk to wider national and global shifts in the political economy of resources and political power. Associated with this approach and operating across development studies more generally is the Sus- tainable Livelihood Framework (see DFID, 1999).Applied in risk contexts most commonly to help understand household impacts and coping when faced with food insecurity, the framework successfully unpacks the range of assets that are at risk and can be used to generate security from disaster. Importantly from a political economy perspective, the framework directs attention to the ways in which the organizational, institutional, and political context helps to shape local capacity—but also recognizes that these structures are reproduced through the actions of individuals and households. The social-ecology perspective empha- sizes the need to focus on coupled human-environmental systems when dealing with the assessment of risk. The best known visualization of this approach has been developed and published by Turner et al. (2003). Compared to political economy, the perspective of social ecology stresses the transformative quali- ties of society with regard to nature—and also the effects of changes in the environment on social and economic systems. It argues that the exposure and
7 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment susceptibility of a system can only be adequately understood if these coupling processes and interactions are addressed. Comprehensive perspectives from vulnerability and disaster risk assess- ment have tried to develop an integrated explanation of risk. These approaches particularly differentiate exposure, susceptibility, and societal response capaci- ties or the lack of resilience (see Cardona, 1999a,b, 2001, 2010; IDEA, 2005; Birkmann, 2006a; Carreño, 2006; Carreño et al., 2007a,b; Birkmann and Fernando, 2008; Barbat et al., 2011; Carreño et al., 2012). A core element of these approaches is a feedback-loop system which underlines that vulnerability is dynamic and that vulnerability assessment cannot be limited to the identifi- cation of deficiencies, but rather also take into account the potential feedback loops and intervention tools that exist or can be developed in order to reduce vulnerability. Moreover, the approaches of so called integrative and holistic frameworks also incorporate the perspective of sustainable development into the assessment of vulnerability (Birkmann, 2006b). The fourth school of thought emerged within the context of CCA (see e.g., Füssel and Klein, 2006). Most of these approaches focus closely on the defi- nition of vulnerability used by the IPCC (AR4). Vulnerability in this regard is understood as a function of exposure, sensitivity,3 and adaptive capacities (Füssel, 2007a,b; McCarthy et al., 2001; IPCC, 2007; O’Brien et al., 2008a,b). These frameworks, however, differ from the understanding of vulnerability in the DRM community in that they take into account the rate and magnitude of climate change. This introduces a critical distinction between the understanding of vulnerability within climate change and the other schools of thought dis- cussed above. The concept of vulnerability here includes external environmen- tal factors of shock or stress. Hence, in this view, the magnitude and frequency of potentially hazardous events is to be included in the calculation of vulner- ability to climate change and hence, the vulnerability concept shifts toward a risk definition. 1.3 MULTIDIMENSIONAL AND HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE: THE MOVE FRAMEWORK 1.3.1 Goals of the Framework A key goal when developing the MOVE framework was to provide an improved conceptualization of the multifaceted nature of vulnerability, accounting for key causal factors such as exposure, susceptibility, lack of resilience (lack of soci- etal response capacities), as well as for the different thematic dimensions of vulnerability: physical, social, ecological, economic, cultural, and institutional. 3. Interestingly, the term sensitivity means different things to different communities; however, the actual factors used to assess sensitivity of a system in CCA can be closely linked to factors that are used to characterize susceptibility or fragility in the DRM context.
8 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards Additionally, the framework incorporates the concept of adaptation into DRM, and therewith explicitly differentiates coping from adaptation. The MOVE conceptual framework (see Figure 1.1) underlines that hazards are of natural or socio-natural origin while vulnerability in its multifaceted nature is mainly linked to societal conditions and processes. 1.3.2 Key Factors of Vulnerability within the MOVE Framework At its core, the MOVE framework differentiates key factors of vulnerability and shows the different thematic dimensions of vulnerability. The key factors of vulnerability are defined as follows: 1. Exposure describes the extent to which a unit of assessment falls within the geographical range of a hazard event. Exposure extends to fixed physical attributes of social systems (infrastructure) but also human systems (liveli- hoods, economies, cultures) that are spatially bound to specific resources and practices that may also be exposed. Exposure is then qualified in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. 2. Susceptibility (or fragility) describes the predisposition of elements at risk (social and ecological) to suffer harm. Although susceptibility and fragility imply subtle differences in various concepts, we mainly use them synonymously ,ĂnjĂƌĚ ŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶ sƵůŶĞƌĂďŝůŝƚLJ ŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶ ^ƵƐĐĞƉƟďŝůŝƚLJ ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶ džƉŽƐƵƌĞ ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶ ZĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚ Z Z ZŝƐ ŝƐ ŝƐŬ Ŭ ŬŐŽ ŐŽ ŐŽǀĞ ǀĞ ǀĞƌŶ ƌŶ ƌŶĂŶ ĂŶ ĂŶĐĞ ĐĞ ĐĞ ZŝƐŬŐŽǀĞƌŶĂŶĐĞ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ͬ WůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ͬ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶͬWůĂŶŶŝŶŐͬ /ŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ /ŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ ^ƵďŶĂƟŽŶĂů ў ŽĐĂůƐĐĂůĞ ŽĐĂůƐĐĂůĞ /ŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐ ŽƵƉůŝŶŐ $GDSWDWLRQ džƉŽƐƵƌĞ dĞŵƉŽƌĂů ^ƉĂƟĂů sƵůŶĞƌĂďŝůŝƚLJ WŚLJƐŝĐĂů ĂĐŬŽĨ ƌĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞ ĂƉĂĐŝƚLJƚŽ ĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞ ĂƉĂĐŝƚLJƚŽ ĐŽƉĞ ĂƉĂĐŝƚLJƚŽ ƌĞĐŽǀĞƌ ^ƵƐĐĞƉƟďŝůŝƚLJ ĂŶĚĨƌĂŐŝůŝƚLJ ŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚ ŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚ 6RFLHW 6RFLHW ,ĂnjĂƌĚƐ EĂƚƵƌĂůĞǀĞŶƚƐͬ^ŽĐŝŽͲŶĂƚƵƌĂůĞǀĞŶƚƐ ĐŽůŽŐŝĐĂů ^ŽĐŝĂů /ŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶĂů ƵůƚƵƌĂů ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ FIGURE 1.1 The MOVE framework. Own figure, based particularly on concepts of Cardona, 1999a, 2001, p. 65; Turner et al., 2003; Bogardi and Birkmann, 2004; IDEA, 2005; Birkmann, 2006b; Carreño et al., 2007a; see also Birkmann et al., 2013.
9 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment within the meta-framework in order to emphasize the core differences between exposure, susceptibility, and lack of resilience. In this context, susceptibility (or fragility) can be calculated and addressed often independent of exposure. 3. Lack of resilience or societal response capacity is determined by limitations in terms of access to and mobilization of the resources of a community or a social- ecological system in responding to an identified hazard. This includes preevent risk reduction, in-time coping, and postevent response measures. Compared to adaptation processes and adaptive capacities, these capacities focus mainly on the ability to maintain the system in light of a hazard event impacting the sys- tem or element exposed. In this sense, the capacity to anticipate, the capacity to cope, and the capacity to recover can include significant changes to existing practices around a referent hazard event/scenario but does not include learning based on the potential for future change in hazard and vulnerability contexts. However, the concept of resilience also includes learning and reorganization processes, and therefore is positioned as a subcomponent of the adaptation box. Compared to the key factor “lack of resilience”, which refers to existing capacities, the adaptation box also deals with the ability of a community or a system to learn from past disasters and to change existing practices for poten- tial future changes in hazards as well as vulnerability contexts. 4. Hazard is used to describe the potential occurrence of natural, socio-natural, or anthropogenic events that may have physical, social, economic, and envi- ronmental impact in a given area and over a period of time. Therefore, haz- ard is defined by the potentiality of geodynamics or hydro-meteorological processes to cause effects upon exposed elements. In addition, the concept of coupling emphasizes the framework’s assertion that any defined hazard is given form and meaning by interaction with social systems, and similarly, social systems are influenced by their actual and perceived hazard context. 1.3.2.1 Multidimensional Vulnerability In addition to key factors of vulnerability, core thematic dimensions of vulner- ability have to be addressed within a holistic assessment process. Key thematic components are explained as follows: l Social dimension: propensity for human well-being to be damaged by disrup- tion to individual (mental and physical health) and collective (health, edu- cation services, etc.) social systems and their characteristics (e.g., gender, marginalization of social groups). l Economic dimension: propensity for loss of economic value from damage to physical assets and/or disruption of productive capacity. l Physical dimension: potential for damage to physical assets including built-up areas, infrastructure, and open spaces. l Cultural dimension: potential for damage to intangible values including meanings placed on artifacts, customs, habitual practices, and natural or urban landscapes.
10 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards l Environmental dimension: potential for damage to all ecological and biophys- ical systems and their different functions. This includes particular ecosystem functions and environmental services (see e.g., Renaud, 2006) but excludes cultural values that might be attributed. l Institutional vulnerability: potential for damage to governance systems, orga- nizational form and function, as well as guiding formal/legal and informal/ customary rules—any of which may be forced to change following weak- nesses exposed by disaster and response. The majority of assets and systems exposed to hazard will exhibit more than one dimension of vulnerability. 1.3.2.2 Risk and Risk Governance In contrast to vulnerability, risk is defined as the probability of harmful con- sequences or losses resulting from interactions between hazard and vulnerable conditions. It is the potential for physical, social, economic, environmental, cultural, or institutional consequences or losses, in a given area and over a period of time (see UNISDR, 2004). In addition, risk governance is linked to decisions and actions performed by formal stakeholders such as govern- ments or different governmental institutions and informal stakeholders (individual households) that include tasks on risk reduction, prevention, miti- gation, and transfer, and also preparedness and disaster management (see e.g., Renn, 2008). 1.3.2.3 Adaptation Adaptation and adaptive capacities describe techniques, assets, and strategies applied or available to intervene in vulnerability; i.e., manage exposure, sus- ceptibility, and resilience at any one moment in time. Compared to the concept of coping, adaptation here is understood as a mechanism and response capac- ity that also aims to change existing institutional and organizational structures and hence does intend to modify the system; while coping is associated with capacities to maintain a system as it is in the face of adverse consequences. In this regard, resilience building and improvement is seen as a component of adaptation. Compared to capacities to cope or to recover (classified as the “lack of resilience”), resilience in the adaptation box refers to learning and reorgani- zation processes in the light of potential future changes and hazards, as well as potential changes in vulnerability. Consequently, the concept of resilience is dif- ferentiated into (1) a more reactive part that refers to the lack of resilience, while (2) the ability to learn and to reorganize in anticipation of future changes (pro- active actions) are linked to the notion of adaptation. While coping capacities and resilience are primarily linked to capacities that help to maintain the current status of the systems under stress, adaptation as a concept implies actions aimed at making more profound change in socio-ecological relations (see e.g., Pelling, 2010; Birkmann, 2010, 2013).
11 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment 1.3.3 Theoretical Grounding of the Concept: System Thinking and Nonlinearity In terms of the underlying theoretical concept, the framework is based on and refers to general systems theory, cybernetics and interlinked systems theory (see e.g., Vester, 2008). It underlines that vulnerability and risk are embedded in pro- cesses and therefore have a dynamic nature—they change over time. Although this has been stressed by different authors in the past (see e.g., Keiler et al., 2006; Bründl et al., 2010), many vulnerability and risk assessment approaches in the context of natural hazards and climate change still do not account for capacities to cope and to adapt and hence do not link their thinking to newer approaches in the context of disaster risk reduction and CCA. Compared with the linear understanding of feedback and response processes held by cybernetic theory and the idea that systems can be steered more or less easily, the MOVE framework is based on the understanding that risks also involve complexity and the emergence of different vulnerability as well as response patterns to risks observed. This thinking can build on a legacy of engagement with cybernet- ics in the geographical tradition of hazards studies (Cardona, 2001, 2010; Hil- horst, 2004; Pelling, 2010). Critics argued that while the cybernetic approach had made progress in providing a framework that recognized social context as a mediating pressure on the environment, it did not have the conceptual tools to analyze these relationships. Deeper social relations of production and power were not included. Current perspectives on adaptation, vulnerability, and risk to climate change developed from systems thinking within the socio-ecological systems school have made some advances in integrating power dynamics into models of risk (see e.g., Gunderson and Holling, 2002). The policy warning is that social sys- tems will change in time driven either by environmental crisis or preemptive risk management (Handmer and Dovers, 1996). It is possible to insert power into this analysis through the interaction of institutions or structures and agency in cycles of adaptation. The challenge here is to understand under which condi- tions institutions and decision makers are able to deal with interacting social and ecological crises (Galaz et al., 2011). 1.4 THE APPLICATION: CRITERIA AND INDICATORS The MOVE framework is first and foremost a thinking tool, however, it also served as an important guiding vision for the development of specific criteria and indicators that allow to assess vulnerability in different cities and regions in Europe and worldwide. Within the application of the framework and the devel- opment of concrete assessment tools, the constraints and limits of the frame- work become evident. However, interestingly, various case studies presented in this volume show that many case studies could apply the framework within the empirical research process or selected components of it.
12 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards The case studies dealing with seismic risk in Barcelone (Spain) and the flood vulnerability assessment in the Salzach River Basin as well as the floods in Cologne use various core factors of vulnerability outlined in the MOVE frame- work within their assessment. In this regard, important indicators for assess- ing (1) exposure, (2) susceptibility, and (3) response capacities in terms of the lack of resilience (lack of coping or recovery capacities) as well as adaptation processes are shown. Consequently, the framework can be operationalized for specific assessments. More specific vulnerability and risk assessments are con- ducted within the context of the healthcare system in Florence (Italy) and the heatwave vulnerability and risk management capacities in London (UK). Vul- nerability assessments to forest fires and coastal erosion is demonstrated within the case study of Portugal and a vulnerability assessment to mass movements in mountainous environments is show with the case study of South Tyrol. Overall, the examples show that most of the components of the MOVE framework can be applied as a basis for developing and differentiating indica- tors and criteria for vulnerability assessment within the broader context of risk management and risk governance. However, the interested reader will also find important differences in the operationalization and further concretization of dif- ferent vulnerability factors and concepts such as adaptation and coping. These differences could be seen as a cacophony of the concept and term again; how- ever, we view these differences and specific perspectives also as an important part of the contextualization of the general MOVE framework and the concept of vulnerability. That means compared to a standardized natural hazard assess- ment, for example, in terms of earthquake hazards using the Richter or Moment Magnitude scale, vulnerability about societal conditions and hence has to be translated and operationalized within a specific context. Consequently, some indicators and core factors of vulnerability might need to be interpreted differ- ently or have to include additional information and indicators in order to make sense for the specific spatial, cultural, or socio-economic context. The core mes- sage that the MOVE framework provides for DRM and CCA is that even if the exposure of people or infrastructures or ecosystems is similar, the vulnerability of different groups, infrastructures, and ecosystems is most likely to be differ- ent, since vulnerability is differential. For example, in the case of the assess- ment of social vulnerability in Barcelona, low-income groups and low-income urban areas were used as proxies to assess particularly vulnerable groups and areas. The lack of institutional resilience was assessed by using expert inter- views and a benchmark index for preparedness and the capacity of different agencies to deal with earthquake-related disasters (rescue teams, fire brigades, etc.) in Barcelona. Hence, the assessment of response capacities requires a more precise understanding of the hazard and specific vulnerabilities that should be considered when evaluating response and preparedness strategies and capaci- ties. Overall, the case studies provide a rich overview of different vulnerability facets and the approach to systematize important information according to the framework outlined before.
13 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment 1.5 CHALLENGES AND OUTLOOK Against the background of the diverse approaches and assessment methods used in DRM and CCA, the MOVE framework presented and the further applica- tion of it in case study cities or regions (see case study chapters) shows that a common meta-approach can be achieved linking different approaches and research communities. In this regard it is also important to note that the MOVE framework and its discussion also informed particularly the new framing of risk management within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC Special report on “Managing the Risk of Extreme Events to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” is based on this broader framing of vulnerability and the understanding that extreme events do not necessarily cause extreme impacts. Rather the new framework of the IPCC underscores that next to the physical phenomena (e.g., hazard or extreme weather event), exposure and vulnerability are key in determining whether such extreme events can cause extreme impacts (see IPCC, 2012). As a heuristic, the MOVE framework is a thinking tool to guide systemic assessment processes and the development of indicators, which for example could be described in specific guiding documents (Vinchon et al., 2011). How- ever, the framework does not provide a specific assessment method (qualitative or quantitative) or a predefined list of indicators. Rather, it outlines key factors and different dimensions of vulnerability that can serve as a basis for a system- atic operationalization of vulnerability (see the following chapters). The frame- work stresses the fact that many interactions that shape vulnerability are dynamic (change over time) and characterized by nonlinearity and place-specific factors. Thus, the application of the framework has to consider the place-specific charac- teristics that influence vulnerability and its components as well as the coupling processes between social and environmental systems. In addition, this framework considers different scales: not only recognizing the fact that certain characteris- tics are typical or only valid at a certain scales (e.g., community versus global assessment) but also reflecting the fact that specific scales (spatial and temporal scales) correspond with different needs of stakeholders and institutions operating at different times and spatial ranges. The specific translation of the framework into concrete measures also depends on the research object or subject (social group, physical buildings, socio-ecological systems) and the hazard context. An important benefit of the framework can be seen in the ability to straddle multiple approaches and epistemologies in natural and social sciences and DRM. Instead of focusing solely on the deficiencies of a community or incapacities of different social groups or social-ecological systems, the concept and its application shows that vulnerable groups or systems have also developed capacities that help them to survive or deal with changing environmental conditions. Lastly, the framework is easy to understand for different disciplines and therefore enables and promotes the communication process between different communities, particularly between the DRM and CCA community. In this con- text, the framework also has a strong relevance for policy makers that aim to
14 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards base their decisions on a comprehensive and integrative approach of vulnerabil- ity and risk identification. For example, the EU Flood Directive on Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC) and the subsequent EU Flood Directive Implementation Strategy lack to address vulnerability in a compre- hensive and integrative approach. In this regard, the framework could be used to inform agencies responsible for carrying out flood risk maps in the context of the directive, in terms of providing them with a broader overview of the various dimensions and key factors that should be considered within a holistic approach. However, challenges remain with regard to the implementation of the frame- work and its key components in highly diverse hazards and cultural context situations. In particular, the intangible factors that determine institutional or cul- tural vulnerability are difficult to capture and to assess. However, the selected examples shown in the table provide an illustration on how one can capture these rather intangible aspects within such assessments. Hence, it is proven that these facets of vulnerability can be translated into assessable criteria and indicators. REFERENCES Adger, W.N., 2006. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16 (3), 268–281. Alexander, D.E., 1993. Natural Disasters. UCL Press Limited, London. Alexander, D.E., 2000. Confronting Catastrophe. Terra Publishing, Harpenden. Aysan, Y., 1993. Vulnerability assessment. In: Merriman, P.A., Browitt, C.W.A. (Eds.), Natural Disasters: Protecting Vulnerable Communities(London). Barbat, A.H., Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Marulanda, M.C., 2011. Evaluación holística del riesgo sísmico en zonas urbanas. Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos para Cálculo y Diseño en Ingeniería 27, 3–27. Berkes, F., Colding, J., Folke, C., 2003. Introduction. In: Berkes, F., Colding, J., Folke, C. (Eds.), Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change. Cambridge University Press, Boston? London? Birkmann, J. (Ed.), 2013. Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards - Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. , Second ed.United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris. Birkmann, J. (Ed.), 2006a. Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards - Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris. Birkmann, J., 2006b. Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: conceptual frameworks and definitions. In: Birkmann, J. (Ed.), Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Haz- ards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris, pp. 9–54. Birkmann, J., 2006c. Indicators and criteria for measuring vulnerability: theoretical bases and require- ments. In: Birkmann, J. (Ed.), Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards - Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, NewYork, Paris, pp. 55–77. Birkmann, J., 2010. Regulation and coupling of society and nature in the context of natural hazards – different theoretical approaches and conceptual frameworks and their applicability to analyse social-ecological crises phenomena. In: Brauch, H.G., Oswald Spring, U., Mesjasz, C., Grin, J., Kameri-Mbote, P., Chourou, B., Dunay, P., Birkmann, J. (Eds.), Coping with Global Envi- ronmental Change, Disasters and Security - Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol. 5. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York.
15 Chapter | 1 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment Birkmann, J., Buckle, P., Jaeger, J., Pelling, M., Setiadi, N., Garschagen, M., Fernando, N., Kropp, J., 2010. Extreme events and disasters: a window of opportunity for change? Analysis of changes, formal and informal responses after mega-disasters. Natural Hazards 55 (3), 637–655. Birkmann, J., Cardona, O.D., Carreno, L., Barbat, A., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Kelier, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., Welle, T., 2013. Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural Hazards 67 (2), 193–211. Birkmann, J., Fernando, N., 2008. Measuring revealed and emergent vulnerabilities of coastal com- munities to Tsunamis in Sri Lanka. Disasters 32 (1), 82–104. Birkmann, J., von Teichman, K., 2010. Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adap- tation: key challenges—scales, knowledge, and norms. Sustainability Science 5 (2), 171–184. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., Wisner, B., 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People, Vulnerability, and Disasters. Routledge, London. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., Wisner, B., 1996. Vulnerabilidad, el Entorno Social de los Desas- tres. La RED-ITDG, Bogota, D.C. Bogardi, J., Birkmann, J., 2004. Vulnerability assessment: the first step towards sustainable risk reduction. In: Malzahn, D., Plapp, T. (Eds.), Disasters and Society – from Hazard Assessment to Risk Reduction. Logos, Berlin, pp. 75–82. Bohle, H.-G., 2008. Krisen, Katastrophen, Kollaps – Geographien von Verwundbarkeit in der Risikogesellschaft. In: Kulke, E., Popp, H. (Eds.), Umgang mit Risiken. Katastrophen – Desta- bilisierung – Sicherheit. Lausitzer Druck- und Verlagshaus GmbH, Bayreuth, pp. 69–82. Deutscher Geographentag 2007, Bautzen. Bohle, H.-G., Glade, T., 2008. Vulnerabilitätskonzepte in Sozial- und Naturwissenschaften. In: Fel- gentreff, C., Glade, T. (Eds.), Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Spektrum Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 99–119. Boin, A., McConnell, A., 2007. Preparing for critical infrastructure breakdowns: the limits of crisis management and the need for resilience. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 15 (1), 50–59. Bonanno, G.A., Galea, S., Bucciarelli, A., Vlahov, D., 2006. Psychological resilience after disaster: New York City in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attack. Psychological Science 17 (3), 181–186. Bonanno, G., 2008. Loss, trauma, and human resilience: have we underestimated the human capac- ity to thrive after extremely aversive events? American Psychologis 59 (1), 20–28. Bründl, M., Bartelt, P., Schweizer, J., Keiler, M., Glade, T., 2010. Snow avalanche risk analysis - review and future challenges. In: Alcantara-Ayla, I., Goudie, A. (Eds.), Geomorphological Hazards and Disaster. Cambridge University Press, Boston, pp. 49–61. Burton, I., Kates, R.W., White, G.F., 1993. The Environment as Hazard. Guildford Press, London. Cannon, T., 1994. Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of ‘Natural’ disasters. In: Varley, A. (Ed.), Disasters, Development and Environment. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, pp. 13–29. Cannon, T., 2006. Vulnerability analysis, livelihoods and disasters. In: Ammann, W.J., Dannen- mann, S., Vulliet, L. (Eds.), Risk 21: Coping with Risks Due to Natural Hazards in the 21st Century. Taylor and Francis Group plc, London, pp. 41–49. Cardona, O.D., 1986. Estudios de Vulnerabilidad y Evaluación del Riesgo Sísmico: Planificación Física y Urbana en Áreas Propensas. Boletín Técnico de la Asociación Colombiana de Ingeni- ería Sismica 33 (2), 32–65. Cardona, O.D., 1990. Terminología de Uso Común en Manejo de Riesgos. AGID Reporte No. 13, EAFIT. In: Fernández, M.A. (Ed.), Medellín, actualizado y reimpreso en ciudades en riesgo. La RED, USAID. Cardona, O.D., 1999a. Diagnóstico local de riesgos naturales en Santa Fe de Bogotá para la planifi- cación y medidas de mitigación. Panamericana-Secretaría de Salud, Bogotá, D.C.
16 Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards Cardona, O.D., 1999b. Environmental management and disaster prevention: two related topics. In: Fernandez, M.A. (Ed.), Cities at Risk: Environmental Degradation, Urban Risks and Disasters in Latin America. A/H Editorial, La RED, US AID, Quito, pp. 77–102. Cardona, O.D., 2001. Estimación Holística del Riesgo Sísmico utilizando Sistemas Dinámicos Complejos.(Doctoral dissertation) Technical University of Catalonia, Department of Terrain Engineering. Available from: http://www.desenredando.org/public/varios/2001/ehrisusd/index. html. Cardona, O.D., 2004. The need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective risk management. In: Bankoff, G., Frerks, G., Hilhorst, D. (Eds.), Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People. Publishers, London, pp. 37–51. Cardona, O.D., 2011. Disaster risk and vulnerability: notions and measurement of human and envi- ronmental insecurity. In: Brauch, H.G., Oswald Spring, U., Mesjasz, C., Grin, J., Kameri-Mbote, P., Chourou, B., Dunay, P., Birkmann, J. (Eds.), Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security - Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace Vol. 5. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, pp. 107-121. Carreño, M.L., 2006. Técnicas innovadoras para la evaluación del riesgo sísmico y su gestión en centros urbanos: Acciones ex ante y ex post(Doctoral dissertation) Technical University of Cat- alonia, Department of Terrain Engineering. Available from: http://www.tdx.cat/TDX-1102106- 110455. Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Barbat, A.H., 2007a. Urban seismic risk evaluation: a holistic approach. Natural Hazards 40 (1), 137–172. Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Barbat, A.H., 2007b. Disaster risk management performance index. Natural Hazards 41 (1), 1–20. Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Barbat, A.H., 2012. New methodology for urban seismic risk assess- ment from a holistic perspective. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 10 (2), 547–565. Chambers, Robert, 1989. Vulnerability, coping and policy. Institute of Development Studies Bul- letin 20 (2), 1–7. Cutter, S., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., Webb, J., 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), 598–606. Cutter, S., Finch, C., 2008. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. PNAS 105 (7), 2301–2306. Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J., Shirley, W.L., 2003. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly 84 (2003), 242–261. DFID (Department for International Development), 1999. Sustainable Livelihood Guidance Sheets. (London). Folke, C., 2006. Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16, 253–267. Fuchs, S., 2009. Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria – paradigms of vulnerability revisited. Natural Hazards and the Earth System Sciences 9, 337–352. Füssel, H.M., 2007a. Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches and key lessons. Sustainability Science 2 (2), 265–275. Füssel, H.M., 2007b. Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change 17 (2), 155–167. Füssel, H.M., Klein, R., 2006. Climate change vulnerability assessment: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Climatic Change 75 (3), 301–329.
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They were down at the wharf at a quarter to six. As the clock struck the hour William Martyn came down. “Good-morning, youngster! you are before your time, I see. You wouldn’t be so ready to turn out after you had had a year or two on board ship. Well, it looks as if we are going to have a grand day. There is a nice little breeze, and I fancy it will freshen a good bit later on. Now, then, tumble into the dinghy, I will take the sculls; the tide is running out strong, and you might run her into the yacht and damage the paint; that would be a nice beginning.” As soon as they were on board, the mate said: “Now, off with those shoes, youngster. You can go barefoot if you like, or you can put on those slippers you bought; we have got the deck fairly white, and we must not spoil it. You should make that a rule: everyone who comes on board takes off his boots at once.” The Greek made the dinghy fast, and then took off his shoes and stockings. Horace put on the slippers, and the mate a pair of light shoes he had brought on board with him. “Now, then, off with the sail-covers; fold them up and put them down under the seat of the cockpit. Knot up the tyers loosely together, and put them there also. Never begin to hoist your sails till you have got the covers and tyers snugly packed away. Now, Marco, get number two jib out of the sail-locker. I don’t think we shall want number one to-day. Now, hook on the halliards. No; don’t hoist yet, run it out first by the outhaul to the end of the bowsprit. We won’t hoist it till we have got the mainmast and mizzen up. Now, Marco, you take the peak halliards, and I will take the main. Now, then, up she goes; ease off the sheet a bit. Horace, we must top the boom a bit; that is high enough. Marco, make fast; now up with the mizzen; that is right. Now, Horace, before you do anything else always look round, see that everything is right, the halliards properly coiled up and turned over so as to run freely, in case you want to lower or reef sail, the sheets ready to slacken out, the foresail and jib sheets brought aft on their proper sides. There is nothing in our way now; but when there are
craft in the way, you want to have everything in perfect order, and ready to draw the moment the anchor is off the ground. Otherwise you might run foul of something before you got fairly off, and nothing can look more lubberly than that. Now you take the helm, and Marco and I will get up the anchor. The wind is nearly dead down the river; don’t touch the tiller till I tell you.” Horace stood by the helm till the mate said: “The chain is nearly up and down; now put the tiller gently to starboard.” As he spoke he ran up the jib, and as the boat’s head payed off, fastened the sheet to windward. “Now, Marco, round with the windlass; that is right, the anchor is clear now; up with it.” As he spoke he ran up the foresail. “Slack off the main sheets, lad, handsomely; that is right, let them go free; slack off the mizzen sheets.” The wind had caught the jib now, and, aided by the tide, brought the boat’s head sharply round. The jib and foresheets were hauled to leeward, and in less than a minute from the time the anchor had left the ground the boat was running down the river with her sheets well off before the wind. “Helm a-port a little, Horace, so as to give us plenty of room in passing that brig at anchor. That is enough. Steady! Now keep as you are. Marco, I will help you get the anchor on board, and then we will get up the topsail and set it.” In ten minutes the anchor was stowed, topsail set, and the ropes coiled down. Then a small triangular blue flag with the word “Surf” was run up to the masthead. “Properly speaking, Horace, flags are not shown till eight o’clock in the morning; but we will make an exception this time. Gently with the tiller, lad; you are not steering a fishing-boat now; a touch is sufficient
for this craft. Keep your eye on the flag, and see that it flies out straight ahead. That is the easiest thing to steer by when you are dead before the wind. There is more care required for that than for steering close-hauled, for a moment’s carelessness might bring the sail across with a jerk that would pretty well take the mast out of her. It is easy enough now in smooth water; but with a following sea it needs a careful helmsman to keep a craft from yawing about.” Marco had disappeared down the forecastle hatch as soon as he had finished coiling down the topsail halliard, and a wreath of smoke now came up through the stove-pipe. “That is good,” the mate said. “We shall have breakfast before long.” They ran three miles straight out, so as to get well clear of the land; then the sheets were hauled in, and the Surf’s head pointed east, and lying down to her gunwale she sped along parallel with the shore. “We are going along a good seven knots through the water,” the mate said. “She has got just as much sail as she wants, though she would stand a good deal more wind, if there were any occasion to press her; but as a rule, Horace, always err on the right side; there is never any good in carrying too much sail. You can always make more sail if the wind drops, while if it rises it is not always easy to get it in. Give me the helm. Now go down to Marco and tell him to come up a few minutes before breakfast is ready. We will get the topsail off her before we sit down, and eat our breakfast comfortably. There is no fun in having your plate in your lap.” By half-past seven the topsail was stowed and breakfast on the table. Marco took the helm, while the mate and Horace went down to breakfast. Horace thought that it was the most delightful meal he had ever taken; and the mate said: “That Greek of yours is a first-rate cook, Horace. An admiral could not want to sit down to a better breakfast than this. There is not much here to remind me of a midshipman’s mess. You would have had very different food from this, youngster, if you had had your wish and gone to sea. That father of yours must be a trump; I drink his health in
coffee. If he ever gets a bigger craft, and wants a captain, I am his man if he will send your Greek on board as cook. Does he care for the sea himself?” “I think he used to like it. I have heard him talk about sailing among the Greek islands; but as long as I have known him he has never been away from home except for short runs up to London. He is always in his library.” “Fancy a man who could afford to keep a big craft and sail about as he likes wasting his life over musty old books. It is a rum taste, youngster. I think I would rather row in a galley.” “There are no such things as galleys now, are there?” “Oh, yes, there are in Italy; they have them still rowed by convicts, and I fancy the Spanish gun-boats are rowed by prisoners too. It is worse than a dog’s life, but for all that I would rather do it than be shut up all my life in a library. You seem to talk Greek well, youngster.” “Yes; Marco has always been with me since I was a child, and we have another Greek servant, his brother; and father generally talks Greek to me. His mother was a Greek lady, and that is what made him so fond of it at first. They say he is the best Greek scholar in England.” “I suppose it differs a lot from the Greek you learn at school?” “Yes, a lot. Still, of course, my knowing it helps me tremendously with my old Greek. I get on first-rate at that, but I am very bad at everything else.” “Well, now we will go up and give Marco a spell,” the mate said. Marco was relieved and went below. Horace took the helm; the mate lit a pipe and seated himself on the weather bulwark. “We shall be at Seaport before eleven if we go on like this,” he said. “Oh, do let us take a run out to sea, Mr. Martyn; it is no use our going in until four or five o’clock.”
“Just as you like, lad; I am in no hurry, and it is really a glorious day for a sail. Put up the helm, I will see to the sheets.” As they got farther from the protection of the land the sea got up a bit, but the Surf went over it lightly, and except that an occasional splash of spray flew over her bow, her decks were perfectly dry. “Have you heard of a ship yet, Mr. Martyn?” “Yes, I heard only yesterday of a berth as first-mate in a craft at Plymouth. The first-mate got hurt coming down channel, and a friend of my father’s, learning there was a vacancy, spoke to the owners. She belongs there, and I am to join the day after to-morrow. She is bound up the Mediterranean. I shall be very glad to be off; I have had a dull time of it for the last four months except for this little job.” “I am afraid you won’t get any vehicle to take you back to-night,” Horace said. “No, I didn’t expect that; the coach in the morning will do very well. I have nothing to do but just to pack my kit, and shall go on by coach next morning. I was thinking of sleeping on board here, if you have no objection.” “I am sure my father will be very glad to see you up at the house,” Horace said eagerly. “Thank you, lad, but I shall be much more comfortable on board. Marco said he would get dinner at two, and there is sure to be plenty for me to make a cold supper of, and as there is rum in the locker I shall be as happy as a king. I can smoke my pipe as I like. If I were to go up with you I should be uncomfortable, for I have nothing but my sea-going togs. I should put your father out of his way, and he would put me out of mine. So I think, on all accounts, I had much better remain in good quarters now I have got them. How far is it to the place where I catch the coach?” “About four miles. We will send the carriage to take you there.”
“Thank you, I would much rather walk. I have nothing to carry but myself, and a four miles’ walk across the hills will be just the thing for me.” At four o’clock the Surf entered the little harbour of Seaport; Horace was delighted with the surprise of the fishermen at the arrival of the pretty craft. “You are sure you won’t change your mind and come up with me to the house?” “Quite certain, thank you, lad. Marco has put out everything I can possibly require. He offered to come down to get breakfast for me, but I prefer to manage that for myself, then I can have it at any time I fancy. I will lock up the cabin before I land. He will be there to take the key.” “I shall come down with him, of course, Mr. Martyn. I can’t tell you how much I am obliged to you for what you have done for me, and I hope that some day we may have another sail together.” “If I am at home any time when you may happen to put in at Exmouth I shall be glad to take a cruise with you, Horace.” As the lad and Marco went up the hill to the house, Horace, to his surprise, met his father coming down with Zaimes. “Well, Horace, so you have brought your yacht home. Zaimes routed me out from my work to come and look at her, and she really looks a very pretty little vessel.” “She is not little at all, father.” “Perhaps not in comparison, Horace; but did you and Marco bring her back by yourselves?” “No, father; William Martyn, the officer who has seen to her fitting up, and who recommended her, you know, said he would come with us. So, of course, he has been in command, and Marco and I have been
the crew. He has been teaching me lots of things, just the same, he says, as if I had been a newly joined midshipman.” “But where is he now, Horace?” “He is on board. He is going home by the coach to-morrow. I said that I was sure you would be glad if he would come up to the house; but he said he should feel more comfortable on board. Were you coming down to look at her, father?” “Yes, Horace, I was. It is quite a wonderful event my being outside the grounds, isn’t it?” “It is indeed, father. I am so glad you are coming down. I am sure you will like her, and then, perhaps, you will come sailing sometimes; I do think, father, that you would enjoy such a sail as we had to-day, it was splendid.” “Well, we will see about it, Horace. Now I have once come out I may do so again; I am not sure that a good blow might not clear my brain sometimes.” There was quite an excitement in the village when Mr. Beveridge was seen coming down. Occasionally during his wife’s lifetime he had come down with her to look into questions of repairs or erection of new cottages in lieu of old ones, but since that time he had never entered the village. Personally his tenants did not suffer from the cessation of his visits, for his steward had the strictest injunctions to deal in all respects liberally with them, to execute all necessary repairs, to accede to any reasonable request; while in case of illness or misfortune, such as the loss of a boat or nets, the rent was always remitted. That Mr. Beveridge was to a certain extent mad to shut himself up as he did the villagers firmly believed, but they admitted that no better landlord was to be found in all that part of the country. Mrs. Beveridge had been greatly liked, and the people were pleased at Horace being down so much among them; but it was rather a sore subject that their landlord himself held so entirely aloof from them. Men touched their hats, the women curtsied as he came down the
street, looking almost with pity at the man who, in their opinion, so terribly wasted his life and cut himself off from the enjoyments of his position. Mr. Beveridge returned their salutes kindly. He was scarce conscious of the time that had passed since he was last in the village; the years had gone by altogether unmarked save by the growth of Horace, and by the completion of so many works. “I suppose you know most of their names, Horace?” “All of them, I think, father.” “That is right, boy. A landlord ought to know all his tenants. I wish I could find time to go about among them a little more, but I think they have everything they want as far as I can do for them; still, I ought to come. In your mother’s time I did come sometimes. I must try to do it in future. Zaimes, you must see that I do this once a fortnight. I authorize you to bring me my hat and coat after lunch and say to me firmly, ‘This is your afternoon for going out.’” “Very well, sir,” the Greek said. “I will tell you; and I hope you will not say, as you always do to me when I beg you to go out: ‘I must put it off for another day, Zaimes, I have some work that must be done.’” “I will try not to, Zaimes, I will indeed. I think this is a duty. You remind me of that, will you?” By this time they had reached the little port, where a number of the fishermen were still lounging discussing the Surf, which was lying the picture of neatness and good order among the fishing-boats, with every rope in its place, the sails in their snow-white covers, and presenting the strongest contrast to the craft around her. “She is really a very pretty little yacht,” Mr. Beveridge said with more animation than Horace ever remembered to have heard him speak with. “She does great credit to your choice, Marco, and I should think she is a good sea-boat. Why, Zaimes, this almost seems to take one back to the old time. She is about the size of the felucca we used to
cruise about in; it is a long time back, nearly eighteen years, and yet it seems but yesterday.” “There is no reason why you should not sail again, master; even I long to have my foot on the planks. One never loses one’s love of the sea.” “I am getting to be an old man now, Zaimes.” “No one would say so but yourself, master; you are but forty-three. Sometimes, after being shut up for days, you look old—who would not when the sun never shines on them—but now you look young, much younger than you are.” A stranger indeed would have had difficulty in guessing Mr. Beveridge’s age. His forehead was broad, his skin delicate and almost colourless, his light-brown hair was already of a silvery shade, his face clean shaven, his hands white and thin. His eyes were generally soft and dreamy, but at the present moment they were bright and alert. His figure was scarcely that of a student, for the frame was large, and there was at present none of the stoop habitual to those who spend their lives over books; and now that he was roused, he carried himself exceptionally upright, and a close observer might have taken him for a vigorous man who had but lately recovered from an attack of severe illness. “We shall see, Zaimes, we shall see,” he said; “let us go on board. You had better hail her, Horace.” “Surf ahoy!” Horace shouted, imitating as well as he could William Martyn’s usual hail. A minute later the mate’s head appeared above the companion. “My father is coming on board, Mr. Martyn. Will you please bring the dinghy ashore.” The mate hauled up the dinghy, got into it, and in a few strokes was alongside the quay. Mr. Beveridge descended the steps first. “I am glad to meet you, Mr. Martyn, and to thank you for the kindness you have shown my son in finding this craft for him and seeing to its being fitted out.”
“It has been an amusement, sir,” the mate said. “I was knocking about Exmouth with nothing to do, and it was pleasant to be at work on something.” “Get in, Horace,” Mr. Beveridge said, “the dinghy won’t carry us all. You can bring it back again for the others.” The party stayed for half an hour on board. Mr. Beveridge was warm in his approval of the arrangements. “This is a snug cabin indeed,” he said. “I had no idea that such a small craft could have had such good accommodation. One could wish for nothing better except for a little more head-room, but after all that is of no great consequence, one does not want to walk about below. It is a place to eat and to sleep in, or, if it is wet, to read in. I really wonder I never thought of having a sailing-boat before. I shall certainly take a sail with you sometimes, Horace.” “I am very glad of that, father, it would be very jolly having you out. I don’t see much of you, you know, and I do think it would do you good.” William Martyn was not allowed to carry out his intention of staying on board, nor did he resist very earnestly Mr. Beveridge’s pressing invitation. His host differed widely from his preconceived notions of him, and he saw that he need not be afraid of ceremony. “You can smoke your pipe, you know, in the library after dinner, Mr. Martyn. I have no objection whatever to smoke; indeed, I used to smoke myself when I was in Greece as a young man—everyone did so there, and I got to like it, though I gave it up afterwards. Why did I give it up, Zaimes?” “I think you gave it up, master, because you always let your cigar out after smoking two or three whiffs, and never thought of it again for the rest of the day.” “Perhaps that was it; at any rate your smoking will in no way incommode me, so I will take no denial.”
Accordingly the cabins were locked up, and William Martyn went up with the others to the house and there spent a very pleasant evening. He had in the course of his service sailed for some time in Greek waters, and there was consequently much to talk about which interested both himself and his host. “I love Greece,” Mr. Beveridge said. “Had it not been that she lies dead under the tyranny of the Turks I doubt if I should not have settled there altogether.” “I think you would have got tired of it, sir,” the mate said. “There is nothing to be said against the country or the islands, except that there are precious few good harbours among them; but I can’t say I took to the people.” “They have their faults,” Mr. Beveridge admitted, “but I think they are the faults of their position more than of their natural character. Slaves are seldom trustworthy, and I own that they are not as a rule to be relied upon. Having no honourable career open to them, the upper classes think of nothing but money; they are selfish, greedy, and corrupt; but I believe in the bulk of the people.” As William Martyn had no belief whatever in any section of the Greeks he held his tongue. “Greece will rise one of these days,” Mr. Beveridge went on, “and when she does she will astonish Europe. The old spirit still lives among the descendants of Leonidas and Miltiades.” “I should be sorry to be one of the Turks who fell into their hands,” William Martyn said gravely as he thought of the many instances in his own experiences of the murders of sailors on leave ashore. “It is probable that there will be sad scenes of bloodshed,” Mr. Beveridge agreed; “that is only to be expected when you have a race of men of a naturally impetuous and passionate character enslaved by a people alien in race and in religion. Yes, I fear it will be so at the commencement, but that will be all altered when they become
disciplined soldiers. Do you not think so?” he asked, as the sailor remained silent. “I have great doubts whether they will ever submit to discipline,” he said bluntly. “Their idea of fighting for centuries has been simply to shoot down an enemy from behind the shelter of rocks. I would as lief undertake to discipline an army of Malays, who, in a good many respects, especially in the handiness with which they use their knives, are a good deal like the Greeks.” “There is one broad distinction,” Mr. Beveridge said: “the Malays have no past, the Greeks have never lost the remembrance of their ancient glory. They have a high standard to act up to; they reverence the names of the great men of old as if they had died but yesterday. With them it would be a resurrection, accomplished, no doubt, after vast pains and many troubles, the more so since the Greeks are a composite people among whom the descendants of the veritable Greek of old are in a great minority. The majority are of Albanian and Suliot blood, races which even the Romans found untamable. When the struggle begins I fear that this section of the race will display the savagery of their nature; but the fighting over, the intellectual portion will, I doubt not, regain their proper ascendency, and Greece will become the Greece of old.” William Martyn was wise enough not to pursue the subject. He had a deep scar from the shoulder to the elbow of his right arm, and another on the left shoulder, both reminiscences of an attack that had been made upon him by half a dozen ruffians one night in the streets of Athens, and in his private opinion the entire extirpation of the Greek race would be no loss to the world in general. “I am very sorry you have to leave to-morrow morning,” Mr. Beveridge said presently. “I should have been very glad if you could have stayed with us for a few days. It is some years since I had a visitor here, and I can assure you that I am surprised at the pleasure it gives me. However, I hope that whenever you happen to be at Exmouth you will run over and see us, and if at any time I can be of the slightest service to you I shall be really pleased.”
The next morning William Martyn, still refusing the offer of a conveyance, walked across the hills to meet the coach, and as soon as he had started Horace went down to the yacht. Marco had gone down into the village early, had seen Tom Burdett, and in his master’s name arranged for him to take charge of the Surf, and to engage a lad to sail with him. When Horace reached the wharf Tom was already on board with his nephew, Dick, a lad of seventeen or eighteen, who at once brought the dinghy ashore at Horace’s hail. “Well, Dick, so you are going with us?” “Ay, Master Horace, I am shipped as crew. She be a beauty. That cabin is a wonderful lot better than the fo’castle of a fishing-lugger. She is something like a craft to go a sailing in.” “Good morning, Tom Burdett,” Horace said as the boat came alongside the yacht; “or I ought to say Captain Burdett.” “No, no,” the sailor laughed; “I have been too long aboard big craft to go a captaining. I don’t so much mind being called a skipper, cos a master of any sort of craft may be called skipper; but I ain’t going to be called captain. Now, Dick, run that flag up to the mast-head. That is yachting fashion, you know, Master Horace, to run the burgee up when the owner comes on board. We ain’t got a burgee, seeing as we don’t belong to a yacht-club; but the flag with the name does service for it at present.” “But I am not the owner, Tom, that is nonsense. My father got it to please me, and very good of him it was; but it is nonsense to call the boat mine.” “Them’s the orders I got from your Greek chap down below, Mr. Horace. Says he, ‘Master says as how Mr. Horace is to be regarded as owner of this ’ere craft whenever he is aboard;’ so there you are, you see. There ain’t nothing to be said against that.” “Well, it is very jolly, isn’t it, Tom?”
“It suits me first-rate, sir. I feel for all the world as if we had just captured a little prize, and they had put a young midshipmite in command and sent me along with him just to keep him straight; that is how I feel about it.” “What sort of weather do you think we are going to have to-day, Tom?” “I think the wind is going to shift, sir, and perhaps there will be more of it. It has gone round four points to the east since I turned out before sunrise.” “And where do you think we had better go to-day, Tom?” “Well, as the wind is now it would be first-rate for a run to Dartmouth.” “Yes, but we should have a dead-beat back, Tom; we should never get back before dark.” “No sir, but that Greek chap tells me as your father said as how there were no occasion to be back to-night, if so be as you liked to make a cruise of it.” “Did he say that? That is capital. Then let us go to Dartmouth; to- morrow we can start as early as we like so as to get back here.” “I don’t reckon we shall have to beat back. According to my notion the wind will be somewhere round to the south by to-morrow morning; that will suit us nicely. Now then, sir, we will see about getting sail on her.” As soon as they began to throw the sail-covers off, Marco came on deck and lent a hand, and in the course of three minutes the sails were up, the mooring slipped, and the Surf was gliding past the end of the jetty. “That was done in pretty good style, sir,” Tom Burdett said as he took up his station by the side of Horace, who was at the tiller. “I reckon when we have had a week’s practice together we shall get up sail as
smartly as a man-of-war captain would want to see. I do like to see things done smart if it is only on a little craft like this, and with three of us we ought to get all her lower sail on her in no time. That Greek chap knows what he is about. Of course he has often been out with you in the fishing-boats, but there has never been any call for him to lend a hand there, and I was quite surprised just now when he turned to at it. I only reckoned on Dick and myself, and put the Greek down as steward and cook.” “He used to work in a fishing-boat when he was a boy, Tom.” “Ah, that accounts for it! They are smart sailors, some of them Greeks, in their own craft, though I never reckoned they were any good in a square-rigged ship; but in those feluccas of theirs they ain’t easy to be beaten in anything like fine weather. But they ain’t dependable, none of those Mediterranean chaps are, whether they are Greeks or Italians or Spaniards, when it comes on to blow really hard, and there is land under your lee, and no port to run to. When it comes to a squeak like that they lose their nerve and begin to pray to the saints, and wring their hands, and jabber like a lot of children. They don’t seem to have no sort of backbone about them. But in fine weather I allow they handle their craft as well as they could be handled. Mind your helm, sir; you must always keep your attention to that, no matter what is being said.” “Are you going to get up the topsail, Tom?” “Not at present, sir; with this wind there will be more sea on as we get further out, and I don’t know the craft yet; I want to see what her ways are afore we try her. She looks to me as if she would be stiff under canvas; but running as we are we can’t judge much about that, and you have always got to be careful with these light-draft craft. When we get to know her we shall be able to calculate what she will carry in all weathers; but there is no hurry about that. I have seen spars carried away afore now, from young commanders cracking on sail on craft they knew nothing about. This boat can run, there is no mistake about that. Look at that fishing-boat ahead of us; that is Jasper Hill’s Kitty; she went out ten minutes afore you came down. We
are overhauling her hand over hand, and she is reckoned one of the fastest craft in Seaport. But then, this craft is bound to run fast with her fine lines and shallow draft; we must wait to see how she will do when there is lots of wind.” In a couple of hours Horace was glad to hand over the tiller to the skipper as the sea had got up a good deal, and the Surf yawed so much before the following waves that it needed more skill than he possessed to keep her straight. “Fetch the compass up, Dick,” the skipper said; “we are dropping the land fast. Now get the mizzen off her, she will steer easier without it, and it isn’t doing her much good. Do you begin to feel queer at all, Mr. Horace?” “Not a bit,” the boy laughed. “Why, you don’t suppose, after rolling about in those fishing-boats when they are hanging to their nets, that one would feel this easy motion.” “No; you would think not, but it don’t always follow. I have seen a man, who had been accustomed to knock about all his life in small craft, as sick as a dog on board a frigate, and I have seen the first lieutenant of a man-of-war knocked right over while lying off a bar on boat service. One gets accustomed to one sort of motion, and when you get another quite different it seems to take your innards all aback.” The run to Dartmouth was quickly made, and to Horace’s delight they passed several large ships on their way. “Yes, she is going well,” Tom Burdett said when he expressed his satisfaction; “but if the wind was to get up a bit more it would be just the other way. We have got quite as much as we want, while they could stand a good bit more. A small craft will generally hold her own in a light wind, because why, she carries more sail in proportion to her tonnage. When the big ship has got as much as she can do with, the little one has to reef down and half her sails are taken off her. Another thing is, the waves knock the way out of a small craft, while the weight of a big one takes her through them without feeling it. Still I
don’t say the boat ain’t doing well, for she is first-rate, and we shall make a very quick passage to port.” Running up the pretty river, they rounded to, head to wind, dropped the anchor a short distance from a ship of war, and lowered and stowed their sails smartly. Then Horace went below to dinner. It had been ready for some little time, but he had not liked leaving the deck, for rolling, as she sometimes did, it would have been impossible to eat comfortably. As soon as he dined, the others took their meal in the fo’castle, Marco having insisted on waiting on him while at his dinner. When they had finished, Marco and Dick rowed Horace ashore. The lad took the boat back to the yacht, while the other two strolled about the town for a couple of hours, and then went off again. The next day the Surf fully satisfied her skipper as to her weatherly qualities. The wind was, as he had predicted, nearly south-east, and there was a good deal of sea on. Before getting up anchor, the topmast was lowered, two reefs put in the main-sail and one in the mizzen, and a small jib substituted for that carried on the previous day. Showers of spray fell on the deck as they put out from the mouth of the river; but once fairly away she took the waves easily, and though sometimes a few buckets of water tumbled over her bows and swashed along the lee channels, nothing like a green sea came on board. Tom Burdett was delighted with her. “She is a beauty and no mistake,” he said enthusiastically. “There is many a big ship will be making bad weather of it to-day; she goes over it like a duck. After this, Mr. Horace, I sha’n’t mind what weather I am out in her. I would not have believed a craft her size would have behaved so well in a tumble like this. You see this is more trying for her than a big sea would be. She would take it easier if the waves were longer, and she had more time to take them one after the other. That is why you hear of boats living in a sea that has beaten the life out of a ship. A long craft does not feel a short choppy sea that a small one would be putting her head into every wave: but in a long sea the little one has the advantage. What do you think of her, sir?” “She seems to me to heel over a long way, Tom.”
“Yes, she is well over; but you see, even in the puffs she doesn’t go any further. Every vessel has got what you may call her bearing. It mayn’t take much to get her over to that; but when she is there it takes a wonderful lot to bring her any further. You see there is a lot of sail we could take off her yet, if the wind were to freshen. We could get in another reef in the main-sail, and stow her mizzen and foresail altogether. She would stand pretty nigh a hurricane with that canvas.” It was four o’clock in the afternoon before the Surf entered the harbour. Horace was drenched with spray, and felt almost worn out after the struggle with the wind and waves; when he landed his knees were strangely weak, but he felt an immense satisfaction with the trip, and believed implicitly Tom Burdett’s assertion that the yacht could stand any weather.
T CHAPTER III THE WRECK HOSE were glorious holidays for Horace Beveridge. He was seldom at home; sometimes two of his cousins, the Hendons, accompanied him in his trips, and they were away for three or four days at a time. Three times Mr. Beveridge with Zaimes went out for a day’s sail, and Horace was pleased to see that his father really enjoyed it, talking but little, but sitting among some cushions Zaimes arranged for him astern, and basking in the bright sun and fresh air. That he did enjoy it was evident from the fact that, instead of having the yacht laid up at the end of the holidays, Mr. Beveridge decided to keep her afloat, and retained Tom Burdett’s services permanently. “Do you think, Tom, we shall get any sailing in the winter holidays?” “We are sure to, sir, if your father has not laid her up by that time. There are plenty of days on this coast when the sailing is as pleasant in winter as it is in summer. The harbour is a safe one though it is so small, and I don’t see any reason why she shouldn’t be kept afloat. Of course we shall have to put a stove in the cabin to make it snug; but with that, a good thick pea-jacket, warm gloves, and high boots, you would be as right as a nail.” And so at Christmas and through the next summer holidays Horace enjoyed almost constant sailing. He was now thoroughly at home in the boat, could steer without the supervision of the skipper, and was as handy with the ropes as Dick himself. “This is the best job I ever fell into, Mr. Horace,” Tom Burdett said at the end of the second summer. “Your father pays liberal; and as for grub, when that Greek is on board a post-captain could not want better. It is wonderful how that chap does cook, and he seems downright to like it. Then you see I have got a first-rate crew. Dick is
as good as a man now; I will say for the Greek, he is a good sailor as well as a good cook; and then you see you have got a deal bigger and stronger than you were a year ago, and are just as handy either at the tiller or the sheets as a man would be, so we are regular strong- handed, and that makes a wonderful difference in the comfort on a craft.” That summer they sailed up to Portsmouth, and cruised for a week inside the Isle of Wight, and as Horace had one of his school-fellows spending the holidays with him, he enjoyed himself to the fullest of his capacity. During the holidays Horace did not see much of his father, who, quite content that the boy was enjoying himself, and gaining health and strength, went on in his own way, and only once went out with him during his stay at home, although, as Marco told him, he generally went out once a week at other times. The first morning after his return, at the following Christmas, Horace did not as usual get up as soon as it was light. The rattle of the window and the howl of the wind outside sufficed to tell him that there would be no sailing that day. Being in no hurry to move, he sat over breakfast longer than usual, talking to Zaimes of what had happened at home and in the village since he last went away. His father was absent, having gone up to town a week before, and Horace had, on his arrival, found a letter from him, saying that he was sorry not to be there for his return, but that he found he could not get through the work on which he was engaged for another two days; he should, however, be down at any rate by Christmas-eve. After breakfast Horace went out and looked over the sea. The wind was almost dead on shore, blowing in such violent gusts that he could scarce keep his feet. The sky was a dull lead colour, the low clouds hurrying past overhead. The sea was covered with white breakers, and the roar of the surf, as it broke on the shore, could be heard even above the noise of the wind. Putting on his pea-jacket and high boots, he went down to the port. As it had been specially constructed as a shelter against south-westerly winds, with the western pier overlapping the other, the sea did not make a direct sweep into it; but the craft inside were all rolling heavily in the swell.
“How are you, Tom? It is a wild day, isn’t it?” “Don’t want to see a worse, sir. Glad to see you back again, Mr. Horace. Quite well, I hope?” “First-rate, Tom. It is a nuisance this gale the first day of coming home. I have been looking forward to a sail. I am afraid there is no chance of one to-day?” “Well, sir, I should say they would take us and send us all to the loonatic asylum at Exeter if they saw us getting ready to go out. Just look at the sea coming over the west pier. It has carried away a bit of that stone wall at the end.” “Yes. I didn’t really think of going out, Tom, though I suppose if we had been caught out in it we should have managed somehow.” “We should have done our best, in course,” the sailor said, “and I have that belief in the boat that I think she might weather it; but I would not take six months’ pay to be out a quarter of an hour.” “What would you do, Tom, if you were caught in a gale like this?” “If there weren’t land under our lee I should lay to, sir, under the storm-jib and a try-sail. Maybe I would unship the main-sail with the boom and gaff, get the top-mast on deck and lash that to them; then make a bridle with a strong rope, launch it overboard, lower all sail, and ride to that; that would keep us nearer head on to the sea than we could lie under any sail. That is what they call a floating anchor. I never heard of a ship being hove-to that way; but I was out on boat service in the Indian Ocean when we were caught in a heavy blow, and the lieutenant who was in charge made us lash the mast and sails and oars together and heave them overboard, and we rode to them right through the gale. We had to bale a bit occasionally, but there was never any danger, and I don’t think we should have lived through it any other way. I made a note of it at the time, and if ever I am caught in the same way again that is what I shall do, and what would be good for a boat would be good for a craft like the Surf.”
This conversation was carried on with some difficulty, although they were standing under the lee of the wall of a cottage. “She rolls about heavily, Tom.” “She does that, sir. It is lucky we have got our moorings in the middle of the harbour, and none of the fishing-boats are near enough to interfere with her. You see most of them have got their sails and nets rolled up as fenders, but in spite of that they have been ripping and tearing each other shocking. There will be jobs for the carpenter for some time to come. Five or six of them have torn away their bulwarks already.” After waiting down by the port for an hour Horace returned to the house. When luncheon was over he was just about to start again for the port, when Marco said to him: “Dick has just been in, sir. There is going to be a wreck. There are a lot of fishermen gathered on the cliff half a mile away to the right. They say there is a ship that will come ashore somewhere along there.” “Come on, then, Marco. Did you hear whether they thought that anything could be done?” “I did not hear anything about it. I don’t think they know where she will go ashore yet.” In a few minutes they reached the group of fishermen standing on the cliff. It was a headland beyond which the land fell away, forming a bay some three miles across. A large barque was to be seen some two miles off shore. She was wallowing heavily in the seas, and each wave seemed to smother her in spray. Tom Burdett was among the group, and Horace went up to him at once. “What’s to prevent her from beating off, Tom? She ought to be able to work out without difficulty.” “So she would at ordinary times,” the skipper said; “but she is evidently a heavy sailer and deep laden. She could do it now if they
could put more sail on her, but I expect her canvas is all old. You see her topsails are all in ribbons. Each of them seas heaves her bodily to leeward. She is a doomed ship, sir, there ain’t no sort of doubt about that; the question is, Where is she coming ashore?” “Will it make much difference, Tom?” “Well, it might make a difference if her master knew the coast. The best thing he could do would be to get her round and run straight in for this point. The water is deeper here than it is in the bay, and she would get nearer ashore before she struck, and we might save a few of them if they lashed themselves to spars and her coops and such like. Deep as she is she would strike half a mile out if she went straight up the bay. The tide is nearly dead low, and in that case not a man will get ashore through that line of breakers. Then, again, she might strike near Ram’s Head over there, which is like enough if she holds on as she is doing at present. The Head runs a long way out under water, and it is shallower half a mile out than it is nearer the point. There is a clump of rocks there.” “I don’t remember anything about them, Tom, and we have sailed along there a score of times.” “No, sir, we don’t take no account of them in small craft, and there is a fathom and a half of water over them even in spring-tides. Springs are on now, and there ain’t much above nine foot just now; and that craft draws two fathom and a half or thereabouts, over twelve foot anyhow. But it don’t make much difference; wherever she strikes she will go to pieces in this sea in a few minutes.” “Surely there is something to be done, Tom?” “Some of us are just going down to get ropes and go along the shore, Mr. Horace; but Lor’ bless you, one just does it for the sake of doing something. One knows well enough that it ain’t likely we shall get a chance of saving a soul.” “But couldn’t some of the boats go out, Tom? There would be plenty of water for them where she strikes.”
“The fishermen have been talking about it, sir; but they are all of one opinion; the sea is altogether too heavy for them.” “But the Surf could go, couldn’t she, Tom? You have always said she could stand any sea.” “Any reasonable sort of sea, Mr. Horace, but this is a downright onreasonable sort of sea for a craft of her size, and it is a deal worse near shore where the water begins to shallow than it would be out in the channel.” But though Tom Burdett spoke strongly, Horace noticed that his tone was not so decided as when he said that the fishing-boats could not go out. “Look here, Tom,” he said, “I suppose there must be thirty hands on board that ship. We can’t see them drowned without making a try to save them. We have got the best boat here on the coast. We have been out in some bad weather in her, and she has always behaved splendidly. I vote we try. She can fetch out between the piers all right from where she is moored; and if, when we get fairly out, we find it is altogether too much for her, we could put back again.” Tom made no answer. He was standing looking at the ship. He had been already turning it over in his mind whether it would not be possible for the Surf to put out. He had himself an immense faith in her sea-going qualities, and believed that she might be able to stand even this sea. “But you wouldn’t be thinking of going in her, Mr. Horace?” he said doubtfully at last. “Of course I should,” the lad said indignantly. “You don’t suppose that I would let the Surf go out if I were afraid to go in her myself.” “Your father would never agree to that if he were at home, sir.” “Yes, he would,” Horace said. “I am sure my father would say that if the Surf went out I ought to go in her, and that it would be cowardly to let other people do what one is afraid to do one’s self. Besides, I
can swim better than either you or Dick, and should have more chance of getting ashore if she went down; but I don’t think she would go down. I am nearly sixteen now; and as my father isn’t here I shall have my own way. If you say that you think there is no chance of the Surf getting out to her there is an end of it; but if you say that you think she could live through it, we will go.” HORACE SUGGESTS A RESCUE
“I think she might do it, Mr. Horace; I have been a saying so to the others. They all say that it would be just madness, but then they don’t know the craft as I do.” “Well, look here, Tom, I will put it this way: if the storm had been yesterday, and my father and I had both been away, wouldn’t you have taken her out?” “Well, sir, I should; I can’t say the contrary. I have always said that the boat could go anywhere, and I believe she could, and I ain’t going to back down now from my opinion; but I say as it ain’t right for you to go.” “That is my business,” Horace said. “Marco, I am going out in the Surf to try to save some of the men on board that ship. Are you disposed to come too?” “I will go if you go,” the Greek said slowly; “but I don’t know what your father would say.” “He would say, if there was a chance of saving life it ought to be tried, Marco. Of course there is some danger in it, but Tom thinks she can do it, and so do I. We can’t stand here and see thirty men drowned without making an effort to save them. I have quite made up my mind to go.” “Very well, sir, then I will go.” Horace went back to Tom Burdett, who was talking with Dick apart from the rest. “We will take a couple of extra hands if we can get them,” the skipper said. “We shall want to be strong-handed.” He went to the group of fishermen and said: “We are going out in the Surf to see if we can lend a hand to bring some of those poor fellows ashore. Young Mr. Beveridge is coming, but we want a couple more hands. Who will go with us?” There was silence for a minute, and then a young fisherman said:
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    Assessment of Vulnerability to NaturalHazards A European Perspective Edited by Jörn Birkmann United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Stefan Kienberger Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria David E. Alexander Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO
  • 6.
    Elsevier 525 B Street,Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Permissions may be sought directly from Elsevier’s Science & Technology Rights Department in Oxford, UK: phone (+44) (0) 1865 843830; fax (+44) (0) 1865 853333; email: [email protected]. Alternatively you can submit your request online by visiting the Elsevier web site at http://elsevier.com/locate/permissions, and selecting Obtaining permission to use Elsevier material. Notice No responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification of diagnoses and drug dosages should be made. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards: a European perspective/[edited by] Jörn Birkmann, Stefan Kienberger, David E. Alexander.   pages cm ISBN 978-0-12-410528-7 (hardback) 1. Natural disasters–Europe. 2. Hazard mitigation–Europe 3. Environmental risk assessment–Europe. 4. Emergency management–Planning–Europe. 5. Human security. I. Birkmann, Jörn. II. Kienberger, Stefan. III. Alexander, David (David E.) GB5008.E87A77 2014 363.34’2064–dc23              2014006590 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-0-12-410528-7 Printed and bound in China 14 15 16 17 18 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 For information on all Elsevier publications visit our web site at store.elsevier.com
  • 7.
    vii David E. AlexanderInstitute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom Marjory Angignard Institute of Spatial Planning, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Alex H. Barbat Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain Jörn Birkmann United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Omar D. Cardona Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Colombia Martha Liliana Carreño Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain Dr Salete Carvalho Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal Diana Contreras Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria Yaella Depietri United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany; Institut de Ciècia i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA),Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain Dr Nicolas Desramaut BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Ground Instabilities and Erosion Risk Unit, Orléans, France Unni Eidswig NGI, Oslo, Norway Dr Manuel Garcin BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Coastal Risks and Climate Change Unit, Orléans, France Thomas Glade Department of Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Stefan Greiving Institute of Spatial Planning, Technical University of Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany Christian Iasio Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, EURAC European Academy for Research, Bolzano, Italy Margareth Keiler Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Stefan Kienberger Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria Contributors
  • 8.
    Contributors viii Maria Papathoma-Köhle Departmentof Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Mabel C. Marulanda Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE) Barcelona, Spain Roberto Miniati Department of Information Engineering, University of Florence, Florence, Italy Lydia Pedoth Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, European Academy of Bolzano (EURAC), Bozen/Bolzano, Italy Mark Pelling Department of Geography, King’s College London, The Strand, London, United Kingdom Fabrice Renaud United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Dr Jeremy Rohmer BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Risks of underground Storages and Exploitations, Orléans, France Stefan Schneiderbauer Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, European Academy of Bolzano (EURAC), Bozen/Bolzano, Italy Reinhold Totschnig eb&p Umweltbüro GmbH, Klagenfurt, Austria Dr Fantina Tedim Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal Thorsten Ulbrich Institute of Meteorology, Department of Earth Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin Dr Charlotte Vinchon BRGM, Risks and Prevention Division, Coastal Risks and Climate Change Unit, Orléans, France Torsten Welle United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany Zehra Zaidi Department of Geography, King’s College London, The Strand, London, United Kingdom Peter Zeil Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria
  • 9.
    ix Introduction Vulnerability: a keydeterminant of risk and its importance for risk management and sustainability Jörn Birkmann, Stefan Kienberger, David E. Alexander Bush fires in February 2014 in Norway, extreme heat stress in 2013 in London, and major floods in June 2013 in Central Europe illustrate that communities and states in Europe have to prepare seriously for extreme events and natu- ral hazards. While some phenomena are unexpected, such as the bush fires in Norway during winter, other hazards are more or less well known, such as floods along large river systems. However, similar hazards and extreme events often have quite different impacts and consequences. For example the major earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March 2011, with a magnitude of 9.0Mw (moment magnitude scale) caused about 18,500 fatalities, while the earthquake disaster in Haiti in 2010, which had a magnitude of 7.0Mw—hence about 100 times less powerful than the Tohoku earthquake—resulted in more than 220,000 deaths. Also in Europe, various population groups were exposed to heat stress in 2003, with the loss of between 22,000 and 70,000 deaths (Robine et al., 2008). Mortality and morbidity were particularly high among the elderly. These con- siderations lead to several important questions: l What factors determine risk? l Why did the earthquake in Haiti, with a significantly lower magnitude cause many more fatalities compared to the event in Japan? l Why did so many elderly people died during the European heat wave in 2003? l Which factors have significantly increased the risk of harm and loss of life or property due to extreme events and natural hazards? l Can we measure differences in vulnerability and capacity to respond before such extreme events strike societies? l Can these assessments help to identify relevant intervention measures designed to mitigate risk? This book aims to provide some answers to the questions listed above. It focuses on the development and application of vulnerability assessments to
  • 10.
    Introduction x natural hazards inEurope. Vulnerability assessment today is a key endeavor within different scientific communities, such as disaster risk reduction, emer- gency management, and climate change adaptation. In this regard, there is an emerging consensus that extreme events and natural hazards do not necessarily cause extreme impacts and major harm, but rather that the vulnerability of a society, community, or system (infrastructure, social-ecological system, etc.) exposed to the hazard determines whether it translates into disaster. The concept of vulnerability has been used in the English language for 400years, although its origins in Latin (vulnerare, to damage or wound) go back to time immemorial. Vulnerability implies an inherent or innate suscep- tibility to harm and is the antithesis of robustness, resilience, and ability to resist. In terms of human process, it is often seen as the opposite of ability to cope or to bring to bear sufficient capacity to overcome and neutralize harm when it threatens a person or entity. Many more precise definitions of vulnerability have been developed in the various contexts in which it has been used. As a result, in the study of extreme events and disasters it has acquired a variety of meanings and overtones whose proliferation and contrasts have led to a degree of confusion over definitions. For example, does it include fragil- ity, susceptibility, and exposure, or are these separate concepts? Nevertheless, in disaster studies, vulnerability has gradually established itself as a central concept, and many would regard it as the key to understanding the impact of extreme events. To produce disaster, hazards act upon the vulnerable fabric of society, and the vulnerable environment in which society has its being. An extreme but popular view is to treat hazard as merely the trigger of disaster and to argue that society is so complex that the ramifications of its vulnerabil- ity, and associated feedback loops, largely determine the form and magnitude of disaster. Another way of looking at this is that disaster cannot be under- stood, and hence neither can disaster risk, without an intimate knowledge of vulnerability in the various facets and categories in which it is manifest in society and environment. Under conditions of global environmental change, it is expected that Europe will face increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme natural events. At the same time important changes in societal conditions and pre- paredness can be observed in countries and regions in Europe. For example, the demographic change in Germany will most likely lead to a larger number of elderly people, which will make many regions and their populations in Germany more vulnerable to heat stress, particularly as elderly people have only limited physical means to cope with heat stress. In addition, socioeco- nomic changes and modifications in employment situations or social security networks, such as in Greece, might also influence the vulnerability of people who are exposed to natural hazards such as forest fires. Finally, increasing urbanization of hazardous areas, high levels of dependency on critical infra- structure (electricity, gas, water, banking, etc.), and the increasing vulner- ability of particular social groups point to the urgent need to improve, not
  • 11.
    Introduction xi only ourknowledge about the physical phenomena and hazard characteris- tics, but also vulnerability and its underlying factors in Europe and among its citizens. GOALS OF THE PROJECT This book is based on the outcome of a research project funded by the Euro- pean Commission’s Framework Project FP7. The project was named MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe) and it was designed to: l Enhance the base of knowledge on frameworks and methods for the assess- ment of vulnerability to natural hazards in Europe. l Use indices and indicators to help improve societal and environmental resil- ience by placing emphasis on clear, capable measurement and by accounting for uncertainties. l Identify gaps in existing methodologies for accomplishing these tasks. l Produce a conceptual framework that is independent of scale and hazard type. l Analyze physical, technical, environmental, economic, social, cultural, and institutional vulnerability measured for specific hazards and at different geo- graphical scales. l Study the vulnerability of people and specific infrastructures (e.g., hospitals) to floods, temperature extremes, droughts, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and storms impacts. While the development of a common framework was an important stimulus to discussion and the harmonization of different definitions of vulnerability, the empirical case studies showed that, next to a common metaframework, the characteristics of each case study are specific to its context. The information that they contributed to the study might require the modification of the overall framework. In this respect, the empirical research on the ground allowed to operationalize the different components and factors of vulnerability outlined in the framework for the specific case studies. The project involved substantial participation by stakeholders, who were comprehensively consulted. This provided a basis to explore how these new methods and the information gathered within the vulnerability assessments can be linked to existing evaluation and planning tools. For example, the framework and case studies on flood vulnerability have a strong relevance for policy mak- ers who aim to create a comprehensive and integrated approach to decision making for risk identification and vulnerability reduction. The European Union (EU) Flood Directive onAssessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/ EC), and the subsequent EU Flood Directive Implementation Strategy, lack the ability to address vulnerability in a comprehensive and integrative manner. In
  • 12.
    Introduction xii this regard, theMOVE framework and the practical results of the vulnerability assessments of floods demonstrate that flood risk mapping and management will have to consider different dimensions and factors of vulnerability if the aim is to manage and reduce flood risk effectively in Europe. Furthermore, case studies in Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria, the United Kingdom, and Portugal show that vulnerability assessment should not be lim- ited to economic loss estimation, as it also requires the consideration of tangible and intangible factors that determine institutional and cultural vulnerability. Hence, the core part of the book is designed to provide essential insights into case studies on how the proposed MOVE framework can be operationalized. The context and the settings of the case studies are extremely diverse, and so are the methods applied, results achieved, and conclusions gained. Urban case studies (such as those conducted in Barcelona and London) demonstrate the complexity of urban environments, but they also highlight the need to achieve a detailed understanding of underlying causal and spatial patterns. Focusing on a range of hazard types (as did the Cologne and South Tyrol case studies) high- lights the difficulties of creating a common framework in an environment of diverse multiple hazards, and it emphasizes the challenge of providing the tools to identify possible “generic” vulnerability factors. Innovative methods range from the modeling of vulnerability regions in a spatially explicit manner that is independent of administrative units (as shown in the Salzach River case study) to the assessment of institutional vulnerabilities (as evinced in the Cologne case study). Moreover, specific assessments of the impact of hazards on health-care systems (as in the Florence case study), coastal erosion, and forest-fire-related assessments (as in case studies from Portugal) point the way toward more holis- tic assessments (such as the Cologne and Salzach case studies) and demonstrate the variety of ways in which vulnerability can be measured under a common framework. Overall, this volume can provide important guidance and methodology on how to translate the complex concept of vulnerability into the practical assess- ments that are essential to the identification of risks and to holistic risk manage- ment approaches. Understanding vulnerability as a crosscutting concept that links disaster risk management, climate change adaptation, and development processes. It can contribute much to the development of integrated policies. In this regard, it is important to note that the nexus between development, risk reduction, and climate change is increasingly receiving attention in European and international policy making. In the ongoing climate change negotiations— particularly in terms of the subprogramme on loss and damage—specific tools and monitoring systems will be developed to assess progress and reduce the risk of loss and damage in the context of both the extreme events and creeping changes that are linked with climate change. The definition of the new Sustain- able Development Goals and the further development of the Hyogo Framework for Action in the post-2015 process require assessment methods to be enhanced and indicators to be developed in order to measure progress toward the chosen
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    Introduction xiii goals andtargets. In this broader context of scientific discourse and policy, this book will provide important input to an improved understanding of essential factors that might determine whether a natural hazard or event can lead to a disaster or crisis. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the practitioners who supported the research and dissemination work conducted within the MOVE project. In addition, a sincere word of thanks go to the exter- nal reviewers and experts of the MOVE project and the different chapters of the volume, ­ particularly to Christian Kuhlicke and John Twigg, Melanie Gall, Hugh Deeming, and Denis Chang Seng for their valuable comments and critique. Furthermore, we are very grateful for the ­ funding received for the project by the European Commission DG Research and the continuous advice received from Mr. Denis Peter. Last, but not least we would also like to thank the Editorial team of Elsevier, especially Louisa Hutchins and Sharmila Vadivelan who ­ provided us with effective and continuous support in terms of the management of the publica- tion process. REFERENCE Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S.L.K., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., Herrmann, F.R., 2008. Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C. R. Biol. 331 (2), 171–8.
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    1 Assessment of Vulnerabilityto Natural Hazards. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-410528-7.00001-1 Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards and Climate Change in Europe1 The MOVE Framework Jörn Birkmann*, Omar D. Cardona†, Martha Liliana Carreño§§, Alex H. Barbat¶¶, Mark Pelling‡, Stefan Schneiderbauer§, Stefan Kienberger¶, Margareth Keiler**, David E. Alexander††, Peter Zeil¶ and Torsten Welle* *United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany, †Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Colombia, ‡Department of Geography, King’s College London, The Strand, London, §Institute for Applied Remote Sensing, EURAC, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy, ¶Department of Geoinformatics – Z_GIS, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria, **Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland, ††Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom, ¶¶Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Barcelona, Spain, §§Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 1. This chapter is based on a paper published in Natural Hazards dealing with the MOVE framework; see in detail Birkmann et al., 2013. Chapter 1 1.1 Introduction   2 1.2 Risk, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Natural Hazards   3 1.2.1 Definitions and Perspectives   3 1.2.1.1 Social Construction of Risk   3 1.2.1.2 Risk and Disasters   4 1.2.1.3 Adaptation and Coping   4 1.2.2  Frameworks on How to Systematize Vulnerability in Different Communities   5 1.2.2.1 Different Frameworks to Systematize and Define Vulnerability 6 Chapter Outline
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    2 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards 1.1 INTRODUCTION Newest global assessment reports (GAR, 2011; Welle et al., 2012; IPCC, 2013; IPCC, 2014) underscore that risk reduction and resilience building remains a key challenge for developing and developed countries alike particularly due to the increasing exposure of people and assets in high risk zones and the intensification of extreme events in the context of climate change (see e.g., IPCC, 2013). It is increasingly recognized that natural hazard associated risk and threats to human security cannot be reduced by focusing solely on the hazards. Societies will have to live with changing environmental conditions and therefore need to build resilience by reducing vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment of natu- ral hazards and climate change has emerged in the past decades as an important research field (see e.g., Maskrey, 1984; Chambers, 1989; Pelling, 1997; Cardona, 2001; Birkmann, 2006a,b; Adger, 2006; IPCC, 2007; Bohle, 2008; Bohle and Glade, 2008; Oxfam America, 2009; Birkmann, 2013) bringing together scientists from different disciplines (Fuchs, 2009). The following chapter outlines a frame- work for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM)2 and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; www.move-fp7.eu) spon- sored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program. 2. The term Disaster Risk Management (DRM) also encompasses the concept of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Thus these terms are used almost synonymously. 1.3  Multidimensional and Holistic Perspective: The MOVE Framework   7 1.3.1  Goals of the Framework   7 1.3.2  Key Factors of Vulnerability within the MOVE Framework   8 1.3.2.1 Multidimensional Vulnerability 9 1.3.2.2  Risk and Risk Governance 10 1.3.2.3 Adaptation  10 1.3.3 Theoretical Grounding of the Concept: System Thinking and Nonlinearity   11 1.4 The Application: Criteria and Indicators   11 1.5 Challenges and Outlook   13 References   14
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    3 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment 1.2 RISK, VULNERABILITY, AND ADAPTATION TO NATURAL HAZARDS 1.2.1 Definitions and Perspectives The concept of vulnerability is today a core concept that links important research communities, particularly DRM, CCA, and development research. However, defi- nitions of vulnerability are contested and research on vulnerability is underpinned by multiple disciplinary theories based upon natural or social science epistemolo- gies. This results in a range of paradigms for approaching vulnerability and is sup- ported by qualitative and quantitative assessment methodologies (Pelling, 2001; Birkmann, 2006a,b; O’Brien et al., 2007; Birkmann, 2013; Fuchs, 2009). The natural science research communities often focus on the quantification of differentfactorsofvulnerability(e.g.,Kienbergeretal.,2009;O’Brienetal.,2007). The aim of these approaches—particularly regarding physical vulnerability—is to define and quantify damage ranges illustrated through vulnerability curves in order to help determine acceptable levels of potential losses (Papathoma-Köhle et al., 2011). Social science approaches often encompass a broad focus and exam- ine, in particular, the likelihood that an individual household or a community will suffer harm or experience losses related to environmental hazards, as well as the context conditions that influence social vulnerability (DFID, 1999; Wisner et al., 2004). In this context, Phillips and Fordham (2009) emphasize that social vulner- ability to natural hazards is driven by social inequality and is deeply embedded in social structures that are often resistant to change (Phillips and Fordham, 2009). Besides a clear differentiation of risk and vulnerability, the MOVE framework aims at integrating the concept of adaptation in vulnerability assessments to natu- ral hazards. In this way, the MOVE framework seeks to enhance the DRR per- spective by integrating new understanding of coupling, adaptation, and resilience. In this regard, the framework might also serve as a tool to link particularly the DRR and CCA community as well as the resilience research community. Before discussing the different components of the framework and the key factors of vulnerability in more depth, it is essential to outline the basic under- standing of disaster risk and vulnerability as well as adaptation applied within the context of the framework. 1.2.1.1 Social Construction of Risk The concept of vulnerability underscores the social construction of risk and is supported empirically by a range of studies applying vulnerability to help understand risk to hazards, including those with a focus on climate change (Aysan, 1993; Blaikie et al., 1996; Wisner et al., 2004). Vulnerability refers to the propensity of exposed elements such as physical or capital assets, as well as human beings and their livelihoods, to experience harm and suffer damage and loss when impacted by single or compound hazard events (UNDRO, 1980; Tim- merman, 1981; Maskrey, 1984; Cardona, 1986, 1990; Liverman, 1990; Cannon, 1994, 2006; Blaikie et al., 1996; UNISDR, 2004, 2009; Birkmann, 2006b,c; Cutter et al., 2003; Cutter and Finch, 2008; Cutter et al., 2008). While there
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    4 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards is broad agreement on the aspects of the social construction of risk (Cham- bers, 1989; Cannon, 1994; Lavell, 1999; Wisner, 2006; Carreño et al., 2007a,b; Cardona, 2004), it is at the level of measurement where the challenge remains. The difficulty lies in assessing the various dimensions of vulnerability and its mul- tifaceted and dynamic nature (see e.g., Birkmann, 2006b,c; Birkmann, 2013). 1.2.1.2 Risk and Disasters While risk and vulnerability can be seen as continuums, a disaster is but a moment or materialization of these underlying conditions. Dynamic changes of vulnerability and hazard phenomena also mean that risk is nonstatic; it changes over time and these changes have to be considered when applying specific assessments, as well as when developing corrective (current risk) or prospective (future risk) interventions. Overall, disasters are the product of a complex relationship between the physical environment, both the natural and built environment, and society; its behavior, function, organization, and devel- opment, including human perception (Quarantelli, 1998). The term disaster often refers to a social condition whereby the normal functioning of a social system has been severely interrupted by the levels of loss, damage, and impact suffered (Cardona, 1990; Alexander, 1993, 2000; Birkmann, 2006b). How- ever, disaster can also function as a catalyst for change (see e.g., Birkmann et al., 2010). Pelling and Dill (2010) demonstrate how disasters and crises can also catalyze reorganization and learning processes in communities or societ- ies, often accelerating underlying policy and social trajectories. The concept of resilience has developed in different schools of thought, such as ecology (e.g., Holling, 1973), psychology (e.g., Bonanno et al., 2006; Bonanno, 2008), social-ecological systems research (e.g., Berkes et al., 2003; Folke, 2006), and critical infrastructures (e.g., Boin and McConnell, 2007). In general, resilience research is concerned with the ability of a system or a person to deal with disturbances and the effect of stressors. In addition, resilience research, par- ticularly with regard to social-ecological systems or infrastructures, focuses on capacities of systems to reorganize themselves in the face of adverse events through processes described as revolt and remember and respective innovation processes. Within the framework, we refer to resilience mainly in terms of the lack of resilience, hence the limited capacities to cope or to recover in the face of adverse consequences. At the same time we acknowledge that “improving resilience” is part of adaptation within our framework. Hence the resilience concept is attributed to two core components of the MOVE framework: coping and adaptation. 1.2.1.3 Adaptation and Coping Adaptation in early reports of the IPCC has not received much attention, since the overall perception was that too much emphasis on adaptation would contra- dict strict goals for the reduction of green house gas emissions. However, today
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    5 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment adaptation is a core concept with the climate change context and goes far beyond a rather biological and reactive understanding of adjustment. Hence, adaptation presents itself as a continuous property, with levels of adaptive capacity changing over time as the status of vulnerability components identified above change and the demands of a shifting risk environment alter the appropriateness of particular asset bundles for risk reduction (Pelling, 2001). Such changes can be a result of disaster events but also everyday processes of development. It should be noted that adaptation is distinct from coping. Coping we see as an aspect of resilience that signifies the “here and now” capacity and includes a set of actions avail- able to those at risk. Coping in this way is part of the formula that determines vulnerability at any one moment in time. However, coping mainly deals with the conservation and protection of the current system and institutional settings (see Birkmann, 2010). Adaptation, by contrast, denotes a longer-term and constantly unfolding process of learning, experimentation, and change that feeds into vul- nerability. Adaptation can be felt acting to shape all aspects of vulnerability and is observable through the systems and outcomes of learning—planned and spon- taneous, pre and postdisaster (Pelling, 2010). This understanding of adaptation is commensurate with the emerging consensus from climate change (see Kelly and Adger, 2000;Yohe and Tol, 2002; Pelling, 2010) where coping is seen to describe actions taken within existing constraints (including vision and knowledge), and adaptation signifies change in the framing institutions. 1.2.2 Frameworks on How to Systematize Vulnerability in Different Communities In recent years different frameworks have been developed to systematize risk, different facets of vulnerability and resilience (see overview in Birkmann, 2013). Thomalla et al. (2006) and Mitchell and van Aalst (2009) examine commonalities and differences between the CCA and DRM communities and identify key areas of convergence. They conclude that the two communities perceive the nature and timescale of the threat differently: if impacts due to climate change are surrounded by uncertainty, considerable knowledge and cer- tainty exists about the event characteristics and exposures related to extreme environmental conditions based on historical experience. However, it has to be acknowledged that climate change challenges the historical knowledge of natu- ral hazard events, particularly due to the modification of frequency and intensity of such events (Keiler et al., 2010). CCA increasingly places emphasis on improving the capacity of govern- ments and communities to address existing vulnerabilities to current climate variability and climatic extremes (Thomalla et al., 2006). Echoing the long- standing concerns of the disaster management community for a more socially informed approach to risk management (e.g., Hewitt, 1983; Burton et al., 1993) and from the climate change community, O’Brien et al. (2004) call for an inte- gration of “underlying causes” of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in climate
  • 19.
    6 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards change impact assessments rather than only focusing on adaptive capacity and technical measures. Furthermore, Birkmann and Teichman (2010) argue that the DRM and the CCA communities differ particularly in terms of the spatial, tem- poral, and functional scales applied within their research. Additionally, Romieu et al. (2010) examined different frameworks and assessment approaches used within CCA and DRM. They concluded that differences are particularly linked to process (stress versus shock), scale (temporal, functional, and spatial), assess- ment approach (statistical versus prospective), and levels of uncertainty. 1.2.2.1 Different Frameworks to Systematize and Define Vulnerability The DRM and CCA communities share common roots in social and political science, however, four distinct approaches to understanding vulnerability and risk can be identified. The four approaches are not contradictory but rather approach risk from a specific viewpoint and with particular ends in mind—from the unearthing of systems linkages from the global to the local to the search for quantifiable risk measures. This section provides a brief overview of each approach to help illustrate the key differences and similarities behind these ways of conceptualizing and measuring risk and its components. Each approach has been considered in the production of the integrated framework proposed in this paper. The four approaches can be distinguished between those that are rooted in (1) political economy; (2) social-ecology; (3) vulnerability and disaster risk assessment from a holistic view; and (4) climate change systems science. The political economy approach can be illustrated by the pressure and release (PAR) model published in Blaikie et al. (1994) and Wisner et al. (2004). This links vulnerability to unsafe conditions and discrete risk in a continuum of vulnerability that connects local risk to wider national and global shifts in the political economy of resources and political power. Associated with this approach and operating across development studies more generally is the Sus- tainable Livelihood Framework (see DFID, 1999).Applied in risk contexts most commonly to help understand household impacts and coping when faced with food insecurity, the framework successfully unpacks the range of assets that are at risk and can be used to generate security from disaster. Importantly from a political economy perspective, the framework directs attention to the ways in which the organizational, institutional, and political context helps to shape local capacity—but also recognizes that these structures are reproduced through the actions of individuals and households. The social-ecology perspective empha- sizes the need to focus on coupled human-environmental systems when dealing with the assessment of risk. The best known visualization of this approach has been developed and published by Turner et al. (2003). Compared to political economy, the perspective of social ecology stresses the transformative quali- ties of society with regard to nature—and also the effects of changes in the environment on social and economic systems. It argues that the exposure and
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    7 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment susceptibility of a system can only be adequately understood if these coupling processes and interactions are addressed. Comprehensive perspectives from vulnerability and disaster risk assess- ment have tried to develop an integrated explanation of risk. These approaches particularly differentiate exposure, susceptibility, and societal response capaci- ties or the lack of resilience (see Cardona, 1999a,b, 2001, 2010; IDEA, 2005; Birkmann, 2006a; Carreño, 2006; Carreño et al., 2007a,b; Birkmann and Fernando, 2008; Barbat et al., 2011; Carreño et al., 2012). A core element of these approaches is a feedback-loop system which underlines that vulnerability is dynamic and that vulnerability assessment cannot be limited to the identifi- cation of deficiencies, but rather also take into account the potential feedback loops and intervention tools that exist or can be developed in order to reduce vulnerability. Moreover, the approaches of so called integrative and holistic frameworks also incorporate the perspective of sustainable development into the assessment of vulnerability (Birkmann, 2006b). The fourth school of thought emerged within the context of CCA (see e.g., Füssel and Klein, 2006). Most of these approaches focus closely on the defi- nition of vulnerability used by the IPCC (AR4). Vulnerability in this regard is understood as a function of exposure, sensitivity,3 and adaptive capacities (Füssel, 2007a,b; McCarthy et al., 2001; IPCC, 2007; O’Brien et al., 2008a,b). These frameworks, however, differ from the understanding of vulnerability in the DRM community in that they take into account the rate and magnitude of climate change. This introduces a critical distinction between the understanding of vulnerability within climate change and the other schools of thought dis- cussed above. The concept of vulnerability here includes external environmen- tal factors of shock or stress. Hence, in this view, the magnitude and frequency of potentially hazardous events is to be included in the calculation of vulner- ability to climate change and hence, the vulnerability concept shifts toward a risk definition. 1.3 MULTIDIMENSIONAL AND HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE: THE MOVE FRAMEWORK 1.3.1 Goals of the Framework A key goal when developing the MOVE framework was to provide an improved conceptualization of the multifaceted nature of vulnerability, accounting for key causal factors such as exposure, susceptibility, lack of resilience (lack of soci- etal response capacities), as well as for the different thematic dimensions of vulnerability: physical, social, ecological, economic, cultural, and institutional. 3. Interestingly, the term sensitivity means different things to different communities; however, the actual factors used to assess sensitivity of a system in CCA can be closely linked to factors that are used to characterize susceptibility or fragility in the DRM context.
  • 21.
    8 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards Additionally, the framework incorporates the concept of adaptation into DRM, and therewith explicitly differentiates coping from adaptation. The MOVE conceptual framework (see Figure 1.1) underlines that hazards are of natural or socio-natural origin while vulnerability in its multifaceted nature is mainly linked to societal conditions and processes. 1.3.2 Key Factors of Vulnerability within the MOVE Framework At its core, the MOVE framework differentiates key factors of vulnerability and shows the different thematic dimensions of vulnerability. The key factors of vulnerability are defined as follows: 1. Exposure describes the extent to which a unit of assessment falls within the geographical range of a hazard event. Exposure extends to fixed physical attributes of social systems (infrastructure) but also human systems (liveli- hoods, economies, cultures) that are spatially bound to specific resources and practices that may also be exposed. Exposure is then qualified in terms of spatial and temporal patterns. 2. Susceptibility (or fragility) describes the predisposition of elements at risk (social and ecological) to suffer harm. Although susceptibility and fragility imply subtle differences in various concepts, we mainly use them synonymously ,ĂnjĂƌĚ ŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶ sƵůŶĞƌĂďŝůŝƚLJ ŝŶƚĞƌǀĞŶƟŽŶ ^ƵƐĐĞƉƟďŝůŝƚLJ ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶ džƉŽƐƵƌĞ ƌĞĚƵĐƟŽŶ ZĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞ ŝŵƉƌŽǀĞŵĞŶƚ Z Z ZŝƐ ŝƐ ŝƐŬ Ŭ ŬŐŽ ŐŽ ŐŽǀĞ ǀĞ ǀĞƌŶ ƌŶ ƌŶĂŶ ĂŶ ĂŶĐĞ ĐĞ ĐĞ ZŝƐŬŐŽǀĞƌŶĂŶĐĞ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶ ͬ WůĂŶŶŝŶŐ ͬ KƌŐĂŶŝnjĂƟŽŶͬWůĂŶŶŝŶŐͬ /ŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ /ŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƟŽŶ ^ƵďŶĂƟŽŶĂů ў ŽĐĂůƐĐĂůĞ ŽĐĂůƐĐĂůĞ /ŶƚĞƌĂĐƟŽŶƐ ŽƵƉůŝŶŐ $GDSWDWLRQ džƉŽƐƵƌĞ dĞŵƉŽƌĂů ^ƉĂƟĂů sƵůŶĞƌĂďŝůŝƚLJ WŚLJƐŝĐĂů ĂĐŬŽĨ ƌĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞ ĂƉĂĐŝƚLJƚŽ ĂŶƟĐŝƉĂƚĞ ĂƉĂĐŝƚLJƚŽ ĐŽƉĞ ĂƉĂĐŝƚLJƚŽ ƌĞĐŽǀĞƌ ^ƵƐĐĞƉƟďŝůŝƚLJ ĂŶĚĨƌĂŐŝůŝƚLJ ŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚ ŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚ 6RFLHW 6RFLHW ,ĂnjĂƌĚƐ EĂƚƵƌĂůĞǀĞŶƚƐͬ^ŽĐŝŽͲŶĂƚƵƌĂůĞǀĞŶƚƐ ĐŽůŽŐŝĐĂů ^ŽĐŝĂů /ŶƐƟƚƵƟŽŶĂů ƵůƚƵƌĂů ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ FIGURE 1.1 The MOVE framework. Own figure, based particularly on concepts of Cardona, 1999a, 2001, p. 65; Turner et al., 2003; Bogardi and Birkmann, 2004; IDEA, 2005; Birkmann, 2006b; Carreño et al., 2007a; see also Birkmann et al., 2013.
  • 22.
    9 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment within the meta-framework in order to emphasize the core differences between exposure, susceptibility, and lack of resilience. In this context, susceptibility (or fragility) can be calculated and addressed often independent of exposure. 3. Lack of resilience or societal response capacity is determined by limitations in terms of access to and mobilization of the resources of a community or a social- ecological system in responding to an identified hazard. This includes preevent risk reduction, in-time coping, and postevent response measures. Compared to adaptation processes and adaptive capacities, these capacities focus mainly on the ability to maintain the system in light of a hazard event impacting the sys- tem or element exposed. In this sense, the capacity to anticipate, the capacity to cope, and the capacity to recover can include significant changes to existing practices around a referent hazard event/scenario but does not include learning based on the potential for future change in hazard and vulnerability contexts. However, the concept of resilience also includes learning and reorganization processes, and therefore is positioned as a subcomponent of the adaptation box. Compared to the key factor “lack of resilience”, which refers to existing capacities, the adaptation box also deals with the ability of a community or a system to learn from past disasters and to change existing practices for poten- tial future changes in hazards as well as vulnerability contexts. 4. Hazard is used to describe the potential occurrence of natural, socio-natural, or anthropogenic events that may have physical, social, economic, and envi- ronmental impact in a given area and over a period of time. Therefore, haz- ard is defined by the potentiality of geodynamics or hydro-meteorological processes to cause effects upon exposed elements. In addition, the concept of coupling emphasizes the framework’s assertion that any defined hazard is given form and meaning by interaction with social systems, and similarly, social systems are influenced by their actual and perceived hazard context. 1.3.2.1 Multidimensional Vulnerability In addition to key factors of vulnerability, core thematic dimensions of vulner- ability have to be addressed within a holistic assessment process. Key thematic components are explained as follows: l Social dimension: propensity for human well-being to be damaged by disrup- tion to individual (mental and physical health) and collective (health, edu- cation services, etc.) social systems and their characteristics (e.g., gender, marginalization of social groups). l Economic dimension: propensity for loss of economic value from damage to physical assets and/or disruption of productive capacity. l Physical dimension: potential for damage to physical assets including built-up areas, infrastructure, and open spaces. l Cultural dimension: potential for damage to intangible values including meanings placed on artifacts, customs, habitual practices, and natural or urban landscapes.
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    10 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards l Environmental dimension: potential for damage to all ecological and biophys- ical systems and their different functions. This includes particular ecosystem functions and environmental services (see e.g., Renaud, 2006) but excludes cultural values that might be attributed. l Institutional vulnerability: potential for damage to governance systems, orga- nizational form and function, as well as guiding formal/legal and informal/ customary rules—any of which may be forced to change following weak- nesses exposed by disaster and response. The majority of assets and systems exposed to hazard will exhibit more than one dimension of vulnerability. 1.3.2.2 Risk and Risk Governance In contrast to vulnerability, risk is defined as the probability of harmful con- sequences or losses resulting from interactions between hazard and vulnerable conditions. It is the potential for physical, social, economic, environmental, cultural, or institutional consequences or losses, in a given area and over a period of time (see UNISDR, 2004). In addition, risk governance is linked to decisions and actions performed by formal stakeholders such as govern- ments or different governmental institutions and informal stakeholders (individual households) that include tasks on risk reduction, prevention, miti- gation, and transfer, and also preparedness and disaster management (see e.g., Renn, 2008). 1.3.2.3 Adaptation Adaptation and adaptive capacities describe techniques, assets, and strategies applied or available to intervene in vulnerability; i.e., manage exposure, sus- ceptibility, and resilience at any one moment in time. Compared to the concept of coping, adaptation here is understood as a mechanism and response capac- ity that also aims to change existing institutional and organizational structures and hence does intend to modify the system; while coping is associated with capacities to maintain a system as it is in the face of adverse consequences. In this regard, resilience building and improvement is seen as a component of adaptation. Compared to capacities to cope or to recover (classified as the “lack of resilience”), resilience in the adaptation box refers to learning and reorgani- zation processes in the light of potential future changes and hazards, as well as potential changes in vulnerability. Consequently, the concept of resilience is dif- ferentiated into (1) a more reactive part that refers to the lack of resilience, while (2) the ability to learn and to reorganize in anticipation of future changes (pro- active actions) are linked to the notion of adaptation. While coping capacities and resilience are primarily linked to capacities that help to maintain the current status of the systems under stress, adaptation as a concept implies actions aimed at making more profound change in socio-ecological relations (see e.g., Pelling, 2010; Birkmann, 2010, 2013).
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    11 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment 1.3.3 Theoretical Grounding of the Concept: System Thinking and Nonlinearity In terms of the underlying theoretical concept, the framework is based on and refers to general systems theory, cybernetics and interlinked systems theory (see e.g., Vester, 2008). It underlines that vulnerability and risk are embedded in pro- cesses and therefore have a dynamic nature—they change over time. Although this has been stressed by different authors in the past (see e.g., Keiler et al., 2006; Bründl et al., 2010), many vulnerability and risk assessment approaches in the context of natural hazards and climate change still do not account for capacities to cope and to adapt and hence do not link their thinking to newer approaches in the context of disaster risk reduction and CCA. Compared with the linear understanding of feedback and response processes held by cybernetic theory and the idea that systems can be steered more or less easily, the MOVE framework is based on the understanding that risks also involve complexity and the emergence of different vulnerability as well as response patterns to risks observed. This thinking can build on a legacy of engagement with cybernet- ics in the geographical tradition of hazards studies (Cardona, 2001, 2010; Hil- horst, 2004; Pelling, 2010). Critics argued that while the cybernetic approach had made progress in providing a framework that recognized social context as a mediating pressure on the environment, it did not have the conceptual tools to analyze these relationships. Deeper social relations of production and power were not included. Current perspectives on adaptation, vulnerability, and risk to climate change developed from systems thinking within the socio-ecological systems school have made some advances in integrating power dynamics into models of risk (see e.g., Gunderson and Holling, 2002). The policy warning is that social sys- tems will change in time driven either by environmental crisis or preemptive risk management (Handmer and Dovers, 1996). It is possible to insert power into this analysis through the interaction of institutions or structures and agency in cycles of adaptation. The challenge here is to understand under which condi- tions institutions and decision makers are able to deal with interacting social and ecological crises (Galaz et al., 2011). 1.4 THE APPLICATION: CRITERIA AND INDICATORS The MOVE framework is first and foremost a thinking tool, however, it also served as an important guiding vision for the development of specific criteria and indicators that allow to assess vulnerability in different cities and regions in Europe and worldwide. Within the application of the framework and the devel- opment of concrete assessment tools, the constraints and limits of the frame- work become evident. However, interestingly, various case studies presented in this volume show that many case studies could apply the framework within the empirical research process or selected components of it.
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    12 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards The case studies dealing with seismic risk in Barcelone (Spain) and the flood vulnerability assessment in the Salzach River Basin as well as the floods in Cologne use various core factors of vulnerability outlined in the MOVE frame- work within their assessment. In this regard, important indicators for assess- ing (1) exposure, (2) susceptibility, and (3) response capacities in terms of the lack of resilience (lack of coping or recovery capacities) as well as adaptation processes are shown. Consequently, the framework can be operationalized for specific assessments. More specific vulnerability and risk assessments are con- ducted within the context of the healthcare system in Florence (Italy) and the heatwave vulnerability and risk management capacities in London (UK). Vul- nerability assessments to forest fires and coastal erosion is demonstrated within the case study of Portugal and a vulnerability assessment to mass movements in mountainous environments is show with the case study of South Tyrol. Overall, the examples show that most of the components of the MOVE framework can be applied as a basis for developing and differentiating indica- tors and criteria for vulnerability assessment within the broader context of risk management and risk governance. However, the interested reader will also find important differences in the operationalization and further concretization of dif- ferent vulnerability factors and concepts such as adaptation and coping. These differences could be seen as a cacophony of the concept and term again; how- ever, we view these differences and specific perspectives also as an important part of the contextualization of the general MOVE framework and the concept of vulnerability. That means compared to a standardized natural hazard assess- ment, for example, in terms of earthquake hazards using the Richter or Moment Magnitude scale, vulnerability about societal conditions and hence has to be translated and operationalized within a specific context. Consequently, some indicators and core factors of vulnerability might need to be interpreted differ- ently or have to include additional information and indicators in order to make sense for the specific spatial, cultural, or socio-economic context. The core mes- sage that the MOVE framework provides for DRM and CCA is that even if the exposure of people or infrastructures or ecosystems is similar, the vulnerability of different groups, infrastructures, and ecosystems is most likely to be differ- ent, since vulnerability is differential. For example, in the case of the assess- ment of social vulnerability in Barcelona, low-income groups and low-income urban areas were used as proxies to assess particularly vulnerable groups and areas. The lack of institutional resilience was assessed by using expert inter- views and a benchmark index for preparedness and the capacity of different agencies to deal with earthquake-related disasters (rescue teams, fire brigades, etc.) in Barcelona. Hence, the assessment of response capacities requires a more precise understanding of the hazard and specific vulnerabilities that should be considered when evaluating response and preparedness strategies and capaci- ties. Overall, the case studies provide a rich overview of different vulnerability facets and the approach to systematize important information according to the framework outlined before.
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    13 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment 1.5 CHALLENGES AND OUTLOOK Against the background of the diverse approaches and assessment methods used in DRM and CCA, the MOVE framework presented and the further applica- tion of it in case study cities or regions (see case study chapters) shows that a common meta-approach can be achieved linking different approaches and research communities. In this regard it is also important to note that the MOVE framework and its discussion also informed particularly the new framing of risk management within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC Special report on “Managing the Risk of Extreme Events to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” is based on this broader framing of vulnerability and the understanding that extreme events do not necessarily cause extreme impacts. Rather the new framework of the IPCC underscores that next to the physical phenomena (e.g., hazard or extreme weather event), exposure and vulnerability are key in determining whether such extreme events can cause extreme impacts (see IPCC, 2012). As a heuristic, the MOVE framework is a thinking tool to guide systemic assessment processes and the development of indicators, which for example could be described in specific guiding documents (Vinchon et al., 2011). How- ever, the framework does not provide a specific assessment method (qualitative or quantitative) or a predefined list of indicators. Rather, it outlines key factors and different dimensions of vulnerability that can serve as a basis for a system- atic operationalization of vulnerability (see the following chapters). The frame- work stresses the fact that many interactions that shape vulnerability are dynamic (change over time) and characterized by nonlinearity and place-specific factors. Thus, the application of the framework has to consider the place-specific charac- teristics that influence vulnerability and its components as well as the coupling processes between social and environmental systems. In addition, this framework considers different scales: not only recognizing the fact that certain characteris- tics are typical or only valid at a certain scales (e.g., community versus global assessment) but also reflecting the fact that specific scales (spatial and temporal scales) correspond with different needs of stakeholders and institutions operating at different times and spatial ranges. The specific translation of the framework into concrete measures also depends on the research object or subject (social group, physical buildings, socio-ecological systems) and the hazard context. An important benefit of the framework can be seen in the ability to straddle multiple approaches and epistemologies in natural and social sciences and DRM. Instead of focusing solely on the deficiencies of a community or incapacities of different social groups or social-ecological systems, the concept and its application shows that vulnerable groups or systems have also developed capacities that help them to survive or deal with changing environmental conditions. Lastly, the framework is easy to understand for different disciplines and therefore enables and promotes the communication process between different communities, particularly between the DRM and CCA community. In this con- text, the framework also has a strong relevance for policy makers that aim to
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    14 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards base their decisions on a comprehensive and integrative approach of vulnerabil- ity and risk identification. For example, the EU Flood Directive on Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC) and the subsequent EU Flood Directive Implementation Strategy lack to address vulnerability in a compre- hensive and integrative approach. In this regard, the framework could be used to inform agencies responsible for carrying out flood risk maps in the context of the directive, in terms of providing them with a broader overview of the various dimensions and key factors that should be considered within a holistic approach. However, challenges remain with regard to the implementation of the frame- work and its key components in highly diverse hazards and cultural context situations. In particular, the intangible factors that determine institutional or cul- tural vulnerability are difficult to capture and to assess. However, the selected examples shown in the table provide an illustration on how one can capture these rather intangible aspects within such assessments. Hence, it is proven that these facets of vulnerability can be translated into assessable criteria and indicators. REFERENCES Adger, W.N., 2006. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16 (3), 268–281. Alexander, D.E., 1993. Natural Disasters. UCL Press Limited, London. Alexander, D.E., 2000. Confronting Catastrophe. Terra Publishing, Harpenden. Aysan, Y., 1993. Vulnerability assessment. In: Merriman, P.A., Browitt, C.W.A. (Eds.), Natural Disasters: Protecting Vulnerable Communities(London). Barbat, A.H., Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Marulanda, M.C., 2011. Evaluación holística del riesgo sísmico en zonas urbanas. Revista Internacional de Métodos Numéricos para Cálculo y Diseño en Ingeniería 27, 3–27. Berkes, F., Colding, J., Folke, C., 2003. Introduction. In: Berkes, F., Colding, J., Folke, C. (Eds.), Navigating Social-Ecological Systems: Building Resilience for Complexity and Change. Cambridge University Press, Boston? London? Birkmann, J. (Ed.), 2013. Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards - Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. , Second ed.United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris. Birkmann, J. (Ed.), 2006a. Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards - Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris. Birkmann, J., 2006b. Measuring vulnerability to promote disaster-resilient societies: conceptual frameworks and definitions. In: Birkmann, J. (Ed.), Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Haz- ards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York, Paris, pp. 9–54. Birkmann, J., 2006c. Indicators and criteria for measuring vulnerability: theoretical bases and require- ments. In: Birkmann, J. (Ed.), Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards - Towards Disaster Resilient Societies. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, NewYork, Paris, pp. 55–77. Birkmann, J., 2010. Regulation and coupling of society and nature in the context of natural hazards – different theoretical approaches and conceptual frameworks and their applicability to analyse social-ecological crises phenomena. In: Brauch, H.G., Oswald Spring, U., Mesjasz, C., Grin, J., Kameri-Mbote, P., Chourou, B., Dunay, P., Birkmann, J. (Eds.), Coping with Global Envi- ronmental Change, Disasters and Security - Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace, vol. 5. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York.
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    15 Chapter | 1Theoretical and Conceptual Framework for the Assessment Birkmann, J., Buckle, P., Jaeger, J., Pelling, M., Setiadi, N., Garschagen, M., Fernando, N., Kropp, J., 2010. Extreme events and disasters: a window of opportunity for change? Analysis of changes, formal and informal responses after mega-disasters. Natural Hazards 55 (3), 637–655. Birkmann, J., Cardona, O.D., Carreno, L., Barbat, A., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Kelier, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., Welle, T., 2013. Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework. Natural Hazards 67 (2), 193–211. Birkmann, J., Fernando, N., 2008. Measuring revealed and emergent vulnerabilities of coastal com- munities to Tsunamis in Sri Lanka. Disasters 32 (1), 82–104. Birkmann, J., von Teichman, K., 2010. Integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adap- tation: key challenges—scales, knowledge, and norms. Sustainability Science 5 (2), 171–184. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., Wisner, B., 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People, Vulnerability, and Disasters. Routledge, London. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., Wisner, B., 1996. Vulnerabilidad, el Entorno Social de los Desas- tres. La RED-ITDG, Bogota, D.C. Bogardi, J., Birkmann, J., 2004. Vulnerability assessment: the first step towards sustainable risk reduction. In: Malzahn, D., Plapp, T. (Eds.), Disasters and Society – from Hazard Assessment to Risk Reduction. Logos, Berlin, pp. 75–82. Bohle, H.-G., 2008. Krisen, Katastrophen, Kollaps – Geographien von Verwundbarkeit in der Risikogesellschaft. In: Kulke, E., Popp, H. (Eds.), Umgang mit Risiken. Katastrophen – Desta- bilisierung – Sicherheit. Lausitzer Druck- und Verlagshaus GmbH, Bayreuth, pp. 69–82. Deutscher Geographentag 2007, Bautzen. Bohle, H.-G., Glade, T., 2008. Vulnerabilitätskonzepte in Sozial- und Naturwissenschaften. In: Fel- gentreff, C., Glade, T. (Eds.), Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Spektrum Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 99–119. Boin, A., McConnell, A., 2007. Preparing for critical infrastructure breakdowns: the limits of crisis management and the need for resilience. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 15 (1), 50–59. Bonanno, G.A., Galea, S., Bucciarelli, A., Vlahov, D., 2006. Psychological resilience after disaster: New York City in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attack. Psychological Science 17 (3), 181–186. Bonanno, G., 2008. Loss, trauma, and human resilience: have we underestimated the human capac- ity to thrive after extremely aversive events? American Psychologis 59 (1), 20–28. Bründl, M., Bartelt, P., Schweizer, J., Keiler, M., Glade, T., 2010. Snow avalanche risk analysis - review and future challenges. In: Alcantara-Ayla, I., Goudie, A. (Eds.), Geomorphological Hazards and Disaster. Cambridge University Press, Boston, pp. 49–61. Burton, I., Kates, R.W., White, G.F., 1993. The Environment as Hazard. Guildford Press, London. Cannon, T., 1994. Vulnerability analysis and the explanation of ‘Natural’ disasters. In: Varley, A. (Ed.), Disasters, Development and Environment. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, pp. 13–29. Cannon, T., 2006. Vulnerability analysis, livelihoods and disasters. In: Ammann, W.J., Dannen- mann, S., Vulliet, L. (Eds.), Risk 21: Coping with Risks Due to Natural Hazards in the 21st Century. Taylor and Francis Group plc, London, pp. 41–49. Cardona, O.D., 1986. Estudios de Vulnerabilidad y Evaluación del Riesgo Sísmico: Planificación Física y Urbana en Áreas Propensas. Boletín Técnico de la Asociación Colombiana de Ingeni- ería Sismica 33 (2), 32–65. Cardona, O.D., 1990. Terminología de Uso Común en Manejo de Riesgos. AGID Reporte No. 13, EAFIT. In: Fernández, M.A. (Ed.), Medellín, actualizado y reimpreso en ciudades en riesgo. La RED, USAID. Cardona, O.D., 1999a. Diagnóstico local de riesgos naturales en Santa Fe de Bogotá para la planifi- cación y medidas de mitigación. Panamericana-Secretaría de Salud, Bogotá, D.C.
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    16 Assessment ofVulnerability to Natural Hazards Cardona, O.D., 1999b. Environmental management and disaster prevention: two related topics. In: Fernandez, M.A. (Ed.), Cities at Risk: Environmental Degradation, Urban Risks and Disasters in Latin America. A/H Editorial, La RED, US AID, Quito, pp. 77–102. Cardona, O.D., 2001. Estimación Holística del Riesgo Sísmico utilizando Sistemas Dinámicos Complejos.(Doctoral dissertation) Technical University of Catalonia, Department of Terrain Engineering. Available from: http://www.desenredando.org/public/varios/2001/ehrisusd/index. html. Cardona, O.D., 2004. The need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective risk management. In: Bankoff, G., Frerks, G., Hilhorst, D. (Eds.), Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People. Publishers, London, pp. 37–51. Cardona, O.D., 2011. Disaster risk and vulnerability: notions and measurement of human and envi- ronmental insecurity. In: Brauch, H.G., Oswald Spring, U., Mesjasz, C., Grin, J., Kameri-Mbote, P., Chourou, B., Dunay, P., Birkmann, J. (Eds.), Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security - Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks. Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace Vol. 5. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, pp. 107-121. Carreño, M.L., 2006. Técnicas innovadoras para la evaluación del riesgo sísmico y su gestión en centros urbanos: Acciones ex ante y ex post(Doctoral dissertation) Technical University of Cat- alonia, Department of Terrain Engineering. Available from: http://www.tdx.cat/TDX-1102106- 110455. Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Barbat, A.H., 2007a. Urban seismic risk evaluation: a holistic approach. Natural Hazards 40 (1), 137–172. Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Barbat, A.H., 2007b. Disaster risk management performance index. Natural Hazards 41 (1), 1–20. Carreño, M.L., Cardona, O.D., Barbat, A.H., 2012. New methodology for urban seismic risk assess- ment from a holistic perspective. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 10 (2), 547–565. Chambers, Robert, 1989. Vulnerability, coping and policy. Institute of Development Studies Bul- letin 20 (2), 1–7. Cutter, S., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., Webb, J., 2008. A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18 (4), 598–606. Cutter, S., Finch, C., 2008. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. PNAS 105 (7), 2301–2306. Cutter, S.L., Boruff, B.J., Shirley, W.L., 2003. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly 84 (2003), 242–261. DFID (Department for International Development), 1999. Sustainable Livelihood Guidance Sheets. (London). Folke, C., 2006. Resilience: the emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16, 253–267. Fuchs, S., 2009. Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria – paradigms of vulnerability revisited. Natural Hazards and the Earth System Sciences 9, 337–352. Füssel, H.M., 2007a. Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches and key lessons. Sustainability Science 2 (2), 265–275. Füssel, H.M., 2007b. Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change 17 (2), 155–167. Füssel, H.M., Klein, R., 2006. Climate change vulnerability assessment: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Climatic Change 75 (3), 301–329.
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    Another Random Documenton Scribd Without Any Related Topics
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    They were downat the wharf at a quarter to six. As the clock struck the hour William Martyn came down. “Good-morning, youngster! you are before your time, I see. You wouldn’t be so ready to turn out after you had had a year or two on board ship. Well, it looks as if we are going to have a grand day. There is a nice little breeze, and I fancy it will freshen a good bit later on. Now, then, tumble into the dinghy, I will take the sculls; the tide is running out strong, and you might run her into the yacht and damage the paint; that would be a nice beginning.” As soon as they were on board, the mate said: “Now, off with those shoes, youngster. You can go barefoot if you like, or you can put on those slippers you bought; we have got the deck fairly white, and we must not spoil it. You should make that a rule: everyone who comes on board takes off his boots at once.” The Greek made the dinghy fast, and then took off his shoes and stockings. Horace put on the slippers, and the mate a pair of light shoes he had brought on board with him. “Now, then, off with the sail-covers; fold them up and put them down under the seat of the cockpit. Knot up the tyers loosely together, and put them there also. Never begin to hoist your sails till you have got the covers and tyers snugly packed away. Now, Marco, get number two jib out of the sail-locker. I don’t think we shall want number one to-day. Now, hook on the halliards. No; don’t hoist yet, run it out first by the outhaul to the end of the bowsprit. We won’t hoist it till we have got the mainmast and mizzen up. Now, Marco, you take the peak halliards, and I will take the main. Now, then, up she goes; ease off the sheet a bit. Horace, we must top the boom a bit; that is high enough. Marco, make fast; now up with the mizzen; that is right. Now, Horace, before you do anything else always look round, see that everything is right, the halliards properly coiled up and turned over so as to run freely, in case you want to lower or reef sail, the sheets ready to slacken out, the foresail and jib sheets brought aft on their proper sides. There is nothing in our way now; but when there are
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    craft in theway, you want to have everything in perfect order, and ready to draw the moment the anchor is off the ground. Otherwise you might run foul of something before you got fairly off, and nothing can look more lubberly than that. Now you take the helm, and Marco and I will get up the anchor. The wind is nearly dead down the river; don’t touch the tiller till I tell you.” Horace stood by the helm till the mate said: “The chain is nearly up and down; now put the tiller gently to starboard.” As he spoke he ran up the jib, and as the boat’s head payed off, fastened the sheet to windward. “Now, Marco, round with the windlass; that is right, the anchor is clear now; up with it.” As he spoke he ran up the foresail. “Slack off the main sheets, lad, handsomely; that is right, let them go free; slack off the mizzen sheets.” The wind had caught the jib now, and, aided by the tide, brought the boat’s head sharply round. The jib and foresheets were hauled to leeward, and in less than a minute from the time the anchor had left the ground the boat was running down the river with her sheets well off before the wind. “Helm a-port a little, Horace, so as to give us plenty of room in passing that brig at anchor. That is enough. Steady! Now keep as you are. Marco, I will help you get the anchor on board, and then we will get up the topsail and set it.” In ten minutes the anchor was stowed, topsail set, and the ropes coiled down. Then a small triangular blue flag with the word “Surf” was run up to the masthead. “Properly speaking, Horace, flags are not shown till eight o’clock in the morning; but we will make an exception this time. Gently with the tiller, lad; you are not steering a fishing-boat now; a touch is sufficient
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    for this craft.Keep your eye on the flag, and see that it flies out straight ahead. That is the easiest thing to steer by when you are dead before the wind. There is more care required for that than for steering close-hauled, for a moment’s carelessness might bring the sail across with a jerk that would pretty well take the mast out of her. It is easy enough now in smooth water; but with a following sea it needs a careful helmsman to keep a craft from yawing about.” Marco had disappeared down the forecastle hatch as soon as he had finished coiling down the topsail halliard, and a wreath of smoke now came up through the stove-pipe. “That is good,” the mate said. “We shall have breakfast before long.” They ran three miles straight out, so as to get well clear of the land; then the sheets were hauled in, and the Surf’s head pointed east, and lying down to her gunwale she sped along parallel with the shore. “We are going along a good seven knots through the water,” the mate said. “She has got just as much sail as she wants, though she would stand a good deal more wind, if there were any occasion to press her; but as a rule, Horace, always err on the right side; there is never any good in carrying too much sail. You can always make more sail if the wind drops, while if it rises it is not always easy to get it in. Give me the helm. Now go down to Marco and tell him to come up a few minutes before breakfast is ready. We will get the topsail off her before we sit down, and eat our breakfast comfortably. There is no fun in having your plate in your lap.” By half-past seven the topsail was stowed and breakfast on the table. Marco took the helm, while the mate and Horace went down to breakfast. Horace thought that it was the most delightful meal he had ever taken; and the mate said: “That Greek of yours is a first-rate cook, Horace. An admiral could not want to sit down to a better breakfast than this. There is not much here to remind me of a midshipman’s mess. You would have had very different food from this, youngster, if you had had your wish and gone to sea. That father of yours must be a trump; I drink his health in
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    coffee. If heever gets a bigger craft, and wants a captain, I am his man if he will send your Greek on board as cook. Does he care for the sea himself?” “I think he used to like it. I have heard him talk about sailing among the Greek islands; but as long as I have known him he has never been away from home except for short runs up to London. He is always in his library.” “Fancy a man who could afford to keep a big craft and sail about as he likes wasting his life over musty old books. It is a rum taste, youngster. I think I would rather row in a galley.” “There are no such things as galleys now, are there?” “Oh, yes, there are in Italy; they have them still rowed by convicts, and I fancy the Spanish gun-boats are rowed by prisoners too. It is worse than a dog’s life, but for all that I would rather do it than be shut up all my life in a library. You seem to talk Greek well, youngster.” “Yes; Marco has always been with me since I was a child, and we have another Greek servant, his brother; and father generally talks Greek to me. His mother was a Greek lady, and that is what made him so fond of it at first. They say he is the best Greek scholar in England.” “I suppose it differs a lot from the Greek you learn at school?” “Yes, a lot. Still, of course, my knowing it helps me tremendously with my old Greek. I get on first-rate at that, but I am very bad at everything else.” “Well, now we will go up and give Marco a spell,” the mate said. Marco was relieved and went below. Horace took the helm; the mate lit a pipe and seated himself on the weather bulwark. “We shall be at Seaport before eleven if we go on like this,” he said. “Oh, do let us take a run out to sea, Mr. Martyn; it is no use our going in until four or five o’clock.”
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    “Just as youlike, lad; I am in no hurry, and it is really a glorious day for a sail. Put up the helm, I will see to the sheets.” As they got farther from the protection of the land the sea got up a bit, but the Surf went over it lightly, and except that an occasional splash of spray flew over her bow, her decks were perfectly dry. “Have you heard of a ship yet, Mr. Martyn?” “Yes, I heard only yesterday of a berth as first-mate in a craft at Plymouth. The first-mate got hurt coming down channel, and a friend of my father’s, learning there was a vacancy, spoke to the owners. She belongs there, and I am to join the day after to-morrow. She is bound up the Mediterranean. I shall be very glad to be off; I have had a dull time of it for the last four months except for this little job.” “I am afraid you won’t get any vehicle to take you back to-night,” Horace said. “No, I didn’t expect that; the coach in the morning will do very well. I have nothing to do but just to pack my kit, and shall go on by coach next morning. I was thinking of sleeping on board here, if you have no objection.” “I am sure my father will be very glad to see you up at the house,” Horace said eagerly. “Thank you, lad, but I shall be much more comfortable on board. Marco said he would get dinner at two, and there is sure to be plenty for me to make a cold supper of, and as there is rum in the locker I shall be as happy as a king. I can smoke my pipe as I like. If I were to go up with you I should be uncomfortable, for I have nothing but my sea-going togs. I should put your father out of his way, and he would put me out of mine. So I think, on all accounts, I had much better remain in good quarters now I have got them. How far is it to the place where I catch the coach?” “About four miles. We will send the carriage to take you there.”
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    “Thank you, Iwould much rather walk. I have nothing to carry but myself, and a four miles’ walk across the hills will be just the thing for me.” At four o’clock the Surf entered the little harbour of Seaport; Horace was delighted with the surprise of the fishermen at the arrival of the pretty craft. “You are sure you won’t change your mind and come up with me to the house?” “Quite certain, thank you, lad. Marco has put out everything I can possibly require. He offered to come down to get breakfast for me, but I prefer to manage that for myself, then I can have it at any time I fancy. I will lock up the cabin before I land. He will be there to take the key.” “I shall come down with him, of course, Mr. Martyn. I can’t tell you how much I am obliged to you for what you have done for me, and I hope that some day we may have another sail together.” “If I am at home any time when you may happen to put in at Exmouth I shall be glad to take a cruise with you, Horace.” As the lad and Marco went up the hill to the house, Horace, to his surprise, met his father coming down with Zaimes. “Well, Horace, so you have brought your yacht home. Zaimes routed me out from my work to come and look at her, and she really looks a very pretty little vessel.” “She is not little at all, father.” “Perhaps not in comparison, Horace; but did you and Marco bring her back by yourselves?” “No, father; William Martyn, the officer who has seen to her fitting up, and who recommended her, you know, said he would come with us. So, of course, he has been in command, and Marco and I have been
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    the crew. Hehas been teaching me lots of things, just the same, he says, as if I had been a newly joined midshipman.” “But where is he now, Horace?” “He is on board. He is going home by the coach to-morrow. I said that I was sure you would be glad if he would come up to the house; but he said he should feel more comfortable on board. Were you coming down to look at her, father?” “Yes, Horace, I was. It is quite a wonderful event my being outside the grounds, isn’t it?” “It is indeed, father. I am so glad you are coming down. I am sure you will like her, and then, perhaps, you will come sailing sometimes; I do think, father, that you would enjoy such a sail as we had to-day, it was splendid.” “Well, we will see about it, Horace. Now I have once come out I may do so again; I am not sure that a good blow might not clear my brain sometimes.” There was quite an excitement in the village when Mr. Beveridge was seen coming down. Occasionally during his wife’s lifetime he had come down with her to look into questions of repairs or erection of new cottages in lieu of old ones, but since that time he had never entered the village. Personally his tenants did not suffer from the cessation of his visits, for his steward had the strictest injunctions to deal in all respects liberally with them, to execute all necessary repairs, to accede to any reasonable request; while in case of illness or misfortune, such as the loss of a boat or nets, the rent was always remitted. That Mr. Beveridge was to a certain extent mad to shut himself up as he did the villagers firmly believed, but they admitted that no better landlord was to be found in all that part of the country. Mrs. Beveridge had been greatly liked, and the people were pleased at Horace being down so much among them; but it was rather a sore subject that their landlord himself held so entirely aloof from them. Men touched their hats, the women curtsied as he came down the
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    street, looking almostwith pity at the man who, in their opinion, so terribly wasted his life and cut himself off from the enjoyments of his position. Mr. Beveridge returned their salutes kindly. He was scarce conscious of the time that had passed since he was last in the village; the years had gone by altogether unmarked save by the growth of Horace, and by the completion of so many works. “I suppose you know most of their names, Horace?” “All of them, I think, father.” “That is right, boy. A landlord ought to know all his tenants. I wish I could find time to go about among them a little more, but I think they have everything they want as far as I can do for them; still, I ought to come. In your mother’s time I did come sometimes. I must try to do it in future. Zaimes, you must see that I do this once a fortnight. I authorize you to bring me my hat and coat after lunch and say to me firmly, ‘This is your afternoon for going out.’” “Very well, sir,” the Greek said. “I will tell you; and I hope you will not say, as you always do to me when I beg you to go out: ‘I must put it off for another day, Zaimes, I have some work that must be done.’” “I will try not to, Zaimes, I will indeed. I think this is a duty. You remind me of that, will you?” By this time they had reached the little port, where a number of the fishermen were still lounging discussing the Surf, which was lying the picture of neatness and good order among the fishing-boats, with every rope in its place, the sails in their snow-white covers, and presenting the strongest contrast to the craft around her. “She is really a very pretty little yacht,” Mr. Beveridge said with more animation than Horace ever remembered to have heard him speak with. “She does great credit to your choice, Marco, and I should think she is a good sea-boat. Why, Zaimes, this almost seems to take one back to the old time. She is about the size of the felucca we used to
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    cruise about in;it is a long time back, nearly eighteen years, and yet it seems but yesterday.” “There is no reason why you should not sail again, master; even I long to have my foot on the planks. One never loses one’s love of the sea.” “I am getting to be an old man now, Zaimes.” “No one would say so but yourself, master; you are but forty-three. Sometimes, after being shut up for days, you look old—who would not when the sun never shines on them—but now you look young, much younger than you are.” A stranger indeed would have had difficulty in guessing Mr. Beveridge’s age. His forehead was broad, his skin delicate and almost colourless, his light-brown hair was already of a silvery shade, his face clean shaven, his hands white and thin. His eyes were generally soft and dreamy, but at the present moment they were bright and alert. His figure was scarcely that of a student, for the frame was large, and there was at present none of the stoop habitual to those who spend their lives over books; and now that he was roused, he carried himself exceptionally upright, and a close observer might have taken him for a vigorous man who had but lately recovered from an attack of severe illness. “We shall see, Zaimes, we shall see,” he said; “let us go on board. You had better hail her, Horace.” “Surf ahoy!” Horace shouted, imitating as well as he could William Martyn’s usual hail. A minute later the mate’s head appeared above the companion. “My father is coming on board, Mr. Martyn. Will you please bring the dinghy ashore.” The mate hauled up the dinghy, got into it, and in a few strokes was alongside the quay. Mr. Beveridge descended the steps first. “I am glad to meet you, Mr. Martyn, and to thank you for the kindness you have shown my son in finding this craft for him and seeing to its being fitted out.”
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    “It has beenan amusement, sir,” the mate said. “I was knocking about Exmouth with nothing to do, and it was pleasant to be at work on something.” “Get in, Horace,” Mr. Beveridge said, “the dinghy won’t carry us all. You can bring it back again for the others.” The party stayed for half an hour on board. Mr. Beveridge was warm in his approval of the arrangements. “This is a snug cabin indeed,” he said. “I had no idea that such a small craft could have had such good accommodation. One could wish for nothing better except for a little more head-room, but after all that is of no great consequence, one does not want to walk about below. It is a place to eat and to sleep in, or, if it is wet, to read in. I really wonder I never thought of having a sailing-boat before. I shall certainly take a sail with you sometimes, Horace.” “I am very glad of that, father, it would be very jolly having you out. I don’t see much of you, you know, and I do think it would do you good.” William Martyn was not allowed to carry out his intention of staying on board, nor did he resist very earnestly Mr. Beveridge’s pressing invitation. His host differed widely from his preconceived notions of him, and he saw that he need not be afraid of ceremony. “You can smoke your pipe, you know, in the library after dinner, Mr. Martyn. I have no objection whatever to smoke; indeed, I used to smoke myself when I was in Greece as a young man—everyone did so there, and I got to like it, though I gave it up afterwards. Why did I give it up, Zaimes?” “I think you gave it up, master, because you always let your cigar out after smoking two or three whiffs, and never thought of it again for the rest of the day.” “Perhaps that was it; at any rate your smoking will in no way incommode me, so I will take no denial.”
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    Accordingly the cabinswere locked up, and William Martyn went up with the others to the house and there spent a very pleasant evening. He had in the course of his service sailed for some time in Greek waters, and there was consequently much to talk about which interested both himself and his host. “I love Greece,” Mr. Beveridge said. “Had it not been that she lies dead under the tyranny of the Turks I doubt if I should not have settled there altogether.” “I think you would have got tired of it, sir,” the mate said. “There is nothing to be said against the country or the islands, except that there are precious few good harbours among them; but I can’t say I took to the people.” “They have their faults,” Mr. Beveridge admitted, “but I think they are the faults of their position more than of their natural character. Slaves are seldom trustworthy, and I own that they are not as a rule to be relied upon. Having no honourable career open to them, the upper classes think of nothing but money; they are selfish, greedy, and corrupt; but I believe in the bulk of the people.” As William Martyn had no belief whatever in any section of the Greeks he held his tongue. “Greece will rise one of these days,” Mr. Beveridge went on, “and when she does she will astonish Europe. The old spirit still lives among the descendants of Leonidas and Miltiades.” “I should be sorry to be one of the Turks who fell into their hands,” William Martyn said gravely as he thought of the many instances in his own experiences of the murders of sailors on leave ashore. “It is probable that there will be sad scenes of bloodshed,” Mr. Beveridge agreed; “that is only to be expected when you have a race of men of a naturally impetuous and passionate character enslaved by a people alien in race and in religion. Yes, I fear it will be so at the commencement, but that will be all altered when they become
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    disciplined soldiers. Doyou not think so?” he asked, as the sailor remained silent. “I have great doubts whether they will ever submit to discipline,” he said bluntly. “Their idea of fighting for centuries has been simply to shoot down an enemy from behind the shelter of rocks. I would as lief undertake to discipline an army of Malays, who, in a good many respects, especially in the handiness with which they use their knives, are a good deal like the Greeks.” “There is one broad distinction,” Mr. Beveridge said: “the Malays have no past, the Greeks have never lost the remembrance of their ancient glory. They have a high standard to act up to; they reverence the names of the great men of old as if they had died but yesterday. With them it would be a resurrection, accomplished, no doubt, after vast pains and many troubles, the more so since the Greeks are a composite people among whom the descendants of the veritable Greek of old are in a great minority. The majority are of Albanian and Suliot blood, races which even the Romans found untamable. When the struggle begins I fear that this section of the race will display the savagery of their nature; but the fighting over, the intellectual portion will, I doubt not, regain their proper ascendency, and Greece will become the Greece of old.” William Martyn was wise enough not to pursue the subject. He had a deep scar from the shoulder to the elbow of his right arm, and another on the left shoulder, both reminiscences of an attack that had been made upon him by half a dozen ruffians one night in the streets of Athens, and in his private opinion the entire extirpation of the Greek race would be no loss to the world in general. “I am very sorry you have to leave to-morrow morning,” Mr. Beveridge said presently. “I should have been very glad if you could have stayed with us for a few days. It is some years since I had a visitor here, and I can assure you that I am surprised at the pleasure it gives me. However, I hope that whenever you happen to be at Exmouth you will run over and see us, and if at any time I can be of the slightest service to you I shall be really pleased.”
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    The next morningWilliam Martyn, still refusing the offer of a conveyance, walked across the hills to meet the coach, and as soon as he had started Horace went down to the yacht. Marco had gone down into the village early, had seen Tom Burdett, and in his master’s name arranged for him to take charge of the Surf, and to engage a lad to sail with him. When Horace reached the wharf Tom was already on board with his nephew, Dick, a lad of seventeen or eighteen, who at once brought the dinghy ashore at Horace’s hail. “Well, Dick, so you are going with us?” “Ay, Master Horace, I am shipped as crew. She be a beauty. That cabin is a wonderful lot better than the fo’castle of a fishing-lugger. She is something like a craft to go a sailing in.” “Good morning, Tom Burdett,” Horace said as the boat came alongside the yacht; “or I ought to say Captain Burdett.” “No, no,” the sailor laughed; “I have been too long aboard big craft to go a captaining. I don’t so much mind being called a skipper, cos a master of any sort of craft may be called skipper; but I ain’t going to be called captain. Now, Dick, run that flag up to the mast-head. That is yachting fashion, you know, Master Horace, to run the burgee up when the owner comes on board. We ain’t got a burgee, seeing as we don’t belong to a yacht-club; but the flag with the name does service for it at present.” “But I am not the owner, Tom, that is nonsense. My father got it to please me, and very good of him it was; but it is nonsense to call the boat mine.” “Them’s the orders I got from your Greek chap down below, Mr. Horace. Says he, ‘Master says as how Mr. Horace is to be regarded as owner of this ’ere craft whenever he is aboard;’ so there you are, you see. There ain’t nothing to be said against that.” “Well, it is very jolly, isn’t it, Tom?”
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    “It suits mefirst-rate, sir. I feel for all the world as if we had just captured a little prize, and they had put a young midshipmite in command and sent me along with him just to keep him straight; that is how I feel about it.” “What sort of weather do you think we are going to have to-day, Tom?” “I think the wind is going to shift, sir, and perhaps there will be more of it. It has gone round four points to the east since I turned out before sunrise.” “And where do you think we had better go to-day, Tom?” “Well, as the wind is now it would be first-rate for a run to Dartmouth.” “Yes, but we should have a dead-beat back, Tom; we should never get back before dark.” “No sir, but that Greek chap tells me as your father said as how there were no occasion to be back to-night, if so be as you liked to make a cruise of it.” “Did he say that? That is capital. Then let us go to Dartmouth; to- morrow we can start as early as we like so as to get back here.” “I don’t reckon we shall have to beat back. According to my notion the wind will be somewhere round to the south by to-morrow morning; that will suit us nicely. Now then, sir, we will see about getting sail on her.” As soon as they began to throw the sail-covers off, Marco came on deck and lent a hand, and in the course of three minutes the sails were up, the mooring slipped, and the Surf was gliding past the end of the jetty. “That was done in pretty good style, sir,” Tom Burdett said as he took up his station by the side of Horace, who was at the tiller. “I reckon when we have had a week’s practice together we shall get up sail as
  • 45.
    smartly as aman-of-war captain would want to see. I do like to see things done smart if it is only on a little craft like this, and with three of us we ought to get all her lower sail on her in no time. That Greek chap knows what he is about. Of course he has often been out with you in the fishing-boats, but there has never been any call for him to lend a hand there, and I was quite surprised just now when he turned to at it. I only reckoned on Dick and myself, and put the Greek down as steward and cook.” “He used to work in a fishing-boat when he was a boy, Tom.” “Ah, that accounts for it! They are smart sailors, some of them Greeks, in their own craft, though I never reckoned they were any good in a square-rigged ship; but in those feluccas of theirs they ain’t easy to be beaten in anything like fine weather. But they ain’t dependable, none of those Mediterranean chaps are, whether they are Greeks or Italians or Spaniards, when it comes on to blow really hard, and there is land under your lee, and no port to run to. When it comes to a squeak like that they lose their nerve and begin to pray to the saints, and wring their hands, and jabber like a lot of children. They don’t seem to have no sort of backbone about them. But in fine weather I allow they handle their craft as well as they could be handled. Mind your helm, sir; you must always keep your attention to that, no matter what is being said.” “Are you going to get up the topsail, Tom?” “Not at present, sir; with this wind there will be more sea on as we get further out, and I don’t know the craft yet; I want to see what her ways are afore we try her. She looks to me as if she would be stiff under canvas; but running as we are we can’t judge much about that, and you have always got to be careful with these light-draft craft. When we get to know her we shall be able to calculate what she will carry in all weathers; but there is no hurry about that. I have seen spars carried away afore now, from young commanders cracking on sail on craft they knew nothing about. This boat can run, there is no mistake about that. Look at that fishing-boat ahead of us; that is Jasper Hill’s Kitty; she went out ten minutes afore you came down. We
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    are overhauling herhand over hand, and she is reckoned one of the fastest craft in Seaport. But then, this craft is bound to run fast with her fine lines and shallow draft; we must wait to see how she will do when there is lots of wind.” In a couple of hours Horace was glad to hand over the tiller to the skipper as the sea had got up a good deal, and the Surf yawed so much before the following waves that it needed more skill than he possessed to keep her straight. “Fetch the compass up, Dick,” the skipper said; “we are dropping the land fast. Now get the mizzen off her, she will steer easier without it, and it isn’t doing her much good. Do you begin to feel queer at all, Mr. Horace?” “Not a bit,” the boy laughed. “Why, you don’t suppose, after rolling about in those fishing-boats when they are hanging to their nets, that one would feel this easy motion.” “No; you would think not, but it don’t always follow. I have seen a man, who had been accustomed to knock about all his life in small craft, as sick as a dog on board a frigate, and I have seen the first lieutenant of a man-of-war knocked right over while lying off a bar on boat service. One gets accustomed to one sort of motion, and when you get another quite different it seems to take your innards all aback.” The run to Dartmouth was quickly made, and to Horace’s delight they passed several large ships on their way. “Yes, she is going well,” Tom Burdett said when he expressed his satisfaction; “but if the wind was to get up a bit more it would be just the other way. We have got quite as much as we want, while they could stand a good bit more. A small craft will generally hold her own in a light wind, because why, she carries more sail in proportion to her tonnage. When the big ship has got as much as she can do with, the little one has to reef down and half her sails are taken off her. Another thing is, the waves knock the way out of a small craft, while the weight of a big one takes her through them without feeling it. Still I
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    don’t say theboat ain’t doing well, for she is first-rate, and we shall make a very quick passage to port.” Running up the pretty river, they rounded to, head to wind, dropped the anchor a short distance from a ship of war, and lowered and stowed their sails smartly. Then Horace went below to dinner. It had been ready for some little time, but he had not liked leaving the deck, for rolling, as she sometimes did, it would have been impossible to eat comfortably. As soon as he dined, the others took their meal in the fo’castle, Marco having insisted on waiting on him while at his dinner. When they had finished, Marco and Dick rowed Horace ashore. The lad took the boat back to the yacht, while the other two strolled about the town for a couple of hours, and then went off again. The next day the Surf fully satisfied her skipper as to her weatherly qualities. The wind was, as he had predicted, nearly south-east, and there was a good deal of sea on. Before getting up anchor, the topmast was lowered, two reefs put in the main-sail and one in the mizzen, and a small jib substituted for that carried on the previous day. Showers of spray fell on the deck as they put out from the mouth of the river; but once fairly away she took the waves easily, and though sometimes a few buckets of water tumbled over her bows and swashed along the lee channels, nothing like a green sea came on board. Tom Burdett was delighted with her. “She is a beauty and no mistake,” he said enthusiastically. “There is many a big ship will be making bad weather of it to-day; she goes over it like a duck. After this, Mr. Horace, I sha’n’t mind what weather I am out in her. I would not have believed a craft her size would have behaved so well in a tumble like this. You see this is more trying for her than a big sea would be. She would take it easier if the waves were longer, and she had more time to take them one after the other. That is why you hear of boats living in a sea that has beaten the life out of a ship. A long craft does not feel a short choppy sea that a small one would be putting her head into every wave: but in a long sea the little one has the advantage. What do you think of her, sir?” “She seems to me to heel over a long way, Tom.”
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    “Yes, she iswell over; but you see, even in the puffs she doesn’t go any further. Every vessel has got what you may call her bearing. It mayn’t take much to get her over to that; but when she is there it takes a wonderful lot to bring her any further. You see there is a lot of sail we could take off her yet, if the wind were to freshen. We could get in another reef in the main-sail, and stow her mizzen and foresail altogether. She would stand pretty nigh a hurricane with that canvas.” It was four o’clock in the afternoon before the Surf entered the harbour. Horace was drenched with spray, and felt almost worn out after the struggle with the wind and waves; when he landed his knees were strangely weak, but he felt an immense satisfaction with the trip, and believed implicitly Tom Burdett’s assertion that the yacht could stand any weather.
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    T CHAPTER III THE WRECK HOSEwere glorious holidays for Horace Beveridge. He was seldom at home; sometimes two of his cousins, the Hendons, accompanied him in his trips, and they were away for three or four days at a time. Three times Mr. Beveridge with Zaimes went out for a day’s sail, and Horace was pleased to see that his father really enjoyed it, talking but little, but sitting among some cushions Zaimes arranged for him astern, and basking in the bright sun and fresh air. That he did enjoy it was evident from the fact that, instead of having the yacht laid up at the end of the holidays, Mr. Beveridge decided to keep her afloat, and retained Tom Burdett’s services permanently. “Do you think, Tom, we shall get any sailing in the winter holidays?” “We are sure to, sir, if your father has not laid her up by that time. There are plenty of days on this coast when the sailing is as pleasant in winter as it is in summer. The harbour is a safe one though it is so small, and I don’t see any reason why she shouldn’t be kept afloat. Of course we shall have to put a stove in the cabin to make it snug; but with that, a good thick pea-jacket, warm gloves, and high boots, you would be as right as a nail.” And so at Christmas and through the next summer holidays Horace enjoyed almost constant sailing. He was now thoroughly at home in the boat, could steer without the supervision of the skipper, and was as handy with the ropes as Dick himself. “This is the best job I ever fell into, Mr. Horace,” Tom Burdett said at the end of the second summer. “Your father pays liberal; and as for grub, when that Greek is on board a post-captain could not want better. It is wonderful how that chap does cook, and he seems downright to like it. Then you see I have got a first-rate crew. Dick is
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    as good asa man now; I will say for the Greek, he is a good sailor as well as a good cook; and then you see you have got a deal bigger and stronger than you were a year ago, and are just as handy either at the tiller or the sheets as a man would be, so we are regular strong- handed, and that makes a wonderful difference in the comfort on a craft.” That summer they sailed up to Portsmouth, and cruised for a week inside the Isle of Wight, and as Horace had one of his school-fellows spending the holidays with him, he enjoyed himself to the fullest of his capacity. During the holidays Horace did not see much of his father, who, quite content that the boy was enjoying himself, and gaining health and strength, went on in his own way, and only once went out with him during his stay at home, although, as Marco told him, he generally went out once a week at other times. The first morning after his return, at the following Christmas, Horace did not as usual get up as soon as it was light. The rattle of the window and the howl of the wind outside sufficed to tell him that there would be no sailing that day. Being in no hurry to move, he sat over breakfast longer than usual, talking to Zaimes of what had happened at home and in the village since he last went away. His father was absent, having gone up to town a week before, and Horace had, on his arrival, found a letter from him, saying that he was sorry not to be there for his return, but that he found he could not get through the work on which he was engaged for another two days; he should, however, be down at any rate by Christmas-eve. After breakfast Horace went out and looked over the sea. The wind was almost dead on shore, blowing in such violent gusts that he could scarce keep his feet. The sky was a dull lead colour, the low clouds hurrying past overhead. The sea was covered with white breakers, and the roar of the surf, as it broke on the shore, could be heard even above the noise of the wind. Putting on his pea-jacket and high boots, he went down to the port. As it had been specially constructed as a shelter against south-westerly winds, with the western pier overlapping the other, the sea did not make a direct sweep into it; but the craft inside were all rolling heavily in the swell.
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    “How are you,Tom? It is a wild day, isn’t it?” “Don’t want to see a worse, sir. Glad to see you back again, Mr. Horace. Quite well, I hope?” “First-rate, Tom. It is a nuisance this gale the first day of coming home. I have been looking forward to a sail. I am afraid there is no chance of one to-day?” “Well, sir, I should say they would take us and send us all to the loonatic asylum at Exeter if they saw us getting ready to go out. Just look at the sea coming over the west pier. It has carried away a bit of that stone wall at the end.” “Yes. I didn’t really think of going out, Tom, though I suppose if we had been caught out in it we should have managed somehow.” “We should have done our best, in course,” the sailor said, “and I have that belief in the boat that I think she might weather it; but I would not take six months’ pay to be out a quarter of an hour.” “What would you do, Tom, if you were caught in a gale like this?” “If there weren’t land under our lee I should lay to, sir, under the storm-jib and a try-sail. Maybe I would unship the main-sail with the boom and gaff, get the top-mast on deck and lash that to them; then make a bridle with a strong rope, launch it overboard, lower all sail, and ride to that; that would keep us nearer head on to the sea than we could lie under any sail. That is what they call a floating anchor. I never heard of a ship being hove-to that way; but I was out on boat service in the Indian Ocean when we were caught in a heavy blow, and the lieutenant who was in charge made us lash the mast and sails and oars together and heave them overboard, and we rode to them right through the gale. We had to bale a bit occasionally, but there was never any danger, and I don’t think we should have lived through it any other way. I made a note of it at the time, and if ever I am caught in the same way again that is what I shall do, and what would be good for a boat would be good for a craft like the Surf.”
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    This conversation wascarried on with some difficulty, although they were standing under the lee of the wall of a cottage. “She rolls about heavily, Tom.” “She does that, sir. It is lucky we have got our moorings in the middle of the harbour, and none of the fishing-boats are near enough to interfere with her. You see most of them have got their sails and nets rolled up as fenders, but in spite of that they have been ripping and tearing each other shocking. There will be jobs for the carpenter for some time to come. Five or six of them have torn away their bulwarks already.” After waiting down by the port for an hour Horace returned to the house. When luncheon was over he was just about to start again for the port, when Marco said to him: “Dick has just been in, sir. There is going to be a wreck. There are a lot of fishermen gathered on the cliff half a mile away to the right. They say there is a ship that will come ashore somewhere along there.” “Come on, then, Marco. Did you hear whether they thought that anything could be done?” “I did not hear anything about it. I don’t think they know where she will go ashore yet.” In a few minutes they reached the group of fishermen standing on the cliff. It was a headland beyond which the land fell away, forming a bay some three miles across. A large barque was to be seen some two miles off shore. She was wallowing heavily in the seas, and each wave seemed to smother her in spray. Tom Burdett was among the group, and Horace went up to him at once. “What’s to prevent her from beating off, Tom? She ought to be able to work out without difficulty.” “So she would at ordinary times,” the skipper said; “but she is evidently a heavy sailer and deep laden. She could do it now if they
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    could put moresail on her, but I expect her canvas is all old. You see her topsails are all in ribbons. Each of them seas heaves her bodily to leeward. She is a doomed ship, sir, there ain’t no sort of doubt about that; the question is, Where is she coming ashore?” “Will it make much difference, Tom?” “Well, it might make a difference if her master knew the coast. The best thing he could do would be to get her round and run straight in for this point. The water is deeper here than it is in the bay, and she would get nearer ashore before she struck, and we might save a few of them if they lashed themselves to spars and her coops and such like. Deep as she is she would strike half a mile out if she went straight up the bay. The tide is nearly dead low, and in that case not a man will get ashore through that line of breakers. Then, again, she might strike near Ram’s Head over there, which is like enough if she holds on as she is doing at present. The Head runs a long way out under water, and it is shallower half a mile out than it is nearer the point. There is a clump of rocks there.” “I don’t remember anything about them, Tom, and we have sailed along there a score of times.” “No, sir, we don’t take no account of them in small craft, and there is a fathom and a half of water over them even in spring-tides. Springs are on now, and there ain’t much above nine foot just now; and that craft draws two fathom and a half or thereabouts, over twelve foot anyhow. But it don’t make much difference; wherever she strikes she will go to pieces in this sea in a few minutes.” “Surely there is something to be done, Tom?” “Some of us are just going down to get ropes and go along the shore, Mr. Horace; but Lor’ bless you, one just does it for the sake of doing something. One knows well enough that it ain’t likely we shall get a chance of saving a soul.” “But couldn’t some of the boats go out, Tom? There would be plenty of water for them where she strikes.”
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    “The fishermen havebeen talking about it, sir; but they are all of one opinion; the sea is altogether too heavy for them.” “But the Surf could go, couldn’t she, Tom? You have always said she could stand any sea.” “Any reasonable sort of sea, Mr. Horace, but this is a downright onreasonable sort of sea for a craft of her size, and it is a deal worse near shore where the water begins to shallow than it would be out in the channel.” But though Tom Burdett spoke strongly, Horace noticed that his tone was not so decided as when he said that the fishing-boats could not go out. “Look here, Tom,” he said, “I suppose there must be thirty hands on board that ship. We can’t see them drowned without making a try to save them. We have got the best boat here on the coast. We have been out in some bad weather in her, and she has always behaved splendidly. I vote we try. She can fetch out between the piers all right from where she is moored; and if, when we get fairly out, we find it is altogether too much for her, we could put back again.” Tom made no answer. He was standing looking at the ship. He had been already turning it over in his mind whether it would not be possible for the Surf to put out. He had himself an immense faith in her sea-going qualities, and believed that she might be able to stand even this sea. “But you wouldn’t be thinking of going in her, Mr. Horace?” he said doubtfully at last. “Of course I should,” the lad said indignantly. “You don’t suppose that I would let the Surf go out if I were afraid to go in her myself.” “Your father would never agree to that if he were at home, sir.” “Yes, he would,” Horace said. “I am sure my father would say that if the Surf went out I ought to go in her, and that it would be cowardly to let other people do what one is afraid to do one’s self. Besides, I
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    can swim betterthan either you or Dick, and should have more chance of getting ashore if she went down; but I don’t think she would go down. I am nearly sixteen now; and as my father isn’t here I shall have my own way. If you say that you think there is no chance of the Surf getting out to her there is an end of it; but if you say that you think she could live through it, we will go.” HORACE SUGGESTS A RESCUE
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    “I think shemight do it, Mr. Horace; I have been a saying so to the others. They all say that it would be just madness, but then they don’t know the craft as I do.” “Well, look here, Tom, I will put it this way: if the storm had been yesterday, and my father and I had both been away, wouldn’t you have taken her out?” “Well, sir, I should; I can’t say the contrary. I have always said that the boat could go anywhere, and I believe she could, and I ain’t going to back down now from my opinion; but I say as it ain’t right for you to go.” “That is my business,” Horace said. “Marco, I am going out in the Surf to try to save some of the men on board that ship. Are you disposed to come too?” “I will go if you go,” the Greek said slowly; “but I don’t know what your father would say.” “He would say, if there was a chance of saving life it ought to be tried, Marco. Of course there is some danger in it, but Tom thinks she can do it, and so do I. We can’t stand here and see thirty men drowned without making an effort to save them. I have quite made up my mind to go.” “Very well, sir, then I will go.” Horace went back to Tom Burdett, who was talking with Dick apart from the rest. “We will take a couple of extra hands if we can get them,” the skipper said. “We shall want to be strong-handed.” He went to the group of fishermen and said: “We are going out in the Surf to see if we can lend a hand to bring some of those poor fellows ashore. Young Mr. Beveridge is coming, but we want a couple more hands. Who will go with us?” There was silence for a minute, and then a young fisherman said:
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