Ati Professional Development Short Course Space Mission Analysis Design

Professional Development Short Course On:

Space Mission Analysis and Design

Instructor:

Edward L. Keith

ATI Course Schedule: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm

ATI's Grand Systems Requirements: http://www.aticourses.com/space_mission_analysys.html

e
e

at
at

lic
l
ia
om lic

up
er
.c up

at

D
es D

IM

ot
rs ot

N
om AT
ou N

o
Ic o

D
.c •
AT l • D

l
ia
www.ATIcourses.com

es te

l•

er
rs a

ia
w. a

ic

at
om er
w ri

ou pl

M
w ate

.c at
Ic u

TI
D

es M
M

Boost Your Skills

•A
ot

rs TI
349 Berkshire Drive
I
AT

w. N

ou A

te
Riva, Maryland 21140
AT

with On-Site Courses
w Do

Ic te •

.c ca
Telephone 1-888-501-2100 / (410) 965-8805

te
om
es li
ca
l•

om a
rs up
Tailored to Your Needs
Fax (410) 956-5785
w

.c lic
ia

w. li

ou D
Email: ATI@ATIcourses.com
w up
er

es up
AT

Ic ot
at

w D

rs D
AT N
M

The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical professionals. Our courses keep you
ot

ou ot
o
current in the state-of-the-art technology that is essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly
N
I

Ic N
w. D
AT

competitive marketplace. Since 1984, ATI has earned the trust of training departments nationwide, and has presented
o

AT Do
l•
D

on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a large number of contractors. Our training
ia
l•

increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn from the proven best.

w. •
er

w ial
ia

w
at
er

w

er
For a Free On-Site Quote Visit Us At: http://www.ATIcourses.com/free_onsite_quote.asp
IM
at

at
IM

AT

IM
For Our Current Public Course Schedule Go To: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm
w
AT

AT

November 3-5, 2009
Beltsville, Maryland
NEW! June 22-24, 2010
Beltsville, Maryland
$1590 (8:30am - 4:00pm)
"Register 3 or More & Receive $10000 each
Off The Course Tuition."

Summary
This three-day class is intended for both
students and professionals in astronautics and
space science. It is appropriate for engineers,
scientists, and managers trying to obtain the best
mission possible within a limited budget and for
students working on advanced design projects or
just beginning in space systems engineering. It is Course Outline
the indispensable traveling companion for 1. The Space Missions Analysis and Design
seasoned veterans or those just beginning to Process
explore the highways and by-ways of space 2. Mission Characterization
mission engineering. Each student will be 3. Mission Evaluation
provided with a copy of Space Mission Analysis 4. Requirements Definition
and Design [Third Edition], for his or her own
5. Space Mission Geometry
professional reference library.
6. Introduction to Astro-dynamics
7. Orbit and Constellation Design
8. The Space Environment and Survivability
Instructor
9. Space Payload Design and Sizing
Edward L. Keith is a multi-discipline Launch 10. Spacecraft Design and Sizing
Vehicle System Engineer, specializing
11. Spacecraft Subsystems
in the integration of launch vehicle
technology, design, and business 12. Space Manufacture and Test
strategies. He is currently conducting 13. Communications Architecture
business case strategic analysis, risk 14. Mission Operations
reduction and modeling for the Boeing 15. Ground System Design and Sizing
Space Launch Initiative Reusable 16. Spacecraft Computer Systems
Launch Vehicle team. For the past five years, Ed has 17. Space Propulsion Systems
supported the technical and business case efforts at
Boeing to advance the state-of-the-art for reusable 18. Launch Systems
launch vehicles. Mr. Keith has designed complete 19. Space Manufacturing and Reliability
rocket engines, rocket vehicles, small propulsion 20. Cost Modeling
systems, and composite propellant tank systems, 21. Limits on Mission Design
especially designed for low cost, as a propulsion and 22. Design of Low-Cost Spacecraft
launch vehicle engineer. His travels have taken him 23. Applying Space Mission Analysis and Design
to Russia, China, Australia and many other launch
operation centers throughout the world. Mr. Keith
has worked as a Systems Engineer for Rockwell
International, on the Brillant Eyes Satellite Program What You Will Learn
and on the Space Shuttle Advanced Solid Rocket • Conceptual mission design.
Motor project. Mr. Keith served for five years with • Defining top-level mission requirements.
Aerojet in Australia, evaluating all space mission • Mission operational concepts.
operations that originated in the Eastern • Mission operations analysis and design.
Hemisphere. Mr. Keith also served for five years on
• Estimating space system costs.
Launch Operations at Vandenberg AFB, California.
Mr. Keith has written 18 papers on various aspects • Spacecraft design development, verification and
of Low Cost Space Transportation over the last validation.
decade. • System design review .

Register online at www.ATIcourses.com or call ATI at 888.501.2100 or 410.956.8805 Vol. 99 – 21

Introductions
• Brave new pioneers, who are you?
– What is your interest in Space Mission Analysis and
Design
• Where do you work?
– What is your specialty
• What other disciplines do you interface with?
• What are your goals with regards to Space Mission
Analysis and Design

35 years ago, I wanted to retire and open a restaurant on
top of the Martian peak of Olympus Mons, what a view.
It seemed possible 35 years ago.

© 2005-2007, Edward L. Keith Space Mission Analysis and Design ATI
0-2

Breaks
• Classes start at 8:30 AM
– Two breaks of 5 -10 minutes in the morning
– Lunch for 1-hour
– Two breaks of 5 -10 minutes in the afternoon
• Class ends at 4:30 PM

• The instructor is available during breaks for off-line
discussions
• The instructor will be in class 30-minutes prior to the start
of the day and 30-minutes after the class for questions and
answers or other discussion
– Use this time to expand your experience or rest those
grey cells

• MY TIME IS YOUR TIME

© 2005-2007, Edward L. Keith Space Mission Analysis and Design ATI
0-3

Companion Book
• This class requires each student
to own a copy of SPACE
MISSION AND DESIGN, Third
Edition
• This book is under copyright
protection, and slides in this
class incorporate drawings from
the book.
• Therefore, these slides are
presented only on the condition
that each student viewing the
class owns the above book
• This presentation has alternative
interpretations and updates to
bring the class to the present
space era
© 2009, Edward L. Keith Space Mission Analysis and Design ATI
0-4

The Class Outline
1. The Space Missions Analysis 12. Space Manufacture and Test
and Design Process 13. Communications Architecture
2. Mission Characterization 14. Mission Operations
3. Mission Evaluation 15. Ground System Design and
Sizing
4. Requirements Definition
16. Spacecraft Computer Systems
5. Space Mission Geometry 17. Space Propulsion Systems
6. Introduction to Astro- 18. Launch Systems
dynamics 19. Space Manufacturing and
7. Orbit and Constellation Reliability
Design 20. Cost Modeling
8. The Space Environment and 21. Limits on Mission Design
Survivability 22. Design of Low-Cost
9. Space Payload Design and Spacecraft
Sizing 23. Applying Space Mission
10. Spacecraft Design and Sizing Analysis and Design
11. Spacecraft Subsystems

0-5

Squeezing 976 Pages Into 3-Days
• This three day class cannot cover every aspect of a 976-
page book
– We will cover the essentials, which means keeping each
chapter to about 17 slides and one hour, on average
• Some More, Some Less (and there tends to be
overlap in chapters which will be eliminated as much
as practical)

0-6

The Book
• The companion book, your reference and text book, is a
good compilation of experiences that fairly collects the
process of creating space missions
– With significant overlap
– With engineering opinions (not science) as to reducing
costs
– With cost reduction strategies for specific niches
– With lessons learned
• As we learn about Space Mission Analysis and Design,
keep in mind that there are things we should change, things
that are dangerous to change, things done without true
understanding of why they are being done and decisions
that are made that constrain us needlessly
– As we shall see in the the next four charts;

0-7

Why Shouldn’t We Change Things?
• According to Harrison Storms (1916-1992)* a problem
occurred in the Apollo Program that baffled engineers
– An NTO Tank under test with NTO (Nitrogen Tetroxide)
suddenly failed, unexpectedly, and for no reason, twice
– Eventually, the engineers questioned the suppliers of
NTO (N2O4), asking “is there anything different with the
batch of NTO you supplied?”
– The answer was “yes, this is for the Moon program, so
we double-purified the NTO!”
• It turns out that double purifying the NTO reduced
the water content to a point that NTO unexpectedly
attacked titanium, as it did not normally do so with
“normal-grade” NTO

* According to the controversial Book by Mike Gray, Angle of Attack

0-8

Why Should We Change Things?
• A general visited Vandenberg AFB * in the early part of the
space age to watch a payload being lifted to the top of a
service tower or gantry
– The procedure had the payload lifted by service tower
overhead crane, paused, moved sideways, paused, lifted
upward, paused, moved sideways paused, moved the
other way, paused, moved upward to the payload level
paused, and then moved in to the service tower
• At each pause, an inspector stamped a completion of
the procedure step
• “Why didn’t the procedure have the payload go
straight up, without moving sideways twice?” Asked
the General
• “There used to be a beam we had to go around,” said
the Test Conductor, “and we never changed the
Procedure”
* Second-Hand Story , validity cannot be guaranteed
0-9

Why Flippant Decisions Can Haunt Us
• This from an Engineer on the team that designed the
McDonnell-Douglas Thor (later Delta) in the mid-1950s
– The USAF Thor IRBM rivaled the Army Jupiter IRBM
– An engineer at a Review was discussing the advantages
and disadvantages of putting the LOX tank above or
below the Fuel tank
• The engineer knew the LOX tank should be on top to
shift the CG forward to nearer the Cp
• “Where is the Army placing their LOX tank?” Asked
the Air Force Program manager
• “On top” replied the Engineer
• “Then we’ll put ours on the bottom” the PM ordered
• The Delta-II still has the LOX tank on the bottom
• The original Delta-IV design in Late-1990s wasn’t working
out, until the design was changed to put the LOX on top

* Second-Hand Story, validity cannot be guaranteed
0-10

Why We Need to Document Our Reasons
• The Viking Sounding Rocket, which later became the NASA
Vanguard first stage, was an early American rocket design
program
– A design controversy involved the shape of Viking tail
fins, should they be triangular or be like arrow feathers
like the German V-2
– At the next major Review, the V-2 style fins were favored
– At the Review, a former German engineer asked why the
tail fins were similar to the V-2 shape?
– The engineer said it was because it was assumed the
Germans had a good reason for their tail fin shape
– “Yes,” said the German Engineer, “we had to use a long
and narrow shape for the fins so they could be
transported through railroad tunnels
• Eventually, the Viking had triangular fins

* Second-Hand Story, validity cannot be guaranteed
0-11

This Class Taylored to MSFC
• Space Mission Analysis and Design is a class that is so
wide, but of limited depth, that it can be tailored to the
needs of specific organizations
– Some emphasis on propulsion issues will be made to be
more relevant to Marshall Space Flight Center
• We want the training to help keep MSFC and NASA
on the cutting edge of excellence, and avoid the kind
of story, below;
• Lawmakers Slash $670 Million From NASA Budget Request
• WASHINGTON 6/8/09— In a move that reflects the
uncertainty surrounding NASA's current strategy for
replacing the space shuttle and returning astronauts to the
Moon by 2020, House appropriators slashed by 16 percent
the space agency's $4 billion request for manned space
exploration in 2010.

0-12

The Space Missions Analysis and
Design Process

Space, the final frontier!

Reference Pages 1-18
0-13

Space Mission Analysis & Design Process

Define Define broad objectives and constraints
Objectives Estimate quantitative mission needs and requirements
Define alternative mission concepts
Define alternative mission architectures
Characterize
the Mission Identify system drivers for each
Characterize mission concepts and architectures
Identify critical requirements
Evaluate
Define and Evaluate mission utility
the Mission
Define mission concept (Baseline)

Define Define system requirements
Requirements Allocate requirements to system elements

Reference Pages 2-5
Define 0-14

Changes in Future Space Missions
• Maturation of Technology
– Solid State Revolution
• Tube era  Transistor era  Large Scale Integration
– 1957 to present
• Increasing use of on-board processing
– More processing on spacecraft, less on the ground
– Less communication bandwidth requirements
– Less ground intensive operations
• Continuing emphasis on low cost missions
– Better, Faster, Cheaper era
– Smaller satellites with greater capability
– Lower budgets for space
• Since end of the Cold War and collapse of Little LEO
Reference Pages 5-7
0-15

Space Mission Life Cycle
• Life cycle phases vary from one organization to another
– Concept Exploration
• Early requirements and trade studies to refine the
mission concept are explored and documented
– Detailed Development
• All requirements and specifications are published
and the detailed design is executed to completion
– Production and Deployment
• The Hardware and software is produced. Loaded,
tested, evaluated, changed as needed and finally
launched into space
– Operations and Support
• The spacecraft, now in space, is operated to
complete the mission objectives and problems are
resolved

0-16

Phases of a Space Mission

NASA

Mission Concept
Review
Mission Definition
Review
System Requirements
Review

Table 1-2, Page 8
0-17

Space Mission Architecture
• All space missions
involve
– Subject of the
mission
– Launch to the orbit
– The orbit location
– A payload and
spacecraft
– Command and
control
– Ground Elements
– Mission Operations

Figure 1-3, Page 11
0-18

Multiple Organizations Involved

Customer
or
Scientists

Contractor
i.e. Boeing et al

Government
i.e. NASA

Figure 1-2, Page 9
0-19

What is Wrong With This Figure?
Lowest cost ≠ Highest Value

Is the total cost curve realistic?

Where is Revenue or Value Curve?
Figure 1-5, Page 17
0-20

Step 1 Definition of Mission Objectives
• Define mission objectives
– Broad Goal from the mission statement
• Primary and secondary
• Incorporate the needs of the user
• The book does not suggest that the definition of mission
objectives is a large document
– The implication is that the Definition of mission
objectives can be a paragraph
• Shorter than the vague description

0-21

Step 2 Preliminary Estimates
• preliminary estimate of mission needs. Requirements and
constraints
– Functional Requirements
• To define how well the system must perform to meet
the mission objectives
– Operational Requirements
• How it will be operated and how users will interact
with the results of the mission
– Constraints
• Limits on cost, schedule (deadlines), and
implementation techniques selected
– Example – Do ASPR apply, NASA SE Handbooks,
ITAR, etc.

0-22

Is SMAD the Ultimate Roadmap?
• The textbook for this class is good, it has the points of view
of a spectrum of authors
– Like every technology, some is already obsolete
– The methods and procedures suggested in the book are
generally Business as Usual (BAU) and support the
status quo
– Some material suggests better ways of doing business
• But they cannot necessarily be universally applied
– Can more science be applied to better our way of doing
business?
• Optimization
• Relationships
• Decisions

0-23

Conclusions and Observations
• This is the start of a roadmap for developing space
missions
– Some of the roadmap is vague, philosophical and soft
– Other parts are solid, like the Regime (USAF, NASA,
ESA) managing programs with hard requirements like
Quality, Inspection, Traceability and other standards
than must be complied with
• There is a lot of iteration in the Space Mission Analysis and
Design process
– Which explains part of the reason it takes many years to
create a space mission
• This class is invited to read the FIRESAT Mission example,
but it will not be used in this class

0-24

Mission Characterization

The “Fuzzy” process of Mission Characterization is
explored in this Chapter.

0-25

Introducing Mission Characterization
• Mission characterization is the process of selecting and
defining the space mission
– By applying requirements and constraints to pare down
the list of alternatives
• Mission Concept
– “A broad statement of how the mission will work, in
practice”
• Mission Operations
– “The details of how people will operate and control the
mission”
• Mission Architecture
– “Mission Concept plus a definition of each major
element of the mission”

Space Mission Analysis and Design ATI
0-26

Concept Evaluation Flow
• The Concept Evaluation flow
is not satisfactory because
– Where is the exit?
– Is this an invitation to
analysis paralysis?
– A justification for the fact
it takes about seven years,
if all goes well, to get a
satellite program off Terra
Firma?
• The Authors have probably
mapped the process
accurately, but is the process
optimized? Reference Figure 2-1,
Pages 20
– You be the judge
0-27

Alternative Mission Concepts
• There are always different ways to skin the proverbial cat
– The book implies that different mission concepts be
created and judged
– An alternative is to have one Mission Concept and trade
the details
– In practice, there are times when the Mission Concept is
a “given” and the design team must work within the
constraints of the given mission concept
• Example – Voyager “Grand Tour” mission began
with the observation that the planetary alignment to
visit all the outer planets was occurring shortly, and
wouldn’t repeat for a couple of centuries, so the
mission concept is to swing by all these planets
– The trades were what measurements to make

0-28

Data Delivery
• Types of Data
– Mission Data
• Payload Purposes
– Housekeeping
• Support for the Mission
• Attitude, orbit, temperature, battery voltage, etc.
• Principal Trades
– Space vs. Ground Processing
• How Split
– Central vs. Distributed Processing
– Level of Autonomy
• Part of the Space-Ground Trade
• Mission and Housekeeping Fusion (as in attitude and
Mission)

Reference Pages 24
0-29

Space vs. Ground Processing Trades
• This trade made possible by high-capacity small computers
and large-scale integrated circuits of all kinds
• Autonomy
– How much interactivity is desirable?
• Latency of Data
– How much delay in data delivery is acceptable?
• Near real time or store and forward
• Space processing allows the data to be “compressed” to
exclude unwanted data, thus reducing the communications
requirements for the mission
• Space processing, or autonomy, allows some operations
and decisions to be made on the spacecraft, reducing the
ground segment burden
– Decisions are normally ground-based
Reference Pages 25
0-30

Alternative Mission Architectures
• A Mission Architecture consists of a Mission Concept plus
specific set of options
– We can have more than one Mission Concept
• Each can have several options for each element of
the mission
– How do we gather the mission information?
– How do we process the mission information?
– How do we transmit the mission information?
– What location (Orbit) do we gather the mission
information from?
• Etc.
• Each element is “Traded” internally to each architecture
and more than one architecture is evaluated

0-31

System Drivers
• “System Drivers are the principal mission parameters or
characteristics which influence performance, cost risk or
schedule and which the user or designer can control”
– Size
• Size is limited by fairing size of the launch vehicle
and affects antenna diameter, aperture size and the
mechanisms required to deploy antennas, solar
panels and other appendages
– On-Orbit Weight
• Heavier weight on orbit drives the design to require
larger and more costly launch vehicles
– Power Requirements
• Power requires generation (solar panels) and storage
(batteries), all which add to cost and weight

0-32

System Drivers (Continued)
– Data Rate
• Selection of data rates drive processing and antenna
size (higher rates may require more effective power,
obtained from antenna gain from larger antenna and
greater power amplifier output)
– Communications
• Drives coverage, availability and ground station or
relay satellite requirements
– Pointing
• Resolution and system accuracy pushes up system
cost
– Number of Spacecraft
• Coverage, frequency of observations and overlap
increased at an increase of cost

0-33

– Altitude
• Launch vehicle performance (payload capacity) is
reduced with altitude, but coverage increases
• Should include inclination choice at this point, as
higher inclination decreases payload capacity but
increases the portion of the world covered by the
mission
– Should be included in On-Orbit Weight
– Coverage
• Geometry and timing affected by coverage
• A function or Orbit, Altitude and maneuvering
requirements

0-34

– Scheduling
• Timeline, operations, timing and communications
can be traded for mission utility, coverage and
responsiveness
– Operations
• Cost, ground station manpower and communications
• Operations identified (wrongly?) as a frequent cost
driver, principal error source (really?) and “pushes
demand for autonomy”
– Note: the author / editor of this text is a strong
proponent of spacecraft autonomy
– Operations, especially NASA operations, has a
history of saving lost missions
• Apollo 13, Galileo, Hubble, etc.

0-35

Characterizing Mission Architecture
• This is the Authors (Wertz
and Reinert) view of the
process of characterizing
the Mission Architecture
– Looks like organized
chaos? Where does the
Rat get out? Where is
the Cheese?
– The process can be
complicated, but do we
really need to
institutionalize it?
– What do you think?

0-36

• The Authors have really done a good job of mapping the
processes, and even in adding clarity and organization
– The critique of this chapter especially, and the book in
general, is that we should be doing much better in
Space Mission Analysis and Design than we are
• That will be your long term assignment;
– Make the system work Better, Faster, Cheaper
• So we can get more bang for the Buck
• The purpose of this chapter is to make sure we have
explored alternatives to a depth that we are making good
decisions
– Not throwing the baby out with the proverbial Bathwater

0-37

Very Long Mission Life Cycle
• Mission Life Cycles can space a
career
– Seven years from concept to
launch is not an exaggeration, it is NASA
a goal for fast-moving projects Photo
• NASA Gravity Probe Life Cycle No ©
– Proposed (1959) by MIT Professor
George Pugh
– Proposed and supported by NASA
(1961)
– Funded (1964-1977)
– NASA changes launch vehicle “We thank NASA for
from Shuttle to Delta-II (1986) forty-four years of
– Launch (2004) and still flying continued support
– Preliminary results announced since issuing the first
(2007) Research”
http://einstein.stanford.edu/highlights/status1.html

0-38

Mission Evaluation

The Concept Refinement must include evaluation
of the candidate mission concepts. This
chapter explores Mission Evaluation and the Go
or No-Go gate determining if the Concept is
acceptable.

0-39

Identification of Critical Requirements
• Look at the principal performance requirements
– Coverage or response time
– Resolution
– Sensitivity
– Mapping Accuracy
– Transmit Power
– Orbit Lifetime
– Survivability
• Look at top level requirements
• Look for hidden requirements

0-40

Mission Utility
• “Mission Utility Analysis quantifies mission performance as
a function of design, cost, risk and schedule
– This is an area where a controversy should occur
• Performance of the design can be subjective
• Cost is analyzed by cost models, and should be
accurate to about +/- 30%
• If there is a cost over-run, it is usually in coincidence
with a cost over-run
• Risk tends to be poorly assessed by Engineers
– Pressure to conform
– Highly Subjective
– All to often in ignorance of history

0-41

Mission Analysis
• “Mission analysis is the process of quantizing the system
parameters and resulting performance”
– Document reasons for choices
– Spread Sheet documentation allows for dynamic
analysis and updates
• Now a common practice
– Feasibility Assessment
– Size
– Point Design
• Description of the Concept under study
– Performance Assessment (Parameters)
– Utility Assessment (How well)

0-42

Mission Concept Selection
• Go – No-Go Decisions
– Does the candidate system meet the overall mission
objective?
– Is the candidate system technically feasible?
– Is the level of risk acceptable?
– Are the schedule and budget within established
constraints?
– Do preliminary results show this option to be better than
non-space solutions?
• See next Slide
– Does the mission meet political objectives?
• Space Shuttle, Space Station and Dinosaurs

0-43

Special Observations
• There have been instances where non-space solutions have
been a serious blow to space programs
– Iridium and Global Star went bankrupt when competing
against terrestrial-based cell phone technology
– Transponder leasing rate fell 10-fold (from $300 per hour
to $30 per hour) as a result of undersea fiber optic
cables that provided better (clearer, less delay) digital
wide band communications previously served by
satellite
• Beware of wild ideas for space applications that can be
done on Earth
– Terra Form Venus and Mars when no one wants to Terra
Form the Sahara Desert
– Space Power, when 10,000 square miles of ground
solar-thermal or photo-voltaic will meet all domestic
power needs

0-44

• The chapter is long on wording but short on objective
metrics in Mission Evaluation
– Mission selection is often more political than logical
• As recognized by the Chapter authors
• Suggested Alternative
– Monetize all parameters to achieve a common
denominator
– Evaluate Risk based on Historical Observations like
Cost Models use historic cost
– The design team is probably the worst organization to
evaluate Risk, and realism of the Schedule
• All too often over-optimistic

Let’s explore Advancing Risk Management in the next 5 slides

0-45

3
Current Risk Management Process
• Risk are tracked by Specific Risk on a “Color Grid Chart”
– According to Likelihood (Red, Yellow and Green)
– And According to Consequences

• Identify all risks
• Determine probability
• Model outcomes

• Risk Mitigation Likelihood
• Return to Realism
• Back-Up Plans

Not in SMAD Book Consequences
© 2002, Edward L. Keith 0-46

3
Risk Mitigation Plan (Bad Tire)
•Found Split in tire on night of August 2nd at La Verne
California en route to Las Vegas Nevada (228 miles)
– Consequences of High-Speed Blowout Severe
– No replacement until morning, spare good for only 50 to
100 miles
X
Reduce speed from
A
– > 80MPH to < 60MPH
Re-Inspect in Barstow B

Likelihood
A
Near Range of Spare
Arrive in Las Vegas A
Replace Tire
Next Morning
A
Not in SMAD Book Consequences
© 2002, Edward L. Keith 0-47

What’s Wrong With The Process?
• What is wrong with the prior Risk Mitigation Plan?
– Treats Management like “Comic Book Readers”
– Very Subjective (both to likelihood and consequences)
• No real Science behind the process
– No assurance all risks are really and realistically
addressed or classified
– Decisions made from such charts may be far
from optimum
– Risk mitigation strategies may be superficial and
unresponsive to real world factors
• A better system is highly desirable, but requires less
laziness in implementation and operation

Not in SMAD Book
0-48

Alternative Risk Management
• Scientific Characterization of Historic Risks, with statistical
values determined from history
• Quantify the likelihood of all risks as a probability function
• Quantify consequences in terms of a common denominator
– Cost ($)
• Rate risk mitigation on the criteria of lowering the product
of the probability of events or occurrences happening and
the cost consequences
• Identify every significant risk
• Identify inter-related risks
– i.e. Cost Risk & Schedule Risk, where a Schedule slip
causes () a cost overrun
• Integrate and Model (using Computer application) risks
• Track Changes in Risk  Make decisions on trends
Not in SMAD Book Space Mission Analysis and Design ATI
0-49

Adding Science to the Analysis
• Can we add the Scientific Method to Risk Analysis?
– Yes, by analyzing the cause of past failed Projects and
creating a data base of the problems that caused the
failure
• Try This
– Go to the local Technical Library and look up back
issues of AVIATION WEEK or SPACE NEWS over a
period of several month, at least 10-years back
• How many Projects were announced?
• How many succeeded?
– Succeeded / Announced  Near Zero or Low
• Yet the supporters of each one honestly
believed at the time that their project was a
“Sure-Fire Winner”
Not in SMAD Book
0-50

You have enjoyed ATI's preview of

Please post your comments and questions to our blog:
http://www.aticourses.com/wordpress-2.7/weblog1/

Sign-up for ATI's monthly Course Schedule Updates :
http://www.aticourses.com/email_signup_page.html

Ati Professional Development Short Course Space Mission Analysis Design

More Related Content

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked (8)

Similar to Ati Professional Development Short Course Space Mission Analysis Design (20)

More from Jim Jenkins (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Ati Professional Development Short Course Space Mission Analysis Design