Australia's education system in the mirror of other OECD systems

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Seeing your educationsystem in the mirror of OECD systemsCanberra, 13-14 May 2010

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Is the skythe limit?1.There is nowhere to hideThe yardstick for educational success is no longer improvement by national standards but the best performing systems internationally2.Where we are – and where we can be Where Australia and other countries stand What the best performing countries show can be achieved3.How we can get thereSome policy levers that emerge from international comparisons

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Domain 1Individual learnerLevelALevelBInstructionalsettingsLevelCSchools, other institutionsCountry or systemLevelDDimensions for international benchmarkingDomain 3Domain 2Antecedentscontextualise or constrain ed policyPolicy Leversshape educational outcomesOutputs and Outcomesimpact of learningQuality and distribution of knowledge & skillsIndivid attitudes, engagement and behaviourSocio-economic background of learnersStudent learning, teacher working conditionsQuality of instructional deliveryTeaching, learning practices and classroom climateThe learning environment at schoolCommunity and school characteristicsOutput and performance of institutionsNational educ, social and economic contextSocial & economic outcomes of educationStructures, resource alloc and policies

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There is nowhereto hideThe yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national standards but the best practice internationally

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A world ofchange – highereducationExpenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Cost per studentGraduate supplyTertiary-type A graduation rate

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A world ofchange – highereducationExpenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)United StatesCost per studentFinlandJapanGraduate supplyTertiary-type A graduation rate

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A world ofchange – highereducationExpenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)AustraliaFinlandUnited KingdomTertiary-type A graduation rate

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A world ofchange – highereducationExpenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)Tertiary-type A graduation rate

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A world ofchange – highereducationWhat about international students?Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)United StatesAustraliaAAUnited KingdomFinlandATertiary-type A graduation rate

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Moving targetsFuture supplyof college graduates

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Components of theprivate net present value for a male with higher education27K$56K$170K$105K$35K$26K$367K$Net present value in USD equivalent

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Public cost andbenefits for a male obtaining post-secondary educationPublic costsPublic benefitsNet present value, USD equivalent(numbers in orange shownegative values)USD equivalent

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How the demandfor skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distributionThe dilemma of schools:The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource (Levy and Murnane)

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OECD’s PISA assessmentof the knowledge and skills of 15-year-oldsCoverage of world economy83%77%81%85%86%87%

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Strengths and weaknessesin mathThe real worldThe mathematical WorldMaking the problem amenable to mathematical treatmentA mathematical model A model of realityUnderstanding, structuring and simplifying the situationUsing relevant mathematical content to solve the problemA real situationValidating the resultsMathematical resultsReal resultsInterpreting the mathematical results

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High science performanceAverageperformanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply… 18 countries perform below this lineLow science performance

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Modelling the impactProgrammesto improve cognitive skills through schools take time to implement and to have their impact on students.Assume that it will take 20 years to implement reformThe impact of improved skills will not be realised until the students with greater skills move into the labour forceAssume that improved PISA performance will result in improved skill-based of 2.5% of the labour-force each yearThe economy will respond over time as new technologies are developed and implemented, making use of the new higher skillsEstimate the total gains over the lifetime of the generation born this year .

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Relationship between testperformance and economic outcomesAnnual improved GDP from raising performance by 25 PISA pointsPercent addition to GDP

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Increase average performanceby 25 PISA points (Total 115 trillion $)bn$

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Catching up withFinland (total 260 trillion $)bn$

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Catching up withFinland(in percent of GDP)% currrent GDP

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Increased likelihood ofpostsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1)Odds ratioCollege entrySchool marks at age 15PISA performance at age 15

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Interest scienceIndicate curiosityin science and science-related issues and endeavoursDemonstrate willingness to acquire additional scientific knowledge and skills, using variety of resources and methodsDemonstrate willingness to seek information and have an interest in science, including consideration of science-related careers Support for scienceAcknowledge the importance of considering different scientific perspectives and argumentsSupport the use of factual information and rational explanationLogical and careful processes in drawing conclusions Knowledge of sciencePhysical systems (structure of matter, properties of matter, chemical changes of matter, motions and forces, energy and its transformations, energy and matter)Living systems (cells, humans, populations, ecosystems, biosphere)Earth and space (structures of the earth system, energy in the earth system, change in the earth system, earth’s history, space)Technology systems (Concepts and principles, science and technology)Knowledge about scienceScientific enquiry (purpose, experiments, data, measurement, characteristics of results)Scientific explanations (types, rules, outcomes)IdentifyingRecognising issues that can be investigated scientificallyIdentifying keywords in a scientific investigationRecognising the key features of a scientific investigationExplainingApplying knowledge of science in a situationDescribing or interpreting phenomena scientifically or predicting changeUsing evidenceInterpreting scientific evidence and drawing conclusionsIdentifying the assumptions, evidence and reasoning behind conclusionsContext- PersonalSocial/public

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GlobalCompetenciesIdentify scientific issues

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Explain phenomena scientifically

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Use scientific evidenceKnowledgeKnowledgeof science

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Knowledge about scienceAttitudes-Interestin science-Support for scientific enquiry-Responsibility

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Strengths and weaknessesof countries in science relative to their overall performanceFranceScience competenciesScience knowledgeOECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13

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Strengths and weaknessesof countries in science relative to their overall performanceCzech RepublicScientific competenciesScientific knowledgeOECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13

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Strengths and weaknessesof countries in science relative to their overall performanceAustraliaScientific competenciesScientific knowledgeOECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies for Tomorrow’s World, Figure 2.13

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High science performanceAverageperformanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and applyHigh average performanceLarge socio-economic disparitiesHigh average performanceHigh social equityStrong socio-economic impact on student performanceSocially equitable distribution of learning opportunitiesLow average performanceLarge socio-economic disparitiesLow average performanceHigh social equityLow science performance

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High science performanceDurchschnittlicheSchülerleistungen im Bereich MathematikHigh average performanceLarge socio-economic disparitiesHigh average performanceHigh social equityStrong socio-economic impact on student performanceSocially equitable distribution of learning opportunitiesLow average performanceLarge socio-economic disparitiesLow average performanceHigh social equityLow science performance

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Student performancePISA Indexof socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background GermanyStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background withinschoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundSchools proportional to size

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Student performancePISA Indexof socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background GermanyStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background withinschoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundSchools proportional to sizeUniversal policiesIncreasing educational performance of all children through reforms applied equally across the school system, e.g.

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Altering content orpace of curriculum

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Improving instructional techniques

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Changing the learningenvironment in schools and classrooms

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Standards and accountability

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Teacher professional developmentStudentperformancePISA Index of socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background GermanyStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background withinschoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundCompensatory policiesProviding additional economic resources to students from disadvantaged backgrounds

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Different to socio-economicallytargeted policies, efforts are directed to ameliorating economic circumstances, rather than providing specialised curriculum or additional educational resourcesSchools proportional to size

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Student performancePISA Indexof socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background GermanyStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background withinschoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundSocio-economically targeted policiesProviding a specialised curriculum or additional educational resources to students from disadvantaged backgrounds

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Students are oftenalso identified through other risk factors, e.g. immigration, ethnicity, low-income communitySchools proportional to size

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Student performancePISA Indexof socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background GermanyStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background withinschoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundPerformance targeted policiesProviding additional economic resources to students based on their academic performance

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Early intervention programmes

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Remedial and recoveryprogrammes

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Performance-based tracking orstreamingSchools proportional to size

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Student performancePISA Indexof socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background United StatesStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background within schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundSchools proportional to size

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Student performancePISA Indexof socio-economic backgroundAdvantageDisadvantageSchool performance and socio-economic background FinlandStudent performance and students’ socio-economic background within schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic backgroundSchools proportional to size

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How to getthereSome policy levers that emerge from international comparisons

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Money matters -but other things do too

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Spending choices onsecondary schoolsContribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costsper student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004)Percentage points

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High ambitionsand universalstandardsRigor, focus and coherenceGreat systemsattractgreatteachers and provideaccesstobestpractice and quality professional development

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Challenge and supportStrongsupportPoor performanceImprovements idiosyncraticStrong performanceSystemic improvementLowchallengeHighchallengePoor performanceStagnationConflictDemoralisationWeak support

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International Best PracticeThepastPrincipals who are trained, empowered, accountable and provide instructional leadership

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Principals who manage‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered

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Attracting, recruiting andproviding excellent training for prospective teachers from the top third of the graduate distribution

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Attracting and recruitingteachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms

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Incentives, rules andfunding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent

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The best teachersare in the most advantaged communitiesHuman capital

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International Best PracticeThepastExpectations of teachers are clear; consistent quality, strong professional ethic and excellent professional development focused on classroom practice

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Seniority and tenurematter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality

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Teachers and thesystem expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this

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Wide achievement gaps,just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in placeHuman capital (cont…)

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Some teachers losemuch more time than othersPercentiles of time on spent on taskFigure 4.10Source: OECD, TALIS Database.

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Relatively few teachersparticipate in the kinds of professional development which they find has the largest impact on their work Comparison of teachers participating in professional development activities and teachers reporting moderate or high level impact by types of activityFigure 3.15

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Relatively few teachersparticipate in the kinds of professional development which they find has the largest impact on their work Comparison of teachers participating in professional development activities and teachers reporting moderate or high level impact by types of activityFigure 3.15

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The teachers whopaid most also did most professional developmentFigure 3.10

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High ambitionsDevolvedresponsibility,theschoolasthecentreofactionAccountabilityandintervention ininverse proportiontosuccessAccess to best practice and quality professional development

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Local responsibility andnational prescriptionTowards system-wide sustainable reformNational prescriptionSchools todayThe industrial model, detailed prescription of what schools doSchools tomorrow?Building capacityFinland todayEvery school an effective schoolSchools leading reform

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Pooled international dataset,effects of selected school/system factors on science performance after accounting for all other factors in the modelSchool principal’s positive evaluation of quality of educational materials(gross only)Schools with more competing schools(gross only)Schools with greater autonomy (resources)(gross and net)School activities to promote science learning(gross and net)One additional hour of self-study or homework (gross and net)One additional hour of science learning at school (gross and net)School results posted publicly (gross and net)Academically selective schools (gross and net) but no system-wide effectSchools practicing ability grouping (gross and net)One additional hour of out-of-school lessons (gross and net)20Each additional 10% of public funding(gross only)School principal’s perception that lack of qualified teachers hinders instruction(gross only)Effect after accounting for the socio-economic background of students, schools and countriesMeasured effectOECD (2007), PISA 2006 – Science Competencies from Tomorrow’s World, Table 6.1a

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Does appraisal andfeedback make a difference for the job?Figure 5.5

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Strong ambitionsDevolvedresponsibility,the schoolas the centre of actionIntegrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learningAccountabilityAccess to best practice and quality professional development

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High science performanceDurchschnittlicheSchülerleistungen im Bereich MathematikHigh average performanceLarge socio-economic disparitiesHigh average performanceHigh social equityStrong socio-economic impact on student performanceSocially equitable distribution of learning opportunitiesEarly selection and institutional differentiation High degree of stratification Low degree of stratificationLow average performanceLarge socio-economic disparitiesLow average performanceHigh social equity6Low science performance

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Assist countries inimproving economic and social outcomes through better skills and their effective utilisationResponsiveness Ensuring that education/training providers can adapt efficiently to changing demandQuality and efficiency in learning provision Ensuring that the right skills are acquired at the right time, right place and in the most effective modeFlexibility in provision Allowing people to study/train what they want, when they want and how they wantTransferability of skills Such that skills gained are documented in a commonly accepted and understandable formEase of access Reducing barriers to entry such as institutional rigidities, up-front fees and age restrictions, existence of a variety of entry and re-entry pathwaysLow costs of early exit Recognition for components of learning, modular provision, credit accumulation and credit transfer systems exist .

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OECD Skills StrategyHowdo we identify and assess essential skills for strong, sustainable and balanced growth and what are the factors driving the evolution of skill demand? Is the right mix of skills being taught and learned and can employers find workers with the skills they need? Pillar 2(ELS)Pillar 1 (EDU and ELS)How can governments build strong coalitions with the business sector and social investors and find sustainable approaches to who should pay for what, when, where and how much?Pillar 3(EDU)Pillar 4(EDU and LEED)Are skills developed in effective, equitable, efficient and sustainable ways?

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Pillar 1: Driversfor skill demandA work programme with four pillarsIssues

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Changing skill demandswithin jobs – often driven by technology

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Increased demand forcertain occupations affecting the composition of aggregate skills demand

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New types ofjobs, driven by innovation – in products and in services

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Greater need fortransferable skills, in part driven by greater labour mobility .

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Work proposals

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Balancing occupation-specific andgeneric skills [ELS]

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Skill demands intechnology-rich environments [PIAAC]

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Skill demands ofinnovative firms [CERI]

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Skill demands inhealth and green jobs [ELS]

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Economic and socialoutcomes of skills [PIAAC, CERI] .How do we identify and assess essential skills for strong, sustainable and balanced growth and what are the factors driving the evolution of skill demand? Is the right mix of skills being taught and learned and can employers find workers with the skills they need? Pillar 2(ELS)Pillar 1 (EDU and ELS)How can governments build strong coalitions with the business sector and social investors and find sustainable approaches to who should pay for what, when, where and how much?Pillar 3(EDU)Pillar 4(EDU and LEED)Are skills developed in effective, equitable, efficient and sustainable ways?

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Pillar 2: Rightmix of skills learned and taught?A work programme with four pillarsIssues

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Increasingly complex anddynamic labour-markets combined with depreciation of domain-specific knowledge require individuals to upgrade their skills more regularly leading to changing patterns of work and learning

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Individual and aggregateskill mismatches can be associated with ineffective signalling of labour market demands to education providers and individuals but can also be the consequence of a lack of responsiveness on the part of education and training providers

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Age training gaps,gender gaps

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Work proposals

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Prevalence and consequencesof skills mismatch [EDU/ELS]

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Improving the utilisationof human capital [ELS]

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Preventing skill obsolesenceamong displaced workers [ELS]

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Understanding the impactof age on skills [ELS] .How do we identify and assess essential skills for strong, sustainable and balanced growth and what are the factors driving the evolution of skill demand? Is the right mix of skills being taught and learned and can employers find workers with the skills they need? Pillar 2(ELS)Pillar 1 (EDU and ELS)How can governments build strong coalitions with the business sector and social investors and find sustainable approaches to who should pay for what, when, where and how much?Pillar 3(EDU)Pillar 4(EDU and LEED)Are skills developed in effective, equitable, efficient and sustainable ways?

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Pillar 3: Areskills developed in effective, equitable and sustainable waysA work programme with four pillarsIssues

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Establishing efficient andfair ways of lifelong and lifewide learning, and ensuring responsiveness, quality and flexibility in provision

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Incentive systems andsupport structures to enhancing skills through the formal educational system, in the work-place or through incentives addressed at the general population and training

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Establishing an appropriatemix of academic and vocational learning in ways that reflect student preferences and employers’ needs, with vocational training providing immediate employability, but also basic transferable skills to support occupational mobility

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Work proposals

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New learning organisations[CERI]

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Vocational education andtraining [EDU]

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Equity in accessand educational mobility [PIAAC, PISA]

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Utilising the skillpotential of immigrants [ELS]

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Developing innovation orientedskills [CERI] .How do we identify and assess essential skills for strong, sustainable and balanced growth and what are the factors driving the evolution of skill demand? Is the right mix of skills being taught and learned and can employers find workers with the skills they need? Pillar 2(ELS)Pillar 1 (EDU and ELS)How can governments build strong coalitions with the business sector and social investors and find sustainable approaches to who should pay for what, when, where and how much?Pillar 3(EDU)Pillar 4(EDU and LEED)Are skills developed in effective, equitable, efficient and sustainable ways?

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Pillar 4: Whoshould pay for what, when, where and how much?A work programme with four pillarsIssues

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Building new relationships,networks and coalitions between learners, providers, governments, businesses, social investors and innovators that bring together the legitimacy, innovation, and resources that are needed to make lifelong learning a reality for all

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Finding ways toencourage both employers and students to participate in workplace training, and ensuring that such training is of good quality, with effective quality assurance and contractual frameworks for apprentices

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Mobilising time andmoney

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Work proposals

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Joining up localskill strategies .How do we identify and assess essential skills for strong, sustainable and balanced growth and what are the factors driving the evolution of skill demand? Is the right mix of skills being taught and learned and can employers find workers with the skills they need? Pillar 2(ELS)Pillar 1 (EDU and ELS)How can governments build strong coalitions with the business sector and social investors and find sustainable approaches to who should pay for what, when, where and how much?Pillar 3(EDU)Pillar 4(EDU and LEED)Are skills developed in effective, equitable, efficient and sustainable ways?

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PIAAC will…in eachcountry interview 5000 adults aged 16-65 in their homes and test their skillscollect information on the antecedents, outcomes and contexts of skill development and use… in order to…provide a comprehensive assessment of the human capital stockFor high performers, show to what extent they are able to apply their skills to solve challenging problems requiring mastery of technology For those with low literacy, show to what extent their problem is with performing basic reading functions or with understanding and applicationshow to what extent skills held by individuals are actually used at work and identify the role skills play in improving labour market prospects of at-risk populations improve understanding of the labour market and social returns to education and traininghelp governments better understand how education and training systems can nurture these skills .

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High potential policyimpactxDescription of the population with low skills, or special population groups such as immigrants, and interrelationships with labour-market outcomes.

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What is therole of skills in explaining differences in labour-market outcomes between immigrant and native-born workers? Do skill differences depend on where human capital was acquired? Do immigrants receive different returns to these skills than observationally similar native-born workers?

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To what extentcan and do skills play a role in levelling the playing field, both in terms of providing high quality education to all and giving access to higher education to those who are able and motivated to continue their schooling, irrespective of their social background?

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Further analysis onintergenerational mobility will also be possible with the JRA measurement of what people do in their jobsThe competitive advantages of OECD countries in the global competition for jobs Quick winsMust havesWhere does initial education leave us in terms of skill supply with their different forms of organisation of the education and training system?

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Has the rapidgrowth in educational attainment translated into better foundation skills?

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How do theresults compare to those observed in earlier schooling (PISA)? How do people gain and lose skills as they grow older?

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How will changesin the age structure of populations and aspects such as educational attainment feed through to the future talent pool?

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Labour force skillsand the price of these skills are crucial to understand in the perspective of increasing global competition for jobs higher up in the skill hierarchy. PIAAC can tell us more about which cognitive and non-cognitive skills are important in particular.

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PIAAC can providesystematic insights into the risks and rewards for skills in the labour market, for individuals and economies, as well as for specific subgroups such as immigrantsAdult competencies and their as well as economic and social outcomesaggregateindividualWhat can we learn about the impact of age on skills and skill utilisation, how has this changed over recent decades and the policy levers associated with this (separating biological effects of aging from differences in the experiences of cohorts over time)?How well do education and training systems deliver in generating the required competenciesIs education or skills mismatch mostly confined to youth early on in their professional careers and subsequently diminishes? Is mismatch important and does it translate into large earnings penalties? Have education and training systems in OECD countries shown sufficient adaptability in the face of changing skill demands or are skills mismatches endemic? How do task-based learning (JRA) and job-related training relate to the length of the working life? (but keep in mind that labour-market outcomes and training are snapshots in time whereas the measured skills are accumulated over the lifespan)Improving the labour-market prospects of those at riskHow well can adults solve problems in technology-rich environments? How does this relate to the incidence and intensity of using information technology in and outside workLow feasibility/costlyHigh feasibilityEquity and intergenerational mobilityAgeing and skillsCapitalising on technology-rich environmentsWhat levels of skills do individuals and countries demonstrate, and how do these relate to educational attainment?Money pitsLow-hanging fruits…Reasonable potential for policy(Skip examples)

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OutcomesA Skills Strategyfor OECD countriesAn integrated work programme on skills across the entire organisationA regularly published OECD Skills Outlook that, with a combination of comparative analysis and country studies, will: Trace the development of skills, through their utilisation in labour markets, how they feed into better jobs, higher productivity, and ultimately better economic and social outcomesCustomise policy insights from comparative analysis and peer learning so that they are useful in national policy contextsProvide a catalyst for policy discourse on national skill strategiesContribute to building strategic partnerships for successful policy implementation .

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State of playPIAACis now at a critical juncture of moving from an international strategy towards national implementationWhere we are…PIAAC strategy agreed among countriesInternational project consortium in placeAgreement on the scope of the initial report and a discussion on further analytic workFull pilot in all countries, majority of countries now in the field (1400 respondents, 2010),… and what remains aheadReview of field trial results and development of main data collection instrumentsMain data collection (2011/2012)Public release of results (2013) .

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State of play

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The qualifications weacquired don’t tell us everything about the skills we haveMean problem solving1,2 scores on a scale with range 0-500 points, by level of educational attainment, populations aged 16-65, 20031 – less than upper secondary2 – upper secondary3 – post-secondary/non-tertiary4 – tertiary educationSource: International Adult Literacy and Life Skills Study (ALLS)

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Skill make adifference for labourmarket outcomesThe probabilities of unemployed adults aged 16 to 65 to exit unemployment over a 52 week period, by low (Levels 1 and 2) and medium to high (Levels 3 and 4/5) skills, document scale, 2003High skills(Levels 3, 4 and 5)Low skills(Levels 1 and 2)Source: International Adult Literacy and Life Skills Study (ALLS)

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Thankyou!

Australia's education system in the mirror of other OECD systems

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