Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
(Bangladesh in 21st Century)
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Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman
Director (Deputy Secretary), IMED
trsumon@gmail.com
Ministry of Planning
Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur
Rahman
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1. Development Planning and Management Ecosystem in Bangladesh
2. Business as Usual VS BDP 2100
3. Delta Opportunities
4. Delta Challenges
5. BDP 2100: Vision, Goals and Adaptive Approach
6. BDP 2100 Strategies
7. Financing Strategy & Investment Plan
8. BDP 2100 Governance: Implementation Coordination, Monitoring and
Evaluation and Delta Knowledge Hub
9. Delta Decision Support Tool and Knowledge Management
Discussion Points

1. Development Planning and Management Ecosystem in Bangladesh
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Education Sector Health sector Env & CC etc.
Mid-term national development plan: Five Year Plans
Long-term national development framework:
BDP 2100, NAP, Perspective Plan 2041
Vision
Annual plans (Annual Development Programs)
Overall development objectives
169 targets 17
SDGs
Implementation of Individual Projects included in the ADP
NAP Targets
M&E by IA, IM, GED & IMED and Auditing
Priorities for the year
Sectoral mid-term strategies
(Not yet operationalized)
National mid-term strategy
Sectoral Action Plans
MTBF-KPI

2. BAU vs BDP 2100
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Extreme Poverty in BDP 2100 Scenario
Extreme Poverty in BAU Scenario
Macroeconomic Analysis done for BDP 2100 reveals that in Business As Usual (BAU) policy option,
the extreme poverty will be eradicated around 2041. But, if the country adopt Delta Plan policy
option the extreme poverty could be eradicated around 2027.
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Implication of BDP 2100 for Poverty Eradication

Per Capita Nominal GDP (USD)
Income Gap between BAU Scenario and Government’s scenario with
9% growth
There is an average loss of real GDP of 1.3% per year in
this scenario compared with the government’s target of
maintaining 9% GDP growth until FY2041. This would
add up to an approximate loss USD 741 billion by FY
2041, estimated as the cumulative loss of income by
FY2041 between BAU Scenario and the government’s 9%
growth environment (Figure 5.6 of BDP 2100).
Figure 5.13 of BDP 2100
Bangladesh may fall into the middle income trap in
the absence of higher levels of investment on
adaptation, requiring much longer time to become
a higher middle income country if environmental
risks become more severe. It is also conceivable
that without the Delta Plan implementation and in
the event of the worst case climate change
scenario, Bangladesh may not attain UMIC status
for a long period of time.
0
50
100
150
200
0
10
20
30
40
FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FY28FY29FY30FY31FY32FY33FY34FY35FY36FY37FY38FY39FY40FY41
bn, $
%
Income Gap (bn, $) Income Gap (% of DP GDP)
9537
16422
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 FY26 FY28 FY30 FY32 FY34 FY36 FY38 FY40
Per Capita Nominal GDP (USD, BAU)
6
Implication of BDP 2100 for Poverty Eradication
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Region FY16 FY21 FY31 FY41
Haor 0.05 0.11 0.22 0.34
Coastal -0.50 -2.29 -6.33 -10.72
CTG Hill 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.12
Urban 0.69 3.97 11.38 19.43
Drought Prone -0.16 -0.73 -2.02 -3.42
Rivers & Estuaries -0.34 -1.55 -4.30 -7.29
Less Risky Region 0.24 0.46 0.95 1.47
Region wise Migration in BAU Scenario (in million)
Region FY16 FY21 FY31 FY41
Haor 0.05 0.15 0.38 0.62
Coastal -0.50 -1.41 -3.45 -5.67
CTG Hill 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.22
Urban 0.69 1.94 4.76 7.78
Drought Prone -0.16 -0.45 -1.10 -1.81
Rivers & Estuaries -0.34 -0.96 -2.34 -3.86
Less Risky Region 0.24 0.66 1.63 2.66
Region wise Migration in DP Scenario (in million)
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• 6th most vulnerable country in the world in terms of risks from natural hazards.
• Deltaic formation is still going on
• Frequent tidal surge, salinity, flooding, river erosion, earthquakes and cyclones
• Resulting continuous challenge to food security and livelihood security
• Other challenges include growing urbanization, declining land availability, infrastructure
shortages, energy supply constraints and dearth in labour skills
• Climate Change exacerbates all these
• In view of the long term challenges presented by climate change and natural hazards, the
Government has formulated a long term Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100).
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 and it’s Context:

3. Opportunities
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Opportunities: Diversified Eco-system
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Land Types-
▪ Agricultural land: 65%
▪ Forest lands: 17%
▪ Urban areas: 8%
▪ Water and wetlands:
10%.
▪ Water bodies about 4.70 million ha;
▪ Access to the Bay of Bengal up to 1.125 million sq. km.
▪ It could serve the needs of growing internal trade and
commerce;
▪ Could become a regional hub for international sea
transportation.
Open Access To Sea Is A Huge Advantage -
Plentiful Rivers-
(around 700 nos.)
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The Sundarbans –
➢ The largest natural mangrove forest;
➢ Unique ecosystem covers an area of 577,000 ha of which
401,600 ha land and remaining 175,400 ha is under water.
Opportunities: Diversified Eco-system (Cont’d)
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On the basis of physiographical,
hydrological, meteorological,
and ecological features, the
IUCN (2002) has delineated
25 Bio-ecological
Zones of Bangladesh
Source: CEGIS, 2014
For Analytical Purposes, the
ecosystem of the country can
broadly be divided into 2
categories:
I. Aquatic Ecosystem
II. Terrestrial Ecosystem

Source: A directory of Asian Wetlands, 1989
I. Aquatic Ecosystem
Wetland types Area (‘000 ha)
Permanent rivers and streams 480
Estuarine and mangrove swamps 610
Shallow lakes and marshes 120-290
Large water storage reservoirs 90
Small tanks and fish ponds 150-180
Shrimp ponds 90-115
Seasonally-flooded flood plains 5,770
Table: Types of Wetlands and their Estimated Area during the Wet Season
The aquatic ecosystem of the country is derived from river hydrology and water characteristics (freshwater
and saline water). Hence, the Aquatic Ecosystem can be divided as fresh water and saline water ecosystems.

Map: Forest Zones of
Bangladesh
Source: Banglapeida, 2015
II. Terrestrial Ecosystem
Ecologically, Bangladesh delta is represented by Five
Broad Natural Forest Types:
a. Tropical wet evergreen on eastern and
northeastern hills
b. Tropical semi-evergreen on eastern hills,
c. Tropical moist deciduous/ sal forests on central
and north western terraces,
d. Mangrove forests facing the sea and
e. Freshwater swamp forests in low lying areas of
Sylhet.

-- 2 RAMSAR sites,
-- 13 Ecologically Critically Areas (ECA),
-- 17 National Parks,
-- 20 Wildlife Sanctuaries,
-- 8 Eco Parks and
-- 2 Botanical Gardens in Bangladesh ).
In order to preserve ecosystem balance in the country,
several types of Protected Areas have been established.
For example,
there are:
Opportunities: Present Status of Eco-system Balance
• Important five ECAs are as below:
✓ Hakaluki Haor (18,382 ha),
✓ Tanguar Haor (9727 ha),
✓ Sonadia Island (4,916 ha),
✓ St Martin’s Island (590 ha),
✓ Teknaf Peninsula (10,465 ha);
• Over 800 species of wildlife identified in ECAs.

4. Challenges
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Banglades
h
ecosystem
s depend
on
regional
river
systems:
(Ganges-
Brahmaput
ra/
Jamuna-
Meghna)
India (79%), Nepal (14%)
Bangladesh (4%), China (3%)
China (49%), India (35%),
Bhutan (9%), Bangladesh
(7%)
India (57%),
Bangladesh (43%)
Distribution of GBM Basin
India 64%
China 18%
Nepal 8%
Bangladesh 7%
Bhutan 3%
Challenges: Geographical Location
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Challenge:
Transboundary River Management
Total 57 100%

Figure: Climate change impact on flow of the Brahmaputra
at Bahadurabad in 2030 and 2050. Source: IWM (2014a).
Max. Discharge
1998: 1,03,000 m^3/sec
2050: 1,16,00 m^3/sec (CSIRO,2014)
Figure: Climate change impact on flow of the Ganges at
Hardinge Bridge in 2030 and 2050. Source: IWM (2014a).
Max. Discharge
1998: 72,000 m^3/sec
2050: 90,000 m^3/sec (CSIRO,2014)
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Challenge: Seasonal River Water Discharge

Figure: Climate change impact on flow of the Meghna at Amalshid in
2030 and 2050. Source: IWM (2014a).
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Challenge: Seasonal River Water Discharge (Cont’d)

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103 78 83
184
604
1422
17951762
1458
951
361
168
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Discharge,
m3/sec
Month
Discharge of Teesta river at dalia point from
the year 1979 upto 2020
14 10 11
25
81
190
240 236
195
127
48
22
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Percentage(%)
Month
Percentage(%)
Challenge: Seasonal River Water Discharge (Cont’d)
Figure: Discharge of Teesta River At Dalia Point From The Year 1979 Up to 2020
Source: BWDB
Avg. 747 Cumec Avg. 100%

Table: Monthly Water Balance in Major Rivers of Bangladesh
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Months
Ganges &
Brhamaputra
Discharges
(bcm)
Other Trans
boundary
Rivers
Discharge
(bcm)
IRWR
(bcm)
Monthly
RW
(bcm)R
EWR
(bcm)
Available
RWR
(bcm)
Water
Demand
(bcm)
Excess(+) or
Shortage (-)
January 22.5 2.32 0.33 25.15 20.42 4.73 6.96 -2.24
February 16.58 1.71 0.83 19.12 18.45 0.67 10.32 -9.65
March 18.61 1.92 1.97 22.5 20.42 2.08 12.44 -10.36
April 26.18 2.7 4.99 33.87 19.77 14.1 4.25 9.85
May 48.75 5.04 11.68 65.47 20.42 45 0.9 44.15
June 95.39 9.85 20.13 125.37 19.77 105.6 0.43 105.18
July 181.6 18.76 22.81 223.17 20.42 202.75 1.5 20.25
August 222.44 22.98 18.16 263.58 20.42 243.16 0.83 242.34
September 197.9 20.44 14.05 232.39 19.77 212.62 0.69 211.92
October 111.55 11.52 8.05 131.12 20.42 110.7 0.94 109.76
November 46.39 4.79 1.61 52.79 19.77 33.02 1.39 31.64
December 29.06 3 0.39 32.45 20.42 12.03 4.61 7.41
Challenge: Monthly Water Balance in Major Rivers of Bangladesh
Source: Chittagong University of Engineering & Technology, 2016

1954
1987
1998
2004
1988
Inundation 28%
Inundation 35%
Estimated damage US$ 1.0 billion
Death toll 2,055
Inundation 61%
Death toll 6,500
Inundation 69%
Death toll 1,100
Inundation 38%
Estimated damage US$2.0 billion
Death toll 700
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Challenge: Flood Control

Figure: Increase in depth of flooding for the 1988 flood due to the additional impacts of projected 2030 & 2050 climate change.
CC 2030 & 2050
against 1988
Flood
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2050
2030
Challenge: Flood Control (Cont’d)

Infrastructural Damage
Household Loss
Displacement
Loss of Assets
Total Erosion: 6,000 ha/ yr
Displacement: 50,000 person/yr
Land Loss Low Production
2600 ha/yr
1900
ha/yr
1500 ha/yr
Jamuna (40%), Padma (5%), and Meghna (6%) erosion will increase by next 100 years 25
Challenge: River Bank Erosion & Consequences

Increasing intensity of Cyclones due to Climate
Change (10 cyclones in last 30 yrs; 11 Cyclones in
100 yrs from 1876-1977)
Areas vulnerable to inundation more than 1m and
3m, would be 14% and 69%
10-year-return period cyclone will be more
intense covering 43% of the vulnerable area,
17% more than current coverage
Coastal embankments, afforestation, evacuation
through 10000+ volunteers, warning dissemination
etc. are using for cyclone and storm surge
management
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Challenge: Cyclone and Storm Surge

Overall Trend 6-20 mm/year
7-8 mm/yr
6-9 mm/yr
11-20
mm/yr
Challenge: Sea Level Rise
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32 cm SLR (Area 10612 sqkm)
Legend
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Challenge: Increasing Salinity with Sea Level Rise

Group Species
Extinct in
Banglades
h
Threat category (National)
Data
Deficient
(DD)
Critically
Endangered
(CR)
Endangere
d
(EN)
Vulnerable
(VU)
Total
Fishes 653 0 12 28 14 54 66
Amphibians 34 0 0 3 5 8 7
Reptiles 154 1 12 24 22 58 39
Birds 650 30 19 18 4 41 158
Mammals 120 10 21 13 6 40 53
Total (2000) 1611 41 64 86 51 201 323
Total (2015) 1619 31 56 181 153 390 278
Table : National Status of Inland and Resident Vertebrates of Bangladesh
Source: International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Bangladesh, 2000& 2015
Challenge : Alarming Animal Bio-diversity

▪ Ground Water Depletion
▪ Arsenic Contamination
▪ Industrial Effluent
▪ Flood Plain Connectivity and Degradation of Wetland Ecosystem
Other Challenges
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Challenges Related to Climate Change: Possible Sectoral Impacts
•increasingly frequent and severe tropical cyclones, with higher wind speeds and storm surges leading to
more damage in the coastal region;
•heavier and more erratic rainfall in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins, including Bangladesh, during
the monsoon season resulting in:
•higher river flows, causing over-topping and breaching of embankments and widespread flooding in
rural and urban areas as well as drainage congestion,
•river bank erosion resulting in loss of homes and agricultural land to the rivers;
•increased sedimentation in riverbeds leading to drainage congestion and water logging;
• lower and more erratic rainfall, resulting in increasing droughts, especially in drier northern and
western regions of the country;
•melting of the Himalayan glaciers, leading to higher river flows in the warmer months of the year, followed
by lower river flows and increased saline intrusion after the glaciers have shrunk or disappeared;
•sea level rise leading to submergence of low-lying coastal areas and saline water intrusion up coastal rivers
and into groundwater aquifers, reducing freshwater availability; damage to the Sundarbans mangrove forest,
a World Heritage site with rich biodiversity; and drainage congestion inside coastal polders, which will
adversely affect agriculture.
•warmer and more humid weather leading to increased prevalence of disease and infections.
The major challenges of climate change are:

Sector / Asset Climate Change Possible Consequences under BAU scenario
1. Agriculture Rise in temperature of 1°C–2°C in
combination with lower solar
radiation
about 17% decline in overall rice production and as high as 61%
decline in wheat production compared with the baseline; By
2050, a reduction in 4.5 million tonnes of rice output at the 2002
level of production.
Temperature increase of 4°C decrease in production by some 28% for rice and 68% for wheat;
decline in paddy production by 1.60% in 2050 and 5.05% in 2100;
negative impact on real GDP by 0.67% in 2050 and 0.93% in 2100
Salinity intrusion under moderate
SLR
about 0.2 million tonnes or more
2. Health
Temperature and precipitation
increase
By 2090 increase in Dengue cases by 24,000 with fatalities 314;
malaria cases by 440,000 and fatalities could reach over 2,500;
respiratory illnesses; and increasing health costs
Possible Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change

Sector / Asset Climate Change Possible Consequences under BAU scenario
3. Land 1 m sea level rise;
Increased precipitation
17-21% area loss (up to 30,000 km2 inundated; additional
16% land inundated due to increased rainfall (5,500 km2)
4. Infrastructure Floods; cyclones; sea level rise capital stock depletion in the construction sector by
0.05% annually until 2100; sectors closely related to
construction would experience larger falls in real GDP
5. Energy Cyclones, floods, dry periods Increased load shedding; increase in energy demand-
supply gap; fall of production; GDP losses in agriculture
and industry
6. Forest and other
ecosystems
Sea level rise; increase in
temperatures; salt water intrusion
40% mangrove loss; 96% decline in tiger habitat
7. GDP N/A By 2050, annual GDP losses are projected to be 2.0% per
annum
Possible Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change (Cont’d)

5. BDP 2100: Vision, Goals and Adaptive Approach
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▪ BDP 2100 is a
➢ long term and visionary plan covering the 21st Century
➢ Holistic and integrated Plan, considering many themes and sectors, individual strategies as
well as integrated ones for the whole country considering the needs of all water-related
sectors have been articulated in a single plan
➢ Techno- economic water centric plan, which covers both technical and economic issues (GDP
growth, Poverty Reduction, Employment, Food Security, Investment, etc.)
➢ Implementable plan having an investment programme upto year 2030 linked with financial
resources
▪ BDP 2100 has strongly focused on Climate Change issues and Adaptive Delta Management (ADM)
approach which is a paradigm shift in planning and managing projects.
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Principles and Features of BDP 2100

Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100: Analytical Framework and ToC
1. Baseline analysis: Challenges and Opportunities
• Overall: Climate Change related
•Environmental and Ecological related; and
•National & Trans-boundary water resources related
2. Setting the vision and goals
3. Scenario development
•Various plausible future scenarios based socio-economic, environmental and policy factors
•Six Hotspot wise scenarios
4. Strategy development
•Sectoral (Water resources, land, Agriculture, Inland water transport, Urban water based on Hotspots)
•Cross-cutting Issues (Flood, Fresh water etc.)
5. Investment plan:
•Macro-requirements, Hotspot wise, Cross cutting
•Project prioritization Criteria
•Financing Arrangements and Mechanisms
6. Implementation framework
•Delta Commission and Delta Fund
•Regional Water bodies
•M&E Framework including Data requirement issues
•Knowledge hub
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1 Background: Approved BDP2100
BDP2100 Delta Vision, Mission and 6 Delta Goals are as follows:
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Stand alone
ana
gement
Standalone
IWRM
Inter-Sectoral
Integrated Delta
Management
Inter-relations between
Projects
Adaptive Delta Management
Scenarios reflecting exogenous factors
Decision making process (including cost benefit analysis) becomes increasingly complex
Paradigm Shift in Planning Concept
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Short term
planning
2016 2100
1 2 3 4 5 6
2016 2100
1
Long term vision
(e.g. 100 years)
2
Back Casting
3
Subsequently work
with regular plans
Long Term Planning
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Figure: Time Frame of BDP 2100 Strategy
Strategies developed at 3 Levels:
Framework for Strategy Development
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Flood Risk Management
Fresh Water
▪ National Level Strategies
▪ Hotspot Level Strategies
▪ Strategies for Cross-cutting Issues

Investment and Implementation Plan
Formulation of Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
Monitoring & Evaluation of the BDP 2100
D
E
L
T
A
A
T
E
L
I
E
R
S
&
T
T
I
N
T
E
R
A
C
T
I
O
N
Current Policy
Situation
Sectoral status
Drivers & Problems
Integrated Analysis
Finalization of
Baseline Studies
Formulation of Delta
Vision
Development of
Assessment Framework
Scenario Development
Analysis of Strategies
Preferred Strategies
Governance
and Legal Framework
Institutional Development
& Capacity Building
Preparation of
Sectoral & Regional
Arrangements
Dissemination
Financial Mechanisms
ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
BASELINE STUDIES DELTA FRAMEWORK
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Adaptive Delta Management
▪ Accepts that the future is deeply uncertain
e.g., Climate change, Socio-economic development,
Urbanization, Vulnerability, Social norms and acceptance
▪ Instead of making a ‘best’ prediction and
developing a plan for that future,
ADM asks:
What could happen in the future, and what can we do now
to achieve our goals, regardless of how the future unfolds?
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Dealing with uncertainties is the key issue:
✓ ‘what to do and when to do it?’
✓ ‘not too much, not too little’
✓ ‘not too early, not too late’
Courtesy: Wil Thissen, TU Delft
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So many possibilities: Sea level rise
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--Uncertainties: Many Future Uncertainties
--Scenarios: Future uncertainties become explicit by developing scenarios
--Adaptive Planning: Planning Framework in which robustness and flexibility are key
components to cope with future uncertainties
--Adaptation Tipping Points: Point in time when policy objective is no longer met
--Adaptation Pathway: Transition between different strategies to move ATPs to the future
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Adaptive Planning: Summary
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46
Adaptive
Delta
Management:
Scenarios
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Water
Security
• Water
resources
manageme
nt
• Flood risk
manageme
nt
• Drought
risk
manageme
nt
• River
manageme
nt
• Disaster
risk
Food and
Nutrition
Security
• Crop
production
• Livestock
production
• Fisheries
production
• Secured
livelihood
Economic
Growth
• Integrated
transporta
tion
System
(road, river
and rail)
• Market
linkage
• Energy and
power
Environme
ntal
Sustainabil
ity
• Biodiversit
y
• Forestry
• Environme
nt
Pollution
• Water
pollution
Social
Developm
ent
• Poverty
reduction
• Gender
and
developme
nt
Institution
al
• Water
Manageme
nt
Organizati
ons
• Land
manageme
nt
• Knowledge
developme
nt and
sharing
Holistic Water Resources Management Approach
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6. BDP 2100 Strategies
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Strategies Sectors
National strategies: Flood Risk Management
Freshwater Management
Hotspots ❑ Barind & drought prone areas
❑ Coastal Zone
❑ River systems and estuaries
❑ Urban areas
❑ Haor and flash flood areas
❑ CHT
Thematic strategies ❑ Land and spatial planning management
❑ Agriculture
❑ Water Supply and Sanitation
❑ Transboundary water management
❑ IWT
❑ Blue economy
❑ Renewable energy
❑ Earthquake
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6.1 National Water Related Strategies
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National: Flood Risk Management Strategy
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51
National: FRM Pathways for Priority Economic Areas
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FRM Pathways for Coastal Areas
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Drought occurrence Map
National: Freshwater Strategy
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6.2 Strategies: Hotspot wise
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B. Strategies for Hotspots under BDP 2100
1. Coastal Zone (27, 738 sq. km)
Main Strategy: Combating storm surge and salinity intrusion through effective management of existing
polders, reclaiming new land in the coastal zone and conservation of the Sundarbans (6.017 sq. km)
Measures
▪ Revival of the regional rivers and channels and improvement of drainage in local rivers and canals
▪ Rationalization/strengthening of polders
▪ Accelerating the land accretion process in the Meghna estuary
▪ Improvement of the Sundarbans, afforestation of mangrove species, creation of green belt and
improvements of the islands
▪ Accelerating the afforestation in the newly accreted lands by mangrove
▪ Continuation of Tidal River management (TRM) activities in the coastal polders and introduction of
TRM in other polders preceded by appropriate feasibility study
Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 by Dr. Md.
Taibur Rahman 55

Strategies for Hotspots (Cont’d)
2. Barind and Drought Prone Areas (22,848 sq. km)
Main Strategy: Balancing supply and demand for sustainable and inclusive growth, minimising losses
due to floods and drainage congestion and ensuring water supply and sanitation
Measures
▪ Extension of irrigation using the surface water from the Padma and other regional rivers
▪ Appropriate regulations for ground water uses and regulating the ground water extraction, ground
water protecting zone
▪ Development of detailed basin management plan for Barind and Atrai basin
▪ Water retention for the dry season usage in the natural and artificial reservoirs (pond excavation,
through rubber dams, rain water harvesting, etc.)
▪ Gradual shifting of high water consuming rice crop to less water consuming high value crop.
▪ Establishment of sewage treatment plants in all district headquarters, including industrial effluent
treatment and waste management and supply of piped drinking water
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3. Haor and Flash Flood Areas (16,574 sq. km)
Main Strategy: Protect agriculture and vulnerable communities from floods, integrated water/land
resource management and management of sustainable ecosystem and biodiversity.
Measures
▪ Rationalize construction of submersible embankments and there maintenance
▪ Construct and elevate village platforms in the Haor areas using dredged soils/ sludge
▪ Expansion of minor irrigation using surface water and develop irrigation facilities using water
control structures
▪ Improvement of design and capacities of the FMDI structures
▪ Strictly abide by the natural wetland preservation regulations
▪ Encouraging fisheries and other agri-crops in place of exclusive rice cultivation
▪ Introduction of short duration crop varieties and mechanization in harvesting and post harvest
handling and development of marketing system
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Taibur Rahman
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4. Chattogram Hill Tracts (13,295 sq. km)
Main Strategy: Ensure water security and sustainable sanitation, maintain ecological balance, biodiversity
and values (assets) and development of multi-purpose resources management system for sustainable
growth
Measures
▪ Construction of multifunctional dykes, diversion of flow in erosion prone areas using groynes, dykes or
diversion.
▪ Protection of floodplains and towns from flash floods of Chengi, Karnafuli, Sangu, Matamhuri, Bakkhali
rivers and hilly streams using new embankments / water control infrastructure
▪ Supply of piped water from reservoirs and ensuring appropriate sewage and waste treatment
management
▪ Emphasis on integrated catchment area management and creating water reservoirs
▪ Preservation of hill ‘Charas’ (water falls, canals)and biodiversity conservation
▪ Removal of silt from Kaptai lake with proper feasibility study and survey of its fish resources
▪ Protecting natural forest resources from deforestation and increase the afforestation
▪ Conservation of environment and ecosystems and encourage the establishment of ecotourism in private
initiatives

5. River Systems and Estuaries (35,204 sq. km)
Main Strategy: Provide adequate room for the rivers and infrastructure to reduce flood risk, appropriate
sediment management and effective river and estuaries management in the newly accredited char areas
Measures
▪ Appropriate capital and maintenance dredging for the Padma, Mghna, Jamuna, Brahmaputra, Dharla, Arial Khan,
Gorai, Kushiyara, Monu and other important rivers
▪ Effective measures for the management of excess salinity in the rivers of Southern region during the dry season
▪ Combined river training and river bank protection works for river stabilization and channelization
▪ Maintenance of discharge and natural flow of rivers and estuaries by effective sediment management
▪ Dredging and removal of silt is based on detailed morphological and sedimentological study
▪ Effective measures for the development of the naturally accreted lands and reclamation of land in Meghna and other
estuaries
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6. Urban Areas (19,823 sq. km)
Main Strategy: Integrated and sustainable use of urban land and water resources, improved urban utility
services including water supply, sanitation, waste management, conserve and preserve urban wetlands and
ecosystems and promote their wise-use
Measures
▪ Appropriate action plan for removing water logging in urban areas
▪ Categorization of wastes into e-waste, hospital wastes and others and separate effective waste management
plans for each of them
▪ Improvement of the drainage and water reserve system using natural water bodies
▪ Recovery and protection of natural water reservoirs and canals
▪ Ensure water quality
▪ Strategic establishment of green (forestation) and blue (water bodies) spaces and networks in the urban areas
▪ Encourage involvement of private sector in waste management
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6.3 Strategies: Cross cutting
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1. Water Supply and Sanitation Strategy
Present Status
Water Supply
• Urban: 86%
• Rural : 70%
Sanitation
• Open
defecation: 5%
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2. Sustainable Land Use and Spatial Planning Strategues
• Develop specific guidelines for management of soil/sediment
management resultant from dredging or Balu-mahal
• Preserve/conserve agricultural land from floods or erosion to sustain
food grain production
• Prevention of salinity intrusion and desertification
• Management of newly accreted land in the Meghna Estuary
• Development of Land Information System (LIS)
• Development of Digital Land Resource Management System
• Improvement/formulation of new National Land Use Policy
• Reviewing and updating/enactment of Laws/Regulations relating to
Alluvion and Diluvion to improve efficiency of land administration of
accreting and reclaimed land
• Formulation of necessary laws and acts to form Land Zoning
• Ensure gender equitability for land ownership
• Formulation of Spatial Planning and Land Resource Management Act
• Enhance afforestation & plantation in coastal zone for stabilizing land
• Restoration and protection of soil health, erosion and land loss
• Integrated management of coastal water infrastructures to protect
land
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Agricultural land : 65%
Forest lands : 17%
Urban areas : 8%
Water & wetlands : 10%.
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3. Agriculture, Food Security and livelihood
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1. Livelihood protection in ecologically fragile areas: Climate smart livelihood in Chars,
coastal areas and CHT
2. Livelihood protection of vulnerable socio-economic groups (agro-related groups in allover
the country)
3. Monitoring of ecosystem and biodiversity changes and their impacts: Effect of salinity,
drought etc. on biodiversity
4. Lowering emissions from agricultural land (dev. Technology for Lowering CH4)
5. Devise longer term adaptation mechanism against impacts of climate change and
particularly of sea level rise on food security
Proposed measures :
• Implement climate smart agriculture, e.g. saline or drought tolerant, short
duration ) verities, mechanized harvesting (specially for Hoar and Flash Flood area
• Expand cropped area with saline tolerant varieties for coastal area;
• Investigate into enhancement of productivity of traditional floating
agriculture;
• Prevent SLR from affecting agricultural land by constructing heightened sea
dykes

6. Improved Delta Management including conjunctive use of surface and groundwater
Proposed measures:
• Augmentation of surface water for irrigation through development of water reservoirs, recharge
groundwater, and reduced use of groundwater.
• Use water saving technology for improving efficiency of water and install facilities to reduce
distribution losses. e.g. Drip irrigation, buried pipe irrigation etc. ( It is to mention that it takes 14 million litres
of irrigation water to produce 6 tonnes of Boro rice on one hectare of typical farmland in Bangladesh. In other words,
one needs 3,500 litres of water to produce a kg. of rice)
• Gradual shifting of high water consuming crops to low water volume high value crops specially in the
Barind and Drought Prone Areas.
• Reduce impact of saline water intrusion
in the south and enhance river water flow.
3. Future Policies Agriculture Policies and Measures (Cont’d)

•Establishment of zoning of the region on the basis of ecological attributes distribution of biological
resources and the land use patterns.
•Implementation of threatened species wild flora and fauna recovery programme.
• Establishment of wetland protected areas and assessment of degradation of wetlands ecological values
• Establishment of Sundarbans Research Centre for research, education, conservation, awareness,
networking, recreation, monitoring and evaluation.
• Strengthening local institutions for wetland and biodiversity management.
• Implementation of biodiversity enhancement and sustainable management programme.
• Identification of ecologically important area within the region to protect the biodiversity and mitigate
conflicts over resource exploitation and providing legal arrangement.
•Restoration and maintenance of the connectivity between the rivers, haors, beels and other wetlands to
ensure the environmental flow
Strategies
4. Environment

Proposed measures for ensuring sustainable fisheries management:
•Identification of new important breeding, spawning, nursery and grazing distribution of fish and other
aquatic fauna
•Development and conservation of mother fishes and their migration routes in Tanguar haor, Hakluki
haor, kawadighi haor, Chalan beel and other important rivers, beels and wetlands
•Introduction of fish passes in existing and new FCD/I projects
•Establish and maintain fish and wetland sanctuaries/protected areas which include ban on fishing in
certain eco-sensitive areas like the Sundarbans, parts of the Kaptai Lake, several sections of the Rriver
Halda, selected Beel and Haor areas and certain sections of the Bay of Bengal and certain section of Padma
and Meghna (Hilsha sanctuaries)
•Strengthening Fish Act implementation to conserve fish and fisheries resources.
5. Fisheries

•Assessment of potential threats to following sectors:
✓ fish spawning and growth of fish in the freshwater fisheries sector
✓ fish spawning and growth of fish in the Coastal Zone and brackish water sector
✓ marine fish sector
✓ shrimp sector.
Development of adaptive measures based on the identified sectoral threats.
• Introduction of Climate Smart Aquaculture Technology in which saline tolerant and drought smart
varieties/species will be introduced
•Continuation of further research and study
5. Fisheries (Cont’d)
Marine fisheries
• Procurement of modern survey vessels
• Capacity building in survey works (science and techniques)
• Regional collaboration (India, Myanmar)
• Assessment of stock and maximum sustainable yield (MSY)/total allowable catch (quota) must be determined
thorough assessments on a regular basis of hilsa and other commercially important marine fishes
• Introduction of Digital Marine Fisheries Resource Mapping (DMFRM) for the marine waters using digital
cartography of the marine fisheries resources which is an essential tool for efficient and sustainable harvesting
of the marine resources.
• Further initiatives to take up sea wide culture on commercial scale

Regional Cooperation Options
6. Trans-boundary Water Management Strategies
• Development of action plan keeping water usage of
upstream countries in consideration
• Selection of prospective sites for the construction of
embankments considering the water flow from
upstream and with understanding and cooperation
from upstream countries
• Multi-track water diplomacy has to be applied to prevent or
peacefully resolve conflicts
• Continuing efforts for signing of Treaty regarding the sharing
of water for the Teesta and all other transboundary rivers
• Demand based common river basin management schemes
have to be initiated
• Third party involvement (multilateral or bilateral
development partner or country) to resolve transboundary
water related issues
• Improved basin-wide flood forecasting
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7. Dynamizing Inland Water Transport Systems
• Regular river dredging for maintaining flows
• Capital and maintenance dredging of Padma, Meghna, Jamuna,
Brahmaputra, Dharla, Arial Khan, Kushiyara, Gorai, and Manu
• Regular dredging for Ghashiakhali and channels in Sundarbans
• Ensure efficient and equitable use of sand through the regular
shifting of the ‘Balu-mahal’ (sand quarry).
• BIWTA to coordinate with BWDB to provide optimal levels of
surface water for navigation
• Develop navigation network according to societal and economic
demands
• Develop, maintain & operate inland river ports, landing
ferry ghats and terminal facilities
• Contribute to dealing with trans-boundary water aspects by
developing mutual understanding and cooperation
• Development of riverine and maritime ports
• Initiatives for activating transboundary waterways
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A new ‘Development Space’ for Bangladesh
8. Blue Economy Strategies
Strategies:
• Quick completion of multidimensional survey of
marine resources
• Increase the number of sea going vessels and
modernization and capacity building of the sea
ports
• Increase both shallow and deep sea fishing
• Introduction of eco-tourism and private sector
initiatives in sea cruise
• Keeping the coasts and sea port pollution free
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9. Renewable Energy Strategies
72
• Develop long-term renewable energy policy as well as
strategies and formulate a master plan for 50-100 years
to harness the potential of renewable energy resources
in the country involving public and private sector
investments
• Promote research on the development of technology in
the field of renewable energy in universities and
research institutions as well as build capacity for its
application
• Enhance Green Growth through research and
development of renewable technologies including clean
development mechanism (CDM)
• Devise innovative financing packages for grant funding
and low interest financing to address affordability for
both grid and off-grid renewable energy projects.
• Target for at least 30% energy production from
renewable sources by 2041 in the context of being a
prosperous country
Wind Atlas Map of Bangladesh
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10. Earthquakes Strategies
73
Bangladesh and the north eastern part of India states have
long been one of the seismically active regions of the world,
and have experienced numerous large earthquakes during the
past 200 years
Strategies:
• Strengthen earthquake management and enhance the
capacity to cope with earthquakes;
• Design earthquake-proof structures including barrages,
regulators, sluices, embankments, cross-dams, roads,
bridges, buildings in conformity with the Bangladesh
National Building codes or any other approved
standards;
• Formulate a proper land use plan for building
construction in municipal areas;
• Conduct a detailed study on identification of faults and
epi-centres
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7. Financing Strategies and Investment Plan
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Sources of Finance/Sector for
Expenditure
FY2016 FY2020 FY2025 FY2031
Total Delta Investment Required 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.5
Total Public Investment Required 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5
Current Public Investment (Baseline) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Additional Public Investment -- 0.5 0.7 0.7
Maintenance Cost (Recurrent
Budget)
0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5
Private Investment Required 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5
Public and Private Sector Investment Requirements
Investment requirements for water resources management, climate change impact and environmental sustainability
(% of GDP)
▪ Out of the required 2.5% of GDP, only about 0.8% of GDP is currently allocated in the budget
▪ Although the overall budget size will increase by about 10% to reach 25% of GDP by FY2031 there will be
pressures for increased resource allocation in social sectors like education, health and social protection
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Embankment with road
▪ Toll revenues
▪ Highway/Corridor
development
Large-scale irrigation
▪ User fees
▪ Lease of irrigated land
Inland Water Transport
▪ Terminal charges
▪ Terminal area development
Dredging and/or land
reclamation
▪ Channel fees
▪ Sale of dredged materials
Water Supply and Sewerage
▪ User fees
▪ Structured as Design-Build-Finance-Operate-
Maintain (DBFOM)
▪ With Viability Gap Funding (PPP)
▪ Can amount to $429 million (BDT 34 billion)
across 7 projects in UA, BA and Cross-cutting
Hotspots
Potential areas of Private Finance
UA = Urban Areas
BA = Barind and Drought Prone Areas
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▪ An investment plan comprising of 80 projects (65 infrastructure projects and 15
knowledge/institutional capacity building projects) of different sectors and hotspots have been
identified for implementation up to the year 2030.
▪ An approximate amount of 37.526 billion USD (2,978.27 billion BDT) would be needed for the
implementation of these projects (2015 price)
▪ Sequencing of Projects are done using Adaptation Pathways
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BDP 2100 Investment Plan

4
Water Related Expenditures
Water
Resources
25% (5429.86)
Power
1% (162.06)
Irrigation
4% (908.42)
Transport/
Shipping
7% (1605.59)
Forestry
3%
(548.36)
Food
3% (707.01)
Fisheries
2% (533.36)
Rural
Development &
Rural
Institutions
9% (2014.94)
Physical
Planning, Water
Supply &
Housing
46% (10009.92)
Share of BDP 2100 related projects ADP Allocation 2020-2021 (BDT in crore)
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8. BDP 2100 Governance: Implementation Coordination,
Monitoring and Evaluation and Delta Knowledge Hub
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Delta Wing
➢ The GED would coordinate, guide, facilitate, update, macro-level monitoring and evaluation of the
implementation of BDP 2100.
➢ Supporting resource mobilization efforts for implementation of BDP 2100.
➢ Develop, operate and manage a knowledge portal (Delta Knowledge management)
➢ Acting as Secretariat of Delta Governance Council headed by HPM.
➢ Prepare report on the status of BDP 2100 implementation
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Delta Governance Council
• The ‘Delta Governance Council (DGC)’ (Appendix-1) is a small but high-level inter-ministerial
forum chaired by Hon’ble Prime Minister. DGC is a supervising and guiding entity and the
Planning Minister is the Vice-Chair. The DGC would function as a formal linkage for achieving
political commitments regarding BDP 2100, provide directions and makes decisions. It would
provide strategic advice and policy guidelines.
• The DGC is comprised of the Ministers of Finance, Water Resources, Environment, Forests and
Climate Change, Disaster Management and Relief, Agriculture, Land, Fisheries and Livestock,
Food and Shipping. The Member, GED will serve as the secretary to the DGC. This high-level
committee will provide overall coordination to the functioning of GED, will set policies and
priorities and provide decisions.
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Project/ Programme Selection Committee (PPSC)
• A second coordinating committee known as Project/ Programme Selection Committee (PPSC) will
be chaired by the Member GED and comprise of representatives of Planning, Finance, Water
Resources, Environment, Forests and Climate Change, Disaster Management and Relief,
Agriculture, Land, Fisheries and Livestock, Food and Shipping. Chief, GED will serve as Member
Secretary.
• The PPSC will be primarily responsible for selection of specific projects and programmes for the
Delta Plan.
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The below table illustrates a possible approach to the BDP 2100 DRF. This is done on the basis of
existing knowledge.
BDP 2100 Development Results Framework (DRF) (cont’d)
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Tbd= to be determined
Source: Basic base year data updated to 2016 using CEGIS 2015, CSIRO 2014, IWM 2015, BADC 2015
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Tbd= to be determined
Source: Basic base year data updated to 2016 using CEGIS 2015, CSIRO 2014, IWM 2015, BADC 2015
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9. Delta Decision Support Tool and Knowledge Management
www.bdp2100kp.gov.bd
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Overall Challenges and Way Forward for BDP 2100 Implementation
Coordination and cooperation among implementing agencies as well as cooperation with upper
riparian countries. The cooperation is crucial in the following areas namely, strong regional cooperation
for Trans-boundary water management issues:
• Basin wide water management and sharing approach for the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the
Meghna basin;
• Continuing efforts for signing of Treaty for sharing water of the Teesta and all other trans-
boundary rivers;
• Pursuing construction of the Padma Barrage in suitable location following basin wide Approach
through mutual cooperation;
• International cooperation on water uses and development in the next decades; realizing the
potentials of Blue Economy;
• Sensitization of Development Partners for mobilizing supports to the implementation of BDP 2100
Investment Plan;
• Governance and Capacity building of the relevant government organizations, acquiring knowledge
of international best practices and technology transfer;
• .
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Overall Challenges and Way Forward (cont’d)
• Coordination and cooperation among implementing ministries/agencies and Planning
Commission;
• Capacity development for long term planning, preparing/ Implementing projects based on
ADM
• Establishment of ‘Delta Wing’ in GED;
• Establishment of ‘Delta Fund’ and relevant essential institutional arrangements;
• Establishment of ‘Delta Knowledge Hub’ for hosting, updating and sharing of data/information
collected for and relevant to BDP 2100;
• Attracting the local and foreign investments and technical assistance in the field of water
resources management, tackling climate change impacts, and
• Presenting BDP 2100 to the private sector entities and also negotiations with them in order to
secure investments for the projects enlisted in the IP of BDP 2100.
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Acknowledgement
1. Prof. Dr. Shamsul Alam, Member (Senior Secretary), GED, Planning Commission
2. Prof. Dr. Jaap de Heer, Team Leader, BDP 2100 FP and SIBDP
3. Gias Uddin Ahmed Chowdhury, DTL, BDP 2100 & SIBDP
4. Mohd. Enamul Haque, Joint Secretary, Planning Commission
BDP 2100 by Dr. Md. Taibur Rahman

Thank You
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Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100

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