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Broadcast Asia Conference June 15 2010: Social Media
15-18 June 2010, Singapore The future of Broadcasting Social Media is redefining what Broadcasting really means. Majority of CEOs experience the New Economic Environment as distinctly different, more volatile, uncertain and complex. The future is highly uncertain and influenced by many factors. One thing is sure, the days of the media landscape as traditionally known are over, as the internet is becoming the dominant broadcasting platform and a large portion of the world population is sharing information via this Open Internet in a collaborative and two-way communication pattern. These trends are shaping the future media landscape.
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Broadcast Asia Conference June 15 2010: Social Media
- 1. 15-18 June 2010,Singapore The future of Broadcasting Social Media is redefining what Broadcasting really means Rob van den Dam Institute for Business Value © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 2. Majority of CEOs,including those of media and communications companies, experience the New Economic Environment as distinctly different. Face-to-face interviews with over 1,500 CEOs The New Economic Environment % 13% 18% 69% More volatile Deeper/faster cycles, 79% 30 Complexity more risk gap* More uncertain 60% 14% 21% 65% Less predictable 49% More complex 18% 22% 60% Multi-faceted, interconnected 26% 21% 53% Structurally different Sustained change Currently Expect high/very Feel prepared experiencing high level of for expected Not at all/ To a large/ high/very high complexity over 5 complexity To some extent to a limited extent very large extent level of complexity years 2 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 3. The future ishighly uncertain and influenced by factors as government policy, technology evolution, economy and industry dynamics Clash of Giants Generative Bazaar clash with OTT providers and OEMs? communication based on open access? industry co-orporation to cope with OTT/OEM? provided by (co-operative of) infrastructure vertical integrated / few players? owners on voluntary basis or under pressure from local governments? OTT players own networks / spectrum? for any provider, person or object? emerging market providers enter mature markets? level playing field for everyone? Expanding Market 2015 2015 Stagnant/Declining Market Survival Consolidation Concentrated Market Shake-out prolonged global/local economic downturn? Fragmented telco and media companies forced to reduced spending by consumers? disaggregate their assets? investor loss of confidence? industry fragmentation / many players? cash crisis? initiatives from government, municipalities, consolidation to survive? alternative providers? 3 http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/ibv-telco2015.html?cntxt=a1000065 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 4. One thing issure, the days of the media landscape as we knew it are over, the internet is becoming the dominant broadcasting platform.... The communications The and media Open landscape, where Internet is large becoming the organisations dominant were broadcasting controlling platform of our the channels and civilization messages is increasingly SHIFT IN slipping away COMMUNICATION CONTROL 4 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 5. ...and a largeportion of the world population is sharing information - be it news, opinion, thoughts, images or video - via this Open Internet Media has become VIRAL a mass of WIKI’s COLLABORATIVE conversations, BLOGS based on two-way BOOKMARKING FAST communication, not on traditional CONSUME one-way ON A LARGE SCALE information push models FORUMS CROWDSOURSING PRODUCE TWO-WAY SHIFT IN VIDEOSHARING COMMUNICATION PATTERN 5 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 6. These 2 trends- shift to the Open Internet and to collaborative communication - are shaping the future of the media landscape Collaborative Gated Communities Shared Social Space Defending the Traditional Competing with the New Communication Pattern n ctio dire t ke ar Traditional M Open and Free Broadcasting Terrestrial Telecom IPTV Broad providers casters operators Satellite Cable Broad One-to-One companies casters One-to-Many provider- Communication Environment Open controlled Internet 6 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 7. Traditional broadcasting hasbeen the domain of broadcasters and cable operators, but Telcos have entered the scene. Which of the following consumer/residential services do you believe are most critical for you to invest in over the next 5-10 years? Social media 43% IPTV/ Video on Demand 34% Intelligent lifestyle services 30% Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) 29% End-user, security, authentication 27% Mobile Payments 21% Content storage 20% Internet-basedCommunications 14% Location-based /availability Services 13% Face-to-Face Mobile TV/Video 9% 9% interviews with 3D Television /Video Unified messaging 7% Telecom Mobile B2C transactions 7% Executives Mobile e-Mail 5% (IBV 2009 Mobile / multi-player games/Virtual Worlds 5% Global Telecom Video telephony 4% Industry Survey) Voice conferencing 2% Video conferencing 2% 7 © 2010 IBM Corporation 2009 IBM Institute for Business Value Telecom Industry Survey N=61
- 8. However, only atiny proportion of Telcos expect IPTV to make significant contributions to their revenues over the next 5-10 years What do you believe will be the relative contributions of the following models/services to your revenues over the next 5 – 10 yrs? IPTV 4% 14% 10% Revenue 30% 27% 26% Contribution 33% 96% Above 10% 86% 90% 70% 73% 74% Below 10% 67% Source: 2009 IBM Institute for Business Value Telecom Industry Survey N=61 Traditional per Mixed tariff Tiered broadband Triple/Quad play Analytics to Internet IPTV minute voice bundles incl. 'all- based on speed / reduce churn, communications (subscriptions you-can-eat' quality improve cross/up- (e.g. VOIP, IM and advertising) sell Social Networks) Many Telcos see offering TV/video services mainly as a necessity to combat the trend of losing subscribers to cablecos which are increasingly offering triple-play bundles 8 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 9. The Open andFree model provides alternatives for linear television and IPTV at the expense of Traditional and IPTV providers Impact of Online Video Viewing on “Traditional” TV Viewing 50% US Respondents Segmented by Age 40% Watch slightly less TV 30% Watch significantly less TV 20% 10% 0% 18 - 21 21 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65+ New channel consumption is happening at the expense of traditional linear television, particularly for the younger demographics 9 © 2010 IBM Corporation Source: 2008 IBM Digital Consumer Survey. Total responses = 2800 across six countries: Australia, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US
- 10. The Open andFree model alters the equation for the Traditional and IPTV providers – Clashes will be unavoidable for distribution ........ Voice OTT providers as Hulu, BBC’s TELCO IPTV iPlayer and YouTube shift the distribution problem to the OTT Internet infrastructure owners provider Example: December 2007 launch of BBC’s iPlayer Infrastructure owners have options to cope with the capacity problem caused by resulted for ISP : increasing of OTT traffic, including: 72% more customers using over 250MB Filter or block the OTT-traffic 100% more customers using over 1 GB Could violate net-neutrality principles Adoption of clouds and content delivery additional cost for PlusNet: network (CDN) architecture to relieve the load over backbone and servers + 200% http://community.plus.net/blog/2008/02/08/iplayer-usage-effect-a-bandwidth-explosion/ 10 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 11. ........and for advertising All parties will fight for advertising relationships Google TV Google partners with Sony, Intel for Google TV Targeted Advertising Google, Yahoo! and the like have shown how to use search engines for profitable online advertising. Using advanced technologies to match content - whether it is a regular tv program or video from the Internet - , web browsing patterns and email behaviour will result in even more effective advertising Google CEO Eric Schmidt: “Google TV will bring both search and context to traditional television, with behavioral data to both. That would shift the $70 billion annual TV advertising market in favor of Google’s strengths. W’re getting into the game by tilting the playing field.” 11 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 12. Relying on subscriptionsand PPV models is unsustainable in a world where consumers do not expect to pay for all content Global Users interested in Online Video Ad-supported versus paid content online Add-Supported Consumer-Paid 90% 83% 80% 73% 69% 70% 70% 64% 62% 60% 50% 40% 38% 36% 31% 30% 30% 27% 20% 17% 10% 0% Australia Germany India Japan UK US Ultimately it all revolves around advertising relationships and the possibilities the Internet offers for more efficient targeting 12 Source: 2009 IBM Digital Consumer Survey. Total responses = 2800 across six countries: Australia, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 13. Many consumers willaccept advertising in exchange for relevancy and value Under what circumstances will you be willing Willingness to Provide Information to accept advertising? About Yourself 80% If message and content are 2008 2009 71% 62% relevant and personalised 60% 57% If offered a discount for voice 50% 48% 49% 48% 50% 64% 45% /text services in return 40% If offered free shopping 61% vouchers If offered free music or video 20% 46% downloads If it is entertaining, innovative 0% 39% or amusing Australia Japan UK US If it is embedded in content I 19% People will provide information about am already watching themselves, opportunity exists for more contextual marketing 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: 2008 and 2009 IBM Digital Consumer Survey. Total Source: IBM Institute for Business Value Global Telecom Consumer Survey, 2009; n=6753 responses = 2800 across six countries: Australia, Germany, India, 13 Japan, UK, US © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 14. The Gated Communitiesis still a “walled garden” approach – but one that facilitates collaboration services TV and Web 2.0 convergence Personal media – Bring internet Video to TV, create a new consumer experience management on TV – Use the « context » of TV (what I am/will be watching) either live or Family calendaring onDemand to integrate with Web2.0 services (forums/real-time messaging) Wheather Forecast SocialTV – Recommendation among consumers (Live or OnDemand) News headlines, watch/share – Communication among consumers My YouTube Playlist on TV Information / Entertainment / Communication YouTube top20 on TV – Bring personalized info in one click (wheather / traffic / news / stock) – Integrate voicemail and telephony on TV FlickR on TV Media Management and sharing My Personal channel – TV is the natural screen to view/share family photos and videos, family history could be managed like TV channels TV chat Commercial parties applications My photos on TV – Major brand TV presence = Direct access to loyalty card, promotions, etc. – House Appliance (domotic) = Health, Alarm systems Thematic Web2.0 on TV Community of developers, Pro-consumers Music streaming on TV 14 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 15. There are differentoptions for traditional providers to move to the Gated Communities space Open Community Community of developers, AppStore / Revenue Pro-consumers Sharing model Commercial parties Apps developed by applications, e.g. major partners but hosted brand TV presence by the Service Provider Applications developed & hosted by the Scope of technical/ Service Provider Partnering capabilities Service Provider applications as Media Management and Sharing, Social TV, TV Chat, Family calendaring, etc 15 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 16. IPTV providers areexperimenting with widgets but the question remains whether .............. Verizon Communications has developed TV-based widgets for Facebook, Twitter and other features in an attempt to make FiOS TV a more fully- integrated TV an online content experience. In addition, plans to add the ability to stream online videos from YouTube. It has also opened its widget platform application programming interface to outside developers, and its "Widget Bazaar " . 16 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 17. ......telecom operators areseen as the logical providers for consumers to turn to for online video and other entertainment content Question: Over the next 5 - 7 years, whom will you expect to go to for online video, music, games and other entertainment content? Select all that apply 80% 70% 68% 65% All ages 60% Under 25s 50% 42% 42% 40% 35% 30% 29% 29% 29% 30% 25% 23% 26% 20% 10% 0% Internet Pay TV (e.g. Telecom Social Device Content Information Cable) Provider Provider Networking Manufacturer aggregator Provider (e.g. Sites (e.g. Nokia) (e.g. Apple Google) iTunes) Source: IBM Institute for Business Value: Global Telecom Consumer Survey, 2009 17 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 18. Telcos are 2ndto 5th choice depending on age and country US NL Spain UK Sweden Germany Australia China India Internet Internet Internet Internet Internet Internet Internet Internet Internet Information Information Information Information Information Information Information Information Information Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Pay TV Pay TV Telecom Pay TV Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Pay TV Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Provider Social Telecom Pay TV Telecom Device Content Pay TV Pay TV Telecom Network Provider Provider Provider Provider aggregator Provider Provider Provider Sites Social Social Social Content Content Pay TV Pay TV Content Device Network Network Network aggregator aggregator Provider Provider aggregator Provider Sites Sites Sites Social Social Social Telecom Content Device Device Device Device Network Network Network Provider aggregator Provider Provider Provider Provider Sites Sites Sites Social Social Device Device Content Device Content Content Content Network Network Provider Provider aggregator Provider aggregator aggregator aggregator Sites Sites 18 © 2010 IBM Corporation Source: IBM Institute for Business Value: Global Telecom Consumer Survey, 2009
- 19. Shared Social Spaceis the domain of players as Facebook & YouTube - throughout the world, people are turning en masse to these sites Aug-04 Aug-06 May-10 1 Yahoo! Yahoo! Google 2 MSN MSN Facebook 3 Google Google Youtube 4 Microsoft MySpace Yahoo! 5 Passport Live Live Twitter was the 6 eBay eBay Blogger fastest-growing 7 Amazon Youtube MSN Web brand growing 8 Offeroptimizer Microsoft Twitter 1,928 % from June 9 Fastclick Amazon Wordpress 2008 to June 2009 10 Doubleclick Orkut MySpace 11 go Blogger Google UK 12 Alibaba Google UK Microsoft 13 CNN Passport Amazon 14 BBC BBC Bing 15 165.254.12.202 Craigslist eBay The largest Social 16 AOL Go LinkedIN Network in Asia is 17 Google UK CNN Flickr Qzone with over 18 Gator Alibaba Craiglist 300M active 19 eBay UK Megaupload Rapidshare members 20 Searchscout Imdb Livejasmin Social Media Sites Note 1. Ranking reflects top 20 English Language Web sites; the multilingual Wikipedia is not shown in this list 19 Note 2: The traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data, and is a combined measure of page views and users (reach). © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 20. With the “DigitalNatives” at the forefront of this shift, older audiences have followed the younger audiences to social networking sites Adoption of Social Networking Sites by Age US 2007 - 2009 100% 2007 85% 85% 2008 2009 80% 77% 74% 73% 68% 60% 56% 52% 50% 40% 31% 31% 24% 20% 0% 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 + Source: 2008 IBM Digital Consumer Survey. Total responses = 2800 across six countries: Australia, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US. IBM 2007 digital 20 © 2010 IBM Corporation consumer survey: Total responses = 2800 across five countries: Australia, Germany, Japan, UK, US
- 21. Because of thespeed in which social media enables communication, word of mouth now becomes world of mouth If Facebook were a country it would be the world’s fourth largest between the US and Indonesia > 1.5 million pieces of content (Web links, news stories, blog posts, etc.) are shared on Facebook daily Currently YouTube has more than 2 billion views per day There are over 200.000.000 blogs. 54% of bloggers post content of tweet daily Twitter has nearly 100 million users who send on average of 600 tweets per second People continue to spend more time on SN and blog sites than ever before , with total minutes increasing 82% year-over-year the average time per person increasing 67 % year-over-year 21 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 22. Social Media isredefining what broadcasting really means Citizen Haiti 2010 Journalism Iran 2009 Fligth 1549 2009 China Earthquake 2008 Fast and viral distribution on large scale 22 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 23. Subject to thisdisruptive force of changing human communication behaviour, the option of doing nothing is a luxury few can afford OLD MEDIA MINDSET + NEW MEDIA CONSUMER = DISINTERMEDIATION 23 © 2010 IBM Corporation
- 24. IBM Institute forBusiness Value for Telco and Media industries Rob van den Dam Global Telecom Industry Lead Visit the IBM Institute for Business Value IBM Institute for Business Value [email protected] (IBV) at: www.ibm.com/iibv/ Tel. +31 651 284594 24 © 2010 IBM Corporation