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![The Modelling Relation: Scientific Knowledge
Natural System Formal System
stimulus interpret precondition
entailment entailment
commute
Material Formal
cause cause
response interpret post-condition
Ontological Commitment: To be is to be the value of a variable [W. V. O. Quine]
BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U
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This document introduces the concept of projective analysis (PAN) and discusses its use in enterprise modeling. PAN elicits clients' models of their ecosystems and analyzes the sustainability of their strategies while illustrating risks. It is based on the idea that enterprises are sociotechnical systems composed of autonomous components that collaborate voluntarily. Modeling such systems requires accounting for their open nature and interactions with the environment. PAN models demand as arising from actors' self-models and anticipation of needs within their context of use. The technique aims to capture both predictable and emergent behaviors.
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- 1. BCS FACS /Central London Branch Subjects are not Objects Enterprise Modeling using Projective Analysis Bernie Cohen, CEng, FBCS, MIEE Hon Visiting Professor, City University [email protected] www.asymmetricdesign.com www.soi.city.ac.uk/~bernie BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U
- 2. Introduction The Modelling Relation from Science and Engineering via the Frame Problem, Pragmatics, Anticipatory and Sociotechnical Systems to Projective Analysis (PAN) elicitating clients' models of their ecosystems, analysing the sustainability of their strategy and illustrating the risks to which they are exposed. BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U
- 3. The Modelling Relation:Scientific Knowledge Natural System Formal System stimulus interpret precondition entailment entailment commute Material Formal cause cause response interpret post-condition Ontological Commitment: To be is to be the value of a variable [W. V. O. Quine] BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 3
- 4. The Modelling Relation:Engineering Engineered System FormalDesign Specification interpret Design engineers stimulus parameter identify as components component component just those closed observed behaviour model transfer function systems whose models commute calculate provide execute component component computationally model effective composition calculi. component component model response result Engineering disciplines interpret composition by composition by are characterised both by physical connections symbolic bindings their component models and by their collections of compositional operators. BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 4
- 5. Closed Systems and the Frame Problem* The Fram Problem e : in an OPEN SYSTEM, one cannot identify the set of all state components that are NOT altered by the occurrence of an event. Science and engineering make the simplifying assumption that the natural systems they observe are closed, that is, immune to disturbance from all stimuli that the operative model does not account for. This distinction between what is and what is not accounted for by the observer’s knowledge is the observer’s Cartesian cut: What you see is not what you get *first identified in McCarthy and Hayes, Some Philosophical Problems from the Standpoint of Artificial Intelligence, 1969 BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 5
- 6. Sociotechnical Systems Healthcare, military, government and, in fact, every enterprise currently of interest, are all sociotechnical systems. Every sociotechnical system is a System of Systems* (SoS) whose component systems are autonomous and collaborate with each other more or less voluntarily. Each component system must therefore be modelled as an open system in continuous interaction with its enclosing ecosystem. * see “Architecting Principles for Systems of Systems”, by Mark W. Maier, University of Alabama. http://www.infoed.com/Open/PAPERS/systems.htm BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 6
- 7. The Orchestrating User Hence, “emergent behaviour”: the actual composite behaviour of a SoS differs from the observer’s composition of its parts because its composition is not fully understood (e.g. feature interaction in telecoms etc.) This difference between those system behaviours that can be predicted by users independent of their use of it, and those that cannot, is the user’s Heisenberg cut: What you get depends on how you use it BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 7
- 8. Anticipatory System The clients for prerequisite composed services (the composite functionality circumstance delivered by an SoS) Actors are anticipatory systems* are actors. who derive their demands for services from their formulation of entailment themselves as context-of-use (e.g. as an enterprise) Final cause: for those services. in the system’s context-of-use, the situation entails the circumstance, Anticipative systems are complex because the user’s model of demand adaptive systems contains the counterfactual assertion: if the prerequisite circumstance * see Life Itself by Robert Rosen were not to pertain, then the situation would not occur. situation BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 8
- 9. The Modelling Relation:Pragmatics Experience Model of being driven Experienced prerequisite anticipation circumstance circumstance experience of entailment partial satisfaction Final cause Experienced anticipation demand situation situation modelling the organisation of demand BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 9
- 10. The Frame ProblemRevisited Understanding the client to be an anticipatory system, and given that anticipatory systems are open systems, then modelling the needs of the client also suffers from the Frame Problem. But the client’s modelling of her need in the form of an organisation of demand constitutes a pragmatics of use, which can be modelled. Although the client cannot know her needs directly, she can know them indirectly through her experience of their effects. This difference between what can and cannot be known directly by the client about her needs is the client’s ‘endo-exo’ cut What I want is never exactly what I ask for. BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 10
- 11. The Modelling Relation:SoS Design Model of being driven Formal Specification prerequisite Engineered System precondition circumstance Client’s Experience interpret anticipate Experienced stimulus orchestration circumstance (user's choice) as repertoire of compositional experience semantic domain entailment of supply-side approaches te partial demand-side mu ontology Direct Compose satisfaction ontology com entailment entailment interpret anticipate Experienced response satisfy? situation post-condition demand situation There is no universal ontology BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 11
- 12. Modeling socio-technical systems In order to model a client enterprise as a socio-technical system, it is necessary to situate the observer’s perspective: The Domain of behavior: Who is your client? i.e. in terms of what kinds of behavior is it defined? The What: What does your client do? i.e. what is the material nature of the work they do? The Who for Whom: Who are their customers? i.e. who is your client serving (and what are the economics of this) The How: What are the critical identity-defining characteristics of your client that makes them who they are? i.e. what are those aspects of how they are organized that are identity defining? The Why: what makes those identity-defining characteristics of the client of value within the larger ecosystem of which they are part, particularly in relation to their customers? i.e. what are the drivers in the larger ecosystem that makes what your client does of value. BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 12
- 13. Defining how theclient stratifies their relationship to demand Endo-Exo Cut domain of behavior HOW WHY Cartesian Cut identity formal cause final cause realization WHAT FOR WHOM material cause efficient cause supply demand Heisenberg Cut BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 13
- 14. Stratification and Asymmetries WHY 3rd asymmetry: the customer’s demand does not define the experience that the customer wants FOR WHOM 2nd asymmetry: the business model does not define the customer's solution. Economies of Scope HOW 1st asymmetry: the technology does not define the product. Economies of Scale WHAT BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 14
- 15. PAN (Projective ANalysis) Tools for Socio-technical Systems Engineering Visual PAN elicit graphical, relational representation of client’s enterprise model. Stratifier transform into stratified Boolean matrix Analyser compute projections of stratified matrix Cohesion trace paths through stratifed matrix Landscape generate 3D histograms of Boolean matrices considered as simplicial complexes Feed results back to client: classification, location and magnitude of risks quantifying value and competitive advantage of flexibility,agility, etc. BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 15
- 16. Projective Analysis (PAN)Workshops White Team: Black Team: What are the What are the contexts-of-use and key constituent performances customer situations that are generating that you need in order to construct the the demands that you are targeting, and output performances how will you synchronize the composite that go into your market channels? capabilities needed to satisfy them? Blue Team: Red Team: What are the critical technologies that How are you going to have to customise you have to be able to master and/or and orchestrate outputs source in creating your products to generate the composite capabilities (constituent performances)? you need to synchronize with the customer situations you are targeting? BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 16
- 17. Visual PAN a Visio-based graphical editor for recording the results of PAN workshops Layer: Structure- Trace Hierarchy Synchronisation Demand function Meta- know- design unit order problem how ontology digital digital demand and capability system order situation its process Stencil digital customer process situation event trace driver outcome Clients' models are elicited as binary relations, of restricted signature, between instances of these types identified by the clients. BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 17
- 18. Example: A DiabeticsClinic* *B. Cohen and P. Boxer, Why Critical Systems Need Help to Evolve, IEEE Computer May 2010 BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 18
- 19. Detail of DiabeticsClinic BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 19
- 20. 6-layer stratification Visual PAN outputs a text file containing every pair of typed objects in the graph. The Stratifier transforms this file into a stratified Boolean matrix. Synchronization Customer situations Customised Contexts-of-use Customisation outputs Engineering Composite Capabilities output performances Orchestration critical technologies Key constituent Construction Technology performances BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 20
- 21. Strategic Analysis The Analyser examines this relational structure and reports the occurrence of patterns symptomatic of the types of proposition that the supplier makes to its clients in response to their expressions of demand. An r-type proposition A c-type proposition BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 21
- 22. A K-type proposition A P-type proposition BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 22
- 23. Stakeholder and theValue Deficit The supplier as stakeholder The customer as stakeholder in the way they have defined in the way they have expressed their market, and in the way their demand, and in the way they expect to satisfy it they expect it to be satisfied The supplier defines the The value deficit customer situation in a way is the gap between the that serves its interests, customer’s expectations and has the control to and what is actually subordinate the demands supplied. of the customer situation The more variability and to that definition of change there is in the demand (in this case for a nature of demands, the K-type proposition) greater the scope for value deficits to appear BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 23
- 24. The Stratified Matrixfor the Diabetics Clinic 7 6 Value deficit 4 5 Alignment 2 3 complexity stakeholders alignment 6,7 WHY 1 4,5 FORWHOM 2,3 HOW 0,1 WHAT 0 BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 24
- 25. Landscapes Each sub-matrix may be considered as a Simplicial Complex* and represented as a 3-dimensional histogram that graphically illustrates the risks to which the system-of-system is exposed by inadequate communication among its components. These 'holes' threaten Patient the K-type proposition Orthotic Administration 'othotist-with-patient'. Clinic data data GP data Y: The number of data Z: The number of elements other platforms with synchronized this level of by the platform synchronization X: The separate data platforms within the healthcare system *R H Atkin, Q-Analysis, A Hard Language for the Soft Sciences, Futures, Vol 10, Issue 6, 1978 BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 25
- 26. -1 processes q 11 10 number of 13 12 Y: The 15 14 16 17 18 19 20 0 1 each output 3 2 generate 5 4 aligned to 7 6 that must be 9 8 unitorderconsultant unitorderpatient unitordergp_booking traceventwaiting_room BCS FACS, Feb 16 unitorderprimary_care_group unitorderdirectorate unitorderorthotics_dept traceventgp_diagnos is traceventc_diagnosis traceventc_waiting_list traceventorthotics_waiting_list traceventneeds_adjusting tracevento_referral traceventreadymade_footwear trac eventbespoke_footwear unitorderacute_trus t traceventrepair_and_adaptation traceventsurgical_outcome traceventpodiatry_outcome traceventphysio_outcome trac ev entphysio_waiting_list simplexes traceventpodiatry_waiting_list traceventrequest_for_stabilisation slice2-3_trans unitorderc omponents_biz traceventcomponents processes Diagnostic unitorderuk_agent trac eventi_stock traceventm_s tock The orthopaedic consultant, the ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U unitorderstoc k_product_supplier patient and the general practitioner unitorderbes poke_mfr traceventb_stock tracevento_goods_in X: The component outputs of the healthcare system traceventb_goods_in traceventimports traceventadjusted_stock unitorderpodiatry _dept unitorderphysiotherapy _dept process Orthotic treatment tracev entdirect_sale 26 23 12 1 n Orthosis Process Alignment Complexity other level of Z: The manufacture outputs alignment number of sharing this
- 27. Further Work Software Engineering:Transform current prototype software from VB (!) to Open Source under e.g. Eclipse. Graph Theory: Formalise and implement the graph-theoretic operators involved in the composition of graphs from different subjects, given the ontological mappings on which they agree. Algebra: Select an algebraic structure that adequately represents the composition and transformation of 'triply articulated'* (subject-oriented) models. Psychology: Investigate whether PAN models provide a suitable basis for reopening Freud's Project for a Scientific Psychology. * P. Boxer and B. Cohen, Modelling the Enterprise and its Actors as Triply-Articulated Anticipatory Systems, ICCS 2004 BCS FACS, Feb 16 ©2012 Prof. B. Cohen, City U 27