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Adapting to Climate Change: Risks & Opporunities in the Upper Delaware River Region
- 1. Cover inset photoscourtesy of DRBC Collection (top) and Dave Soete (bottom) Download the Plan at http://www.pinchot.org/doc/499
- 2. A Collaborative Effort The Common Waters Partnership (http://www.commonwatersfund.org/partners) - 40+ non-profit organizations and public agencies supporting sustainable communities and working landscapes in the Delaware River watershed, primarily upstream of Delaware Water Gap The Pinchot Institute for Conservation (www.pinchot.org) – facilitator and financial agent The Model Forest Policy Program Climate Solutions University (http://www.mfpp.org/) – Financial assistance, adaptation expertise, guidance, resources, plan review and research assistance
- 3. Geographic Focus Upper BasinCommon Waters Fund priority counties: • PA (Wayne, Pike & Monroe) • NY (Sullivan & Delaware) • NJ (Sussex & Warren
- 4. • Examine howa changing climate could affect forests, waters and communities of the Upper Delaware region, both now and in the future • Strategize ways to reduce risks and protect the region’s resources and people • Share findings with and hear feedback from communities in the Upper Delaware region. Climate Adaptation Planning Goals Source: www.nacl.org/weatherproject/ Source: Heron’s Eye CommunicationsSource: Nalat Phanit
- 5. • Some degreeof climate change is inevitable • Models suggest that negative effects will outweigh positive ones • Ability to prepare for and adapt to new conditions may be exceeded as rate of change increases Why Adaptation Planning is Important Source: Adapted from Dahlman 2013
- 6. Observed Regional ClimateTrends • Spring has advanced by approx. 4 days • Loss of snow pack/warmer winters • Dates of river and lake ice melt have advanced by 1 - 2 weeks • Less winter precipitation as snow / more as rain • Earlier peak stream flows Increasing average temperatures and precipitation across the region Source: NOAA
- 7. Observed Regional ClimateTrends • Extreme downpours happening more frequently • The biggest storms are getting bigger • Extreme storms are responsible for a larger percentage of annual precipitation • Longer intervening dry spells 1948-2011 Source: http://www.environmentamerica.org/reports/ame/when-it-rains-it-pours
- 8. Projected Regional ClimateTrends Year (Emissions Scenarios) Estimated Change in Avg. Temperature (°F) Estimated Avg. Temperature (°F) 2050 (B1) 4 51.5 2050 (A1B) 5 52.5 2050 (A2) 5 52.5 2080 (B1) 5 52.5 2080 (A1B) 6.5 54 2080 (A2) 7 54.5 Estimated Past Average Temperature (1951- 2006): 47.5°F Year (Emissions Scenarios) Estimated Change in Avg. Precipitation Estimated Avg. Precipitation 2050 (B1) 4% 44.2 2050 (A1B) 8% 45.9 2050 (A2) 12% 47.6 2080 (B1) 8% 45.9 2080 (A1B) 8% 45.9 2080 (A2) 16% 49.3 Past Average Precipitation (1951-2006): 42.5” Continued increases in temperature and precipitation Source: Climatewizard.org
- 9. Many Sectors Affectedby Climate Change Climate Changes •Temperature •Hydrology •Extreme Weather Economics Infrastructure damages Flood losses Tourism/recreation impacts Loss of ecosystem services Forests Forest health and productivity Invasive species Forest composition Water Supply Quality Competition for water Human Health Heat waves Infectious diseases Air quality Agriculture Crop yields Water demands Insects & weeds
- 10. Source: NPS DWGNRA •Predominantly rural • Approx. 75% forested on average • Healthy protected lands acreages Current Conditions & Trends Land Cover 2010% Agricultural 9.69% Barren 0.10% Coniferous Forest 0.10% Deciduous Forest 71.33% Developed 7.17% Grassland 0.60% Mixed Forest 3.49% Open Water 2.46% Riparian 3.10% Wetland 1.97%
- 11. • Upper watershed4500 sq. mi of 13,500+ total basin • 2 Scenic Rivers segments • Ecologically intact • Supports diverse aquatic & terrestrial species • Overall excellent water quality • Water Supply for some 16 million Current Conditions & Trends Healthy Forests = Clean Water
- 12. Some indicators oflong-term forest unsustainability: • Even-aged • Maturing, dominated by larger, sawtimber-sized trees • Uniform in structure & lacking in diversity • Privately owned with aging demographic Current Conditions & Trends Source: NY DEC (top), Pinchot Institute (bottom)
- 13. • Fragmentation/Parcelization • Conversionto non-forest uses • Invasive plants, insects & diseases • Poor regeneration • High deer densities • Unsustainable harvesting practices Other Existing Forest Stressors Source: Pike Co. Conservation District Source: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning Source: PADCNR
- 14. • Proximity toMajor Metro Areas • Population Growth • Land Use Changes • Increased impervious cover • Forest fragmentation • Water quality impacts • Inconsistent land use standards across 3 states, 8 counties, hundreds of municipalities Existing Non-Climate Water Stressors Source: Jantz and Morlock % Change in Population of Upper Delaware Counties 2000-2010 County % Change Sussex County NJ 3.34 Warren County NJ 6.11 Delaware County NY -0.16 Sullivan County NY 4.34 Monroe County PA 22.45 Pike County PA 23.90 Wayne County PA 10.69 Source: NPS DWGNRA
- 15. • Floodplain development •Inadequate stormwater management • Aging infrastructure Existing Non-Climate Water Stressors Source: USACE Livingston Manner, NY Interim Feasibility Report Source: WBRE TVSource: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning
- 16. • Flow management& competing demands – Approx. 50% of Delaware River’s headwaters diverted out of watershed to NYC water supply – Associated withdrawals/releases disrupt natural flow regimes Existing Non-Climate Water Stressors Source: DRBC
- 17. • Changes intree species composition Spruce-fir Maple-birch-beech Oak-hickory • Associated shifts in bird & wildlife habitat, migratory corridors, breeding areas Climate Risks to Forests Current Projected - Low Projected - High Source: USDA Forest Service PNW-GTR-870
- 18. Climate Risks toForests • Increased frequency and severity of disturbances • Insect outbreaks • Pathogens • Invasive species • Higher deer populations • Longer fire season • Extreme weather Source: Grey Towers NHS Source: US Forest Service
- 19. • SW runoff,nutrient & sediment loads from extreme precipitation events • Streambank erosion, changes in channel morphology, habitat degradation Climate Risks to Water Resources Source: Pike Co. Conservation District Source: Pike Co. Conservation DistrictSource: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning
- 20. • Seasonal drought •Accelerated algae growth • Increased evaporation from reservoirs • Sea level rise and salt intrusion downriver • More competition for less water Climate Risks to Water Resources Source: NY DEC
- 21. • Stream flowfluctuations • Thermal stress to fish • Declines in cold water fish and other sensitive species Climate Risks to Water Resources Looking Ahead: Potential Loss of Stream Habitat for Trout & Salmon due to Climate Change (2050-2100) Source: EPA
- 22. • Carbon Sequestration •Clean Air • Stormwater/Flood Control • Clean Water • Erosion/Sediment Control • Water Temperature Moderation • Recreation • Fish/Wildlife Habitat Benefits Loss of Valuable Ecosystem Services 0.42 0.94 2.80 4.19 0 1 2 3 4 5 Marcellus Shale Gas Recreation/Water Quality Drinking Water Supply Forests $billion/year Annual Economic Value of Resources Upper Delaware River Basin Source: Kaufman, unpublished manuscript With Basin-Wide Implications
- 23. • Flood losses,property damages • Municipal budget impacts • Infrastructure damages – Roads/culverts/bridges – Dams Economic Implications Source: USACE Source: WBRE TV
- 24. • Flow andwater quality related impacts on tourism and recreation • Weather-related power disruptions • Small Business Losses (Reynolds, 2013) • Median cost of downtime from an extreme weather event is estimated at $3000 per day • Est. 40% of small businesses experiencing long-term power outages from extreme weather close permanently due to losses Economic Implications Source: FUDR Source: Kittatinny Canoes Source: Pike Co. Office of Community Planning
- 25. Economic Implications Agricultural Losses •Direct crop damages • Delayed planting or harvest • Reduced milk production or crop yields • Increased water demands • More weeds and insects
- 26.
- 27. • Promote dialogueand information exchange about climate risks • Maintain forest cover through land use & taxation policies that support forest conservation • Provide landowner $$ and technical support to promote forest health • Manage deer & invasives through cooperative efforts • Implement strategic voluntary easement/land acquisition programs Strategies for Reducing Forest & Water Climate Risks Source: Dave Soete
- 28. • Enhance localstakeholder representation in flow management policy-making • Update floodplain management, riparian buffer and stormwater management standards • Improve infrastructure to accommodate changing precipitation patterns • Engage downstream water users who benefit from upstream forests and waters to invest in the Upper Basin Strategies for Reducing Forest & Water Climate Risks Source: DRBC
- 29. • A trulydiverse and remarkable ecosystem • At risk but the focus of many notable conservation efforts Source: NPS UDSRR Contact: Susan Beecher The Pinchot Institute for Conservation [email protected] The Upper Delaware Region Download the Plan at http://www.pinchot.org/doc/499
Editor's Notes
- #6 Caption: Left - Naturally occurring greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)—normally trap some of the sun’s heat, keeping the planet from freezing. Right - Human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, are increasing greenhouse gas levels, leading to an enhanced greenhouse effect. The result is global warming and unprecedented rates of climate change. National Park Service http://www.nps.gov/goga/naturescience/climate-change-causes.htm Contributor: Will Elder
- #7 Since 1970 the Northeast has been warming at a rate of nearly 0.5F. per decade. Winter temperatures have risen even faster, at a rate of 1.3F per decade from 1970 to 2000 (Confronting Climate Change, pg.9)
- #8 In the Northeast: - Variability and intensity of weather are expected to increase with more precipitation during large events with longer intervening dry spells, more frequent and severe extreme events, including hurricanes, winter rain, snow, ice storms, droughts, and heat eaves (Climate Variability, pg.231)
- #9 INTERPRETATION: in the 2050 scenarios, there’s hardly a difference between the estimated change in mean temperature, therefore, no matter what we do to the emissions, we will still see around 4 to 5 degree F increase from the mean temperature, which translates to around 49-55 degree F mean temperature In the Yr 2080,B1 scenario, the estimated change in mean temperature and the estimated mean temperature is the same as Yr 2050, A1B and A2. Therefore, for significant changes in the late century, all emissions must stop (which is impossible) Source: Climatewizard.org