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bp 4Q 2020 financial results
bp reported its fourth quarter and full year 2020 financial results. Key points include: - Underlying replacement cost loss of $100 million for Q4 2020 and $5.7 billion for full year 2020. - Net debt of $38.9 billion as of December 31, 2020, down from $51.4 billion a year earlier. - Capital expenditure was reduced by around 40% in 2020 compared to 2019 and is expected to be around $13 billion in 2021. - Cash costs were reduced by 12% in 2020 and further reductions are expected through 2023.
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bp 4Q 2020 financial results
- 1. bp fourth quarterand full year 2020 financial results presentation
- 2. Craig Marshall svp investorrelations
- 3. 3 Secret Cautionary statement Forward-looking statements- cautionary statement In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement: The discussion in this results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified by the use of words such as ‘will’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected to’, ‘aims’, ‘should’, ‘may’, ‘objective’, ‘is likely to’, ‘intends’, ‘believes’, ‘anticipates’, ‘plans’, ‘we see’, ‘focus on’ or similar expressions. In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: expectations regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, including the impacts of the pandemic on volume, margin and Downstream performance; expectations with respect to the recovery of around $900 million of COVID-19 impacts on convenience and mobility EBITDA; expectations regarding the macro environment, including outlook for oil and gas prices and demand, and future refining margins; plans and expectations regarding the divestment programme, including the amount and timing of proceeds in 2021, and plans and expectations in respect of reaching $25 billion of proceeds by 2025 and delivering divestments of around 600kboed by 2025; plans and expectations regarding net debt, including deleveraging to $35 billion; expectations regarding operating cash flow, EBITDA growth, cash costs, capital expenditure (including expected capital expenditure of around $13 billion in 2021), Upstream reported production, capital employed in the Energy Transition and Low Carbon, ROACE and EBIDA per share; plans and expectations with respect to dividends, distributions and share buybacks, including the intention of maintaining a fixed dividend of 5.25 cents per ordinary share per quarter and achieving aggregate per share distributions equivalent to over 10 cents per quarter across 2021 through 2025; expectations with respect to the timing of cash outflows, including the timing of severance payments associated with the reinvent programme, annual GOM oil spill payment, and payments in connection with the completion of the offshore wind JV with Equinor; plans and expectations that Lightsource bp projects will deliver returns in the range of 8-10%; expectations to invest over $2 billion in low carbon and grow capital employed in transition and low carbon to over 20% of group by 2025, to invest around $2 billion in convenience and mobility and to invest around $9 billion into oil and gas operations; plans and expectations of achieving a pre-tax savings run-rate of $2.5 billion relative to 2019 during 2021 and achieving $3-4 billion in pre-tax cost savings by 2023; plans and expectations related to bp’s carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, including Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions; plans and expectations to deliver on bp’s development pipeline of 11GW; plans and expectations regarding bp’s hydrocarbons business, including reaching and maintaining a production cost target of $6/barrel; expectations regarding Upstream reported production in full-year 2021 and through 2025; expectations regarding Downstream refining margins, utilization, marketing volumes and product demand; plans and expectations regarding timing, margin, unit cost, capacity and financial and operating performance of Upstream and Downstream projects scheduled to start up in 2021 (including the commissioning of Raven) and 2022 (including Mad Dog Phase 2, Tangguh Expansion and Cassia Compression); plans and expectations regarding the ramp-up of projects delivered in 2020 (including Ghazeer and Raven) and ongoing conversion of the Kwinana refinery; plans and expectations to reach 900kboed from major projects and to sustain that level of production until at least 2025; plans and expectations regarding joint ventures and other agreements, including bp’s Indian fuels and mobility JV with Reliance, bp’s partnership with Equinor to develop offshore wind opportunities in the US (including developing 4.4GW of offshore wind power plans as part of such partnership), and bp’s partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Qantas and the cities of Aberdeen and Houston; expectations with respect to completion of transactions of agreed disposals; plans and expectations related to potential future transactions; expectations regarding the roll out of bp and JV-operated electric vehicle charging points, including plans to grow the number of electric vehicle charging points to over 10,000; plans and expectations regarding bp’s convenience and mobility business, including plans to nearly double EBITDA from 2019 to 2030 with ROACE of 15-20%, grow to 5,500 retail sites in India by 2025, expand the Castrol workshop network, expand bp’s network of strategic convenience sites by around 10%, and increase the convenience gross margin by 6% and related share of margin from convenience and electrification; and plans and expectations with respect to the implementation and impact of bp’s strategic reinvention and redesign of its organization, including the ongoing reduction of approximately 10,000 jobs, and the amount and timing of associated costs. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the volatility of oil prices, the impact of COVID-19, overall global economic and business conditions impacting our business and demand for our products as well as the specific factors identified in the discussions accompanying such forward-looking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America; OPEC quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; delays in the processes for resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors, subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; our access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on our reputation of ethical misconduct and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses; major uninsured losses; decisions by Rosneft’s management and board of directors; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report, as well those factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in our results announcement for the period ended 30 June 2020 and under “Risk factors” in bp Annual Report and Form 20-F 2019 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations to GAAP - This presentation also contains financial information which is not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). A quantitative reconciliation of this information to the most directly comparable financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP can be found on our website at www.bp.com. Tables and projections in this presentation are bp projections unless otherwise stated. February 2021
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- 5. 5 Secret From IOC toIEC – a year in review The world will electrify, renewables a clear winner Customers will redefine mobility and convenience Oil and gas challenged; but will remain part of the energy mix for decades Energy systems will become increasingly multi-technology, integrated and local Bespoke energy solutions for customers Driving digital and innovation Strategy Resilient and focused hydrocarbons Convenience and mobility Low carbon electricity and energy Integrating energy systems, partnering with countries, cities and industries and driving digital and innovation Reimagining energy for people and our planet Become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner and help the world get to net zero; supported by 10 aims Purpose, ambition, aims Core beliefs
- 6. underlying operating cash flow1 2020– responding to a challenging environment Continued focus on safety and emissions reductions underlying replacement cost loss cash cost reduction3 lower capital expenditure2 divestment and other proceeds (1) Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments (2) 2020 vs 2019, organic and inorganic (3) 2020 vs 2019 (4) At 31/12/2020 net debt4
- 7. 2020 – performingwhile transforming strong operational and strategic delivery Lightsource bp growing solar pipeline in the US and Europe Strategic partnerships with cities, corporates & industries Partnership to develop offshore CCUS infrastructure Resilient and focused hydrocarbons Convenience and mobility Low carbon electricity and energy bp and Equinor strategic US offshore wind partnership Renewable hydrogen partnership with Ørsted More than doubled retail sites in growth markets to ~2,700 Added ~300 strategic convenience sites to now total >1,900 Jio-bp JV completed and operational Record convenience gross margin of $1.3bn, 6% growth vs 2019 Growing total EV charging points to >10,000 Ultra-fast charger roll- out in UK and Germany 4 major project start-ups ~20% reduction in Upstream capex ~7% unit production cost reduction Alaska and petrochemicals divestment & Kwinana refinery conversion 96% 94% plant reliability2 refining availability1 (1) bp-operated refining availability (2) bp-operated Upstream plant reliability Completion of Southern Gas Corridor 1,400 EV charging points rolled out with DiDi JV in China
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- 9. 9 Secret Environment (1) Source: Platts (2)Refining Marker Margin (RMM) based on bp’s portfolio (3) First of the month index All data 1 January 2020 to 27 January 2021 Commodity prices $/bbl / $/mmBtu 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 0 20 40 60 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RMM / Henry Hub Brent1 RMM2 4Q 2020 vs 3Q 2020 ▪ Average Brent price $44/bbl 3% higher ▪ bp’s average RMM2 $5.90/bbl 5% lower ▪ Henry Hub price3 $2.70/mmBtu ~35% higher Brent Henry Hub1
- 10. 10 Secret 4Q 2020 vs3Q 2020 ▪ Lower marketing performance with volumes under pressure due to COVID-19 ▪ Significantly lower gas marketing and trading contribution ▪ Higher Rosneft contribution $bn 4Q19 3Q20 4Q20 Underlying replacement cost profit 2.6 0.1 0.1 Underlying operating cash flow 1 7.6 5.3 2.4 Underlying RCPBIT2 Upstream 2.7 0.9 0.7 Downstream 1.4 0.6 0.1 Rosneft 3 0.4 (0.2) 0.3 Other businesses and corporate (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) Underlying earnings per share (cents) 12.7 0.4 0.6 Dividend paid per share (cents) 10.25 5.25 5.25 Dividend declared per share (cents) 10.50 5.25 5.25 4Q 2020 underlying results summary (1) Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments (2) Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects (3) bp estimate of Rosneft earnings after interest, tax and minority interest
- 11. 11 Secret ▪ Cash inflow5of $1.3bn ▪ $4.2bn disposal proceeds1 ▪ Net debt falls to $38.9bn Cash flow and balance sheet 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 2020 cash inflows/outflows $bn (1) Divestments and other proceeds (2) Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments (3) Lease liability payments (4) Cash dividends paid (5) Underlying operating cash2 flow plus divestment and other proceeds less Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments, dividend payments, capex, lease payments and share buybacks Underlying operating cash flow2 Organic capex Dividends4 Disposals1 Gulf of Mexico oil spill Share buybacks Lease payments3 Working capital build 4Q 2020 highlights Inorganic capex
- 12. 12 Secret A coherent approachto capital allocation with a clear set of priorities for the uses of cash A resilient balance sheet with a strong investment grade credit rating A disciplined approach to investment with clear criteria and a rigorous process A resilient financial frame and business plan Deleverage to $35bn Maintain strong investment grade rating $13-15bn until net debt <$35bn $14-16bn thereafter Includes inorganics Resilient dividend Deleverage Invest in transition Invest in resilient hydrocarbons Commitment to buyback ≥60% surplus Strong growth in EBIDA¹ per share² 7-9% CAGR³ Strong and improving ROACE⁴ 12-14%⁵ Investing at scale in the energy transition >20% capital employed⁵ (1) EBIDA: underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating items), less taxation on an underlying replacement cost basis (2) Buyback modelled across a range of share prices; EBIDA after impact of planned divestments (3) CAGR: compound annual growth rate, 2H19/1H20 to 2025; $50-60/bbl (2020, real) (4) ROACE: return on average capital employed as defined in bp’s 2019 annual report; $50-60/bbl (2020, real) (5) By 2025 Firm principles and priorities Business plan
- 13. 13 Secret 0 20 40 60 80 100 2014 2018 20192020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 10 15 20 25 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Delivering a disciplined approach to expenditure ▪ Expect ~$13bn capex in 2021 including inorganics ▪ Investment in future growth in low carbon electricity & energy and convenience & mobility (1) Organic and inorganic cash capital expenditure excluding acquisition of US onshore assets from BHP (2) Relative to 2019 ~40% reduction ~40% reduction ▪ Cash cost reduction of 12% in 20202 ▪ Expect to deliver $2.5bn pre-tax cash cost savings before end-20212 ▪ $3-4bn of pre-tax cash cost savings from reinvent programme expected by 20232 Total cash costs indexed Cash capex1 $bn
- 14. 14 Secret 0 10 20 30 40 50 4Q19 1Q20 2Q203Q20 4Q20 2021 2022 0 20 40 60 40 50 60 70 (1) Forecast net debt at $45-50/bbl Brent (2020 real) and bp planning assumptions (2) Dividend per ordinary share per quarter, intended to remain fixed at this level, subject to board discretion each quarter (3) Surplus refers to surplus of sources of cash including operating cash flow, JV loan repayments and divestment proceeds, over uses, including leases, Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments, hybrid servicing costs, dividend payments and cash capital expenditure (4) Per share distributions: dividend per share plus total buyback expenditure divided by projected share count (5) 2021-25 average, at reference oil price and bp planning assumptions Net debt¹ $bn ▪ Net debt reduced to $38.9bn at end-2020 ▪ Expect $4-6bn divestment and other proceeds in 2021 ▪ Expect to reach net debt target of $35bn around 4Q21– 1Q22 with oil price in the range of $45-50/bbl1 Deleveraging supports committed distributions Brent $/bbl Per share4 distributions5 c/sh Buybacks Dividend ▪ Resilient dividend intended to stay fixed at 5.25 cents per share per quarter2 ▪ Commitment to return at least 60% of surplus3 cash flow via buybacks once net debt target is achieved
- 15. 15 Secret Upstream reported production (ex.Rosneft) 2.6mboed 2.4mboed lower than 2020 slightly higher underlying basis ~2.0 mboed Capital expenditure $19.4bn $15.2bn ex. inorganic $14.1bn $12bn ex. inorganic ~$13bn $14-16bn Cash cost saving (vs 2019) N/A 12% reduction $2.5bn before end-2021 $3-4bn in 2023 from reinvent bp1 Divestment and other proceeds $2.8bn $6.6bn inc. $4.8bn in 2H20 $4-6bn $25bn 2H20-2025 Net debt $45.4bn $38.9bn $35bn around 4Q21-1Q22 at $45-50/bbl2 maintain a strong investment grade credit rating ROACE3 8.9% (3.8%) 12-14% by 20254 EBIDA per share5 156¢ 95¢ 7-9% CAGR by 20254 vs 2H19-1H20 Distributions 41¢/share 31.5 ¢/share 5.25¢/sh per quarter6 plus share buyback policy Medium term financial frame (1) Relative to 2019 (2) At bp planning assumptions (3) ROACE: return on average capital employed as defined in bp’s 2019 annual report (4) $50-60/bbl (2020 real), at bp planning assumptions (5) EBIDA: underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written- off (net of non-operating items), less taxation on an underlying replacement cost basis (6) Dividend per ordinary share per quarter, intended to remain fixed at this level, subject to board discretion each quarter
- 16. Translating strategic themesto our new reporting structure Oil production & operations Customers & products Gas & low carbon energy Other business & corporate Resilient and focused hydrocarbons¹ Convenience and mobility Low carbon electricity and energy Integrators • Fuels (developed markets) • Fuels (growth markets) • Castrol • Convenience • Electrification • Future mobility solutions • Integrated gas & power • Low carbon electricity • Bio-energy • CCUS • Hydrogen • Trading (gas) • Trading (low carbon) • Oil production • Refining • Gas production including innovation & engineering • Regions cities & solutions • Digital adjacencies - Ventures - Launchpad • Corporate & functions (1) Rosneft will continue to be reported separately • Trading (oil)
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- 18. 18 2H19-1H20 $51 Margin / mix Cost synergies Price Refining2025 Underlying Portfolio $51/bbl (1) EBITDA: underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating items), excluding trading. 2025 at $50/bbl Brent (2020, real) and $3.00/mmBtu Henry Hub (2020, real), RMM $12/bbl (2020, real) (2) 2025 reflects planned divestments Oil and gas production unit EBITDA1,2% 2H19-1H20 at 2025 prices 2025 <$15/boe $15-30/boe >$30/boe Oil, gas and refining EBITDA1 $bn 20% unit margin expansion Planned divestments 2.6mmboed ~2.0mmboed Completed divestments Resilient and focused hydrocarbons growing EBITDA from a high-graded, higher margin portfolio Oil and gas production
- 19. 19 Secret Customer touchpoints per day (million) >20 >10>15 bp retail sites in growth markets2 >8,000 1,270 7,000 Margin share from convenience and electrification3 (%) ~50 ~25 ~35 EV charge points2 >70,000 >7,500 >25,000 Castrol revenues ($bn) >8.0 >6.5 ~7.5 Strategic convenience sites2 >3,000 >1,600 >2,300 Convenience and mobility customer focused growth Capital expenditure ($bn) 1.5 2.0 - 2.5 11.5 2,700 27.6 10,100 5.4 1,900 2.2 EBITDA1 growth $bn (1) EBITDA: underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortization and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating items), excluding trading, at bp planning assumptions (2) 2020 reported to nearest 100 (3) As a ratio of total consumer energy (retail fuels and electrification) and convenience margin (excludes equity accounted entities) Advancing growth markets Redefining convenience COVID recovery Next-gen mobility 2025 2020 Portfolio/ optimisation
- 20. 20 Low carbon electricityand energy building scale and capability with capital discipline and a returns focus 80% 20% Solar Offshore wind 11GW net Developed1 and pipeline GW bp net Hopper3 bp net 30 projects developed to FID with Lightsource bp with weighted average expected IRR of 8-10% Pipeline2 by technology 3.1 3.3 14.1 6.3 0.8 3.7 0.1 Developed by 3Q20 Developed by end-2020 Americas Asia Pacific Europe Other Developed + pipeline > GW active projects > GW declined opportunities in 4Q20 (1) Developed to FID (2) Renewable pipeline includes projects that have achieved pre-set milestone criteria (3) Renewable hopper comprises of project opportunities from the point of initial evaluation until they are either stopped or become part of the renewable pipeline 1
- 21. 21 Adding value throughpartnerships and integration ▪ Zaragoza province, Spain ▪ 247MW across 5 solar plants ▪ >480 GWh per year enough to power ~50,000 homes ▪ Structured financing ▪ De-risked by PPA ▪ Leveraging bp’s trading capabilities ▪ Recent acquisition of 1GW pipeline provides growth opportunity Strategic partnership Clean energy ▪ Lightsource bp − Sourcing − Developing − Constructing ▪ bp − De-risking offtake Amplifying value Growing portfolio
- 22. 22 Secret Our investor proposition (1)Dividend per ordinary share per quarter, intended to remain fixed at this level, subject to board discretion each quarter (2) At least 60% of surplus cash as buyback after having reached $35bn net debt and subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (3) EBIDA: underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax, add back depreciation, depletion and amortisation and exploration expenditure written-off (net of non-operating items), less taxation on an underlying RC basis (4) 2H19/1H20-2025, $50-60/bbl Brent (2020 real), at bp planning assumptions (5) ROACE: return on average capital employed as defined in bp’s 2019 annual report, by 2025, $50-60/bbl (2020 real), at bp planning assumptions (6) By 2025 Profitable growth Committed distributions Sustainable value Resilient dividend of 5.25 cents per share per quarter¹ ≥60% surplus cash as share buybacks² 7-9% EBIDA³ per share CAGR⁴ >20% capital employed in transition⁶ Growing ROACE to 12-14%⁵
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- 25. 25 Secret Upstream reported production (ex.Rosneft) Lower than 2020 due to the impact of the ongoing divestment programme Upstream underlying1 production (ex. Rosneft) Slightly higher than 2020 due to the ramp-up of major projects, primarily in gas regions, partly offset by the impacts of reduced capital investment and decline in lower-margin gas assets Total capital expenditure ~$13bn DD&A Similar level to 2020 Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments ~$1bn post-tax OB&C2 underlying annual charge $1.2-1.4bn Quarterly charge may vary quarter to quarter Underlying effective tax rate3 >40% Guidance (1) Underlying production: the actual reported number will depend on divestments, OPEC quotas, and other factors (2) OB&C: Other businesses and corporate (3) Underlying effective tax rate is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses Full year 2021 1Q21 vs 4Q 2020 Oil and gas production ▪ Slightly higher reported production Refining ▪ Industry refining margins and utilisation to remain under pressure Marketing ▪ Renewed COVID-19 restrictions to have a greater impact on product demand ▪ January retail volumes down by around 20% year on year
- 26. 26 Secret 4Q 2020 summary (1)Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects (2) bp estimate of Rosneft earnings after interest, tax and minority interest (3) Finance costs and net finance income or expense relating to pensions and other post-retirement benefits (4) Underlying effective tax rate on replacement cost profit adjusted to remove the effects of non-operating items and fair value accounting effects (5) Underlying operating cash flow is net cash provided by/(used in) operating activities excluding post-tax Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments $bn 4Q19 3Q20 4Q20 % Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q Upstream 2.7 0.9 0.7 Downstream 1.4 0.6 0.1 Other businesses and corporate (0.3) (0.1) (0.1) Underlying business RCPBIT1 3.9 1.4 0.7 (81%) (47%) Rosneft2 0.4 (0.2) 0.3 Consolidation adjustment – unrealised profit in inventory 0.0 0.0 (0.1) Underlying RCPBIT 1 4.3 1.2 1.0 (77%) (22%) Finance costs3 (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) Tax (1.0) (0.4) (0.2) Minority interest 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) Underlying replacement cost profit 2.6 0.1 0.1 (96%) 34% Underlying effective tax rate4 27% 64% 40% Underlying operating cash flow5 7.6 5.3 2.4 (69%) (56%) Underlying earnings per share (cents) 12.7 0.4 0.6 (96%) 34% Dividend paid per share (cents) 10.25 5.25 5.25 (49%) 0% Dividend declared per share (cents) 10.50 5.25 5.25 (50%) 0%
- 27. 27 Secret 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4Q19 1Q20 2Q203Q20 4Q20 Upstream Underlying RCPBIT3 $bn (1) Group reported oil and gas production including Rosneft (2) Realisations based on sales of consolidated subsidiaries only, excluding equity-accounted entities (3) Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects Volume mboed Group production1 Upstream production excluding Rosneft 2.7 1.9 (8.5) 0.9 0.7 (10) (8) (6) (4) (2) 0 2 4 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 Non-US US Total Realisations2 4Q19 3Q20 4Q20 Liquids ($/bbl) 56 38 38 Gas ($/mcf) 3.1 2.6 3.1 4Q 2020 vs 3Q 2020 ▪ Significantly weaker gas marketing and trading ▪ Higher exploration write-offs ▪ Lower volumes/product mix impact Partially offset by ▪ Higher liquids and gas realisations
- 28. 28 Secret 1.4 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 (0.2) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 4Q19 1Q20 2Q203Q20 4Q20 Fuels Lubricants Petrochemicals Total 96% Refining availability1 3Q20: 96% Downstream (1) bp-operated refining availability (2) Replacement cost profit before interest and tax (RCPBIT), adjusted for non-operating items and fair value accounting effects Underlying RCPBIT2 $bn Refining environment 4Q19 3Q20 4Q20 RMM ($/bbl) 12.4 6.2 5.9 4Q 2020 vs 3Q 2020 ▪ Lower marketing performance, with volumes remaining under pressure due to COVID-19 ▪ Continued pressure on refining margins and utilisation; and ▪ A higher level of turnaround activity
- 29. 29 Secret (0.4) (0.2) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 4Q19 1Q20 2Q203Q20 4Q20 Rosneft (1) On a replacement cost basis and adjusted for non-operating items; 4Q20 represents bp estimate (2) From 2018, represents bp’s share of 50% of Rosneft’s IFRS net profit (3) Average daily production for 4Q20 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 2018 2019 2020 Dividend paid bp share of Rosneft dividend2 $bn bp share of underlying net income1 $bn 1.1mmboed bp share of Rosneft production3