Brussels Briefing n. 56: Sir Gordon Conway "Sustainable agriculture and the water–energy–food nexus"

Editor's Notes

• #3 Continental and global policy frameworks So why should we be looking at increasing irrigation uptake in Africa? There is now growing attention amongst policymakers to the need for and potential of irrigation to contribute to continental and global agricultural transformation agendas. There are a variety of relevant approaches, some specifically targeting irrigation uptake, and others addressing water-use and water resource management in agriculture, as well as more ecosystem-based approaches. Under African Union (AU) Agenda 2063 Goal #7 seeks to increase levels of water productivity from rain-fed agriculture and irrigation by 60 percent from 2013 levels, and to harvest at least 10 percent of rainwater for human, agricultural and industrial use. Goal #5 promotes policies that contribute to value addition in agriculture through investments in agro-processing, irrigation, and road infrastructure to meet several targets, including the doubling of agricultural productivity Under the Malabo Declaration Goal #3: Commitment to ending hunger in Africa by 2025 Goal #3.1 covers investments in and development of irrigation schemes. In 2017, only eight countries were on track to meeting the goal: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Rwanda and Zambia. The BR explicitly notes the need for investments in irrigation in five countries, namely Niger, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. But it is useful to bear in mind that there isn’t a dedicated indicator on irrigation development within the Biennial Review – and this could potentially be very useful. The 2025 African Water Vision created by the African Union, the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) which calls for “an Africa where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water resources for poverty alleviation, socio-economic development, regional cooperation, and the environment.” The framework stresses the need to increase water productivity of rain-fed agriculture and irrigation by 60 percent and the area under irrigation by 100 percent by 2025. On the global scale, Sustainable Development Goals Within Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) #6 the need for improving water quality, integrated water resource management, and the protection and restoration of water-related ecosystems is stressed. Most recently, at the AGRF in Kigali this September, a joint statement affirmed the support for inclusive and sustainable farmer-led irrigation in Africa and its role for achieving food security and poverty reduction.
• #4 Climate change in Africa Across Africa and other parts of the world, farmers are already battling the adverse impacts of climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, more extreme weather events are already causing more frequent and intense floods and droughts. This in turn is increasingly disrupting the availability and use of water for rain-fed agriculture. The 2015/16 El Niño led to the lowest rainfall levels in 35 years in Africa and caused intense drought in the Horn Africa, with devastating impacts on the region’s food security and countries’ economies. South Africa’s Cape Town nearly arrived at its Day Zero scenario when there would be no water available for its citizens, let alone agriculture. Foods in Nigeria devastated vast croplands. Future projections are equally bleak: some studies suggest that by 2050 grain crop yields across Africa will shrink substantially. According to models developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), by 2050, yields of rain-fed maize will decline by as much as 25 percent or more in some parts of Africa, relative to 2000 levels. Yields of sorghum and millet are also estimated to decline by more than 30 and 40 percent respectively. Falling yields have an impact on the cost of food too. Some studies project that maize, rice and wheat prices in 2050 will be 4, 7 and 15 percent higher respectively. Prices sweet potato, cassava and millet will increase by 26, 20 and 4 percent respectively. And these impacts will not be limited simply to the agricultural sectors. Since agricultural GDP is a key part of national GDP in most African nations, climate change has a direct impact on whole economies. For instance, a once- in-10-year drought event could reduce the GDP of Malawi by 4 percent, with even larger impacts for 15- and 25-year droughts.
• #5 So it is vital that we look into irrigation as a means to improve the resilience of farmers to climate change. Despite the clear needs and benefits of irrigation, investment in irrigation in Africa remains low, especially when compared to Asia. Despite highly variable and, in many countries, insufficient rainfall, food production in Africa continues to be almost exclusively rain-fed, resulting in lower than average yields compared to other developing regions. A mere 6 percent of cultivated land is currently irrigated in Africa, compared to 14 and 37 percent in Latin America and Asia respectively.
• #6 Climate change in Africa Across Africa and other parts of the world, farmers are already battling the adverse impacts of climate change. Rising global temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, more extreme weather events are already causing more frequent and intense floods and droughts. This in turn is increasingly disrupting the availability and use of water for rain-fed agriculture. The 2015/16 El Niño led to the lowest rainfall levels in 35 years in Africa and caused intense drought in the Horn Africa, with devastating impacts on the region’s food security and countries’ economies. South Africa’s Cape Town nearly arrived at its Day Zero scenario when there would be no water available for its citizens, let alone agriculture. Foods in Nigeria devastated vast croplands. Future projections are equally bleak: some studies suggest that by 2050 grain crop yields across Africa will shrink substantially. According to models developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), by 2050, yields of rain-fed maize will decline by as much as 25 percent or more in some parts of Africa, relative to 2000 levels. Yields of sorghum and millet are also estimated to decline by more than 30 and 40 percent respectively. Falling yields have an impact on the cost of food too. Some studies project that maize, rice and wheat prices in 2050 will be 4, 7 and 15 percent higher respectively. Prices sweet potato, cassava and millet will increase by 26, 20 and 4 percent respectively. And these impacts will not be limited simply to the agricultural sectors. Since agricultural GDP is a key part of national GDP in most African nations, climate change has a direct impact on whole economies. For instance, a once- in-10-year drought event could reduce the GDP of Malawi by 4 percent, with even larger impacts for 15- and 25-year droughts.
• #7 The potential benefits of irrigation By increasing water supplies and enabling cultivation during the dry season, irrigation can help farmers to extend the growing season(s) and thus diversify activities, increase productivity levels and incomes. Available estimates also indicate that across SSA small-scale irrigation could boost maize yields by 141–195 percent and paddy yields by 270–283 percent, compared to yields achieved under rain-fed agriculture Inclusive irrigation policies can contribute to improved farmer resilience and livelihoods, as well as to better nutrition, women’s empowerment, and employment generation for rural youth. Estimates show that, without substantial additional investment in irrigation, the share of people at risk of hunger in Africa could increase by 5 percent by 2030 and by 12 percent by 2050 due to climate change. Smallholders using irrigation frequently grow vegetables, fruits, and other cash crops rich in micronutrients during the dry season that also increase household income when they are sold at markets at high prices. Research has shown that crops grown under irrigation, especially horticultural crops, can generate important employment opportunities for rural and urban youth.
• #8 Current Irrigation Uptake and Potential Of this 6 percent, more than two-thirds is concentrated in just five countries—Egypt, Madagascar, Morocco, South Africa and Sudan—each of which have more than a million hectares of irrigated land. Yet, African countries produce 38 percent of their crops by value under irrigation, while 62 percent are rain-fed. Fortunately, the potential to increase irrigation in Africa is high, at 47 million hectares. Considering both land and water resources, much of the increase would take place in SSA, where irrigated land could be expanded to 38 million hectares, up from the current 7.7 million.
• #9 Opportunities for Innovation in irrigation As can be seen across the continent, there are innovations that can substantially increase countries’ irrigation potential. In many countries across Africa, irrigated areas rely on basic or improvised techniques such as flood recession, spate irrigation, and use of wetlands, all of which are less productive and reliable than modern irrigation technologies. However, there are signs of increasing uptake of on-farm pressurized irrigation technologies, such as sprinklers and micro-irrigation, that have potential to reduce water consumption and significantly improve the productivity and quality of horticultural crops. In Morocco, government efforts have led to the amount of land equipped with drip irrigation increase significantly between 2008 and 2014 to 450,000 ha, with the aim of reaching 550,000 ha by 2020 under the Plan Maroc Vert.
• #10 Overcoming barriers to Irrigation uptake Although the potential for increasing irrigation across the continent is high and the benefits of irrigation could be remarkable, there are a number of barriers and potential risks that hinder irrigation development and expansion. This includes barriers such as poor infrastructure, limited access to finance, insufficient skill development, and insecure land tenure. Infrastructure and technologies: energy infrastructure and technologies to access groundwater are particularly inadequate across Africa to enable farmers to harness water resources. Skills development: it is critical to equip farmers and service providers with the skills to design, operate, maintain and repair some of the more advanced and sophisticated irrigation technologies and systems. Without the right set of skills, misuse and mismanagement of machinery can result in water and yield losses and severely hinder the continued use of modern irrigation technologies. In Morocco, 52 agricultural vocational training centers across the country improve the technical and competitive capacities of businesses and farms. Land tenure: Irrigation uptake therefore requires a transparent land tenure system that guarantees rights for producers, particularly for the most vulnerable, including women and young people. Mali passed a law in 2017 which ensures that a minimum of 15 percent of irrigated land is allocated to women and youth. Access to finance: The significant up-front costs of purchasing and installing irrigation systems put most irrigation technologies far beyond the reach of smallholder farmers. To finance irrigation expansion at scale across Africa, a mix of investments and smart design of large- and small-scale irrigation schemes will be needed to benefit smallholder farmers and to leverage countries’ full irrigation potential. African governments on average dedicated just 3.1 percent of national budgets to agriculture. Studies suggest that if governments were to meet the 10 percent CAADP expenditure target for agriculture and allocate just 1–5 percent to irrigation development, considerable investments in irrigation infrastructure would in fact be feasible and profitable. There are opportunities to replicate innovative financing models from other parts of the agricultural sector, such as hiring services, and PPPs to share the risk between the private sector and the government. One innovative approach in this context are Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) models in which the ownership of the project stays with the government, while a private company is given the temporary right to operate the facility commercially. After the project period, the facility is transferred to the government. Multiple-use water systems (MUS) involve different interest groups and the diversification and pooling of possible funding sources. Outside of local and domestic sources of funding, irrigation projects can also access grants and low-interest loans from global funds such as the Green Climate Fund, and the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program. In Morocco, the GCF, together with the Moroccan government and the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), is investing approximately US$90 million in a five-year project for irrigation development and adaptation of irrigated agriculture to climate change at the Guir wadi. The project will build an irrigation system connected to a nearby dam, thereby ensuring sustainable flows of water to farms while preserving water resources for other downstream users. It is estimated that the project will benefit 15,500 farmers. Returns on investment: the return on irrigation investment would be higher if farmers could get better prices for their produce. Thus it is crucial that they have better storage facilities and access to markets. Integrated approaches: similarly, irrigation would be more effective if farmers also have improved access to other inputs such as seeds
• #11 Niger on the other has had a strong emphasis on implementing small-scale irrigation interventions through national policies and programs including: The Accelerated Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy of 2002 The Rural Development Strategy of 2003 promoting private investment in small-scale irrigation The Private Irrigation Promotion Project (2003-08) implemented by the Agency for the Promotion of Private Irrigation The Strategy of Small Irrigation of 2015
• #12 Ethiopia is one of the countries that has shown strong institutional innovation with respect to irrigation, involving different ministries in the development of irrigation schemes across the country. The Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity leads the development and implementation of water sector policy, planning, and water resource regulation and is the main actor to handle medium- and large-scale irrigation schemes. It is also responsible for regional and interregional water resource development and management, as well as for functions that involve international procurement; The Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resource Development is responsible for developing community-managed small-scale irrigation schemes (up to 250 ha); The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change is in charge of investigating the environmental impact of irrigation projects; and the The Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation is responsible for allocating capital budget for the construction of such projects. In addition, in 2010, the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) was established, chaired by the Prime Minister.
• #13 Recommendations: The present report has identified the set of policies and practices that, if brought to scale, could significantly improve the resilience and livelihoods of rural communities and spur overall agricultural growth and transformation in Africa. Irrigation needs to be elevated to a top policy and long-term investment priority. Smart regulation for water use needs to be coupled with incentives to promote the dissemination of technologies for the use of treated waste water. To take irrigation to scale through effective public–private partnerships, financial securities, smart subsidies, or tax waivers need to be put in place as incentives for the private sector to engage with smallholders. Increased investment in institutional and physical infrastructure to expand access to skills development and upgrading is critical. The acquisition of new irrigation systems and equipment by smallholder farmers requires a supportive fiscal regime where barriers to accessing finance for equipment and services are removed and access to micro-credits and leasing arrangements for irrigation equipment is facilitated.