CCXG Global Forum, September 2025, Raphaël Jachnik

CCXG Global Forum, September 2025, Raphaël Jachnik

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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Unpacking the USD 1.3tn scale-up call Scope and grey zones with the USD 300bn goal _____ Raphaël Jachnik (OECD) Based on “Unpacking the USD 300 billion goal and the USD 1.3 trillion scale up call in the NCQG”, C. Falduto, R. Jachnik (2025, draft) CCXG Global Forum | 16-17 September 2025
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Framing How does the USD 1.3tn extend beyond the USD 300bn? Potential grey zones between the USD 1.3tn and USD 300bn Data sources and estimation challenges for the USD 1.3 trillion Recap and looking ahead Outline
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Framing: NCQG decision paragraph 7 “Calls on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035”
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Framing: the USD 1.3 trillion scale up call includes but extends beyond the USD 300 billion goal • Paragraph 7: USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035 scale up call • Paragraph 8: USD 300 billion per year by 2035 goal Para 7 Para 8
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint • Private finance independent of public interventions typically found within, e.g. mainstream foreign direct investment and commercial lending • Although typically smaller in scale: • Philanthropic contributions, e.g. technical assistance grants, contributions to programme and project development • Household and individual-level investments, e.g. purchase of green bonds, contributions to crowdfunding, investments in small-scale projects. The USD 1.3tn call is distinct from Article 2.1c, which more broadly addresses all finance globally both supporting or undermining climate goals How does the USD 1.3tn extend beyond the USD 300bn?
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Potential grey zones between the USD 1.3tn and USD 300bn? • Areas of ambiguity due to: • Broad language of the NCQG: common language between the two quantified elements, areas left for interpretation • Complex financial landscape: not always straight forward to position finance on a spectrum from pure public to pure private, or define its geographic origin • Examples include: • Private climate finance catalysation • Climate finance resulting from global solidarity levies • Article 6-related financial flows Grey zones, if left unclear, create risks of inconsistent data flows as well as lack of trust and policy relevance of figures.
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint • Definition: private investments resulting from combination of many enabling factors over time, e.g. capacity building, public policies, market conditions • Suggested distinction: • Mobilised private finance = attributable to a specific public intervention at the transaction level → counted under USD 300bn • Catalysed private finance = not attributable to individual public interventions or actors → contributes to USD 1.3tn Assessing trends in catalysed private finance requires separate indicators and methods, rather than merging with mobilisation data The Paris Agreement ETF refers to a single concept of “mobilisation” Grey zone focus: catalysed private finance
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Data sources and estimation challenges relating to the USD 1.3 trillion scale up call • Existing data sources provide complementary perspectives based on different underlying scope and methods, e.g. IEA, BloombergNEF, Climate Bonds Initiative • Challenges with investment databases and existing estimates • Gaps and overlaps in coverage of different financial flows and assets • Gaps in country and sectoral coverage • Difficulties in isolating climate-specific finance from broader investment • Some limitations in attributing a geographic origin Assessing the USD 1.3tn likely to require a set of non-mutually exclusive indicators rather than a single consolidated figure.
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint Conclusion Recap of key messages • The USD 1.3tn call includes and goes beyond financial flows under the USD 300bn goal • Grey zones create double counting and accountability risks for the USD 300 billion goal • Assessing progress on the USD 1.3 trillion likely to require a set of indicators Looking ahead • Clarify boundaries to ensure transparency, accountability, and trust • Identify complementary indicators relevant to the USD 1.3 trillion • Collaborate on improving underlying data availability beyond the ETF
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  Restricted Use -À usage restreint THANK YOU! http://oe.cd/ccxg [email protected]