China Reckoning War Room

China Reckoning War Room

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  China Reckoning 18 December2019
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  War Room Idea Generation MacroCoaching Scenario Updates HiddenLevers runs on SCENARIOS like Instagram runs on PHOTOS
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  Scenarios in Play sources:HiddenLevers CURRENT TRANSITION China Reckoning
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  PRE-ELECTION RALLY: TrumpToolkit sources: HiddenLevers, MarketWatch, WSJ, Bloomberg, Mercury News, Washington Post PRESSURE FED BIPARTISANSHIPAPPROVE MORE VISAS TRADE WAR VICTORY - real deal - optics win - abandon H1-Bs flat since 2018 OPM
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  PRE-ELECTION RALLY: TrumpToolkit sources: HiddenLevers, MarketWatch, WSJ, Bloomberg, Mercury News, Washington Post PRESSURE FED BIPARTISANSHIPAPPROVE MORE VISAS TRADE WAR VICTORY - real deal - optics win - abandon H1-Bs flat since 2018 OPM UNLIKELY WORKED IN 2019, NO MORE IN 2020 NAFTA REPLACEMENT DEC SHUTDOWN AVERTED
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  CHINA RECKONING: TradeWar Impact sources: HiddenLevers, United Nations, Int’l Business Times, Bloomberg, Business Insider TRADE WAR TIMELINE
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  CHINA RECKONING –Bigger Issues than Trade War sources: HiddenLevers, Bank of Finland, Bank of International Settlements, Fox Business, CNBC Growth near US levels China Corporate Debt-to-GDP Manufacturing exodus driven by China labor costs, not only trade war China GDP Growth + Forecast 55% of Chinese pigs dead pork crisis amplified trade war impact Debt far exceeds USA levels
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  CHINA RECKONING: IsDe-globalization Working for US? sources: HiddenLevers, CNBC / Nomura, Nikkei, US Census Bureau WINNERS Vietnam phones / furniture / data processors Taiwan computers / phones Chile copper / soybeans Malaysia integrated circuits / semiconductors Argentina agricultural commodities LOSERS China MANUFACTURING CONSUMERS USA AGRICULTURE MANUFACTURING CONSUMERS
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  New Silk Road BASELINE GOOD S&P 500 2550 -20% S&P500 3400 +7% S&P 500 3350 +5%Manufacturing Exodus UGLY China Recession NEGATIVE GROWTH CURRENTLY MASKED BY GOVT SPENDING CHINA CREATES ECONOMIC ECO-SYSTEM WITH NO US INVOLVEMENT RELOCATION OF MNC FACTORIES DUE TO RISING LABOR COST + TRADE FRICTION CHINA RECKONING: Scenario Outcomes China GDP 0% (-6) China GDP +7.5% (+1.2) China GDP +4.5% (-1.5) Shanghai 3650 +20% Shanghai 2840 -6% Shanghai 1800 -40%
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  China + EM Rebound BASELINE GOOD S&P500 2550 -20% S&P 500 3715 +16% S&P 500 3360 +5%Low Rates Ease US Pain UGLY China Recession DEC 2019 TARIFFS MIGHT HAVE TRIGGERED CHINA CRASH AND CHAIN REACTION EM CO-DEPENDENCY WORKS BOTH WAYS FED LOWERED RATES TO 1.5% WHICH JUICED US ECONOMY TRADE WAR: Scenario Outcomes GDP 0.6% (-1.4) GDP +3.1% (+1.1) GDP +2.5% (+0.4) 10y Bond 2.25% 10y Bond 2.0% 10y Bond 1.75%
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  CHINA RECKONING: Whatto Say US halting DEC 2019 tariffs may have been averting an economic Cuban Missile Crisis Trump took optics victory due to US politics, but could have gotten a better deal based on US economic strength China Recession risk outlives the trade war Big winner in US-China trade war is Vietnam
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  HOUSING + IMMIGRATION BOOMEREXODUS POTUS ELECTION 2020 SCENARIOS