Climate Change & Conflict

Climate Change
Workshop On Integration of Climate Change and Natural
Resource Management in Peace Building Activities
Moroto, Uganda: 5th to 6th November, 2015
DanielWere, Sector Specialist,
Peniel Development Consult

Overview
What is climate change?
What is the impact of climate change?
What can be done to avert climate
change - at local and institutional
levels?
What have nations done / are doing to
address climate change?
Discussion Questions:

 Nature doesn’t need people. People need nature
 Every meal you’ve ever eaten … every breath you’ve ever taken … every job
you’ve ever had … everything you’ve ever owned … Nature made it all
possible
 We need nature. But people are taking more from nature than it can
provide
 Every year, 15 million hectares of forest are cut, slashed and burned.That’s
more than 75,000 football fields every single day
 Demand for water already exceeds supply in many parts of the world — in fact,
783 million people lack access to clean water
 Global demand for food is expected to double by 2050 — yet wild
pollinators are dying, 75 billion tons of soil disappear every year, and droughts
are becoming more common
 Th e global political economy of climate change is already evident. Greenhouse
gas (GHG) emission-driven climate change knows no boundaries and does not
respect states’ territorial sovereignty
Some Facts:

Climate change occurs when long-term weather patterns
are altered — for example, through human activity. Global
warming is one measure of climate change, and is a rise in
the average global temperature
Climate patterns play a fundamental role in shaping natural
ecosystems, the human economies and cultures that depend
on them.
Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping
gases in the atmosphere have warmed the Earth and are
causing wide-ranging impacts, including rising sea levels;
melting snow and ice; more extreme heat events, fires and
drought; and more extreme storms, rainfall and floods.
What is Climate Change?

Climate vulnerability is defined as the extent to which a
natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage
from climate change including climate variability and
extreme weather events
In the last two centuries humans have discharged
approximately 2.3 trillion tons of carbon dioxide, half of
which occurred in the last thirty years. This has resulted in a
31% increase of CO2 since 1750 and rising temperatures.
The Third Assessment Report of the UN's
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
predicts a global temperature rises of 1.4°C to 5.8°C by the
end of the century.
Climate Change (cont …)

Because so many systems are tied to climate, a change in climate
can affect many related aspects of where and how people, plants
and animals live, such as food production, availability and use of
water, and health risks.
Shifts in climate change have had dramatic consequences around
the globe, especially in developing countries, which have a greater
dependence on agriculture, large population growth, weak
infrastructure and low adaptive capacity
Decreased food yields, accelerated desertification or flooding
which destroys fertile land, increased climate variability, creating
economic shocks, and the accelerated spread of disease
(increases in malaria, waterborne diseases, pests)
Diminishing access to resources, such as land and water, leading to
increased competition, creating environmental refugees and
exacerbating issues of vulnerability
Immediate Impacts of Climate Change!

Because so many systems are tied to climate, a change in
climate can affect many related aspects of where and how
people, plants and animals live, such as food production,
availability and use of water, and health risks.
Shifts in climate change have had dramatic consequences
around the globe, especially in developing countries, which
have a greater dependence on agriculture, large population
growth, weak infrastructure and low adaptive capacity
Climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated
by the interaction of “multiple stresses”, occurring at various
levels, and low adaptive capacity
decreased food yields, accelerated desertification or flooding
which destroys fertile land, increased climate variability,
creating economic shocks, and the accelerated spread of
disease.
Impacts (Cont …)

The lack of economic resources has led to weak infrastructure,
evidenced by the fact that 64% of the populations has access to
an improved water source and only 29% of the urban
population to improved sanitation facilities. Much of the
population relies on the environment.
65% of the land is committed to agriculture (World
Development Indicators Database) while a large portion of
citizens are self-employed in agriculture, which makes up 40%
of GDPs in East Africa. These circumstances make
Kenya/Uganda very vulnerable to the effects climate change,
with little adaptive capacity
Impacts (Cont …)

Group 1: How have local people responded
or tried to cope with climate change? Who
is doing what?
Group 2: How has local and national
government responded to climate change?
Group 3: Has climate change contributed
to potential or actual conflict? If so, how?
Discussion Questions:

Overview of Conflicts in
the Context of Climate
Change and NRM

Climate change-related events clearly have the potential to
impede or reverse economic development and generate
humanitarian crises in vulnerable areas
Conflict is almost always the result of the interactions of
multiple factors including … political, economic, social,
historical, and cultural factors, and these must be taken into
account in any analysis
The degree of a country’s or society’s resilience is pivotal in
determining the pathways toward or away from violence
Environmental governance suffers from both a lack of political
will and a lack of institutional resources … Which is why it
becomes fundamentally important to mainstream
Climate Change in our interventions
Can Climate Change actually lead to conflicts?

Conceptual link between climate change, resource scarcity
and resource conflict

Conflict is inevitable in human relations as it acts as a motor of
change. It impacts all of us personally, relationally, structurally and
culturally (Looking at the migration patterns elsewhere)
Conflicts of all types emerge from incompatible goals which are
mutually exclusive which give rise to a contradiction or issue,
creating frustration owing to intensified, basic goals such as
achieving fundamental human needs like food or shelter (People
escaping war zones or battle fields)
The frustration may then lead to aggression in the form of
attitudes of hatred or behaviors of violence. The violence may be
directed at those with the contradictory goals or towards a less
rational target. Thus, conflict arises from a combination of
attitudes, behaviors and contradiction
Assessing ConflictVulnerabilities Owing to Climate Change

Africa is incredibly vulnerable to climate change in the
geographic sense. This is worsened by the existence of multiple
stresses and low adaptive capacities
Global warming either creates the incompatible goals, by
increasing competition for resources, or aggravates preexisting
conflicts, adding more contradictions and intensifying attitudes.
Climate change threatens water and food security, the allocation
of resources and coastal populations, which could lead to forced
migration, increased tensions and more frequent conflict. It has,
in fact, been called a ―threat multiplier‖
Consequences for climate change in Africa include a fall in
agricultural production, water shortages, mass migrations and
greater risk from vector-borne diseases. Thus, climate change
creates another route to scarcity and collapse
Vulnerabilities and Conflicts (Cont …)

Lack of infrastructure and services, especially in resource-
dependent communities. This insufficiency limits economic
activity and worsens poverty, which intensifies feelings of
vulnerability and increases the probability of violence
Political instability and poor governance also limit adaptive
strategies leading to resource competition, a feeling of
present and future insecurity that exacerbates conflict
The unpredictability and novelty of climate change creates
high levels of anxiety and uncertainty (In Kenya El Nino)
Worsening poverty due to cattle raiding, theft, property
damage, population displacement and fatalities
Vulnerabilities and Conflicts (Cont …)

Status of major environmental treaties in Africa

Major environmental treaties Number of
African states to
have ratified,
acceded to,
approved or
succeeded to
Cartagena Protocol on Bio-safety (2000) 40
Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 52
Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change
(1997)
47
Convention on Biological Diversity (1992) 52
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1988) 51
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
(1989)
53
Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (2001) 44
Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982) 40
Convention to Combat Desertification (1994) 53

National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA)
Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS)
Climate Change Coordination Unit (CCCU) – Kenya
Clean Development Mechanism and the Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+)
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Parliamentary Network on Renewable Energy and Climate
Change (PANERECC)
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change’s (UNFCC)
Other Climate Change Initiatives

1) Promote Confidence-Building and Increase Trust
Between Governments (of Uganda/Kenya) and the
Citizens
2) Sustain and diversify livelihoods
3) Support climate change adaptation for increased
resilience in affected areas
4) Promote food security interventions
5) Contribute to peacebuilding interventions involving
diverse stakeholders
6) Address knowledge gaps about climate and Climate
Change in communities
What are some recommended interventions to
avert conflicts relating to climate change/NRM?

Aii … Aii Mayi; Aii Aii …Mayi (x2)
OmwanaWanje
Aii NatembeaTira Omwana Natembea
The Small Frog and the Big Frog

Africa is home to 14% of the world population but accounts for
only 3% of the worlds energy consumption
It contributes to approximately 3.8% of total greenhouse gas
emissions
By 2020 it is projected that between 75 and 250 million
Africans will be exposed to water stress caused by climate
change
Many African countries cannot cope with the current impacts
of climate change’ and that Africa ‘has little capacity to
mitigate the effects [of climate change] or adapt to them
The AU and African regional organisations are oft en absent
from the proceedings of climate change-related multilateral
organisations such as the UN Commission on Sustainable
Development (CSD)
Why We must do everything to address Climate Change:

Need for the integration of the environmental protection concerns
into the manifold policies of African states in general and the AU in
particular’
Almost all African states have ratified, acceded for approval or
succeeded to the major international environmental treaties. In
particular, all African states have ratified the 1992 Climate Change
Convention
African states subscribe to international environmental norms,
principles and procedures relating to the environment, which
constitutes the international environmental regime, which here refers
to a ‘system of principles, norms, operating procedures and
institutions that actors create or accept to regulate and coordinate
action in a particular issue area’
AU has been predominantly preoccupied with the effects of
desertification on the continent and the effective implementation of
the UN Convention to Combat Desertification
Why Cont… :

Problem Coping
Strategy
Level of effectiveness Impact on
Conflict
Proposed
Solution
Low Moderate High
Action Planning

“If you think you are too small to
make an impact, try going to bed
with a mosquito in the room”
―It is only when a mosquito lands
on your testicles that you realize
there is always a way to solve
problems without using violence”

Climate Change & Conflict

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