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Climate Change Effects on Agriculture in the Midwest
The document discusses climate change strategies for agriculture, emphasizing the importance of soil and water management practices to enhance resilience and mitigate negative impacts on crop and livestock production. It highlights current agricultural vulnerabilities due to increased weather extremes and stresses the need for innovative approaches over the next 25 years to maintain food security. Key recommendations include building soil organic matter, improving nutrient and water use efficiency, and adapting livestock management practices.
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Climate Change Effects on Agriculture in the Midwest
- 1. Strategies for Adaptationand Mitigation
- 2. Jerry L. Hatfield LaboratoryDirector National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment Director, Midwest Climate Hub 2110 University Blvd Ames, Iowa 50011 515-294-5723 515-294-8125 (fax) [email protected]
- 3. Building soilorganic matter, such as by minimum/conservation tillage; Note: Soil OM is third largest carbon pool on earth; Integrated nutrient management practices, such as green manures, planting of legumes, livestock manure. Increase water and nitrate use efficiency, irrigation, water harvesting; Improve livestock management practices, grassland management, land restoration, and apply agro forestry. BETTER SOIL ANDWATER MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ARE KEY
- 4. Inputs Temperature Precipitation Solar radiation Carbon dioxide Direct Growth Phenology Yield Indirect Insects Diseases Weeds Soil is the underlying factor as a resource for nutrients and water
- 5. Climate disruptionshave increased in past 40 years and projected to increase over the next 25 years. By mid-century and beyond, these impacts will be increasingly negative on most crops and livestock. Many agricultural regions will experience declines in crop and livestock production from increased stress due to weeds, diseases, insect pests, and other climate change induced stresses.
- 6. Lobell et al.2011 Science 333:616-620
- 7. Story Co Corn Year 19501960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Yield(buacre -1 ) -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap
- 8. Christian Co Corn Year 19501960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Yield(buacre -1 ) -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap
- 9. Soybean Story CoIowa Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Yield(buacre -1 ) -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap
- 10. Christian Co Soybean Year 19501960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Yield(buacre -1 ) -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Actual Yield Attainable Yield Yield Gap
- 11. Iowa Maize StoryCounty Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Yield(kgha -1 ) -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Attainable Yield Actual Yield Yield Gap Iowa Maize Story County Fraction of Attainable Yield 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 CumulativeFrequency 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
- 12. Corn Hybrid RX730 Daysafter Planting 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 TotalCollars 0 5 10 15 20 25 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid DK 61-72 Days after Planting 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 TotalCollars 0 5 10 15 20 25 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid XL45A Days after Planting 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 TotalCollars 0 5 10 15 20 25 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns. 2139 13700 0 7323 2168 12962 kg ha-1
- 13. Corn Hybrid RX730 Daysafter Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 TotalCollars 0 5 10 15 20 25 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid DKC61-72 Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 TotalCollars 0 5 10 15 20 25 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid XL45A Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 TotalCollars 0 5 10 15 20 25 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns. 599 4711 342 3053 0 4197 kg ha-1
- 14. Corn Hybrid RX730 Daysafter Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 CumulativeLeafArea(cm 2 ) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid DK 61-72 Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 CumulativeLeafArea(cm 2 ) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid XL45A Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 CumulativeLeafArea(cm 2 ) 0 2000 4000 6000 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid DKC61-72 Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 CumulativeLeafArea(cm 2 ) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid XL45A Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 CumulativeLeafArea(cm 2 ) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Corn Hybrid RX730 Days after Planting 20 40 60 80 100 120 CumulativeLeafArea(cm 2 ) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures First Run Second Run
- 15.
- 16. Current lossand degradation of critical soil and water assets due to increasing extremes in precipitation will continue to challenge both rainfed and irrigated agriculture unless innovative conservation methods are implemented The rising incidence of weather extremes will have increasingly negative impacts on crop and livestock productivity because critical thresholds are already being exceeded
- 17. Mean NCCPI 0.2 0.30.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 CountyYield(gm-2 ) 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 Kentucky Iowa Nebraska Kentucky (Double crop)Y = 131.187 + 187.458X. r2 = 0.72*** Soybean yields across Iowa, Kentucky, and Nebraska Climate resilience is derived from good soils in rainfed agricultural systems
- 18. NCCPI-AG 0.4 0.6 0.81.0 MeanCountyYield(gm-2 ) 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Kentucky Iowa Y = 436.096 + 478.149X, r2 = 0.58***
- 20. Corn 2010-2012 Total Season InterceptedPAR (MJ m-2 ) 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 GrainYield(kgha-1 ) 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 2010 2011 2012 Corn 2010-2012 Grain-filling Intercepted PAR (MJ m-2 ) 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 GrainYield(kgha-1 ) 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 2010 2011 2012
- 21. Agriculture hasbeen able to adapt to recent changes in climate; however, increased innovation will be needed over the next 25 years. Climate change effects on agriculture will have consequences for food security, both in the US and globally, through changes in crop yields and food prices and effects on food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing.
- 24. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 5 1015 20 July-AugustPrecipitation(in) May-June Precipitation (in) Spring and Summer Rainfall- Ohio 1895-1980 1981-2013 Dry Spring Wet Summer Wet Spring Wet Summer Dry Spring Dry Summer Wet Spring Dry Summer
- 25. 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 5 10 15 20 0 510 15 20 July-AugustPrecipitation(in) May-June Precipitation (in) Spring and Summer Rainfall- Illinois 1895-1980 1981-2013 Dry Spring Wet Summer Wet Spring Wet Summer Dry Spring Dry Summer Wet Spring Dry Summer
- 26. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 1015 20 July-AugustPrecipitation(in) May-June Precipitation (in) Spring and Summer Rainfall- Minnesota 1895-1980 1981-2013 Dry Spring Wet Summer Wet Spring Wet Summer Dry Spring Dry Summer Wet Spring Dry Summer
- 29. Organic Matter (%) 01 2 3 4 5 6 7 AvailableWaterContent(%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Data Points Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OM Silt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OM Silty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM Degrading the soil resource decreases the water holding capacity Hudson, 1994
- 30. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1895 1905 19151925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Precipitation(in) Annual Precipitation- Minnesota Annual Spring Annual Summer Annual Linear (Annual) Linear (Spring Annual) Linear (Summer Annual)
- 31. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1895 1905 19151925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Precipitation(in) Annual Precipitation- Iowa Annual Spring Annual Summer Annual Linear (Annual) Linear (Spring Annual) Linear (Summer Annual)
- 32. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 1900 1920 19401960 1980 2000 Precipitation(in) Minnesota Precipitation: 1901-2010 30 Year Mean Annual Mean Min Limit Max Limit
- 34. Midwest Corn Production Year 19851990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 TotalClaims 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Excessive Moisture/Precipitation Drought Frost
- 35. Midwest Soybean CropInsurance Year 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 TotalInsuranceClaims 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 InsurancePayouts($) 0.0 2.0e+8 4.0e+8 6.0e+8 8.0e+8 1.0e+9 1.2e+9 1.4e+9 1.6e+9 1.8e+9 Total Claims Total Dollars in Claims
- 36.
- 39. 54.8 55.2 55.6 56 56.4 56.8 57.2 57.6 58 58.4 58.8 59.2 59.6 60 60.4 60.8 61.2 61.6 62 62.4 62.8 63.2 63.6 64 64.4 1900 1920 19401960 1980 2000 MaxTemperature(F) Iowa MaxTemperature: 1901-2010 30 Year Mean Annual Mean Min Limit Max Limit
- 40. 33.2 33.6 34 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.6 36 36.4 36.8 37.2 37.6 38 38.4 38.8 39.2 39.6 40 40.4 40.8 41.2 41.6 42 42.4 1900 1920 19401960 1980 2000 MinTemperature(F) Iowa MinTemperature: 1901-2010 30 Year Mean Annual Mean Min Limit Max Limit
- 42. How colddoes it get in the wintertime? Was it warm before the cold spell occurred? In the springtime when fruit crops start to grow, when gardeners are planting, farmers start to plant corn – like to know a month beforehand if the temperature was going to get below 20F or 25F and for how long Fall: ▪ When harvesting freeze tender crops – what is the chance for a freeze in the next week? ▪ If growing hops and it freezes, the harvest is over in 24 hours
- 43. Prediction ofdew point temps at night, In terms of cooling animals, it’s not how high during the day but how much it cools off at night, as well as the high dew points When the animals can’t cool off at night, that’s problematic The only technique currently to effectively cool animal housing is by sprinkling – which is useless when the dew points are already high (they don’t have air conditioning) Heat stress is the most important for livestock ▪ For dairy, there is heat stress above 65F ▪ It is difficult to cool big birds with large feathers Other issues ▪ When livestock producers lose electrical power, they have minutes to do something or you have dead animals ▪ Transport of animals during summer requires special attention to temperature and humidity conditions to ensure safe transport.
- 44. Has therange changed with the changing climate? Will within season weather affect the dynamics of pests and disease populations? Can we develop more effective prediction tools?
- 45. Linked togetherto protect and enhance the natural resources of soil, water, and air The goal is to integrate information to deliver solutions to producers through a variety of outlets