Climate Change: Effects on New England’s Forests

Climate Change: Effects on New England’s Forests

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  Climate Change: Effects onNew England’s Forests Maria Janowiak April 4, 2017 Water Initiative Northeast Workshop
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  Partnerships Vulnerability Assessment Forest AdaptationResources Adaptation Demonstrations Climate Change Response Framework Components: Progress: 125+ partner organizations (and counting) 8 published assessments, 1 in prep Published in 2012, 2nd edition in 2016, & online workbook 200+ demonstrations underway Structured, process oriented, works on multiple scales www.forestadaptation.org
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  www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment Vulnerability Assessment • Seriesof reports for natural resource professionals • Focus on tree species and forest ecosystems • Examine a range of future climates • Evaluate key ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change • Does not make recommendations or assess vulnerability to changes in mgmt., land use, policy
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  New England &Northern New York • Synthesize existing literature and climate change assessments • Incorporate new results from models projecting forest response to climate change www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
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  Vulnerability Assessment Contents •Current Forest Condition • Observed Climate Change • Future Climate Change • Climate Change Impacts on Forests • Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability • Implications for Forest Management www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat LINKAGES: species establishment LANDIS: productivity and composition
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Increased disturbance from extreme events  Heavy precipitation  Flooding  Ice storms  Heat waves/droughts  Wind storms  Hurricanes “Events” are very difficult to predict VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept. NOAA
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed. It’s like the weatherman is saying there’s a 50% chance of rain tomorrow. More Precipitation Less Precipitation June-October Figure: Lynch et al. 2016
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed. Rain during the growing season may not change a lot. Precipitation
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed. Rain during the growing season may not change a lot. Water loss from soils (evaporation) Groundwater recharge Runoff PrecipitationWater loss from trees (transpiration)
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed. Rain during the growing season may not change a lot. Water loss from soils (evaporation) Groundwater recharge PrecipitationWater loss from trees (transpiration) Runoff  Extreme events increase runoff
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Future predictions of summer precipitation are mixed. Rain during the growing season may not change a lot.  Extreme events increase runoff  Warmer temperatures dry air & soils Result: Risk of moisture stress & drought Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate.
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate. 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High Current Distribution Importance Value Low High Suitable Habitat: Red Spruce
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate. Basal Area: Red Spruce
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate. = species X suitable habitat 50% Reduction in Habitat: Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Plant and animal species will respond to changes in climate. What really matters:  Local conditions  Competition  Management  Disturbance
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  Variable weather Water changes Specieschanges Threat multiplier Interactions make all the difference.  Chronic stress  Disturbances  Invasive species  Insect pests  Forest diseases Image: Bartlett Tree Experts Drought Injury Pests and Disease
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  Generally Challenges • Reducedgrowth from moisture stress • Decline of northern & boreal species • Disturbance from extreme events • Wildfire potential • Forests pests & disease • Invasive species Generally Opportunities • Increased productivity: longer growing season • Increased productivity: more CO2 • Increased habitat for some species Depends on SITE and OBJECTIVES! Effects on Forests www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
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  Last Slide: Location,Location, Location Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management make the difference.
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  Thank you! Maria Janowiak [email protected]