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Connecticut Forestry in a Changing Climate

This document discusses how forests in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are being impacted by climate change and provides recommendations for adapting forest management. Key points: - Temperatures have risen 3°F since 1900 and are projected to increase another 3.5-8.5°F by 2100, leading to longer growing seasons but also increased moisture stress. Precipitation has increased, especially from extreme events. - Species compositions are shifting as northern species decline and southern species expand their ranges. Many common tree species will have reduced suitable habitat. - Forest managers can take actions to enhance resilience like increasing diversity, retaining habitat structures, establishing reserves, and facilitating transitions to new species. Adaptation approaches include resistance,

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Forestry in a Changing Climate Focus: Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island Maria Janowiak mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science USDA Forest Service Climate Change Response Framework www.forestadaptation.org
Climate Change Information Image: www.ucciaconf.org
Climate Change Information
"Conservation is the foresighted utilization, preservation and/or renewal of forests, waters, lands and minerals for the greatest good of the greatest number for the longest time." Gifford Pinchot, Breaking New Ground
Many of the region’s forests are 80+ years old. Longest time… How long? Foster et al. 2017 (Wildlands & Woodlands), Butler et al. 2015
Over the past 80-120 years Temperature • 3°F warmer since 1900 • More hot days and nights • Shorter, warmer winters Runkle & Kunkle 2017 (NOAA State Summary - CT); NOAA Climate at a Glance; USGCRP 2017 (NCA) Sea Levels • 10-11 inches per century Precipitation Events • +2.5-7.5 inches annually • 74% increase in extreme events (“5-year” event)
Over the next 80 years Temperature • 3.5-8.5°F more warming • 20+ days growing season • 1-2 months less snow cover Runkle & Kunkle 2017 (NOAA State Summary - CT); NOAA Climate at a Glance; USGCRP 2017 (NCA) Sea Levels • Rise another 7-23 inches Precipitation Events • More annual precipitation (but seasonally variable) • Continued extreme events
Desired Future Condition TIME Climate-Driven Changes
Desired Future Condition TIME Climate Change Trajectory ? Climate-Driven Changes
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of a system to cope with change and meet your goals and objectives?
Climate Change Effects on Forests NEW REPORT! www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635 Additional resources: www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment  Synthesize state/regional assessments and scientific literature  Incorporate new results from forest impact models: Climate Change Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, LANDIS  Draw on local expertise of scientists and land managers
Climate Change Effects on Forests Forest Change Shifting SEASONS Shifting STRESSORS Shifting SPECIES
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons  Evidence of phenological shifts  Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014 Longer Growing Season SHIFTING SEASONS: THE GOOD
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
Shorter Winter (Less Snow) Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth  30-70% decreases in snowfall  Greatest loss in December/January Notaro et al. 2014, Figure: Frumhoff et al. 2007 Area with some snow on ground for 30 days per year Red = historic White = high emissions SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth  30-70% decreases in snowfall  Greatest loss in December/January Decreased snowpack  Increased soil freeze-thaw cycles can damage roots and alter soil processes Shorter Winter (Less Snow) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
More rain  Warmer temperatures  Increased precipitation  Extreme rain events Earlier peak stream flows  Flashiness and episodic high flows may increase Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006 Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
More rain  Warmer temperatures  Increased precipitation  Extreme rain events Earlier peak stream flows  Flashiness and episodic high flows may increase Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006 Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Precipitation Runoff Earlier spring runoff and increased runoff during extreme rain events SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
Longer and warmer growing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temperatures drive water loss from soils and plants SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY
Sea-level Rise  Continued increases of multiple feet  Enhanced storm surge Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/ SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY
 Heavy precipitation  Ice storms  Heat waves/droughts  Wind storms  Hurricanes  “Events” are not well modeled VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept. Extreme Events SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY
Changes in Forest Composition Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat LINKAGES: species establishment LANDIS: productivity and composition PCM B1 GFDL A1FI SHIFTING SPECIES
Changes in Forest Composition Many northern/boreal species are projected to decline in the region– contract to more northerly and higher-elevation locations Many species common farther south are expected to see increased and new habitat within the region. SHIFTING SPECIES
Likely to decline  Balsam fir  Eastern white pine  Paper birch  Quaking aspen  Red spruce  American beech  Eastern hemlock  Yellow & gray birch Mixed model results  Sugar & red maple  Black birch  Chestnut oak  Northern red oak Potential “winners”  American elm  American basswood  Black oak  Eastern hophornbeam  Eastern red cedar  Mockernut hickory  Pitch pine  Shagbark hickory  Yellow-poplar  White oak New habitat (esp. south)  Chinkapin oak  Common persimmon  Eastern redbud  Hackberry  Loblolly pine  Osage-orange  Shortleaf pine  Southern red oak  Sweetgum  Virginia pine www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species Changes in Forest Composition SHIFTING SPECIES
= species X suitable habitat 50% Reduction in Habitat: Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain Changes in Forest Composition SHIFTING SPECIES
 Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future  Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback  Mature and established trees should fare better  Immense lags to occupy habitats  Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance Changes in Forest Composition Risk may be greatest: • Location is relatively near the southern extent of species range • Trees are projected to decline and located on a marginal site • Forest is composed of few species, esp. those projected to decline • Something is “missing” from the ecosystem • Other factors cause additional stress SHIFTING SPECIES
More Wildfire? Wildfire may increase:  Warmer/drier summers  Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions  Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines Wildfire may not change:  Spring/early summer moisture  Current regeneration of more mesic species  Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation  Fire suppression Clark et al. 2014, Guyette et al. 2014 Future climate conditions suggest increased risk of fire. SHIFTING STRESSORS
Extreme Events Extreme events may become more frequent or severe  Heavy precipitation  Ice storms  Heat waves/droughts  Wind storms  Hurricanes  “Events” are not well modeled Photo: Joe Klementovich, HBRF SHIFTING STRESSORS
Insects and Disease Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct:  Pests migrating northward  Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures  Accelerated lifecycles Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009, Weed et al. 2013, Sturrock et al. 2011 Increased damage from forest insects & diseases Hemlock woolly adelgid incidence ~2015 SHIFTING STRESSORS
Invasive Plants Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct:  Expanded ranges under warmer conditions  Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2 Dukes et al. 2009, Hellman et al. 2008; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org) Increased habitat for many noxious plants SHIFTING STRESSORS
“Threat Multiplier” Image: Bartlett Tree Experts Drought Injury Interactions make all the difference.  Chronic stress  Disturbances  Insect pests  Forest diseases  Invasive species Pests and Disease SHIFTING STRESSORS
Your Expertise What’s at risk in YOUR forest? RegionalTrends LocalConditions
How Managers are Responding  Adaptation Demonstrations provide real-world examples of forest management activities that: • Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing conditions • Achieve land owner management goals  Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning  Illustrate diverse goals and approaches
www.forestadaptation.org/demos 250+ Projects have used the Adaptation Workbook Adaptation Demonstrations Real-world examples of climate-informed forest management
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 adaptationworkbook.org Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook Provides a structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management planning and activities 1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames. 2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. 3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. 4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics. 5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions. Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
1. Define location, project and time frames.
Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary  Privately-managed refuge with >8,000 acres in MA and CT  Heart of Emerald Forest within MassConn region  Forest management on portions of Sanctuary  Upland & aquatic habitats 1. Define location, project and time frames.
 Review resources to understand regional impacts from climate change  Consider your local site conditions to understand unique vulnerabilities and risks. Illustration by Jerry Jenkins, from Rustad et al. 2012 New report! 2. Assess site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
 Extreme precipitation events leading to altered stream flow and hydrologic change  Common northern species are likely to experience greater stress, such as maple, birch, and beech  Oak-hickory forest species may have increased habitat 2. Assess site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
3. Evaluate management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
 Extreme weather events could create challenges to forest management operations (-), but could also enhance structural diversity (+)  Many insect pests and invasive plants may become more problematic in the future, especially if forests are stressed from changes in the climate (-)  Loss of hemlock and other important species reduce cover and food available for many important wildlife species (-)  Extreme rain events could damage culverts and forest roads, negatively impacting water quality (-) 3. Evaluate management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
Wildlife habitat conservation Climate- informed Forest stewardship 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
Increase diversity of tree species and sizes (tree thinning)  Favor species valuable for wildlife and promote diversity  Improve growth and health of remaining trees Retain: Den trees, dead trees, and downed wood for habitat Protect: Establish riparian wetland reserves 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
Wildlife habitat conservation Climate- informedForest stewardship 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Adaptation Workbook Provides a structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management planning and activities 1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames. 2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. 3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. 4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics. 5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions. Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
3. Evaluate management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics. Desired Future Condition TIME Climate Change Trajectory ?
RESISTANCE  Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE  Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION  Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance  Intentionally facilitate change  Enable ecosystem to respond to changing and new conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION  Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance  Intentionally facilitate change  Enable ecosystem to respond to changing and new conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
Activity Purpose: consider how different forest management activities could be used given different landowner perspectives about future change
Activity Adaptation Strategies and Approaches provide “stepping stones” from big ideas to specific management actions Management Goals & Objectives Climate Change Impacts Intent of Adaptation (Option) Make Idea Specific (Strategy, Approach) Action to Implement (Tactic) Challenges & Opportunities Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Activity Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each) Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction
Activity Adaptation Actions Benefits Drawbacks & Barriers Effective & Feasible?Approach Tactic & Time Frame Use the menu to identify one or multiple adaptation approaches Specific management action, including when it would be implemented Pros of the action Cons of the action Is the action reasonable? (yes/no) Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each) Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction Work in small groups
Activity Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each) Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction Work in small groups Adaptation Actions Benefits Drawbacks & Barriers Effective & Feasible?Approach Tactic & Time Frame Use the menu to identify one or multiple adaptation approaches Specific management action, including when it would be implemented Pros of the action Cons of the action Is the action reasonable? (yes/no) 4.1: Favor or restore native species that are expected to be adapted to future conditions Thin stand within 3 years, focusing on reducing species X. Favor species Y when present. • Reduces risk of species X decline • Improves structure for birds • Species Y isn’t as marketable Yes
Scenario 1 = Resistance (Worksheet1) The landowner wants to maintain the forest in its current condition and wants to defend against changes from stressors as much as possible. They would like to maintain the forest composition similar to its current state, without substantial changes. • What actions could be used to hold the forest in its current condition? • How much effort would this take, and what are the potential benefits or barriers?
Scenario 2 = Resilience (Worksheet2) The landowner recognizes that forests experience disturbance, but wants to keep the forest recognizable as a native hardwood forest. They would like to maintain an ash component to the extent it’s possible, but they also want to promote a healthy, functioning forest ecosystem. • What actions could be used to enhance the ability of the forest to cope with change? • How much effort would this take, and what are the potential benefits or barriers?
Scenario 3 = Transition (Worksheet3) The landowner anticipates tremendous change in the future due to emerald ash borer and other stressors, and they want to manage for a “forest of the future.” They don’t care what the forest looks like, as long as it is a healthy, functioning forest ecosystem. • What could the future forest look like, and what actions could be used to achieve these conditions? • How much effort would this take, and what are the potential benefits or barriers?
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION  Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance  Intentionally facilitate change  Enable ecosystem to respond to changing and new conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Activity – discussion
Communication Strategies First, a couple questions… How many consulting foresters – who work with private woodland owners? Have any of you had landowners ask your professional advice about climate change? How many land managers (public or private?) Have any of you already begun to address climate change in your work?
Why Engage Landowners? We’re working in larger regions and wider partnerships with bigger goals in mind: Increasing the pace - and scale - of conservation Improving forest health Even with all of our historic efforts, private landowners remain largely unaware of resources available to help them make key decisions
MassConn Sustainable Forest Partnership • 38 towns MA, CT • 760,000 acres • 76% forested • 23% protected
Targeting Outreach • Heat map: Ecological Priorities – Red = top 20% • Using GIS data to create mailing list for forester visit offers from high ranking parcel ownerships
New Tools for Parcel Assessment Visits • Project includes Social Marketing to help owners adopt practices to keep their woods healthy & resilient
2016 – Free Forester Visit Offers • Direct mail to 613 MA, 424 CT owners of 30+ acres across all 38 towns in regional partnership
• NEFF dispatches the trained foresters to schedule the visits • Follow-up packets and email or phone calls – referral to right resource
Engaging private landowners through “demo” site walks Harvest & Habitat Walks Folded Hills Forest 40-acre management site August 2016 Whaleback Ridge Forest 20-acre harvest site May 2016
Know your audience. What do they really believe?
Find common ground. What resonates? Early bud break Wash- outs Extreme weather Moisture stress
Forester Recommended: Continue to remove invasives, replace with natives (protect soil, H2O) Thin, release crop/mast trees (prepare for weather; promote strong trees) Release white pine regeneration (promote diversity of tree species) Considerations forYour Woodlot 29 acres - Woodstock, CT
Former Grant Results – 41 parcel visits So far: 1,500 acres under climate-informed management Goal: 500 acres MassConn Hand-Raisers 2014-17 (mailing address) To date: • 6 NIACS-trained consulting foresters • Engaging owners of ~3,000 acres • Individualized support for 18 owners to apply for cost-share, incorporate climate in plans or practices
Southern New England Heritage Forest $12.2 million RCPP Funding • Phase 1 - Federal conservation easement fund (Healthy Forest Reserve Program – management in perpetuity for bird habitat) • Applications due July 20 o MassConn - MA o Last Green Valley – CT o N. RI Cons. Dist - RI
• Phase 2: $1.5 million for EQUIP • Fall 2018 application • Bird habitat assessments with each state Audubon; forest management plans & practices on about 6,000 acres • To learn more: Visit The Last Green Valley web site http://thelastgreenvalley.org/learn- protect/agriculture- forestry/southern-new-england- heritage-forest/ RCPP Funding
We can reach and engage the critical ownership audience of private woodland owners – even on a complex issue like climate!
Talking to Landowners and Others 1. Climate change is just one of many issues 2. Meet the landowner where they are 3. Focus on multiple benefits
Desired ConditionsAesthetics Birds and wildlife Previous landowners’ actions Invasives Should I harvest? Storms Trails/access Forest health And more!! Climate Change Paying the taxes
Talking about Climate Change is Tricky 2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions and suggest interventions
Talking about Climate Change is Tricky 1) Seen as politically contentious even though scientifically accepted
Talking about Climate Change is Tricky 2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions and suggest interventions Uncertainty in everyday life: Image: financialsamurai.com
Uncertainty & Future Projections
Uncertainty & Future Projections Not this: More like this:
Talking about Climate Change is Tricky 1) Seen as politically contentious even though scientifically accepted 2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions and suggest interventions 3) Need to avoid mental shutdown to have meaningful discussion
When it’s a direct issue When Do you Say “Climate Change” ? Don’t beat around the bush.  Somebody else has brought it up as an issue.  Climate change raises a concern that is pertinent to management.  You want to show that you’ve considered climate change.
Your choice if… When Do you Say “Climate Change” ?  Climate change is an indirect factor with long-term effects  Client isn’t interested and there’s nothing to disclose  Non-professional or non-technical audiences How important is it?
How to Say It Extreme events resonate. “We’re seeing more damage from extreme rain events, so this would be a good time to invest in a larger culvert”
How to Say It Be specific.  Climate change is too vague. “It would be good to increase species diversity in this stand sooner rather than later so you have more options in the future. This means we may need to consider larger gaps.”
How to Say It List several reasons  List climate change as one of many reasons. “This harvest method will increase the amount of structure in the forest, which will improve habitat for many bird species, as well as establish new seedlings for the future forest.
In Plans Climate change section (template text available)  Climate change & carbon required elements in Forest Stewardship Plans  Introduce idea  Identify climate impacts of greatest concern Some examples: www.forestadaptation.org/hill-robert www.forestadaptation.org/buffambrook www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake www.forestadaptation.org/suchovsky
In Plans Stand-level descriptions or prescriptions  Identify specific concerns or issues  Make connections to proposed management Some examples: www.forestadaptation.org/northwoods-center www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake
In Plans Appendices  Additional details  Adaptation Workbook worksheets Some examples: www.forestadaptation.org/hill-robert www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake

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In this document
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Introduction to forestry impacts due to climate change in Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island.

Overview of Climate Change Information without specific details given.

Definition of conservation from Gifford Pinchot emphasizing sustainable use of natural resources.

Mention of forests in the region being over 80 years old, referencing specific studies.

Data on temperature changes, sea levels, and precipitation events over 80-120 years.

Introduction to desired future conditions and climate-driven changes anticipated over the next 80 years.

Discussion on actions to enhance system resilience to climate change.

New report on climate change effects on forests, covering assessments, models, and local expert input.

Effects of climate on forest growing seasons, including benefits and detriments resulting from shifting seasons.

Projected changes in forest species composition and habitat suitability due to climate impacts.

Potential impacts from increased wildfire risk, extreme weather events, pests, and diseases on forests.

The importance of land management adaptation strategies and examples of real-world projects.

Overview of a structured approach for climate change integration into forest management.

Evaluation of local climate impacts and management objectives based on specific vulnerabilities.

Identification and implementation of diverse management strategies aimed at enhancing forest resilience.

Importance of monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of implemented adaptation actions.

Adaptation options including resistance, resilience, and transition strategies for forest management.

Strategies for engaging landowners on climate-related forest management and promoting healthy ecosystems.

Techniques for effective communication about climate change with landowners, focusing on practical contexts.

Connecticut Forestry in a Changing Climate

  • 1.
    Forestry in aChanging Climate Focus: Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island Maria Janowiak [email protected] Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science USDA Forest Service Climate Change Response Framework www.forestadaptation.org
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
    "Conservation is theforesighted utilization, preservation and/or renewal of forests, waters, lands and minerals for the greatest good of the greatest number for the longest time." Gifford Pinchot, Breaking New Ground
  • 5.
    Many of theregion’s forests are 80+ years old. Longest time… How long? Foster et al. 2017 (Wildlands & Woodlands), Butler et al. 2015
  • 6.
    Over the past80-120 years Temperature • 3°F warmer since 1900 • More hot days and nights • Shorter, warmer winters Runkle & Kunkle 2017 (NOAA State Summary - CT); NOAA Climate at a Glance; USGCRP 2017 (NCA) Sea Levels • 10-11 inches per century Precipitation Events • +2.5-7.5 inches annually • 74% increase in extreme events (“5-year” event)
  • 7.
    Over the next80 years Temperature • 3.5-8.5°F more warming • 20+ days growing season • 1-2 months less snow cover Runkle & Kunkle 2017 (NOAA State Summary - CT); NOAA Climate at a Glance; USGCRP 2017 (NCA) Sea Levels • Rise another 7-23 inches Precipitation Events • More annual precipitation (but seasonally variable) • Continued extreme events
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
    What actions canbe taken to enhance the ability of a system to cope with change and meet your goals and objectives?
  • 11.
    Climate Change Effectson Forests NEW REPORT! www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/55635 Additional resources: www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment  Synthesize state/regional assessments and scientific literature  Incorporate new results from forest impact models: Climate Change Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, LANDIS  Draw on local expertise of scientists and land managers
  • 12.
    Climate Change Effectson Forests Forest Change Shifting SEASONS Shifting STRESSORS Shifting SPECIES
  • 13.
    Warmer temps resultin longer growing seasons  Evidence of phenological shifts  Projected to increase 3-7+ more weeks Longer period for plant growth Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014 Longer Growing Season SHIFTING SEASONS: THE GOOD
  • 14.
  • 15.
    Shorter Winter (LessSnow) Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth  30-70% decreases in snowfall  Greatest loss in December/January Notaro et al. 2014, Figure: Frumhoff et al. 2007 Area with some snow on ground for 30 days per year Red = historic White = high emissions SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 16.
    Projected decreases insnow fall, cover, and depth  30-70% decreases in snowfall  Greatest loss in December/January Decreased snowpack  Increased soil freeze-thaw cycles can damage roots and alter soil processes Shorter Winter (Less Snow) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 17.
    More rain  Warmertemperatures  Increased precipitation  Extreme rain events Earlier peak stream flows  Flashiness and episodic high flows may increase Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006 Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 18.
    More rain  Warmertemperatures  Increased precipitation  Extreme rain events Earlier peak stream flows  Flashiness and episodic high flows may increase Dale et al 2001, Huntingon 2004, Parmesan 2006 Shorter Winter (Less Snow, More Rain) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 19.
    Longer and warmergrowing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 20.
    Longer and warmergrowing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Precipitation Runoff Earlier spring runoff and increased runoff during extreme rain events SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 21.
    Longer and warmergrowing seasons may lead to drier conditions during the growing season. Increased Risk of Moisture Stress Water loss from soils (evaporation) Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation Warmer temperatures drive water loss from soils and plants SHIFTING SEASONS: THE BAD
  • 22.
  • 23.
    Sea-level Rise  Continuedincreases of multiple feet  Enhanced storm surge Projected of areas affected by sea level rise along Rhode Island sea coast Figure: STORMTOOLS, www.beachsamp.org/resources/understand-risk/ SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY
  • 24.
     Heavy precipitation Ice storms  Heat waves/droughts  Wind storms  Hurricanes  “Events” are not well modeled VTRANS/VT ANR NY DEC Dan Turner, Cambridge Fire Dept. Extreme Events SHIFTING SEASONS: THE UGLY
  • 25.
    Changes in ForestComposition Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat LINKAGES: species establishment LANDIS: productivity and composition PCM B1 GFDL A1FI SHIFTING SPECIES
  • 26.
    Changes in ForestComposition Many northern/boreal species are projected to decline in the region– contract to more northerly and higher-elevation locations Many species common farther south are expected to see increased and new habitat within the region. SHIFTING SPECIES
  • 27.
    Likely to decline Balsam fir  Eastern white pine  Paper birch  Quaking aspen  Red spruce  American beech  Eastern hemlock  Yellow & gray birch Mixed model results  Sugar & red maple  Black birch  Chestnut oak  Northern red oak Potential “winners”  American elm  American basswood  Black oak  Eastern hophornbeam  Eastern red cedar  Mockernut hickory  Pitch pine  Shagbark hickory  Yellow-poplar  White oak New habitat (esp. south)  Chinkapin oak  Common persimmon  Eastern redbud  Hackberry  Loblolly pine  Osage-orange  Shortleaf pine  Southern red oak  Sweetgum  Virginia pine www.forestadaptation/org/ne-species Changes in Forest Composition SHIFTING SPECIES
  • 28.
    = species X suitablehabitat 50% Reduction in Habitat: Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain Changes in Forest Composition SHIFTING SPECIES
  • 29.
     Many commontree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future  Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback  Mature and established trees should fare better  Immense lags to occupy habitats  Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance Changes in Forest Composition Risk may be greatest: • Location is relatively near the southern extent of species range • Trees are projected to decline and located on a marginal site • Forest is composed of few species, esp. those projected to decline • Something is “missing” from the ecosystem • Other factors cause additional stress SHIFTING SPECIES
  • 30.
    More Wildfire? Wildfire mayincrease:  Warmer/drier summers  Increased stress or mortality from less suitable conditions  Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines Wildfire may not change:  Spring/early summer moisture  Current regeneration of more mesic species  Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation  Fire suppression Clark et al. 2014, Guyette et al. 2014 Future climate conditions suggest increased risk of fire. SHIFTING STRESSORS
  • 31.
    Extreme Events Extreme eventsmay become more frequent or severe  Heavy precipitation  Ice storms  Heat waves/droughts  Wind storms  Hurricanes  “Events” are not well modeled Photo: Joe Klementovich, HBRF SHIFTING STRESSORS
  • 32.
    Insects and Disease Indirect:Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility Direct:  Pests migrating northward  Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures  Accelerated lifecycles Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009, Weed et al. 2013, Sturrock et al. 2011 Increased damage from forest insects & diseases Hemlock woolly adelgid incidence ~2015 SHIFTING STRESSORS
  • 33.
    Invasive Plants Indirect: Stressor disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success Direct:  Expanded ranges under warmer conditions  Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2 Dukes et al. 2009, Hellman et al. 2008; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org) Increased habitat for many noxious plants SHIFTING STRESSORS
  • 34.
    “Threat Multiplier” Image: BartlettTree Experts Drought Injury Interactions make all the difference.  Chronic stress  Disturbances  Insect pests  Forest diseases  Invasive species Pests and Disease SHIFTING STRESSORS
  • 35.
    Your Expertise What’s atrisk in YOUR forest? RegionalTrends LocalConditions
  • 36.
    How Managers areResponding  Adaptation Demonstrations provide real-world examples of forest management activities that: • Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing conditions • Achieve land owner management goals  Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning  Illustrate diverse goals and approaches
  • 37.
    www.forestadaptation.org/demos 250+ Projects have usedthe Adaptation Workbook Adaptation Demonstrations Real-world examples of climate-informed forest management
  • 38.
    Swanston et al.2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 adaptationworkbook.org Forest Adaptation Resources
  • 39.
    Adaptation Workbook Provides astructured process to integrate climate change considerations into management planning and activities 1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames. 2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. 3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. 4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics. 5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions. Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
  • 40.
  • 41.
    Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary Privately-managed refuge with >8,000 acres in MA and CT  Heart of Emerald Forest within MassConn region  Forest management on portions of Sanctuary  Upland & aquatic habitats 1. Define location, project and time frames.
  • 42.
     Review resourcesto understand regional impacts from climate change  Consider your local site conditions to understand unique vulnerabilities and risks. Illustration by Jerry Jenkins, from Rustad et al. 2012 New report! 2. Assess site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
  • 43.
     Extreme precipitationevents leading to altered stream flow and hydrologic change  Common northern species are likely to experience greater stress, such as maple, birch, and beech  Oak-hickory forest species may have increased habitat 2. Assess site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
  • 44.
    3. Evaluate management objectivesgiven projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
  • 45.
     Extreme weatherevents could create challenges to forest management operations (-), but could also enhance structural diversity (+)  Many insect pests and invasive plants may become more problematic in the future, especially if forests are stressed from changes in the climate (-)  Loss of hemlock and other important species reduce cover and food available for many important wildlife species (-)  Extreme rain events could damage culverts and forest roads, negatively impacting water quality (-) 3. Evaluate management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
    Increase diversity oftree species and sizes (tree thinning)  Favor species valuable for wildlife and promote diversity  Improve growth and health of remaining trees Retain: Den trees, dead trees, and downed wood for habitat Protect: Establish riparian wetland reserves 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
    5. MONITOR and evaluateeffectiveness of implemented actions.
  • 52.
    Adaptation Workbook Provides astructured process to integrate climate change considerations into management planning and activities 1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time frames. 2. ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest. 3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities. 4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation approaches and tactics. 5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions. Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other resources Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
  • 53.
    3. Evaluate management objectivesgiven projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
  • 54.
    4. Identify andimplement adaptation approaches and tactics.
  • 55.
    4. Identify andimplement adaptation approaches and tactics. Desired Future Condition TIME Climate Change Trajectory ?
  • 56.
    RESISTANCE  Improve defensesof forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
  • 57.
    RESISTANCE RESILIENCE  Improvedefenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
  • 58.
    RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance  Intentionally facilitate change  Enable ecosystem to respond to changing and new conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
  • 59.
    RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance  Intentionally facilitate change  Enable ecosystem to respond to changing and new conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Adaptation Options 4. Identify and implement adaptation approaches and tactics.
  • 60.
    Activity Purpose: consider howdifferent forest management activities could be used given different landowner perspectives about future change
  • 61.
    Activity Adaptation Strategies andApproaches provide “stepping stones” from big ideas to specific management actions Management Goals & Objectives Climate Change Impacts Intent of Adaptation (Option) Make Idea Specific (Strategy, Approach) Action to Implement (Tactic) Challenges & Opportunities Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
  • 62.
    Activity Series of 3management scenarios (~15 minutes each) Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction
  • 63.
    Activity Adaptation Actions Benefits Drawbacks & Barriers Effective& Feasible?Approach Tactic & Time Frame Use the menu to identify one or multiple adaptation approaches Specific management action, including when it would be implemented Pros of the action Cons of the action Is the action reasonable? (yes/no) Series of 3 management scenarios (~15 minutes each) Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction Work in small groups
  • 64.
    Activity Series of 3management scenarios (~15 minutes each) Goal: Brainstorm/consider actions to cope with climate change while meeting landowner goals, objectives, and direction Work in small groups Adaptation Actions Benefits Drawbacks & Barriers Effective & Feasible?Approach Tactic & Time Frame Use the menu to identify one or multiple adaptation approaches Specific management action, including when it would be implemented Pros of the action Cons of the action Is the action reasonable? (yes/no) 4.1: Favor or restore native species that are expected to be adapted to future conditions Thin stand within 3 years, focusing on reducing species X. Favor species Y when present. • Reduces risk of species X decline • Improves structure for birds • Species Y isn’t as marketable Yes
  • 65.
    Scenario 1 =Resistance (Worksheet1) The landowner wants to maintain the forest in its current condition and wants to defend against changes from stressors as much as possible. They would like to maintain the forest composition similar to its current state, without substantial changes. • What actions could be used to hold the forest in its current condition? • How much effort would this take, and what are the potential benefits or barriers?
  • 66.
    Scenario 2 =Resilience (Worksheet2) The landowner recognizes that forests experience disturbance, but wants to keep the forest recognizable as a native hardwood forest. They would like to maintain an ash component to the extent it’s possible, but they also want to promote a healthy, functioning forest ecosystem. • What actions could be used to enhance the ability of the forest to cope with change? • How much effort would this take, and what are the potential benefits or barriers?
  • 67.
    Scenario 3 =Transition (Worksheet3) The landowner anticipates tremendous change in the future due to emerald ash borer and other stressors, and they want to manage for a “forest of the future.” They don’t care what the forest looks like, as long as it is a healthy, functioning forest ecosystem. • What could the future forest look like, and what actions could be used to achieve these conditions? • How much effort would this take, and what are the potential benefits or barriers?
  • 68.
    RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION Improve defenses of forest against change and disturbance  Maintain relatively unchanged conditions  Accommodate some degree of change  Return to prior reference condition following disturbance  Intentionally facilitate change  Enable ecosystem to respond to changing and new conditions Millar et al. 2007Millar et al. 2007, Swanston et al. 2016, Nagel et al. 2017 Activity – discussion
  • 69.
    Communication Strategies First, acouple questions… How many consulting foresters – who work with private woodland owners? Have any of you had landowners ask your professional advice about climate change? How many land managers (public or private?) Have any of you already begun to address climate change in your work?
  • 70.
    Why Engage Landowners? We’reworking in larger regions and wider partnerships with bigger goals in mind: Increasing the pace - and scale - of conservation Improving forest health Even with all of our historic efforts, private landowners remain largely unaware of resources available to help them make key decisions
  • 71.
    MassConn Sustainable Forest Partnership •38 towns MA, CT • 760,000 acres • 76% forested • 23% protected
  • 72.
    Targeting Outreach • Heat map: Ecological Priorities– Red = top 20% • Using GIS data to create mailing list for forester visit offers from high ranking parcel ownerships
  • 73.
    New Tools forParcel Assessment Visits • Project includes Social Marketing to help owners adopt practices to keep their woods healthy & resilient
  • 74.
    2016 – FreeForester Visit Offers • Direct mail to 613 MA, 424 CT owners of 30+ acres across all 38 towns in regional partnership
  • 75.
    • NEFF dispatchesthe trained foresters to schedule the visits • Follow-up packets and email or phone calls – referral to right resource
  • 76.
    Engaging private landowners through“demo” site walks Harvest & Habitat Walks Folded Hills Forest 40-acre management site August 2016 Whaleback Ridge Forest 20-acre harvest site May 2016
  • 77.
    Know your audience. Whatdo they really believe?
  • 78.
    Find common ground. Whatresonates? Early bud break Wash- outs Extreme weather Moisture stress
  • 79.
    Forester Recommended: Continue toremove invasives, replace with natives (protect soil, H2O) Thin, release crop/mast trees (prepare for weather; promote strong trees) Release white pine regeneration (promote diversity of tree species) Considerations forYour Woodlot 29 acres - Woodstock, CT
  • 80.
    Former Grant Results– 41 parcel visits So far: 1,500 acres under climate-informed management Goal: 500 acres MassConn Hand-Raisers 2014-17 (mailing address) To date: • 6 NIACS-trained consulting foresters • Engaging owners of ~3,000 acres • Individualized support for 18 owners to apply for cost-share, incorporate climate in plans or practices
  • 81.
    Southern New England Heritage Forest $12.2 million RCPPFunding • Phase 1 - Federal conservation easement fund (Healthy Forest Reserve Program – management in perpetuity for bird habitat) • Applications due July 20 o MassConn - MA o Last Green Valley – CT o N. RI Cons. Dist - RI
  • 82.
    • Phase 2:$1.5 million for EQUIP • Fall 2018 application • Bird habitat assessments with each state Audubon; forest management plans & practices on about 6,000 acres • To learn more: Visit The Last Green Valley web site http://thelastgreenvalley.org/learn- protect/agriculture- forestry/southern-new-england- heritage-forest/ RCPP Funding
  • 83.
    We can reachand engage the critical ownership audience of private woodland owners – even on a complex issue like climate!
  • 84.
    Talking to Landownersand Others 1. Climate change is just one of many issues 2. Meet the landowner where they are 3. Focus on multiple benefits
  • 85.
    Desired ConditionsAesthetics Birds and wildlife Previous landowners’ actions Invasives ShouldI harvest? Storms Trails/access Forest health And more!! Climate Change Paying the taxes
  • 86.
    Talking about ClimateChange is Tricky 2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions and suggest interventions
  • 87.
    Talking about ClimateChange is Tricky 1) Seen as politically contentious even though scientifically accepted
  • 88.
    Talking about ClimateChange is Tricky 2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions and suggest interventions Uncertainty in everyday life: Image: financialsamurai.com
  • 89.
  • 90.
    Uncertainty & FutureProjections Not this: More like this:
  • 91.
    Talking about ClimateChange is Tricky 1) Seen as politically contentious even though scientifically accepted 2) Uncertainty makes it difficult to talk about future conditions and suggest interventions 3) Need to avoid mental shutdown to have meaningful discussion
  • 93.
    When it’s a direct issue WhenDo you Say “Climate Change” ? Don’t beat around the bush.  Somebody else has brought it up as an issue.  Climate change raises a concern that is pertinent to management.  You want to show that you’ve considered climate change.
  • 94.
    Your choice if… When Doyou Say “Climate Change” ?  Climate change is an indirect factor with long-term effects  Client isn’t interested and there’s nothing to disclose  Non-professional or non-technical audiences How important is it?
  • 96.
    How to SayIt Extreme events resonate. “We’re seeing more damage from extreme rain events, so this would be a good time to invest in a larger culvert”
  • 97.
    How to SayIt Be specific.  Climate change is too vague. “It would be good to increase species diversity in this stand sooner rather than later so you have more options in the future. This means we may need to consider larger gaps.”
  • 98.
    How to SayIt List several reasons  List climate change as one of many reasons. “This harvest method will increase the amount of structure in the forest, which will improve habitat for many bird species, as well as establish new seedlings for the future forest.
  • 99.
    In Plans Climate changesection (template text available)  Climate change & carbon required elements in Forest Stewardship Plans  Introduce idea  Identify climate impacts of greatest concern Some examples: www.forestadaptation.org/hill-robert www.forestadaptation.org/buffambrook www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake www.forestadaptation.org/suchovsky
  • 100.
    In Plans Stand-level descriptions orprescriptions  Identify specific concerns or issues  Make connections to proposed management Some examples: www.forestadaptation.org/northwoods-center www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake
  • 101.
    In Plans Appendices  Additionaldetails  Adaptation Workbook worksheets Some examples: www.forestadaptation.org/hill-robert www.forestadaptation.org/carolinelake