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![”The door is closing,” Fatih Birol,
chief economist at the
International Energy Agency,
said. ”I am very worried – if we
don't change direction now on
how we use energy, we will end up
beyond what scientists tell us is
the minimum [for safety]. The
door will be closed forever.”
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SPREAD 2050: Scenario Descriptions
The document describes four possible future scenarios for sustainable lifestyles in 2050. The scenarios are constructed within two dimensions: whether technology is pandemic or endemic, and whether society is governed by meritocratic or human-centric principles. One scenario depicts a society called "The Singular Super Elite" where sustainable lifestyles are driven as market opportunities by a few individuals with high skills, globally-applicable business models dominate, and everything has a price determined by meritocratic values.
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SPREAD 2050: Scenario Descriptions
- 2. Space of opportunities Spa ce of Core opport unities vision Usual future perspective Carbon budget Peak oil Now Now 2050 2050
- 3. ”The door isclosing,” Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, said. ”I am very worried – if we don't change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever.” 9.11.2011
- 4. Space of opportunities Usualfuture perspective Now 2050 Spa ce of Core Future opport unities vision perspective with system boundaries Carbon budget Peak oil Now 2050
- 5.
- 6. Our 2-day workshopwill build and narrate 4 possible future scenarios within these system boundaries: The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons Local Loops Happy Communities
- 7. Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, unexpected angles and redefine their professional and and solutions in society are globally applicable leisure identities. business models. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. Meritocratic society Human-centrism Local loops Happy Communities The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
- 8. Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human- centrism Endemic technology FROM SPREAD 2050: | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Promising practices + Delphi + Baseline report
- 9. ratic ciety Local loops Meritocracy The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Human- Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare centrism Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources Endemic created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic Endemic technology READ Sustainable lifestyles 2050 technology Technology Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050
- 10. Start here! Starting point for your alternative futures The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies. future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are: scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Technology is either pandemic or endemic. future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed. The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic. We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre- sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how. Pandemic Pandemic technology Technology Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons Human- Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Meritocracy able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, centrism unexpected angles and redefine their professional and and solutions in society are globally applicable leisure identities. business models. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social Endemic and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. atic iety
- 11. Pandemic technology Meritocracy Human- centrism Endemic technology | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050
- 12. Meritocracy The Singular Super Elite Hum cent The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future se able lifestyles as the market opportunity of t Innovation is driven by the few with meritab and solutions in society are globally applica business models. Everything has a price and a business model. Th operates within one techno-economic system, w Endemic standardized meters of performance. Society is and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading tec and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable l sible. technology Meritocratic society Local loops The world is build bottom-up by the best engine Global interaction between people is mediated, n Some institutions – such as science – remain glo Different areas command different economic and tech 8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 systems, but are only connected through elites and in In addition, science dominates global structures. All a their own combination of influential professional grou professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the envir agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most o is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical con created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles.
- 13. ritocracy Governing the Commons Human- Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and centrism leisure identities. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- Endemic aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social technology and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. Human-centrism Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare state where everyone has a place and way of being useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. nable lifestyles 2050 If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.
- 14. how. Meritocracy Hu A meritocratic society circles around profes- A hu sional skills. The most commercially valu- ening Pandemic Human- able professional skills are engines of the Both + Meritocracy economy. Holders of those professions are Every being paid accordingly. Policies and struc- to do technology centrism tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes- sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You mem famil als. T do only what you’re really good at. impro appr Human- Endemic tion, cy what Pandemic technology centrism The Singular Super Elite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- technologythe Commons Endemic technolog Governing Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. The tools, infrastructures, and solutions we Communities with a strong bond can shape society from Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, unexpected angles and redefine their professional and technology harnesses and grown locally: and solutions in society are globally applicable tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local Endemic leisure identities. business models. tions rule technology. Where there is woo Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale globallogs – where days are extremely ho built of projects. Clear bound- 8| technology operates within one techno-economic system, with highly SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on in tents. The corpus of global science an standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a applications are highly local. is wide, yet wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in efficiency and innovations ga is driven by creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. thinking locally. Meritocratic society Human-centrism Local loops Happy Communities Counting Backwards Workshop 24 The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
- 15. The Singular SuperElite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this centu Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. Everything has a price and a business model. The humank operates within one techno-economic system, with highly standardized meters of performance. Society is transpare and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is op and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles p sible. It makes sense to pay someone 10 000 times more than someone less productive graduated from the same school – Marc Zuckerberg
- 16. The Singular SuperElite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this centu I must work around the clocby the fewthe best Innovation is driven k. I am with meritable skills, eoand solutionsorld – Finnish brain surgeon brain surg n in the w in society are globally applicable business models. should has a price and a business model. The humank Everything A good engineer operates within one techno-economic system, with highly – Finnis meters ician not iron their shirtstandardizedh politof performance. Society is transpare and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is op and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles p sible. It makes sense to pay someone 10 000 times more than someone less productive graduated from the same school – Marc Zuckerberg
- 17. The Singular SuperElite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future Society will need to reward those who give more than they take. see s able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this The pressure on the welfare state will be too great. Innovation is driven by the few with meritable s Well-being business is growing. people will sought after and solutions in society are globally applicable happiness and better life and pay more for it. business models. A few large corporations run the global food chains. They have a long strategic a Everything has a price and a business model. The h pproach and they understand that unhealthy food will reduce their market size. operates within one techno-economic system, with standardized meters of performance. Society is tran We will need norms and legislation set by politicians. and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Dat and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading techn and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifes Meat is not necessary for people. It has become very expensive luxury good, sible. most people do not have it as often as twice a week. Finland produces meat but for export purposes. c y
- 18. The Singular SuperElite The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see s able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this Innovation is driven by the few with meritable s and solutions in society are globally applicable business models. Everything has a price and a business model. The h operates within one techno-economic system, with standardized meters of performance. Society is tran and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Dat and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading techn and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifes sible. c y
- 19. Pandemic + Human- Meritocracy technology centrism Human- Endemic Pandemic Meritocracy technology The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable centrism technology Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. business models. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on Endemic standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- 8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. technology sible. Meritocratic society Human-centrism Local loops Happy Communities The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological 8| systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have their own combination of influential professional groups. Local If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
- 20. Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. Our problems are man-made, therefore they may be solved by man. And man can be a s big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings – Happy Communities JFK
- 21. Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are Do not pray for easy lives. All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Pray to be stronger men. of Berlin. And therefore, as a free man, I take Communities with a strong bond can shape society from pride in the words "Ich bin ein Berliner!" unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. Efforts and courage are not enough without purpose and direction. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- I look forward to a great future for and leisurea future in which aries of work America - have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- our country will match its military strength with our moral nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of restraint, its wealth with our wisdom, its power with our purpose. interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. Our problems are man-made, therefore they may be solved by man. And man can be a s big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings – Happy Communities JFK
- 22. Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. Happy Communities
- 23. Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are Behaviour change due formed based on personal and to increased global solidarity interests, values, and motives. awareness of the need Communities with a strong technological innovation from for sustainable development, bond can shape society unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities. Communities of interest to share knowledge. We will need to be investing heavily in transport infrastructures as people become increasingly interconnected. to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everyone has something can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies canthat most of our most mundane activities productive. already underway, of I believe make even the major technological innovations are There is a wide array and while these will become more universally available, we will be relying more interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social andand more on human interactions and relationships technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. The interconnectedness of the global community requires an increase in global solidarity and appreaciation of unity in diversity Happy Communities As cheap labour no longer exists anywhere in the world.
- 24. Start here! Starting point for your alternative futures The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies. StartSingular Super Elite The here! Pandemic technology future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are: scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Governing the Commons Technology is either pandemic or endemic. future landscapes through which the scenarios are Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are constructed. The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- The governing principle of the society is either personal interests, values, and motives. formed based on able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. human-centric or meritocratic. Starting point for your alternative futures Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and business models. We believe that sustainable societies are achievable leisure identities. he goal of the SPREAD 2050Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind Counting backwards These landscapes all the fouron two fundamental Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills within are based alternative future landscapes (pre- can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on system, with highly operates within one techno-economic assumptions of variables that define societies. task is of work andout have been replaced by spending time on sented on the next opening). Your aries to find leisure standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent uture of sustainablethings have become measurable and most things have a price. The assumptions are: and most lifestyles. In order to make these Data is open how. micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of cenarios differ from each every level we have defined four other, increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social A mer and competition on Technology is either pandemic or endemic.innovations for sustainable lifestyles. and technological sional uture landscapes through which the scenarios are sible. Pandemic onstructed. Meritocratic The governing principle of the society is either able p society Human-centrism human-centric or meritocratic. econo being technology We believe that sustainable societies are achievable tures Local loops Happy Communities within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre- sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out work The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare sions. how. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new A meritocratic onl do soc innovations just like anybody else. sional skills. The Human- Different areas command different economic and technological Pandemic systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- able professional Meritocracy In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. economy. Holders centrism professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People being paid accor technology agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources tures of society a created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic work of the lead technology sions. Division of l do only what you’r 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11 Endemic Human- Meritocracy + technology centrism
- 25. Local loops The world is build bottom-u Global interaction between p Some institutions – such as Different areas command differ systems, but are only connecte In addition, science dominates To eliminate the concept of waste means to design things – products, packaging, and systems – fromof influe their own combination the professional guilds are therefore that waste innovation very beginning on the understanding both the does not exist agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the wo Cradle-to-Cradle is produced through local resources. Understanding
- 26. Local loops Elderlyhouses turned into future "business parks". Workforce and expertice is The world is build bottom-u there, capital and business intelligence is only needed. Microcurrencies shape to form microsocieties.interaction between p Global Old people want to remain active both sociallyinstitutions – and use the Some and in terms of work such as skills they have developed earlier. a re-awakening of the desire for a sense of community. Different areas command differ The state is a less secure source of support, so elderly are relying systems, butnot others. on themselves and are only connecte scarcity of resources, communities that grow their own food anddominates In addition, science energy their own combination of influe End of the oil and coal era, big investments to local renewable energy resources. Decentralised electricity production become cheaper and more secure than centralized fossile-based production in therefore both the innovation professional guilds are 2020. Link to local/micro entrepreneurs ... Common and shared rarely to the wo agent. Local material flows circulate goods owned by small local communities: high efficiencylocal resources.on demand. is produced through appliances. Production Understanding
- 27. Local loops The world is build bottom-u Global interaction between p Some institutions – such as Different areas command differ systems, but are only connecte In addition, science dominates their own combination of influe professional guilds are therefore both the innovation agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the wo is produced through local resources. Understanding
- 28. Start here! Starting point for your alternative futures The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards These landscapes are based on two fundamental Start here! workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on assumptions of variables that define societies. future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these The assumptions are: scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four Technology is either pandemic or endemic. future landscapes through which the Pandemic scenarios are constructed. technology The governing principle of the society is either The Singular Super Elite point for your alternative futures Commons Starting Governing the human-centric or meritocratic. Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- We believe that sustainable societiesvalues, achievable formed based on personal interests, are and motives. The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwardsthe fourThese with a strong bond can shape society from two fundamental able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. within all Communities landscapes landscapes (pre- alternative future are based on Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on the next opening). redefine their professional and out societies. and solutions in society are globally applicable sented on unexpected angles and of variables that define assumptionsYour task is to find leisure identities. business models. future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these how. The assumptions are: Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and ascenarios The humankind business model. differ from each other, we have defined four can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly Technology is either pandemic or endemic. standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent through which the scenarios are future landscapes aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of society is either The governing principle of the and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open constructed. Pandemic and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- human-centric or meritocratic. and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. We believe that sustainable societiesHuman-centrism are achievab technology Meritocratic society within all the four alternative future landscapes (p sented on the next opening). Your task is to find o Local loops Happy Communities how. The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Human- Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new Pandemic innovations just like anybody else. Meritocracy Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- centrism In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have technology ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology Endemic + Human- 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11 Meritocracy technology centrism
- 29. Happy Communities Sharing is caring. whatis the is all level of is giving So, This this next about the welfare state where everyonemore power and control to people has a place and way of being useful. 12-year-olds or their lives can come up with new improve the elderly and their innovations just like anybody else. communities. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. We need people to act more responsibly, because if you take any problem in our country and you just think: ‘Well, what can the governmentBackwards Workshop it out?’, that 2011 in Tuu Counting do to sort 24th – 25th November is only ever going to be half of the answer. – David Cameron
- 30. Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare state where everyone has a place and way of being Old people want to remain active both socially and in terms of work and use skills they have developed earlier. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new Traditional democracy has nearelse. innovations just like anybody demolished. Decision making is taken to the neighborhood level. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. technological innovation empowering more sharing collaborativeeveryone to allowing distributed local Societies provide possibilities for services and give their input. production. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Fulfillment and joy is created out of relationships rather than materials. People want to feel that they belong somewhere. They do not want to waste their savings in Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuu Counting expensive (private) housing and transport Energy will be scarce and expensive: more local food, so less expensive.
- 31. Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare state where everyone has a place and way of being useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuu
- 32. Pandemic technology The Singular Super Elite Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain- formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, unexpected angles and redefine their professional and and solutions in society are globally applicable leisure identities. business models. Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound- operates within one techno-economic system, with highly aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech- and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos- and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles. sible. Meritocratic society Human-centrism Local loops Happy Communities The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. state where everyone has a place and way of being Some institutions – such as science – remain global. useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else. Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar- In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. their own combination of influential professional groups. Local Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles. form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles. Endemic technology 10 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 11
- 33. And remember! Oursustainable system boundaries of 2050 1. Environmental boundaries 2. Social boundaries Current Boundary Current Earth-system process Human development Goal 2050 value value Value Climate change Human Developed Index Atmospheric carbon dioxide 387 350 (measure of life expectancy, 0,63 0,77 concentration (ppm by volume) literacy, education and Biodiversity loss standards of living) Extinction rate (number of >100 10 Years of education in less species per million per year) developed countries 6 8 Biochemical (average years) Anthropogenic nitrogen Life expectancy 121 35 70 >75 removed from the atmosphere (global average) (millions of tonnes per year) GINI coefficient Land use (Measure of the inequality: Land surface converted to 11,7 15 a value 0 expressing total 0,7 0,55 cropland (percent) equality and a value 1 Fresh water maximal inequality.) Global human consumption 2600 4000 Global population 7 8,9 of water (km3/yr) (billion) Ozone layer Stratospheric ozone 283 276 concentration (Dobson units)