Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs:How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet

Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Global Metropolitan Studies, UCB EMBARQ/CAI/World Bank 16 January 2009 Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs: How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

SCHIPPER ADB June 2008 Counting Carbs and Decarbs Contents What Do We Need to Know And When Do We Need to Know It? What We Need To Know and How Well – as They Change? The rise in CO2 emissions from transport: Inevitable? Desirable? ASIF – Components of GHG emissions from transport Some existing portrayals – aggregate to bottom up What if We Were Saving Carbs? How Would We Know What is Carbon Saving, Anyway? Diesel and Biofuels- Two Troubling Examples You Cannot Master What You Can’t Measure

Asia: lumbering into modernity SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

Key Question: Is this path of motorization good? Inevitable or avoidable? Source: EMBARQ Motorization and Economic Growth: The China Syndrome?

WORLD ENERGY AND OIL USE: THE RISING ROLE OF TRANSPORT

WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT Roughly 25% of Global CO2 Emissions

CO2 Emissions from Road Transport Looks Hopeless to Stop? SCHIPPER ADB June 2008 Source: IEA

Saving and De-Carbing A Broader Transport Perspective Avoidance – Carbon is a 2 nd tier Consideration Land Use: Building a city or country differently (Singapore, Curitiba, ?) Internalizing costs at an early stage of development Shifting the balance away from high-carbon transport Co-benefits of Transport, Urban Dvpt Strategies Bus Rapid Transit and other improvements to transport system Congestion pricing and other strategies to reduce externalities Improved fuel use in pursuance of lower air pollutant emissions Direct Approach – Mitigation by Tech, Operations Technology to reduce fuel use/km with improved traffic flow Fuels with lower carbon/unit of energy Improved vehicle or system utilization, modest restraint in km Saving Carbon Today Important Avoidance Tomorrow by far Largest Potential

How Many Cities or Countries Have an INTEGRATED Approach to Transport/CO2

“ ASIF” Decomposition Goal: Quantifying Changes in Components SCHIPPER ADB June 2008 Lesson : See and Attack All Components of Transport, Know the Numbers Well Enough to Measure Changes Air dispersion model; atmospheric chemistry; exposure and health effects. |Global CO2

Counting Carbs: How Well Do You Need To Know? Well Enough to measure year on year changes A – Total Distance Traveled- Accurately enough to make BAU projections of distanced traveled Well enough to understand how much different vehicles are used Ability to see impacts of policies like congestion pricing, fuel price changes S – Modal Split/Passengers or tonnes/vehicle Well enough to discern loads on different streets, transit routes Well enough to tell trip distance by mode and purpose Well enough to measure emissions/passenger-km by mode and vehicle Vehicle or Modal Fuel Intensity Well enough to distinguish fuel intensity of different vehicle brands, types Well enough to estimate new vs existing fuel intensities Well enough to see impacts of traffic and driving behavior on emissions Decarbonizing Fuel Choices – CO2 and Local Emissions Well enough to know CO2 upstream by full fuel cycle analysis Well enough to measure changes in pollutants before/after controls Well enough to detect fuel adulteration (“6 th commandment”) SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

Counting Carbs: What Do You Need To Know? Allies and Institutions for Sustainable Transport A – Total Distance Traveled- National and Local Surveys Measure overall performance of transport system - Measure direct and indirect costs and revenues Monitor mobility of people and goods S – Modal Split – National and Local Surveys Performance of each mode (distance, revenue, costs) Service levels (speed, reliability, customer satisfaction) Externalities from different modes (air pollution, congestion, noise, safety etc.) Vehicle or Modal Fuel Intensity – Limited Measurements Energy security, performance of alternative fuels Validation of fuel efficiency standards Performance of advanced vehicles (hybrids etc) Decarbonizing Fuel Choices - Monitoring performance of alternative fuels Fuel-cycle analyses (FFCA/LCA) expose hidden fossil fuel inputs Some inputs (indirect land use/soil changes) hard to measure SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

When Do You Need To Know? Before – Diagnosis of Problems Where is the urban system and its transport headed? Traffic flow, time in congestion, accidents and personal security Pollutants from various kinds of vehicles, fuel efficiency, CO2 emissions After – Evaluation of Policies and Measures Changes in parameters above well before problems arise Comparison with estimates of “what would have happened”, i.e., BAU Measurement of unintended good and bad side effects Always Land uses and other parameters of urban development Evolution of vehicle and fuel technologies Ambient air quality, accident rates (particularly NMT) Impact of transport costs on different social groups, regions SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

Saving and De-Carbing A Broader Transport Perspective Avoidance – Carbon is a 2 nd tier Consideration Where is a country or sub-national or urban region headed? How are land-uses and transport patterns (people, freight) evolving? What policies would change the direction, how can results be monitored Co-benefits of Transport, Urban Dvpt Strategies Measure time in transport, local emissions, accidents, fuel use in “ZI” Monetize the variables, compare options, to get costs/benefits Compare CO2 benefit with other costs/benefits Direct Approach – Mitigation by Tech, Operations Measure emissions before/after (i.e., with, without) mitigation Measure possible rebounds or other unanticipated effects Estimates impacts on non-project participants or vehicles Metric of Changes is Emissions With/Without, Not Before/After Policy or Institutional Change

Dieselization : Opportunity or Trap Monitoring Shows Little Savings in Europe Source:` official national data

Validating Opportunities in Other Modes Urban Buses – High Speed, Low Emissions Articulated buses running in dedicated BRT lines (Mex City) Parallel hybrid drive trains using diesel propulsion (MC) Which minibuses etc to eliminate? (EMBARQ Queretaro Study) Trucking (Intercity and Delivery) Improving efficiency of trucks - important in Asia Improve freight logistics Reduce growth in vkt run, particularly empty running Rail? Building or strengthening freight networks - uncertain Consider low-cost, medium speed intercity rail (tilt trains) Improve intermodal access around rail facilities to boost usage Important to Focus on All Components of Transport System

It’s Not Just Before/After It’s With/Without Policies Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over time After J. Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico and M Cordeiro, EMBARQ Time Emissions With & with-out Intervention difference Before & after project Baseline from counterfactual Actual development with intervention Widening gap between baseline and actual

It’s Not Just Before/After Doesn’t Always Work Out Dynamic Base-line & Project-line over time After J. Rogers, Trafalgar SA, Mexico and M Cordeiro, EMBARQ Time Emissions With & with-out Intervention difference Before & after project Baseline from counterfactual Actual development with intervention One-time offset Backfire?

Saving Carbon How Would You Know? Avoidance – Carbon is a 2 nd tier Influence Comparisons of vehicle use, motorization, travel/freight flows Direct surveying of travel, vehicle use as function of location Meaningless to use “cost of saved carbon” indicator Co-benefits of Transport, Urban Dvpt Strategies Estimate with/without projects using well calibrated models Monitor traffic, vehicle characteristics, fuel sales etc Difficult to construct “cost of saved carbon” indicator Direct Approach – Mitigation by Tech, operations Measure before/after in vehicles, fuel content, etc. by careful monitoring Estimate with/without from traffic measurements and macro indicators Possible to construct cost of saved carbon/fuel indicator Mitigation, Co-benefits Impacts relatively Easy To Measure Large Avoidance Impacts Easy to See, but Hard to Measure

Broader Approach to Co-Benefits Carbon Benefits Small Compared to Others

Minimum and Ideal Requirements (ASIF Parameters) A and S (Total Travel and Freight Volume) Vehicles, yearly distances Average loads by vehicle (people, tonnes) Cross check with travel survey every five years I (Fuel Intensity) Estimated intensity of each vehicle/fuel combination Test values of new vehicles, weighted by sales Average load factors F (emissions factors, etc) Typical driving cycles Numbers of vehicles/distances by fuels Approx. local emissions coefficients

SCHIPPER DRAFT Costs Certainty levels Validation of Key Policies Broad Goals for improved traffic, lower emissions Philanthropy: Developer or Mayor Brag? Cost Depends on Desired Certainty What is Certainty Worth If Climate and Transport At Stake? Real Options Analysis/Co-benefits Choice (CO2, noise, safety) MEASUREMENT AND ACCURACY? You Get What You Pay For: Make Sure you Get What You Need After Nancy Kete, EMBARQ

Proposed Data/Indicators Architecture The Way Forward National vs Local Estimates Use consistent models and estimating approaches Coordinate updating, boundary issues etc for consistency Focus on regional differences (income, topography, weather) Coordinating Data and Analysis Consistent time series and coordination among countries End to confidentiality of multi-, bi-lateral sponsored work Private, public, academic, consultant experts work together Coordination Among Agencies – “Yes We Can Afford” Information valuable to many private, public institutions Careful sharing of resources to lower costs Streamlined data collection with new technologies

Proposed Institutional Architecture What should we do in terms of data collection and data management and how to organize this? Public Sector (Including IGO, Banks, etc.) Support long-term policy data requirements with laws, $$ Create capacity through Universities and education system Coordinate data hitch-hiking through relationship therapy Private Sector – Your future depends on this Identify own needs and what can be shared Work with authorities on labeling, monitoring, evaluation Support data, analysis, evaluation with real $$ Research Sector – Key Questions Stay ahead of the other sectors: What will we need to know? How can we know more often, for less money? How can we better underestand with we know and don’t know?

Measuring Changes and Impacts Household impacts of transport costs Impacts of pricing on mobility, Vehicles revenues Measure elasticites Measure success In a timely way Policy Institutions Technology Infrastructure Operation Measure impacts of investments

Schipper ADB Transport Week Thanks Lee Schipper [email_address]

Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs: How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet

More Related Content

What's hot

Similar to Counting Future Carbs and Decarbs: How to Know You are on a Carbon Diet

More from WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities

Recently uploaded