Download as PDF, PPTX
![Plan Via Bifurcation
Chop tasks up into
smaller tasks
If you’re unsure what
duration to put, break
it down more
If longer than
minimum size, repeat
#360iDev
@CARLBRWN
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATurtles_all_the_way_down.png
Figure By Pelf at en.wikipedia [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons 2014](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/darkartsoftwareestimation-360idev2014-140902000013-phpapp02/75/Dark-Art-of-Software-Estimation-360iDev2014-33-2048.jpg)
![Plan Via Bifurcation
Chop tasks up into
smaller tasks
If you’re unsure what
duration to put, break
it down more
If longer than
minimum size, repeat
#360iDev
@CARLBRWN
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATurtles_all_the_way_down.png
Figure By Pelf at en.wikipedia [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons 2014](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/darkartsoftwareestimation-360idev2014-140902000013-phpapp02/75/Dark-Art-of-Software-Estimation-360iDev2014-35-2048.jpg)
![Probabilities
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ANormal_Distribution_PDF.svg
Figure By Inductiveload (self-made, Mathematica, Inkscape) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/darkartsoftwareestimation-360idev2014-140902000013-phpapp02/75/Dark-Art-of-Software-Estimation-360iDev2014-67-2048.jpg)
Uploaded byCarl Brown
Dark Art of Software Estimation 360iDev2014
The document discusses best practices for creating accurate software project estimates. It recommends estimating at the task level by breaking projects down into granular tasks. Thorough planning is important to generate reliable estimates. Other factors like team familiarity, task independence, and certainty of details can impact estimate quality. The document emphasizes that estimates are predictions and cannot predict the future with certainty.
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Dark Art of Software Estimation 360iDev2014
- 1. The Dark Artof Software Project Estimation Carl Brown 360iDev 2014 #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 2. The Dark Artof Software Project Estimation Carl Brown 360iDev 2014 #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 3. #ObBio Who theHell am I? Why the Hell should you listen to me? #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 4. Estimates Are Predictions Predicting the future is impossible If you think you can predict the future, why haven’t you won the lottery? Of course, that doesn’t stop people from trying… #360iDev @CARLBRWN Picture http://pixabay.com/en/lottery-lotto-toto-sphere-luck-146318/ 2014
- 5. QWERTYUIOP ASDFGHJKL ZXCVBNM 0123456789
- 9. YOU’RE NOT FOOLING ANYONE
- 10. Estimates Are Predictions Predicting the future is impossible If you think you can predict the future, why haven’t you won the lottery? Of course, that doesn’t stop people from trying… #360iDev @CARLBRWN Picture http://pixabay.com/en/lottery-lotto-toto-sphere-luck-146318/ 2014
- 11. Why Not JustSkip Estimates? Somebody has to pay for this It sucks to fail because you ran out of resources before you had a chance to ship #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/clock-time-euro-money-currency-77497/ 2014
- 13. NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
- 14. Why Not JustSkip Estimates? Somebody has to pay for this It sucks to fail because you ran out of resources before you had a chance to ship #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/clock-time-euro-money-currency-77497/ 2014
- 15. #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Failing to Estimate: …Gets you this… Pic: Office Space
- 16. Estimates Are OfVarying Quality Estimates can only be judged “Right" or “Wrong” in after project is over. But certain attributes make estimates “Better” or “Worse” and increase your odds #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/roulette-chips-casino-gambling-298029/ 2014
- 17. VARYING QUALITY !MEANS ! “THEY SUCK”
- 18. Estimates Are OfVarying Quality Estimates can only be judged “Right" or “Wrong” in after project is over. But certain attributes make estimates “Better” or “Worse” and increase your odds #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/roulette-chips-casino-gambling-298029/ 2014
- 19. #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 What Affects Quality? Granularity Familiarity Isolation Certainty
- 20. #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 What Affects Quality? Granularity Familiarity Isolation Certainty BINGO!!
- 21. Granularity: The Longerthe Estimate, the Greater the Error #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 22. This is NotAn Estimate Project Management 160 Hours Design 240 Hours Development 800 Hours Testing 320 Hours This is A Budget
- 23. Never Fight BSwith More BS All unsupported numbers are created equal #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/bulls-cattle-animals-fight-fighting-102764/ 2014
- 24. Never Fight BSwith More BS All unsupported numbers are created equal Equally bad #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/bulls-cattle-animals-fight-fighting-102764/ 2014
- 25. WHAT HE’S TRYING NOT TO SAY IS ! “BULLSHIT”
- 26. Never Fight BSwith More BS All unsupported numbers are created equal Equally bad Your “6 month” guess can’t compete with someone else’s “6 week” guess #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/bulls-cattle-animals-fight-fighting-102764/ 2014
- 27. Quality Estimates: Backedby Plans Plans are made of tasks Estimate the tasks, not the plan The Estimate for the project is the sum of the estimates for the tasks #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/map-navigation-geography-312213/ 2014
- 28. “But Planning isHARD!” It does, actually, require effort It gets easier with practice And it has other benefits #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/magic-cube-patience-games-puzzle-232276/ 2014
- 29. Planning is Time-Consuming The more you do it, the faster you get It’s often reasonable to expect to get paid for effort spent planning and estimating #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/clock-time-calendar-agenda-163202/
- 30. IT TAKES MUCH LESS TIME THAN FAILING
- 31. Planning is Time-Consuming The more you do it, the faster you get It’s often reasonable to expect to get paid for effort spent planning and estimating #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/clock-time-calendar-agenda-163202/
- 32. Start with Wireframes But don't end there There’s a lot more going on than what you see Don’t forget to estimate storage, network, search, etc etc #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-21978565/stock-photo-nighttime-view-of-an-iceberg-with-visible-underwater-surface.html 2014
- 33. Plan Via Bifurcation Chop tasks up into smaller tasks If you’re unsure what duration to put, break it down more If longer than minimum size, repeat #360iDev @CARLBRWN http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATurtles_all_the_way_down.png Figure By Pelf at en.wikipedia [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons 2014
- 34. BIFURCATION: THAT’S PRETENTIOUS ASSHOLE SPEAK FOR “SPLIT UP”
- 35. Plan Via Bifurcation Chop tasks up into smaller tasks If you’re unsure what duration to put, break it down more If longer than minimum size, repeat #360iDev @CARLBRWN http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ATurtles_all_the_way_down.png Figure By Pelf at en.wikipedia [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons 2014
- 36. Estimate Only ValidFor Given Scope Pic:- http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winchester_House_910px.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Winchester_House_910px.jpg
- 37. BY CRAZY PEOPLE HE MEANS ! “CLIENTS”
- 38. Estimate Only ValidFor Given Scope Pic:- http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Winchester_House_910px.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Winchester_House_910px.jpg
- 39. Plan One FeasibleImplementation It won’t necessarily be the one that gets implemented Tasks are likely to be different, but closer than a wild guess #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/lego-toys-children-play-build-169603/ 2014
- 40. #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Familiarity Have You Done This Before?
- 41. YOU HAVE 5 YEARS OF SWIFT EXPERIENCE, RIGHT?
- 43. MY SOURCES CAN’T SAY. THEY ARE ROFL
- 44. #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Familiarity Have You Done This Before?
- 45. Spikes to handleUnfamiliarity A “Spike” (in the Agile sense) is a time-boxed experiment intended to inform the project Think of it like a small, single-feature prototype on a deadline #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hewes_Family_Golden_Spike_at_the_California_State_Railroad_Museum.JPG#mediaviewer/ File:Hewes_Family_Golden_Spike_at_the_California_State_Railroad_Museum.JPG 2014
- 46. Isolation Can TasksBe Done in Parallel? #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 47. ISOLATION DOESN’T MEAN WORKING ALONE ON A SATURDAY
- 48. Architecture to IncreaseIsolation Then delay in one area won’t affect others The more interrelated they are, the more errors will propagate #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/xanten-columnar-greek-roman-279944/ 2014
- 49. Beware Merge HELL Storyboards/XIBs are not a large Dev Team’s friend AutoLayout Helps Somewhat #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/goats-animal-bock-billy-goat-173940/ 2014
- 50. Don’t Delay Integration #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofUvuQxJwlA 2014
- 51. Certainty When youknow everything you need to know #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 53. TERMINOLOGY UNCERTAIN PLEASE GET A CLUE
- 54. Certainty When youknow everything you need to know #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 55.
- 56.
- 57. Know Your Resources Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/tools-logo-work-equipment-pictorial-191794/
- 58. WHAT IF !FUCKINGBLOCK SYNTAX.COM ! GOES DOWN?
- 59. Know Your Resources Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/tools-logo-work-equipment-pictorial-191794/
- 60. Improving Requires Feedback You need to pay attention to how your estimates perform You should do a post-mortem at the end of each project …And Actually learn from it. #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://www.flickr.com/photos/proimos/4199675334/ 2014
- 61. Carl’s 4 EstimateQualities: Granularity Familiarity Isolation Certainty #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 62.
- 63. NOT JUST FOR SHOULDERS DURING THE 80s
- 64. UMM.. GO ASK YOUR PARENTS
- 65.
- 66. Hofstadter's law Italways takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
- 67. Probabilities http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ANormal_Distribution_PDF.svg FigureBy Inductiveload (self-made, Mathematica, Inkscape) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
- 68. Each Task Estimateis Probably Wrong And likely not in your favor 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution β=3 η = 12 γ = 0.2
- 69. Each Task Estimateis Probably Wrong And likely not in your favor 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution β=3 η = 12 γ = 0.2
- 70. Each Task Estimateis Probably Wrong And likely not in your favor 3-Parameter Weibull Distribution β=3 η = 12 γ = 0.2
- 71.
- 72. Possible Impossible Predicting the Future
- 73. Possible Impossible Predicting the Future SEostfitmwaatrieng
- 74. Possible Impossible Predicting the Future SEostfitmwaatrieng Your Skills
- 75. Possible Impossible Predicting the Future SEostfitmwaatrieng Your Skills
- 76. Possible Impossible Predicting the Future Your ?Skills SEostfitmwaatrieng
- 77. If There’s Really No Winning...
- 78.
- 79. Pic: http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-111067073/ TheOnly Way to Win Is To Cheat
- 80. So, How DoYou Cheat?
- 81. So, How DoYou Cheat?
- 82. So, How DoYou Cheat?
- 83. You Already Havea Plan Big added bonus of making a plan for the estimate is you then have a plan to manage from The tasks will likely vary, but the overall schedule should be trackable #360iDev @CARLBRWN Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/directory-signs-north-sea-emden-410867/ 2014
- 84. Good Plans DocumentScope Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/sign-symbol-rock-signs-traffic-40711/ #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 85. PROJECT ON SCHEDULE: WATCH FOR FALLING IQs
- 86. Good Plans DocumentScope Pic: http://pixabay.com/en/sign-symbol-rock-signs-traffic-40711/ #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014
- 87. When This Happens It’s Time to Adjust
- 88. Manage Project toGet Back On Track May Require Customer Cooperation With an Adversarial Customer, Estimates are the Least of Your Problems Only Possible if you were Close Enough to Start With Pic: Portal by Valve
- 89. ...And then Suddenly,Magically, You Were Right All Along
- 90. AND YOU DIDN’T EVEN HAVE TO SACRIFICE A CHICKEN
- 91. ALTHOUGH IT COULDN’T HURT TO TRY
- 92. Carl Brown Book: AppAccomplished.com Twitter: @CarlBrwn Email: [email protected] #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Thank You
- 93. Carl Brown Book: AppAccomplished.com Twitter: @CarlBrwn Email: [email protected] #360iDev @CARLBRWN 2014 Thank You