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DEMOGRAPHY UPDATED NEETPG FROM COMMUNITY MEDICINE
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- 2. INTRODUCTION Demography is scientificstudy of human populations. Depends on Size : total number of persons in given population. Distribution : Arrangement of entire population with respect to the geographical areas at a given point of time.
- 3. Composition : Distributionof given population with respect to age and sex. Change : Increase or decrease in the size of the given population due to fertility, mortality and migration.
- 4. 5 DEFINITION “Scientific study ofcomposition and distribution of human population and changes in its size and composition over different time periods”
- 5. DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES keyevents and patterns that influence the structure (size, composition, and distribution) of populations over time.
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- 10. 12 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Stage 1:developing countries High birth rates & Large number of deaths from preventable causes Stable population Stage 2: high fertility, poor social development, poor access to health services & contraception- increased births Improved nutrition and better food supply- deaths decrease Population spurt Stage 3: Fall in birth rate but population growth + due to large no of persons in reproductive age group from previous generations Stage 4: fall in DR & BR Stable population Good economic & social development
- 11. Demographic Transition Model PreTransition (Stage 1) -high birth and death rates, -small population growth -disease/malnutrition = high infant mortality rates, -low life expectancy, -common in some developing nations Early Transition (Stage 2) -high birth rates / low death rates, -population EXPLOSION! -death rates fall due to medical advance, vaccine/sewage/ drinking water systems), -most developed countries reached this stage during the 1800’s Middle Transition (Stage 3) -low death rates / rapidly declining birth rates, -social programs, industrialization and urbanization eliminate need for large families Late Transition (Stage 4) -rates of natural increase have stabilized, -low birth and death rates = low growth, -changing role of women + family planning Future Transition (Stage 5) -birth rate drops below death rate, -long life expectancy
- 12. Time Stage 1 Stage2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. THE CLASSIC STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
- 13. 15 1921-THE YEAR OFTHE GREAT DIVIDE Pre 1921-Population growth low/stagnant(stage 1) Post 1921- considerable & continuous increase + 1901 - 1911: 5.9% increase 1911 - 1921: 0.39% decrease 1921-1931: 11.1% increase 1931 - 1941: 14% increase 1941-1951: 13.5% increase 07/07/2014
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- 15. Population Pyramids Early Expanding -widebase (high birth rate) -decrease towards the top (very short life expectancy) -few, if any countries are currently classified in the early expanding stage -note the date is 1985!
- 16. Expanding -very wide base(high birth rate) -the cohort groups begin to enlarge or increase towards the middle of pyramid -this widening comes from: improved medical care, modern hygiene and improved diets. -results in a decreased death rate
- 17. Stable -birth rate fallsbecause of changing attitudes towards family and family sizes -education, changing societal attitudes and economic factors can cause this decline -medical care continues to improve so the death rate continues to fall
- 18. declining -birth rate reachesvery low levels (women employed in workforce, child-rearing is expensive, contraceptive programs are successful, small families are encouraged by the state) -death rate continues to decrease -life expectancy rises.
- 19. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITION (ET) Long-term shiftin mortality and disease patterns where pandemics of infection replaced by non- communicable and man-made diseases . As rate of infectious diseases goes down, the population ages, one sees an emergence of non- communicable disease
- 20. Accidents Diabetes(NID) Coronary heart Dis. Cancer (LaPorte, R., 2003)
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- 23. DEPENDENCY RATIO Children0-14 years: Young age dependency. Population >65 years age: Old age dependency. Population between 15-64 years age: Working class
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- 26. CARRYING CAPACITY Canthe ecological habitat of a country sustain its current population Maximum population size of a particular species that a given part of the environment can maintain indefinitely.
- 27. OVERSHOOTING POPULATION • Carryingcapacity is not supporting the current population. • Population growing larger than the carrying capacity of its environment and uses resources faster than generated, degrades the environment. • Produces waste products faster than the environment can absorb without being degraded.
- 28. POPULATION DENSITY Ratiobetween the total population and surface area.The current population density of India in 2022 is 427.90 people per square kilometer.It has increased by 0.95% from 2021.
- 29. LIFE EXPECTANCY Itcomes under vital statistics. The average number of years a person of that age may expect to live according to the prevalent mortality pattern in that country. One of the best indicators of a country's development level and overall population health status. India's current life expectancy is 69.7. India targets to achieve an expectancy of 72.6 years by 2026. Helps in calculating HDI.
- 30. FERTILITY RELATED STATISTICS: Crude Birth rate:
- 31. Baby Boom:Dramatic increase in fertility rates and in the absolute number of births in U.S , Canada, Australia during the period of world war II. Baby Bust: Rapid decline in U.S fertility rates to record low levels during the period immediately after the baby boom.
- 32. General fertility rate(GFR):
- 33. General Marital fertilityrate (GMFR):
- 34. Age specificfertility rate (ASFR):
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- 36. Total fertilityrate(TFR):
- 37. GRR (GROSS REPRODUCTIONRATE) GRR is the total number of girls a woman will have throughout her reproductive age, considering the current age-specific fertility pattern and without mortality. GRR is given by TFR for girl children.
- 38. NET REPRODUCTION RATE No. of daughters a newborn girl will bear during her lifetime assuming fixed age specific fertility and mortality rate. Important demographic indicator NRR = 1.5 NRR of 1= 2 child norm NRR<1= population below replacement level NRR=1 can be achieved if CPR >60%
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- 40. Indicators Total RuralUrban Crude birth rate 19.5 21.6 16.4 General fertility rate 67.0 73.1 53.7 Total fertility rate 2.0 2.2 1.6 Gross reproductio n rate 0.9 1.0 0.8 General marital fertility rate 108.3 118 88.5 Total marital fertility rate 5.2 5.4 4.7
- 41. NUPTIALITY Marriage asa population phenomenon, including the rate at which it occurs ,the characteristics of persons united in marriage, and dissolution of such unions(through divorce, separation , widowhood, and annulment). It includes: 1.Marriage Rate 2.Median Age at First Marriage 3.Divorce Rate
- 42. ZERO POPUTATION GROWTH Births + Immigration =Deaths + Emigration A young population will continue to grow for a few generations as the large proportion of youth move into and through their childbearing years.
- 43. REPLACEMENT- LEVEL FERTILITY Levelof fertility at which women in the same cohort have exactly enough daughters to replace themselves in the population NRR of 1=Replacement level
- 44. URBANIZATION Proportion ofurban population in India 1901 : 10.84% 1991 : 25.72% 2001 : 27.80% 2023: 36.4% Factors attributed to urbanization : Natural growth (through births) Migration from villages for employment Attraction of better living conditions Availability of social services
- 45. POPULATION EXPLOSION (POPULATION BOMB) Expressions used to describe 20th century world wide trend of rapid population growth resulting from a world birth rate much higher than the world death rate.
- 46. 48 RELATION BETWEEN GROWTHRATE AND POPULATION Rating Annual rate of growth (%) Number of years required for the population to double the size Stationary Population No Growth Slow Growth < 0.5 > 139 Moderate Growth 0.5-1.0 139-70 Rapid Growth 1.0-1.5 70-47 Very rapid Growth 1.5-2.0 47-35 “Explosive” Growth 2.0-2.5 35-28 “Explosive” Growth 2.5-3.0 28-23 “Explosive” Growth 3.0-3.5 23-20 “Explosive” Growth 3.5-4.0 20-18
- 47. REASONS FOR POPULATION EXPLOSION HighBirth rates Universality of marriage Early Marriage Early Puberty Low standard of living Low level of Literacy Traditional customs and habits Absence of Family Planning practice
- 48. HAZARDS OF POPULATION EXPLOSION: Unemployment and underemployment Aggravates the problems of atmospheric, water, soil pollution. Food shortage Water famine Adversely affects the genetic endowment of the future generations. Over crowding. etc…….
- 49. POPULATION CONTROL: The two broadstrategies for stabilization of population that are implemented simultaneously: The non birth control measures The birth control and spacing methods.
- 50. It is thepractice of limiting population increase, usually by reducing birth rate. It may be voluntary or out of religious ideology, but in some times and places is government mandated. DEFINITION
- 51. General measures: a)Education b)Empowermentof women c)Emigration d)Political measures e) Globalisation Specific measures: a) Family Planning b)Abortion c)Abstinence Miscellaneous: a)Birth control vaccine b)Infanticide CONTROL MEASURES
- 52. The onlysocially & psychologically acceptable means. In the Indian context, designed for students to explain; 1.Consequences of unchecked population 2.Benefits of small family norm 3.Economics, sociology & statistics of PG 4.Its relation to levels of living. o The content of population education is influenced by specific national situation, political & educational goals EDUCATION
- 53. Right to controlown reproductive health Emphasizing the women’s role in minimizing the size of the family They should not be deliberately forced to have child by the husband or any other Family member. Empowerment of women
- 54. Classical example- China’sOne Child Policy Financial Incentives or Disincentives at level of: Central Govt- Increments, Holidays State Govt- Green cards,Cash Awards Making & Enforcement of Laws, Legislations. Formulation of Policies- Domestic & Foreign foreign POLITICAL MEASURES
- 55. FAMILY PLANNING Broadly groupedinto 2 classes: I) Spacing Methods - Barrier Methods - Intrauterine devices - Hormonal methods - Post -conception methods - Miscellaneous II) Terminal Methods - Male sterilization - Female Sterilization
- 56. NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 2000 Population policies intend to decrease the birth rate or growth rate 1st NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY OF INDIA – April 1976 NATIONAL HEALTH POLICY 1983 – Set long term demographic goals of achieving NRR of 1 by 2000
- 57. NEW NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY2010 Address the unmet needs for basic reproductive and child health services, supplies and infrastructure. Make school education up to age 14 free and compulsory, and reduce drop outs at primary and secondary school levels to below 20 percent for both boys and girls. Reduce infant mortality rate to below 30 per 1000 live births. Reduce maternal mortality ratio to below 100 per 100,000 live births.
- 58. Achieve universalimmunization of children against all vaccine preventable diseases. Promote delayed marriage for girls, not earlier than age 18 and preferably after 20 years of age. Achieve 80 percent institutional deliveries and 100 percent deliveries by trained persons Achieve universal access to information/counseling, and services for fertility regulation and contraception with a wide basket choices.
- 59. Prevent andControl communicable diseases.12. Integrate Indian Systems of Medicines (ISM) in the provision of reproductive and child health services, and in reaching out to households. Promote vigorously the small family norm to achieve replacement levels of TFR. Bring about convergence in implementation of related social sector programs so that family welfare becomes a people centered programme
- 60. IF NPP 2000IS IMPLEMENTED, IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT IN THE YEAR 2010 The population will be 1107 million instead of projected 1162 million. Crude birth rate will be 21 per 1000 IMR of 30 per 1000 live births TFR of 2.1
- 61. REFERENCES Text bookof preventive and social medicine- K.Park Population handbook-5th edition by Arthur haupt Population bulletin Vol 54 by Allen Gelbard PRINCIPLES OF COMMUNITY MEDICINE-DR.B.SRIDHAR RAO COMMUNITY MEDICINE WITH RECENT ADVANCES-DR.B.C.DAS FAMILY PLANNING IN INDIA-B.L.RAINA WIKIPEDIA.COM
- 62. WISH YOU ALL HAPPYPOPULATION DAY (JULY 11th) "Everyone Counts"
Editor's Notes
- #12 Demographic transition (DT) refers to the transition from a stable population with high mortality and high fertility to a stable population with low mortality and low fertility as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973) Stage 5: declining- natural decrease
- #15 The year 1921 is taken as the demographic divide for the reason that before this year, the population was not stable, sometimes it increased and at other times it decreased. The growth rate of population was generally low before 1921. But after this year, there has been considerable and continuous increase in the population. Between 1901 and 1911, the total increase in population was 5.9% and between 1911 and 1921, there was a decrease of 0.39%. In the decade of 1921-1931, the increase was 11.1%, from 1931 to 1941, it was 14.00% and during 1941-1951, it was 13.5%. It is going increasingly since then. Hence the year 1921 is rightly called the demographic divide.
- #16 Points to note Steady increase in population from 1901 to 2011 Increase in population in the previous decade=82,80,142 Increase in population in Bangalore Dist=30,51,756 Chikmagalur dist recorded a decrease in population by 3152 in the last decade
- #31 Life expectancy at birth, education (mean yrs of schooling), GNI