Early Warning Analysis for Human Preparedness and Conflict In Kashmir

Early Warning Analysis for Human Preparedness and Conflict In Kashmir

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  EARLY WARNING ANALYSISFOR HUMAN PREPAREDNESS AND CONFLICT PREVENTION IN KASHMIR By Suzette Lewis, Sarah McKenzie, Troy Powell Jas Palta and Ashlyn Exeley
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  SOCIO ECONOMIC CONDITIONS • Decolonization created new structures  o Introduction to ‘nationalism’ in India sharpened religious divide  o Effect of combining numerous kingdoms and fiefdoms into two states  • Rise of political consciousness  • Legislated human rights violations (ie Armed Forces Special Powers Act 1990)  • Insurgency  o Internal jihadists until 1995 when externals were introduced  • Bad leadership  • Build-up of military  • Lack of rule of law Ethnic Identity  • Split between Muslims (majority) and Hindu (minority rulers)
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  STATE AND INSTITUTIONS India:  - democratic  - starting to privatize in response to fast economic growth  - nuclear state  Pakistan:  - Unstable democracy  - in the process of constitutional reform  - historically military rule  - weak judiciary  - nuclear state  Kashmir:  India-administered Kashmir  - state constitution  - elected government (questionable)  Pakistan-administered Kashmir  - administered by Pakistan  - no democratic representation
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  REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION  Historyof Settlements, Coastal Settlements from 1501-1709. British East India Company (Monopolistic arm of the British government) Came in like other mercantile forms into port cities where they traded for textiles.) Biggest cities of India created during this time. As the political vacuums in India spread Britain got more aggressive. Mid 1700s East India Company won a territorial dispute over a Bengali Kingdom.  1857: Rebellion : reaction to British rule over princely states. (British East India Company Kept subsuming states)   Reaction to this is that the crown replaced the East India Company as the custodian of these states.   Russian Empire and British Expansion  Afghanistan remained as a buffer state.   Post WWI fight for Independence. (India wanted recognition after fighting)   British concern was paramount in and around borders   Maharaj's Prince's were giving leeway in what countries they would join, The Maharaj of Kashmir was torn (would've preferred to be an independent state) Countered by both Pakistan and India.   1947 Pakistan sends in irregulars, training them to overrun Kashmir militarily Maharaj intends to Join Jammu and Kashmir to India. First war between India and Pakistan. (Indian sends in military) Ultimately agree to a cease fire line. (Line of Control)  Pakistan is determined to gain the territory. Fight again 1965. Pakistan starts sending in militants to try to convince the Kashmiri to rise up again India (Islam majority) India finds out and sends its army across the border and in to Pakistan. Indo-Pakistan war 1965 5 weeks
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  REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION  Results Both countries take territory from each other.  Both countries run out of ammunition. (US embargo)  China India and Pakistani (Trilateral ownership), Indus Water Treaty, (River Navigation, Power Generation) Out of state sponsoring of Terrorists, Arms smuggling. Mutual Indian and Pakistani accusation of "illegal" ownership and disputed territory.  Terrorism, and Ex-State Sponsors (Politically, Arms etc)
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  EUROPEAN SETTLEMENTS ININDIA From 1501 - 1739
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  MAP OF THEINDIAN EMPIRE
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  REGIONAL MAP/ TIMELINE
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  HUMAN RIGHTS ANDCIVIL LIBERTIES  The human rights record of the Indian security forces in Kashmir characterized by arbitrary arrests, torture, rape and extrajudicial killings. These have been extensively documented by human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch and the PUCL (Union for Civil Liberties) and others. Most of these violations routinely go unchecked and unpunished, "justified" as unavoidable in a proxy war managed by Pakistan; only a handful cases have been brought to justice by due process. Often, New Delhi's response to the reports by various human rights organizations has been evasive.  2477 civilians had been killed by the Indian forces in the period 1990-1998 (PTI release, 13 September 1998), according to conservative estimates by official sources which mostly exclude thousands of custodial killings. In April 1997, the Minister of State for Home Affairs admitted that 454 persons were missing since 1990.
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  HUMAN RIGHTS CIVILLIBERTIES CONT  Indian Perspective-India sought to suppress he resistance with a massive use of force killings hundreds of innocent men/women/ children in the year it began, 1989. The continued repression led Kashmir youth to militancy. Jihadi forces in the Region already in battle harness and looking for conflict helped out/ the resistance was not created "de novo"(new beginnings). More than 60,000 Kashmiris have been killed since 1989 directly at the hands of over 600,000 Indian troops or in hostilities undertaken on their behalf by the state security apparatus and renegade militias. Thousands lie in jail subject to torture, and custodial deaths. Frequent reports fo gang rapes of women by Indians forces. Deliberate burning down of entire local villages. A number of laws dating back to the 70's have been restricted-Public Safety Act 1979/Terrorist and Disruptive Activities Act 1987/ Armed Forces special Powers Act 1990. Its Judicial System has become utterly dysfunctional
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  ACTORS  Pakistan –state government  India – state government  Kashmir – regional government  UK - during partition/accession, the UK brokered separation of India and Pakistan (Indian Independence Act)  China - shared border  Islamist groups - Muslim cause (Afghanistan)  UN – UN Security Council resolutions supporting a plebiscite to determine disposition of Kashmir  World Bank – Indus Water Treaty  US - war on terror  British East India Company – historical legacy
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  SECURITY  Training wasprovided in Afghanistan in Al-Qaeda training camps  - 9/11 Terrorist attacks were linked to Taliban soldiers, which were founded and supported by Pakistan  - Pakistan openly admitted supported these terrorist factions  - Taliban forces turned on Kashmir later on in 2001, and attacked state parliaments in Kashmir, along with Indian central parliament, in New Delhi  On the surface, a peace process and a cease-fire order is in the works to reduce tensions, however conflicts between ownership rights to Kashmir cause great security  Pakistan's take on the issue with India regarding Kashmir:  o Accession to Kashmir by India was illegal  o India is in illegal possession of Kashmir  - This continual issue allows Pakistan to legitimize is role in aiding and funding the Pakistan military and intelligence forces. It also allows them to fund Kashmiri terrorist that hide out in the Kashmir Valley  India argues that Pakistan is illegally in possession of certain territories within Kashmir and that is the reason for India’s Aggression  - Kashmir is central to India’s security for several reasons:  o Cross-Border terrorism between Jammu and Kashmir into India, funded and enforced by Pakistan is the cause of much of the tension  o Heightened security concerns because both countries are in possess of nuclear arms  o Part of Kashmir under control of Pakistan has been surrendered to China, making this conflict a trilateral issue.  o Beijing launched an attack on India in 1962, disputes between the regions and countries still exist  o Security issues regarding natural resources, including water, power and navigation projects and theft of such resources or attacks on by terrorists are reason for concern