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Eddy Moors, Alterra Wageningen UR
This document summarizes a study on future water availability and food security in the Nile Basin. Population growth is increasing food demand substantially by 2025. The study models three scenarios for meeting this demand: national priorities, upstream control, and basin cooperation. Basin cooperation through improved rainfed agriculture, irrigation, hydropower, and food trade could increase agricultural production by 38% and gross profits by $1154 million, better satisfying needs across the region. Stabilizing political relations and optimizing water allocation over space and time are keys to ensuring long-term food security for all Nile Basin countries.
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Eddy Moors, Alterra Wageningen UR
- 1. Future Water Availabilityand Food Security: The case of the Nile Basin Eddy Moors Christian Siderius, Hester Biemans, Iwan Supit, Van Walsum, Smit, Roest, Van Ierland, Hellegers, Kabat Contact: [email protected]
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- 3. Changes between 1970-1999and 2070- 2099 based on RCP4.5 Delta Rain April-June (mm)
- 4. Changes between 1970-1999and 2070- 2099 based on RCP4.5 Delta number of wet days Delta Rain April- June (mm)
- 5. Changes between 1970-1999and 2070- 2099 based on RCP4.5 Delta number of wet days Delta Rain April-June (mm) Delta length largest period consecutive dry days
- 6. ETHIOPIA: Ministers suspend talks, whilepraising outcomes so far EGYPT: Minister says Megech dam will not affect Egyptās water supplies āEgypt & Sudan outraged by Ethiopia's Blue Nile Damā EGYPT: Minister dismisses Ethiopian dam work āEgypt internationalizes dam dispute with Ethiopiaā AL monitor, Feb 23, 2014 āEgypt FM hails 'positive' Tanzanian stance on Ethiopia damā Ahram online, 23, 2014 āEthiopia Rejects Egypt Proposal on Nile as Dam Talks Falterā Bloomberg, Jan 8, 2014 āNo deal in Nile River trilateral negotiationsā Daily News Egypt, Jan 5, 2014 The Nile 1959 Water allocation treaty: 55.5 BCM for Egypt, 10 BCM evaporation losses, 18.5 BCM for Sudan
- 7. Countries are notfood self-sufficient Sudan South Sudan Ethiopia Eritrea Rwanda Burundi Kenya Tanzania Uganda Congo
- 8. Population increases 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 20122014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Population(million)
- 9. Food security highon the political agenda
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- 11. WaterWise Nile -objective function Y = YLU ā CLWM + YHP āCRWM ļ§ Y represents total benefits (USD/yr), ļ§ YLU gross margin of land use (USD/yr), ļ§ CLWM costs of local water management measures for supporting land use (USD/yr), ļ§ YHP gross margin of hydropower (USD/yr), ļ§ CRWM costs of regional water management for supporting the river, canal and reservoir system (USD/yr). Constrained by available land and water resources and a predefined budget
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- 13. Options in theNile basin ļ§ Land use change ļ§ New hydropower reservoirs ļ§ Irrigation expansion ā Groundwater irrigation ā Local surface water irrigation ā Nile irrigation ļ§ Conservation measures
- 14. Modules ļ§ Water module(hydrology) ļ§ Food module (crop production) ļ§ Energy module (hydropower)
- 15. Hydrology module ļ§ Bucket-type ļ§ 1km resolution ļ§ FAO Aquacrop approach
- 16. Crop module 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.20.4 0.6 0.8 1 Production(%) ETact/ETpot -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 GrossMargin(USD/ha) ETact/ETpot MaizePotato (Intensive) MaizePotato ļ§ De Wit, Wageningen 1959 ļ§ Gross Margin GM = Etact/Etpot(-) * maximum yield(tons/ha) * prices(USD/ton) ā costs(USD/ha)
- 17. Hydropower module ļ§ Yieldlinear function of discharge until a certain maximum turbine capacity ļ§ 0.08 USD / KWh Country Hydropower station Investment (million USD) Capacity (MW) Maximum discharge (m3/s) Uganda Owen Falls Existing 300 1800 Ethiopia Tis Abbay I&II, Tana - Beles Existing 544 180 Sudan Roseires Existing 210 1689 Egypt Aswan Old Dam and High Dam Existing 2600 4152 Uganda Bujugali 730 250 1316 Uganda Kalagala 680 315 1344 Uganda Karuma Falls 450 200 577 Uganda Ayago, Murchison 1000 800 400 Ethiopia Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 4700 5250 1750 Sudan Merowe 1700 1250 3600
- 18. Internal mechanism I:Water productivity
- 19. Internal mechanism II:Rain and ETpot
- 20. Results ā 3scenarios (2005 - 2025) ā¢ 76% increase in production needed ā¢ Egypt can gain some but loose a lot ā¢ Sudan (including South Sudan) and Uganda are key players In gross margin (GM in million USD) National Food Self-Sufficiency Upstream Hegemony Basin Cooperation Country Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency Overall food self-sufficiency Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency Overall food self- sufficiency Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency Overall food self- sufficiency Egypt 85% 85% 50% 50% 78% 78% Ethiopia 16% 100% 16% 87% 16% 92% Sudan ~0% 100% 56% 154% 36% 136% Uganda 0% 100% 0% 113% 0% 112% Other 0% 66% 0% 102% 0% 99% Basin 27% 92% 35% 102% 38% 107%
- 21. 1566 million USD 172million USD 623 million USD 1154 million USD 210 million USD Increase in agricultural gross margin (in USD/ha per year) between 2005 and 2025 Results
- 22. Conclusions A different waterallocation and improved irrigation can contribute up to 25% of the needed increase in production, but the future of food security in the Nile basin lies in utilizing the vast (forgotten) potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior. Rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in food production by the year 2025. Stabilizing regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of irrigation.
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- 24. Points for discussion ļ§Demand management ļ§ Optimising allocation (not only in space, but also in time) ļ§ Sustainable water use (based on the ānaturalā limits and added with storage potential based on a long term risk assessment of droughts). ļ§ Precision agriculture, CSA
Editor's Notes
- #10Ā At the same time the revolution in Egypt has affected power relations in the basin (Egypts hegemony is weakened). South Sudan has emerged Diversification of both financial opportunities as well as markets So this is the scope of the problem