EE astana20170613 UA

EE astana20170613 UA

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  Energy Efficiency Prioritiesin Ukraine Borys Dodonov EU4Energy Sustainable Energy Policy Forum, June 13, 2017
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  © IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2017 Energy Consumption Trendsand Energy Saving Potential • Energy consumption declined by 25.7 Mtoe over 4 years but only 25% is attributed to improvement in energy efficiency • 77% of energy saving due to EE improvement stemmed from residential sector after sharp gas and heat tariffs hike in 2015 • Untapped energy saving potential remains substantial and is estimated at 19 Mtoe (w/o transport sector) or about 1/3 of TFC in 2015 -6,448 -534 -552 -572 -4,971 180 2,970 3,733 -762 -22,191 152 -11,917 -627 -1,178 -8,620 -25,668 -382 -8,737 -1,199 -6,911 -8,439 -30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Ukraine Agriculture & Construction Industry Services Residential Transformation at FFPP KTOE DECOMPOSITION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION CHANGE IN 2012-2015 Intensity Effect Structure Effect Activity Effect Total change in consumption Source: UNDP/NewSEP, Energy Efficiency Monitoring for Ukraine 2017 573 2,407 4,318 5,257 6,435 0 3,500 7,000 Agriculture & Construction Services Transformation at FFPP Residential Industry Energy Saving Potential in 2015, ktoe
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  © IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2017 Is Ukraine Readyfor Investments in Energy Efficiency? Source: World Bank, RISE database *Note: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Turkmenistan were not assessed in RISE 2016 • Ukraine managed to score only 37 points out of 100 for national energy efficiency policy and regulatory frameworks in the World Bank/ESMAP RISE 2016 • EE policy was placed in the “green zone” (scores between 67 and 100) in 4 out of 12 categories 1) national EE planning, 2) EE entities, 3) EE incentives for electricity rate structures, 4) financing mechanisms for EE • In 7 categories scores appeared in the “red zone” (scores 0-33): 1) information provided to consumers about electricity usage, 2) incentives & mandates: large consumers, 3) incentives & mandates: public sector, 4) incentives & mandates: utilities, 5) MEEPS, 6) energy labeling systems and 7) carbon pricing 72 58 37 38 42 45 51 58 62 0 15 30 45 60 75 OECD High Income Europe & Central Asia Ukraine Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Tajikistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Belarus RISE EE Scores for EU4Energy Countries*
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  © IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2017 Top 3 EnergyEfficiency Priorities for Ukraine 1 Enhance capacity to collect and analyse energy data • Data collection during the design, implementation and evaluation phases is a necessary part of an effective energy efficiency policy • Data analysis provide critical information for decision making, including future scenarios, baselines and indicators, which are necessary for tracking progress, monitoring and evaluation of the policy 2 Continue to progressively remove energy price subsidies that are: • The major barrier for EE improvement and renewables development • Regressive since richer people benefit more from subsidized energy prices • Negatively affect energy security by lowering investment in domestic exploration and production and leading to an excessive energy import • One of the major sources of budget and current deficits 3 Leverage private investment in energy efficiency • NEEAP estimates total EE investment needs at EUR 35.07 bn in 2015-2020 • SME and households lack an access to an affordable long-term financing: • establishing funding mechanisms to jump-start energy efficiency financing to help them overcome the initial high set-up costs • engaging with IFS to establish credit lines for local banks for lending to the residential sector, SMEs and municipalities. Source: NKREKP, World Bank/ESMAP estimates Source: National Energy Efficiency Action Plan till 2020 0% 5% 10% 2014 2015 2016 Residential Energy Price Subsidies as % of GDP Electricity Gas & Heat 4,265 4,980 11,170 14,655 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Industry Services Residential Transport EE Investment Plans for 2015-2020 in NEEAP, EUR m
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  © IEA 2016© OECD/IEA 2017 Buildings Sector inUkraine Current Situation • Improve the energy efficiency of building components and energy- using systems in existing buildings - Install energy controls - Set MEEPS for key buildings components - Aid building owners, occupants, and manufacturers to improve energy efficiency • Modernize DH networks Potential Steps Forward • As of March 2017 43.6% of households obtained HUS to pay their energy and utility bills • Steep gas and heat tariff hikes w/o EE improvement in building sector resulted in rising the energy poverty level • DH network losses are on average 18% but may reach 40% for some DH companies • The level of building heat meters installation was 61% in November 2016 Capturing EE gains in buildings sector Fiscal expenditures on HUS , disposable income of HH , natural gas import and energy security Energy Efficiency Priorities in Buildings Sector
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  © IEA 2016