Evaluate the risk and vulnerability of coastal Bangladesh in the context of Global climate change

Evaluate the risk and vulnerability of coastal Bangladesh in the context of Global climate change

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  Course No: DM5231 Disaster Prevention, Mitigation & Adaptation: Approaches, Strategies and Practices Group Members ID No. Name 1301 Jannatul Ferdous 1303 Johir Uddin Mohammad Babor 1304 A. S. M. Nadim 1306 Sirajul Islam 1307 Prosen Saha 1308 Sazia Afreen Snigdha Presentation on Evaluating the Risk and Vulnerability of Coastal Bangladesh in the Context of Global Climate Change
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  BACKGROUND  Bangladesh isone of the most vulnerable countries to climatic disasters in the world due to its low-lying and climatic features, combined with its population density, which make it highly susceptible to many natural hazards, including floods, droughts, cyclones, salinity etc.  More than 80 percent of the population are potentially exposed to floods, earthquakes and droughts and more than 70 percent to cyclones. Severe flooding, occurring every 4-5 years, covers 60 percent of the land mass.  Overall risk and vulnerability of the coastal population is on the rise due to climate change.
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  VULNERABILITIES DUE TOCLIMATE CHANGE
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  STUDY AREA  19districts are identified as Coastal districts according to Coastal Zone Policy (2005).  48 Upazilas/Thanas are considered as ‘exposed’ to direct vulnerability.  32% of the country and accommodates more than 35 million people (28% of total population)
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  OBJECTIVES  To identifythe risks and vulnerabilities to climate change of the Coastal Bangladesh  To identify different sectoral climatic impacts in the Coastal Bangladesh
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  METHODOLOGY The resources includeonline publications, books, governmental reports, international reports, scientific journals and news articles.
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  CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES Vulnerabilities Vulnerableareas Present status Risk of aggravation Cyclones and Storm Surge Island and exposed Upazilas Devastating but seasonal Increasing Land Erosion Meghna and other estuaries, island and other coastal area Serious localized, Seasonal Increasing Flood Exposed Upazilas Serious, Seasonal Increasing Drainage Congestion Khulna, Jessore, Noakhali Localized and year round Increasing Salinity intrusion Western exposed Upazillas Localized, Seasonal Increasing Drought Satkhira Localized and Seasonal Increasing
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  CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES (Cont.) VulnerabilitiesVulnerable areas Present status Risk of aggravation Shortage of drinking water and arsenic contamination All over Serious and Year round Increasing Ecosystem degradation Marine, Sundarbans Serious and year round Increasing Pollution Chittagong, Khulna Serious and year round with cumulative Increasing Climate change All over Serious and year round with cumulative Increasing
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  CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES (Cont.) IWFM (2016) has identified 140 Upazilas of 19 coastal districts which are affected by climate change, considering a total of 24 socioeconomic and 7 natural vulnerability indicators.  Following equation has been used to calculate the vulnerability index. Vulnerability = (adaptive capacity) - (sensitivity + exposure)  The vulnerability analysis shows that Bangladesh coastal Upazilas are not highly vulnerable at present but have to face severe risks of vulnerability in future changed climate.
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  CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES (Cont.)
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  CLIMATE VULNERABILITIES (Cont.)
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  SALINITY INTRUSION  Thesignificantly diminished flow in the dry season allows salinity to penetrate far inland through Meghna estuarine river system. In the last 35 years, salinity had been increased around 26 percent in this country.  About 53 % of the coastal areas were affected by salinity, which limits opportunities for supplemental irrigation of Aus crops in freshwater areas and damages the same crops by flooding during very high tides.  The highlands development of saline water throughout the dry season eliminated surface water potentials for significant land areas in the south-central southwest and southeast regions.  Salinity is also affecting fresh groundwater. The shallow coastal aquifers have high salinity.
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  Maximum Wind StormSurge Date Speed (km/hr) Height (Meter) 30 October 1960 211 4.6-6.1 30 May 1961 160 6.1-8.8 28 May 1963 203 4.2-5.2 11 May 1965 160 6.1-7.6 15 December 1965 211 4.6-6.1 1 November 1966 146 4.6-9.1 23 October 1970 163 3.0-4.9 12 November 1970 224 6.1-9.1 25 May 1985 154 3.0-4.9 29 November 1988 160 3.0-4.0 29 April 1991 225 6.0-7.5 2 May 1994 210 2.0-3.0 25 November 1995 140 2.0-3.0 19 May 1997 220 3.1-4.2 15, November, 2007 260 3.0 INCREASING INTENSITY OF CYCLONES  It is predicted that global warming will cause an annual temperature rise of 0.4 degrees Celsius in Bangladesh and result in greater frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms.  At least 70 major cyclones hit the coastal belt of Bangladesh from the past 200 years.  It is recommended that the houses near to the coastal areas should be built at least 4 m above the mean sea level, but it was found that the average elevation of the dwellings is only 3.5 m.
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  WATERLOGGING AND FLOOD Several reports mentioned there would be stronger-than-usual backwater effect owing to sea level rise induced high oceanic stage in the coastal areas.  The risk of riverine and rainfall-induced high intensity floods with prolonged period, as in the case of flood 1998, will increase significantly.  Sea level rise would also create a optimum condition for saline waters to overtop the flood protecting coastal embankments, especially when induced by strong winds.
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  COASTAL AQUACULTURE  Strongerflow and tidal bores would raise potential for saline water to overtop coastal embankments. Outside the embankments shrimp farms create earthen mini-polders, locally known as ghers, to produce shrimp in imprisonment.  High tides would definitely threaten these ghers both inside and outside embankments.  It is found that, if the temperature crosses a threshold of 32 degree Celsius, the post larvae would show very high rates of mortality. Climate change can put this profitable business into uncertainty.
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  THE SUNDARBANS  Duringthe dry season the effects of climate change on the Sundarbans would be more significantly more dangerous that extends from November to April.  Climate models forecasting a decrease in precipitation during this period which might further reduce freshwater flows, which will promote enhance withdrawals in upstream for irrigation.  Total merchantable wood volume per unit area of forest land decline with increasing soil and river salinity.
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  EFFECTS ON FISHERIESAND FISHERMEN  It is predicted that SLR will cause a reduction in fish production by reducing the freshwater fishing area.  The winter fishing area will be reduced by decreased rainfall and river runoff and increased evaporation during winter.  In the coastal the pond culture area will be affected by disturbance of salt water into the ponds unless embankments are made around them.  Many boats have capsized; many fishermen have drowned , lost their lives and their sagacity of security has been devastated, their lives are at risk.
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  EFFECTS ON CORAL By shifting and overturning substrate boulders cyclonic storms and tidal surge probably cause serious damage to coral communities.  The foremost climate change factor have been occupied in chronic stress and disease epidemics among corals, as well as in the occurrence of increasing numbers of mass coral bleaching episodes.  Elevated water temperatures stress corals leading to “bleaching” the exclusion of colorful, symbiotic algae that corals need for reproduction survival and growth.
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  RECOMMENDATIONS  Developing countriescan use policies to leverage human capacity, investment, and technology to capture large-scale mitigation opportunities, while simultaneously augmenting their development goals.  Adaptation is already considered a vital part of any future climate change regime. Future decisions within the UNFCCC negotiating process must assist developing countries in a streamlined, innovative and transparent way, with transfer of knowledge, technology and financial resources to adapt and to adapt at all levels and in all sectors.  Capacity is still needed to enable developing countries to develop adaptation programs and strategies.  There are already mechanisms for financial assistance for developing countries available. Application procedures need to be streamlined.  Insurance is an area that has been identified as an important component of future action on adaptation.
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