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Fashion forecasting process
1) Fashion forecasters work to identify emerging trends by closely watching many different influences from high and low culture. They communicate this information to product developers and marketers. 2) Forecasting aims to project past trends into the future by anticipating future developments based on signals of change in the present. It attempts to identify the source, pattern, direction, and tempo of trends. 3) There are different types of trends like emerging trends, building trends, declining trends, fads that fade quickly, and classics that achieve widespread acceptance over a long period.
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Fashion forecasting process
- 1. Chapter One THE FASHION FORECASTINGPROCESS “ Fashion used to come from one source at a time, be it the street, the runways or the entertainment business. The interesting thing about today is that influences come from high and low-everything from couture to Target.” – Michael Kors
- 2. Trend Chasers a.k.a. Forecasters •locate the spawning grounds of trends • identify emerging concepts • fashion information passed on to other forecasters, product developers, marketers and the press • work for all kinds of firms
- 3. Strategic Window i.e. awindow of opportunity • timing a firm’s product offerings to the customer’s readiness and willingness to accept and adopt those products.
- 4. Forecasting Defined: • Forecastingshould identify: • Source • Underlying Pattern • Direction • Tempo • Forecasting attempts to project past trends into the future • Anticipates future developments by watching for signals of change in current situations
- 5. Trend: • Can beemerging, building or declining • It has identifiable similarities across information sources. (styles, details, etc) • Characterized by a building awareness among consumers
- 6. Fad: • short trend(a trend with a short duration) • accepted among a relatively small contingent of consumers • fades quickly because it isn’t supported the corresponding lifestyle changes.
- 7. Classics: • long trend •any item or style that gains visibility, generates multiple purchases, and reaches a plateau level of widespread acceptance that persists over a long period of time. • classics implement core attributes desireable while avoiding extreme styling
- 8. Visualization Helps forecasters understandand communicate the movement of fashion and project future directions. There are 3 most familiar patterns of visualization.
- 9. 3 Most FamiliarPatterns • Fashion Curves • Pendulum Swing • Fashion Cycles
- 10. Fashion Curve: • trendsare classified in duration and penetration which are visualized by a curve • time is on the horizontal axis • consumer adoption is on the vertical axis
- 11. Pendulum Swing: • refersto periodic movement of fashion between extremes. Ex. Power dressing in the 80s moved on to relaxed dress codes.
- 12. Fashion Cycles: • Theidea that there exist cyclical patterns in fashion that reoccur over time and are discernible. • The reoccurring patterns are called long wave phenomenon
- 13. 7 Steps inDeveloping a Forecast Tools and techniques that are systematically applied
- 14. 7 Steps inDeveloping a Forecast 1. Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts 2. Determine the causes of change in the past 3. Determine the difference between past forecasts and actual behaviors 4. Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future
- 15. 7 Steps inDeveloping a Forecast 5. Apply forecasting tools and techniques while paying attention to issues of accuracy and reliability 6. Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant deviations from expectations 7. Revise the forecast when necessary
- 16. Long Term vs.Short Term Forecasting:
- 17. Long Term Forecasting: •5 years or more • timeline sufficient for decisions related to repositioning or extending product lines • initiating new businesses • reviving brand images • planning new retain concepts
- 18. Short Term Forecasting: •1 year + • timeline allows for the segments of the textile / apparel pipeline to coordinate seasonal goods around looks that can be communicated to the customer through the press and stores
- 19. Tools used forGathering Informations for Forecasting:
- 20. Fashion Scan: • Followingthe latest fashion news to spot emerging fashion & lifestyle trends • Focus on color, textiles or style forecasting
- 21. Consumer Scan: • Attemptsto identify clusters of people who share Characteristics • Usually combined with demographics, lifestyle, attitudes and behavior • Used to determine target market • Can be used to better understand consumer behavior
- 22. Fashion Analysis: • CombinesFASHION SCAN and CONSUMER SCAN to determine what is likely to happen next • Brings together expertise of a fashion insider & the insights of consumer behavior
- 23. Social and Economic Trends: •Cultural changes in society involve shifts in lifestyle and reflect changes in generational cohorts or cycles in the economy • Affects mass scale purchasing decisions • Casual lifestyle, trend resistant consumer • Megatrends- large scale shifts that cross industry lines
- 24. Trend Analysis: • Detectsshort & long term trends that affect business prospects • Uses all of the aforementioned tools: • Fashion Scan • Consumer Scan • Fashion Analysis • Social and Economic Trends • Trend Analysis
- 25. Competitive Analysis • Reasearchesthe plans and capabilities of competing firms by tracing public information sources. • Over time this allows for the benchmarking of activities against competitors and to develop an accurate view of the market environment.
- 26. Discovering the Zeitgeist Zeitgeist= “The Spirit of the Times” • All cultural components respond to the spirit of the times • Tthe power of the zeitgeist is the ability to coordinate across product categories • Fashion affects all product categories • Individuals in large numbers choose among competing styles; they choose those styles that click or connect with the spirit of the times.
- 27. Defining Fashion: • Fashionis a style that is popular in the present. • It is a set of trends that have been accepted by a wide audience. • It is a complex phenomenon: psychological, sociological, cultural or commercial points of view
- 28. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as a Social and Psychological Response • Fashion as a Popular Culture • Fashion as Change • Fashion as a Universal Phenomenon • Fashion as a Transfer of Meaning • Fashion as an Economical Stimulus • Fashion and Gender Differences
- 29. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as a Social and Psychological Response Clothing simultaneously conceals and reveals the body & self. The buying of fashion is cognitively challenging ($$$ vs. value) and emotionally arousing (+ vs. -) in terms of symbolic meaning to products.
- 30. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as a Popular Culture Operating within the domain of popular culture It is sometimes trivial and transient This invites skepticism because it sometimes seems frivolous or extreme
- 31. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as Change Captures charms of novelty Responsiveness to the spirit of the times and the pull of historical continuity
- 32. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as a Universal Phenomenon example: Mid 15th century Burgundy was a fashion hub With international trade came exposure to foreign styles Fashion is trade in materials, ideas and artisans
- 33. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as a Transfer of Meaning Meaning exists in the cultural environment Designers, marketers and the press transfer meaning to a consumer good. One buys the consumer good and constructs one’s world
- 34. 7 Statements ofFashion: • Fashion as an Economical Stimulus Fashion is an economic entity Planned obsolescence powers the economic engines of fashion There is a pleasure associated with new looks and new clothes, styles, etc.
- 35. 7 Statements ofFashion: • • Fashion and Gender Differences Men’s clothes traditionally occupational Women’s clothes traditionally vented their individuality Apparel for the genders is not on the same field.
- 36. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist Attempted to list factors that guide & influence the character and direction of fashion
- 37. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist • Dominating events • Dominating Ideas • Dominating Social Groups • Dominating Attitude • Dominating Technology
- 38. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist • Dominating events 3 kinds: Significant occurences = war, death, world fairs, academy awards etc. Art Vogues = Russian ballet Accidental events = discovery of king tut’s tomb
- 39. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist • Dominating Ideas Patriotism, Greek ideal or classic beauty Multiculturalism, environmentalism, gender equality, etc.
- 40. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist • Dominating Social Groups Those with wealth, power & leadership positions celebrities fall into this category
- 41. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist • Dominating Attitude attitude of the times eras of differentiation v. conformity (20’s & 60’s v. 30’s, 50’s & 90’s)
- 42. Nystrom’s Framework for Observingthe Zeitgeist • Dominating Technology technology imprints: including production methods materials infiltrating our daily lives