Financial Synergies | Q3 2018 Market Review

Financial Synergies | Q3 2018 Market Review

• 1.
  Q3Quarterly Market Review ThirdQuarter 2018
• 2.
  Quarterly Market Review 2 ThirdQuarter 2018 Overview: Market Summary World Stock Market Performance World Asset Classes US Stocks International Developed Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks Select Country Performance Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Commodities Fixed Income Impact of Diversification Quarterly Topic: Total Cost of Fund Ownership This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets. The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios.
• 3.
  Market Summary Past performanceis not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index [net div.]), US Bond Market (Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond Market ex US (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Bond Index [hedged to USD]). S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. FTSE fixed income © 2018 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. Index Returns US Stock Market International Developed Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks Global Real Estate US Bond Market Global Bond Market ex US Q3 2018 STOCKS BONDS 7.12% 1.31% -1.09% -0.03% 0.02% -0.17% Since Jan. 2001 Avg. Quarterly Return 2.0% 1.5% 2.9% 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% Best 16.8% 25.9% 34.7% 32.3% 4.6% 4.6% Quarter 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2001 Q3 2008 Q4 Worst -22.8% -21.2% -27.6% -36.1% -3.0% -2.7% Quarter 2008 Q4 2008 Q4 2008 Q4 2008 Q4 2016 Q4 2015 Q2 3
• 4.
  220 230 240 250 260 270 World Stock MarketPerformance Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q3 2018 These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. July Aug Sep 4 “Resignations Over May’s Brexit Plan Throw UK Government into Turmoil” “Rising US Consumer Prices Are Eroding Wage Gains” “Youth Unemployment Hits 52-Year Low” “Greece’s Bailouts End, but Its Prospects Still Look Grim” “Deficit Projected to Top $1 Trillion Starting Next Year” “Japan, EU Sign Trade Deal: ‘We Stand Together against Protectionism’” “US Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level since 1969” “US Economy Grew at 4.1% Rate in Second Quarter” “US Pressures China with Punitive Trade, Defense Measures” “Nasdaq Crosses 8000 Threshold for First Time” “US Factory Sector Clocks Strongest Growth in 14 Years” “US Consumer Confidence Hits 18-Year High” “China’s Trade Surplus with US Hits New Record” “Fed Raises Interest Rates, Signals One More Increase This Year”
• 5.
  150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 Sep-2017 Dec-2017 Mar-2018Jun-2018 Sep-2018 World Stock Market Performance These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index [net div.]. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months Short Term (Q4 2017–Q3 2018) Long Term (2000–Q3 2018) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2005 2010 2015 Last 12 months “Yield on 10-Year US Government Bond Hits 3% for First Time in Years” “Trump Pulls US Out of Iran Deal” “Profits Surge at Big US Firms” “Nasdaq Crosses 8000 Threshold for First Time” “US Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level since 1969” “US Factory Activity Hits 13-Year High” 5 “New-Home Sales Growth Surges to 25-Year High” “US Economy Reaches Its Potential Output for First Time in Decade” “Trump Signs Sweeping Tax Overhaul Into Law” “Nasdaq Crests 7000 as Tech Giants Roar Into 2018” “Congress Passes Mammoth Spending Bill, Averts Shutdown” “US Imposes New Tariffs, Ramping Up 'America First' Trade Policy” “US, China Tariffs Hit American-Made Products from Chips to Cars” “Inflation Rate Hits Six-Year High in May” “China’s Trade Surplus with US Hits New Record” “Fed Raises Interest Rates, Signals One More Increase This Year”
• 6.
  World Asset Classes Pastperformance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Looking at broad market indices, the US outperformed non-US developed and emerging markets during the quarter. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US, non-US developed, and emerging markets. The value effect was positive in emerging markets but negative in the US and non-US developed markets. REIT indices underperformed equity market indices in both the US and non-US developed markets. Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns (%) -0.85 -1.09 -1.41 -4.21 7.71 7.42 7.12 5.70 3.58 3.44 1.60 1.31 1.15 0.72 0.71 0.48 0.02 S&P 500 Index Russell 1000 Index Russell 3000 Index Russell 1000 Value Index Russell 2000 Index MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index (net div.) Russell 2000 Value Index MSCI World ex USA Index (net div.) MSCI World ex USA Value Index (net div.) Dow Jones US Select REIT Index MSCI All Country World ex USA Index (net div.) One-Month US Treasury Bills Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index (net div.) MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div.) S&P Global ex US REIT Index (net div.) MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index (net div.) 6
• 7.
  US Stocks Third Quarter2018 Index Returns Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (Russell 1000 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. The US equity market posted a positive return, outperforming both non-US developed and emerging markets. Value underperformed growth in the US across large and small cap stocks. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US. World Market Capitalization—US 55%US Market $29.7 trillion Period Returns (%) * Annualized Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years** Large Growth 17.09 26.30 20.55 16.58 14.31 Small Growth 15.76 21.06 17.98 12.14 12.65 Small Cap 11.51 15.24 17.12 11.07 11.11 Marketwide 10.57 17.58 17.07 13.46 12.01 Large Cap 10.49 17.76 17.07 13.67 12.09 Small Value 7.14 9.33 16.12 9.91 9.52 Large Value 3.92 9.45 13.55 10.72 9.79 9.17 7.42 7.12 5.70 5.52 3.58 1.60 Large Growth Large Cap Marketwide Large Value Small Growth Small Cap Small Value Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%) 7
• 8.
  International Developed Stocks ThirdQuarter 2018 Index Returns Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index is used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. In US dollar terms, developed markets outside the US underperformed the US but outperformed emerging markets during the quarter. Large cap value stocks underperformed large cap growth stocks in non-US developed markets; however, small cap value outperformed small cap growth. Small caps underperformed large caps in non-US developed markets. Period Returns (%) * Annualized Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years** Growth 0.39 5.47 9.91 5.37 5.78 Large Cap -1.50 2.67 9.32 4.24 5.18 Small Cap -2.28 3.42 12.23 7.07 9.04 Value -3.43 -0.13 8.65 3.05 4.51 34%International Developed Market $18.6 trillion World Market Capitalization—International Developed 2.14 2.06 1.98 0.04 1.46 1.31 1.15 (0.85) Growth Large Cap Value Small Cap Ranked Returns (%) Local currency US currency 8
• 9.
  Emerging Markets Stocks ThirdQuarter 2018 Index Returns Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. In US dollar terms, emerging markets posted negative returns for the quarter, underperforming developed markets including the US. The value effect was positive, particularly in large caps in emerging markets. Small caps underperformed large caps. 4.53 -0.04 -2.88 -4.36 3.44 -1.09 -4.21 -5.38 Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Ranked Returns (%) Local currency US currency Period Returns (%) * Annualized Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years** Value -4.28 2.27 11.55 2.04 4.53 Large Cap -7.68 -0.81 12.36 3.61 5.40 Growth -10.94 -3.89 13.03 5.08 6.18 Small Cap -12.30 -4.20 7.43 2.72 7.43 11%Emerging Markets $5.8 trillion World Market Capitalization—Emerging Markets 9
• 10.
  -1.60 -2.18 -3.73 -4.30 -4.34 -6.93 -7.65 -10.88 -13.36 -20.89 14.91 11.64 9.31 7.49 5.62 5.08 4.41 4.07 3.48 3.22 2.54 0.79 0.39 0.15 Thailand Qatar Poland Mexico Russia Brazil Taiwan Hungary Czech Republic Malaysia UAE Korea Indonesia Philippines Chile Peru Colombia India Pakistan South Africa China Egypt Greece Turkey RankedEmerging Markets Returns (%) -0.59 -0.91 -1.46 -1.54 -1.74 -2.00 -2.21 -3.59 -4.19 -5.42 8.53 6.94 6.44 6.35 6.13 2.97 2.48 1.96 1.95 1.90 1.34 0.73 0.59 Israel US Sweden Switzerland Norway Japan France Finland Singapore New Zealand Denmark Austria Canada Germany Australia Netherlands Hong Kong Portugal UK Spain Italy Belgium Ireland Ranked Developed Markets Returns (%) Select Country Performance Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), MSCI USA IMI Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014. In US dollar terms, Israel, the US, and Sweden recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Ireland and Belgium posted the lowest returns for the quarter. In emerging markets, Thailand and Qatar recorded the highest country performance, while Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and China posted the lowest performance. Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns 10
• 11.
  -0.15 -0.17 -0.73 -1.09 -1.23 -1.30 -2.20 -2.39 -3.14 -3.66 -3.71 -3.84 -4.26 -5.48 -23.74 5.12 2.44 1.57 1.23 0.47 0.38 Mexican peso (MXN) Thailandbaht (THB) Poland new zloty (PLN) Hungary forint (HUF) South Korean won (KRW) Czech koruna (CZK) Taiwanese NT dollar (TWD) Egyptian pound (EGP) Peru new sol (PEN) Colombian peso (COP) Philippine peso (PHP) Chilean peso (CLP) Pakistani rupee (PKR) Malaysian ringgit (MYR) South African rand (ZAR) Brazilian real (BRL) Chinese yuan (CNY) Indonesia rupiah (IDR) Russian ruble (RUB) Indian rupee (INR) Turkish lira (TRY) Ranked Emerging Markets (%) -0.21 -0.52 -0.61 -1.23 -2.07 -2.08 -2.48 1.77 1.65 0.67 0.59 0.26 0.09 Canadian dollar (CAD) Swiss franc (CHF) Israel shekel (ILS) Swedish krona (SEK) Hong Kong dollar (HKD) Norwegian krone (NOK) Singapore dollar (SGD) Euro (EUR) Danish krone (DKK) British pound (GBP) Australian dollar (AUD) New Zealand dollar (NZD) Japanese yen (JPY) Ranked Developed Markets (%) Select Currency Performance vs. US Dollar Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. MSCI data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. In developed markets, currencies recorded mixed results vs. the US dollar. The Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc appreciated over 1.5% vs. the US dollar, but the Japanese yen and Australian and New Zealand dollars all each depreciated more than 2%. In emerging markets, most currencies depreciated against the US dollar. The Turkish lira fell over 20%, but the Mexican Peso appreciated more than 5%. Third Quarter 2018 11
• 12.
  Real Estate InvestmentTrusts (REITs) Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. S&P data © 2018 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. US real estate investment trusts outperformed non-US REITs in US dollar terms. 0.72 -1.41 US REITs Global REITs (ex US) Ranked Returns (%) Period Returns (%) * Annualized Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years** Dow Jones US Select REIT Index 2.56 4.59 6.88 9.14 7.21 S&P Global ex US REIT Index (net div.) -2.88 3.39 5.66 4.18 5.40 59% US $656 billion 98 REITs 41% World ex US $459 billion 240 REITs (21 other countries) Total Value of REIT Stocks 12
• 13.
  Commodities Third Quarter 2018Index Returns Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Commodities returns represent the return of the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Individual commodities are sub-index values of the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index. Data provided by Bloomberg. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return declined 2.02% in the third quarter. The energy complex led performance. Heating oil gained 5.63%, and Brent oil returned 5.21%. Nickel, the worst-performing commodity, declined 16.05%. Sugar lost 14.50%, and coffee fell 13.48%. Period Returns (%) Asset Class QTR YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years** Commodities -2.02 -2.03 2.59 -0.11 -7.18 -6.24 * Annualized -1.36 -2.24 -2.52 -3.03 -3.92 -4.51 -5.49 -6.14 -6.34 -6.69 -9.00 -9.75 -13.48 -14.50 -16.05 5.63 5.21 4.92 4.55 2.73 2.34 0.03 Heating oil Brent crude oil Unleaded gas Live cattle WTI crude oil Natural gas Kansas wheat Lean hogs Wheat Soybean oil Aluminum Soybeans Corn Gold Copper Soybean meal Zinc Cotton Silver Coffee Sugar Nickel Ranked Returns for Individual Commodities (%) 13
• 14.
  3.05 3.41 3.59 4.20 10-Year US Treasury MunicipalsAAA-AA Corporates A-BBB Corporates Bond Yields across Issuers (%) Fixed Income One basis point equals 0.01%. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the S&P National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). FTSE fixed income indices © 2018 FTSE Fixed Income LLC, all rights reserved. ICE BofAML index data © 2018 ICE Data Indices, LLC. Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns Interest rates increased in the US during the third quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note rose 21 basis points (bps), ending at 2.94%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note increased 20 bps to 3.05%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield rose 21 bps to 3.19%. On the short end of the yield curve, the 1-month Treasury bill yield increased 35 bps to 2.12%, while the 1-year Treasury bill yield rose 26 bps to 2.59%. The 2-year Treasury note yield finished at 2.81% after an increase of 29 bps. In terms of total return, short-term corporate bonds gained 0.71%, while intermediate-term corporates returned 0.80%. Short-term municipal bonds declined 0.11%, while intermediate-term munis dipped 0.06%. Revenue bonds (‒0.16%) performed in line with general obligation bonds (‒0.14%). 9/29/2017 6/29/2018 9/28/2018 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 US Treasury Yield Curve (%) 1 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 30 Yr 14 Period Returns (%) *Annualized Asset Class QTR YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years** Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Corporate Bond Index 2.40 2.57 3.05 8.15 5.54 9.46 ICE BofAML US 3-Month Treasury Bill Index 0.49 1.30 1.59 0.84 0.52 0.34 ICE BofAML 1-Year US Treasury Note Index 0.41 1.07 1.08 0.74 0.55 0.71 FTSE World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to USD) 0.17 0.58 0.64 1.04 1.26 1.90 Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index 0.02 -1.60 -1.22 1.31 2.16 3.77 Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index -0.15 -0.40 0.35 2.24 3.54 4.75 FTSE World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years -0.63 -1.68 -1.39 0.84 -1.16 0.88 Bloomberg Barclays US TIPS Index -0.82 -0.84 0.41 2.04 1.37 3.32 Bloomberg Barclays US Government Bond Index Long -2.82 -5.71 -3.50 0.78 4.41 5.45
• 15.
  $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 12/1988 12/1993 12/199812/2003 12/2008 12/2013 Growth of Wealth: The Relationship between Risk and Return Stock/Bond Mix Impact of Diversification Third Quarter 2018 Index Returns 1. STDEV (standard deviation) is a measure of the variation or dispersion of a set of data points. Standard deviations are often used to quantify the historical return volatility of a security or portfolio. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2018, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but have higher expected returns over time. 0.48 1.45 2.43 3.41 4.40 100% Treasury Bills 25/75 50/50 75/25 100% Stocks Ranked Returns (%) Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years**10 Years** 10-Year STDEV¹ 100% Stocks 4.26 10.35 14.02 9.25 8.77 15.83 75/25 3.56 8.14 10.64 7.08 6.85 11.87 50/50 2.82 5.93 7.31 4.89 4.78 7.91 25/75 2.05 3.71 4.01 2.68 2.58 3.95 100% Treasury Bills 1.24 1.50 0.75 0.45 0.27 0.14 Period Returns (%) * Annualized 100% Stocks 75/25 50/50 25/75 100% Treasury Bills 15 9/2018