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Future of autonomous vehicles initial perspective - 8 october 2018
The document discusses the opportunities and challenges in the deployment of autonomous vehicles (AV), highlighting key questions regarding regulation, safety, traffic impact, mobility services, and technological needs. It indicates that while AVs promise significant benefits like reduced congestion and improved safety, their widespread adoption will take 25 to 30 years, and public acceptance may vary. The discourse also emphasizes the importance of global standards and the roles of various stakeholders in facilitating the transition to AVs.
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Overview of the future of AV and the project's scope to identify opportunities and drivers of change.
Initial views on challenges for AV deployment, with projections for full vehicle fleet conversion in 25-30 years.
AVs aim to eliminate congestion, reduce injuries, and improve quality of life, with early steps in controlled environments.
AV implementation may require a rethinking of transport planning and the relationship between connectivity and autonomy.
Safety benefits may primarily arise from existing ADAS, with significant non-safety benefits through reduced travel costs.
Public resistance to vehicle sharing, parallel growth of AV for transporting people and goods with support for truck automation.
High commercial interest in level 4 truck automation; opportunities for innovation in improving first and last-mile transport.
Mobility as a service may increase vehicle usage; initial deployments will focus on city streets; fleet models may influence car ownership.
Inadequate harmonization in transit planning may delay benefits; trust will likely lean towards traditional car brands over tech companies.
AV appeal is strongest for those lacking access to affordable mobility; maritime AV ambitions focus on crew elimination.
Seaborne AVs show clear trajectory for development; pilotless planes and air taxis represent evolving mobility options.
Regions with advanced regulation are expected to lead AV deployment; common standards are crucial for global adoption.
Final note on future agenda and contact details for further inquiries into AV developments.
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Future of autonomous vehicles initial perspective - 8 october 2018
- 1. The Future ofAutonomous Vehicles An Initial View for Global Debate and Challenge 8 October 2018
- 2. Project Scope This projectis identifying where and what are the key opportunities for AV, as well as the pivotal drivers of change across a number of major locations. Review existing research Map the emerging landscape Explore gaps via global dialogue Identify the key priority opportunities Prepare global synthesis Support hosts with core implications THE FUTURE OF AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions Around the World
- 3. Initial Perspective An initialview on some of the key options and challenges ahead has been prepared. This is the starting point of the global dialogue. Key Questions Include: • Where will be the key hot-spots for AV development and deployment? • Where is advanced regulation most likely to act as a catalyst for AV deployment? • What level of safety (crashes) is acceptable for the full launch of AV in the next decade? • Will AV increase or decrease total traffic flow and congestion? • Will automated mobility services replace, reduce or extend the reach of public transport? • Of all the technologies in the mix, which are in greatest need of further development before the benefits of AV can be realised? • What are the distinct benefits from AV that are not already coming from current and future- connected ADAS? • How important will international standards and commonly shared technologies be for AV adoption? • Which will be the pivotal organisations, cities and governments that control adoption rates? • Who will lead on integrating all the varied systems needed to enable AV to operate? • Who will customers trust most to deliver a safe, reliable and comfortable AV experience?
- 4. Time to FullConversion Despite growing investment and technology availability, it is going to take time to change the whole vehicle fleet - maybe up to 25 to 30 years.
- 5. Multiple Benefits AV willeliminate congestion, reduce injuries, free time, reduce energy consumption, improve air quality, drive social inclusion and create new jobs.
- 6. Controlled Environments While controlledenvironments have demonstrated some early steps for AV, there are more complex challenges to be addressed on the open road.
- 7. Rethinking Planning For AVto get real traction it may be necessary to turn transport planning on its head and for cities to deliver new visions which in turn will drive demand.
- 8. Connected vs. AutonomousVehicles Connectivity and autonomy are complementary technologies but connected vehicles are not necessarily autonomous nor are AVs inevitably connected.
- 9. Alternative Sources ofSafety Benefits Many advocating AV claim huge safety benefits, but the majority of these benefits may well come from ADAS (advanced driver-assistance systems).
- 10. Non-safety Benefits Many ofnon-safety benefits from AV will come from reducing the cost of travel and saving time due to significant drops in congestion.
- 11. Resistance to Sharing Asmany people enjoy their personal space, some see that public interest in a significant rise in sharing vehicles may not be as high as expected.
- 12. People vs. Goods Theuse of AV to move people could scale in parallel with the movement of goods - and not follow in their wake as was previously thought.
- 13. Support for Platooning Thereis no real opposition to level 1 truck automation and regulators are supportive of platooning since it offers societal as well as business benefits.
- 14. Full Truck Automation Thesignificant automation (level 4) of highway trucks is of huge commercial interest to the freight community and will transform long-haul journeys.
- 15. First and LastMile Improving the inefficient ‘first mile’ and ‘last mile’ is a major opportunity for innovation with multiple health, energy and efficiency benefits.
- 16. Mobility as aService Mobility will be delivered as a service that will not only increase vehicle utilisation but correspondingly also reduce the cost-per-mile.
- 17. Cost of AVs PersonalAVs will cost more than human-operated vehicles, but access to a shared AV will be cheaper than today’s ride-hailing and taxi services.
- 18. Fleet Deployment Many initialdeployments of the ‘fleet’ phase of AVs will focus on city streets where speed and therefore risk is lower than elsewhere.
- 19. Support for theFleet Model Fleet is increasingly seen as the way forward for passenger vehicles and could change both travel patterns and car ownership decisions.
- 20. Public Transport Solutions Theoperational design of autonomous buses will not cover all current service areas, so robo-taxis will have to fill transportation gaps.
- 21. Inadequate Harmonisation Poor coordinationbetween transit systems, urban planning and little planning of long-term transit solutions may delay the benefits of AVs.
- 22. Who we Trust Mostof us will prefer to trust traditional car brands more than big-tech to deliver a safe, reliable and comfortable AV experience.
- 23. Initial Users AV willhave greatest appeal for those without access to affordable mobility or who are uncomfortable about driving - the young, old and disabled.
- 24. Seaborne AV Ambition Themaritime industry’s goal is not removing humans from decision-making processes completely but to eliminate the need for crew on board vessels.
- 25. Confidence in SeaborneAV With rapidly advancing technologies and compelling investment cases, the trajectory for seaborne AVs is more predictable than others.
- 26. Military UAV Remit Thelimiting factor for autonomous weapons is not the technology but the political will to produce, or admit to having, such capabilities.
- 27. Air Traffic forDrones Drones do not have the same level of collision avoidance systems as planes, so need a flight control network able to self-manage UAV air routing.
- 28. Access to Air-Taxis Althoughinitially only for the wealthy, as they evolve air taxis could compete with ground transport as a more flexible option for personal mobility.
- 29. Pilotless Planes Pilotless passengerflights are a natural progression as planes already fly on autopilot and airports are equipped for fully automated take-off / landing.
- 30. Impact of Regulation Theregions that gain most initially will be those where there is advanced regulation to act as a catalyst for AV deployment.
- 31. Common Standards International standardsand commonly-shared technologies will be essential for driving global rather than regional AV adoption.
- 32. Future Agenda, 84Brook Street, London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 www.futureagenda.org | www.futureagenda.net | @futureagenda