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Climate Change - Our Challenge for the 21st Century by Jennifer Adkins, Director, Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
- 1. Climate Change: Our Challengefor the 21st Century Dr. Susan S. Kilham Department of Biodiversity, Earth and Environmental Science Drexel University Jennifer Adkins Executive Director Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
- 2. Sources of Information Fromthe Partnership for the Delaware Estuary: 2007: Estuary News: Climate Change Hits Home 2010: Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary 2011: Weathering Change 2012: Technical Report for the Delaware Estuary and Basin From Pennsylvania State University: 2013: Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment Update
- 3. Local Impacts ofClimate Change in this Century Increased temperatures (up to 4°C (7.2°F)by 2100-A2) Increased precipitation Increased evapotranspiration Decreased soil moisture (except in spring) Increased stream temperatures Increased salinity ( sea levels + stream flow)
- 4. But, Also Consider Populationgrowth Urbanization and other land cover changes Pollution of water bodies These could be equal or even greater stressors than climate change, especially in the near future
- 5. Consequences of Changes: Temperature Increasedtemperatures cause decreased oxygen concentrations. Additionally, increased N-oxygen demand from increased NH4 loading Consequences for sensitive fish species, especially YOY sturgeon and cold water species Increased NH4 loading also affects FW mussels Changes in growing season, phenology misfits
- 6. Consequences of Change: Precipitation Generalincrease in precipitation in the last 30 years Increased seasonal variability in precipitation: greater in winter/spring and less in summer Less snow, shorter snow cover duration Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events (changes in channel morphology, flushing of contaminants, erosion of stream banks, higher sediment loads) Decreased survival and reproductive success for fish and macroinvertebrates.
- 7. Consequences of Change: Evapotranspiration Precipitationduring growing season is returned nearly completely to the atmosphere via evapotranspiration Lengthening of growing season increases evapotranspiration Water levels in streams in summer/fall will decline Low flows and higher temperatures are likely to decrease habitat suitability for aquatic organisms (low O2, increased flow variability, timing of peak flows and changes in stream T)
- 8. Consequences of Change: SoilMoisture Soil moisture droughts will increase because of higher T and lower precipitation during summers. This trend is already apparent. Wetter winters over frozen soils leads to greater runoff, even floods. Groundwater recharge occurs mostly in spring, but increased precipitation is unlikely to compensate for excessive withdrawals.
- 9. Consequences of Change: IncreasedSalinity Drinking water for 15 million people (DRBC: Na < 50ppm; AHA Na < 20 ppm). Chloride is expected to increase 4X in Philadelphia by 2100 Sea level increase (globally up to 1.4 m , but regionally higher by 2100) Severe impacts to wetlands with critical problems for wetland species Oyster growth and survival will be impacted
- 10. A Few ParticularConcerns Adjusting the traditional paradigm of restoration to past conditions to the reality of climate change Protecting source water quantity and quality Wetland/salt marsh issues Species disconnects in phenology Barriers to species migrations; assisted migration Mussell/shad hatcheries Tipping points
- 11. Considerations What are ourgoals? How do we measure and monitor to evaluate whether or not we are accomplishing our goals? What inputs are needed to build better models for predicting anticipated changes? What are the barriers to accomplishing goals?
- 12. PDE Climate CaseStudies 3 case studies How will climate change in the Delaware Estuary? How will changes impact key resources? What are our options for making them more resilient? What actions are recommended to protect them? What if we don’t take action?
- 13. In the Watershed WaterQuality Improvement Forest Protection Stormater Management Green Infrastructure Flow Management Infrastructure Updates
- 14. In the Marshes 25%Loss of tidal wetlands! 2000 2100
- 15. Mid Atlantic CoastalWetland Assessment • Assessed condition of 268 points since 2010 • Comparative data analyses and management recommendations • Studying ecosystem services associated with salt marshes • Long-term monitoring stations (right) • Devising new tactics to boost coastal wetland resilience
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- 17. “Marsh Futures” Coastal Wetlandsfor Shoreline Defense Hybrid LS Bio LS Sediment 2035 2050 2025 2020 Elevation Capital Layer Strategic BMP Layer
- 18. In the Riverand Bay Shell planting for Oysters Propagate Mussels Monitoring & Research
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- 20. In Communities Out ofHarm’s Way Forum – August 2012
- 21. BaySIPP The Bayshore SustainableInfrastructure Planning Project Areas of Opportunity for the Community and Conservation Organizations to Work Together to Improve Resilience with Green Infrastructure
- 22.