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Global Development Horizons 2013: Capital For the Future
The document discusses the future of global investment, highlighting that developing economies are expected to account for 60% of every investment dollar by 2030, surpassing high-income countries. It notes that while demographic changes may pressure savings, the world will not run out of savings and developing countries will become key players in international finance. The document emphasizes the importance of policy and institutional reforms to ensure equitable distribution of savings and investments.
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Global Development Horizons 2013: Capital For the Future
- 2. Capital for theFuture
- 3. Capital for theFuture Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world?
- 4. Capital for theFuture Will an aging world run out of saving to fund investment? Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world?
- 5. Capital for theFuture Will an aging world run out of saving to fund investment? Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world? How will savers and investors be matched in the future?
- 6. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030
- 7. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030
- 8. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030 Developing High income World investment World GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Y (USD trillions) I (USD trillions) Total investment in the developing world will overtake high-income countries…
- 9. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030 Developing High income World investment World GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Y (USD trillions) I (USD trillions) Total investment in the developing world will overtake high-income countries…
- 10. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030 Developing High income World investment World GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Y (USD trillions) I (USD trillions) Total investment in the developing world will overtake high-income countries…
- 11. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030 Russian Fed. Brazil Indonesia India Sub- Saharan Africa High income 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 I/Y (%) Despite declining investment rates, their growing size means that global investment remains stable Developing High income World investment World GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Y (USD trillions) I (USD trillions) Total investment in the developing world will overtake high-income countries…
- 12. Developing economies willbe major investors in the world economy, accounting for 60 cents of every investment dollar by 2030 Russian Fed. Brazil Indonesia India Sub- Saharan Africa High income 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 I/Y (%) Despite declining investment rates, their growing size means that global investment remains stable Developing High income World investment World GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Y (USD trillions) I (USD trillions) Total investment in the developing world will overtake high-income countries…
- 13. While there willundoubtedly be demographic pressures, the world will not “run out” of saving in the future HIC EAP LAC SSA 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 1950 1981 2011 2042 Working/ non- working population Asynchronicity in evolving demographic pressures…
- 14. While there willundoubtedly be demographic pressures, the world will not “run out” of saving in the future HIC EAP LAC SSA 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 1950 1981 2011 2042 Working/ non- working population Asynchronicity in evolving demographic pressures…
- 15. While there willundoubtedly be demographic pressures, the world will not “run out” of saving in the future HIC EAP LAC SSA 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 1950 1981 2011 2042 Working/ non- working population Asynchronicity in evolving demographic pressures… High income East Asia Sub- Saharan Africa Latin America 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 S/Y (%) …implies heterogeneous decline in saving rates, with only SSA bucking the trend
- 16. While there willundoubtedly be demographic pressures, the world will not “run out” of saving in the future HIC EAP LAC SSA 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 1950 1981 2011 2042 Working/ non- working population Asynchronicity in evolving demographic pressures… High income East Asia Sub- Saharan Africa Latin America 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 S/Y (%) …implies heterogeneous decline in saving rates, with only SSA bucking the trend
- 17. Developing countries willincreasingly be the main savers and investors. Indeed, they will become key players in the international financial arena High income 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gross capital inflows ($ trillions) Developing countries will become important financial intermediaries… Developing countries Advanced countries 47% 53%
- 18. Developing countries willincreasingly be the main savers and investors. Indeed, they will become key players in the international financial arena High income 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gross capital inflows ($ trillions) Developing countries will become important financial intermediaries… Developing countries Advanced countries 47% 53%
- 19. Developing countries willincreasingly be the main savers and investors. Indeed, they will become key players in the international financial arena High income 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gross capital inflows ($ trillions) …and more so, in a scenario with rapid convergence in institutions 60% 40%
- 20. Developing countries willincreasingly be the main savers and investors. Indeed, they will become key players in the international financial arena High income 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gross capital inflows ($ trillions) …and more so, in a scenario with rapid convergence in institutions 60% 40%
- 21. Developing countries willincreasingly be the main savers and investors. Indeed, they will become key players in the international financial arena High income 0 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gross capital inflows ($ trillions) …and more so, in a scenario with rapid convergence in institutions 60% 40% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gross capital flows to developing countries (% GDP) And the scenarios are conservative Historical Gradual convergence scenario Rapid convergence scenario Linear (Historical) 9% 6% 11%
- 22. These outcomes willonly be realized if policymakers take active steps in terms of policy and institutional reform.
- 23. For example, eventhough saving will be more equally distributed across countries, within them savings may still be concentrated amongst few richer households, unless education opportunities are given to everyone Household saving rate, Mexico Demographic effect Demographic + education effect 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
- 24. For example, eventhough saving will be more equally distributed across countries, within them savings may still be concentrated amongst few richer households, unless education opportunities are given to everyone Household saving rate, Mexico Demographic effect Demographic + education effect 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
- 25.
Editor's Notes
- #2 Welcome to the second edition of theGlobal Development Horizons GDH, a world bank report dedicated to identifying emerging trends that will affect development in the long run. This edition looks at the important processes of saving and capital accumulation in the next two decades or so. And, by peering into the future, the report anticipates dramatic changes. what underpins growth in these various parts of the world. More precisely, it looks atThe first edition highlighted that the world economy has become multipolar: global economic expansion is and will continue to be the result of growth in many different parts of the world. And the first edition emphasized the fact that many developing countries will continue to experience sustained growth and thus are or will soon become some of the most important growth poles in the global economy.
- #3 Let’s organize the main findings of the “GDH Capital for the future“ around three key questions:The first one considers the demand for capital: Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world? The second one addresses the concern that aging, by shrinking the share of high saving individuals in the population, will negatively affect saving… And the third onecontemplates how savers and investors will be matched in the future world economyThe report has qualified answers for these three questions…
- #4 Let’s organize the main findings of the “GDH Capital for the future“ around three key questions:The first one considers the demand for capital: Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world? The second one addresses the concern that aging, by shrinking the share of high saving individuals in the population, will negatively affect saving… And the third onecontemplates how savers and investors will be matched in the future world economyThe report has qualified answers for these three questions…
- #5 Let’s organize the main findings of the “GDH Capital for the future“ around three key questions:The first one considers the demand for capital: Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world? The second one addresses the concern that aging, by shrinking the share of high saving individuals in the population, will negatively affect saving… And the third onecontemplates how savers and investors will be matched in the future world economyThe report has qualified answers for these three questions…
- #6 Let’s organize the main findings of the “GDH Capital for the future“ around three key questions:The first one considers the demand for capital: Which countries will drive investment in a multipolar world? The second one addresses the concern that aging, by shrinking the share of high saving individuals in the population, will negatively affect saving… And the third onecontemplates how savers and investors will be matched in the future world economyThe report has qualified answers for these three questions…
- #7 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #8 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #9 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #10 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #11 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #12 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #13 In terms of the first question, Developing economies will be major investors in the world economy, accounting, by 2030, for 60 cents of every dollar that will be invested. This is a dramatic change especially when considered against the historical performance: for almost 4 decades, developing countries had been accounting for just about 20 cents for every dollarIn less than a few years from now, total investment in the developing world will overtake high income countries; and world total investment will continue to rise thanks to an upward trend of investment activity in developing nations [, while investment in high income countries will likely level in the next two decades.]Note that the increasing role of developing countries materializes even with investment rates projected to come down for all regions. This apparent paradox can be resolved by considering the fact that the economic weight of developing countries is rapidly increasing and that these countries have much larger investment rates than developed regions. This is the so called composition paradox…
- #14 Having answered the first question, let’s move to the second: will an aging world have enough savings?Here you see a graph that illustrates the evolution of the ratio of working to nonworking population. Different regions reach the maximum of the demographic dividend with different speed, and in different time, but for most there will be a reduction of this dividend in the future. Thus for most regions, saving rates will be coming down with the noticeable exception of sub saharanafricaOnce again at the global level, the composition effect applies and high saving regions, even with decreasing saving rates, will have a larger weight in the future.………………..3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).
- #15 Having answered the first question, let’s move to the second: will an aging world have enough savings?Here you see a graph that illustrates the evolution of the ratio of working to nonworking population. Different regions reach the maximum of the demographic dividend with different speed, and in different time, but for most there will be a reduction of this dividend in the future. Thus for most regions, saving rates will be coming down with the noticeable exception of sub saharanafricaOnce again at the global level, the composition effect applies and high saving regions, even with decreasing saving rates, will have a larger weight in the future.………………..3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).
- #16 Having answered the first question, let’s move to the second: will an aging world have enough savings?Here you see a graph that illustrates the evolution of the ratio of working to nonworking population. Different regions reach the maximum of the demographic dividend with different speed, and in different time, but for most there will be a reduction of this dividend in the future. Thus for most regions, saving rates will be coming down with the noticeable exception of sub saharanafricaOnce again at the global level, the composition effect applies and high saving regions, even with decreasing saving rates, will have a larger weight in the future.………………..3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).
- #17 Having answered the first question, let’s move to the second: will an aging world have enough savings?Here you see a graph that illustrates the evolution of the ratio of working to nonworking population. Different regions reach the maximum of the demographic dividend with different speed, and in different time, but for most there will be a reduction of this dividend in the future. Thus for most regions, saving rates will be coming down with the noticeable exception of sub saharanafricaOnce again at the global level, the composition effect applies and high saving regions, even with decreasing saving rates, will have a larger weight in the future.………………..3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).3 dimensions of demographic asynchronicity: (a) speed (slope); (b) timing (location of peaks); (c) size of baby boomer/bulge generation (height of peaks).
- #18 Finally the third question… how will savers and investors be matched? Well, developing countries will become the main savers and investors. Here we show an interesting metric: the evolution of international gross capital flows. these flows are currently dominated by advanced economies, but this will change dramatically in the future, especially in a high convergence scenario where developing countries will account for 60 percent of the world flows.And our computer based projections are quite conservative when compared to a linear trend (that represents a situation where the past continues as usual).Let me conclude with one important warning though. The trends that the report shows, will not be realized automatically. Without any efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within successful countries, some people, will be left behind. There is not much time, and there is a lot of work to do.
- #19 Finally the third question… how will savers and investors be matched? Well, developing countries will become the main savers and investors. Here we show an interesting metric: the evolution of international gross capital flows. these flows are currently dominated by advanced economies, but this will change dramatically in the future, especially in a high convergence scenario where developing countries will account for 60 percent of the world flows.And our computer based projections are quite conservative when compared to a linear trend (that represents a situation where the past continues as usual).Let me conclude with one important warning though. The trends that the report shows, will not be realized automatically. Without any efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within successful countries, some people, will be left behind. There is not much time, and there is a lot of work to do.
- #20 Finally the third question… how will savers and investors be matched? Well, developing countries will become the main savers and investors. Here we show an interesting metric: the evolution of international gross capital flows. these flows are currently dominated by advanced economies, but this will change dramatically in the future, especially in a high convergence scenario where developing countries will account for 60 percent of the world flows.And our computer based projections are quite conservative when compared to a linear trend (that represents a situation where the past continues as usual).Let me conclude with one important warning though. The trends that the report shows, will not be realized automatically. Without any efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within successful countries, some people, will be left behind. There is not much time, and there is a lot of work to do.
- #21 Finally the third question… how will savers and investors be matched? Well, developing countries will become the main savers and investors. Here we show an interesting metric: the evolution of international gross capital flows. these flows are currently dominated by advanced economies, but this will change dramatically in the future, especially in a high convergence scenario where developing countries will account for 60 percent of the world flows.And our computer based projections are quite conservative when compared to a linear trend (that represents a situation where the past continues as usual).Let me conclude with one important warning though. The trends that the report shows, will not be realized automatically. Without any efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within successful countries, some people, will be left behind. There is not much time, and there is a lot of work to do.
- #22 Finally the third question… how will savers and investors be matched? Well, developing countries will become the main savers and investors. Here we show an interesting metric: the evolution of international gross capital flows. these flows are currently dominated by advanced economies, but this will change dramatically in the future, especially in a high convergence scenario where developing countries will account for 60 percent of the world flows.And our computer based projections are quite conservative when compared to a linear trend (that represents a situation where the past continues as usual).Let me conclude with one important warning though. The trends that the report shows, will not be realized automatically. Without any efforts, some countries will be left behind. And, more importantly, even within successful countries, some people, will be left behind. There is not much time, and there is a lot of work to do.
- #23 For example, the report finds that savings tend to be concentrated amongst few richer people. Poorer households have very few or no saving at all. Without saving they cannot accumulate physical or human capital and they and their sons and daughters are trapped in poverty.Increasing earning capacity via increasing access to education is a powerful way to start being able to save and thus escape poverty.Beyond this equity argument there is also an efficiency argument. As shown in this graph when we simulate an increase in education, Mexico aggregate saving rates may increase considerably. The report points to some other policy issues and it highlights that a 15- to 20-year time period will go by much quicker than we think. The pressure on developing countries to adapt is coming faster than it ever did for the industrialized countries during their own development.The global distribution of capital and wealth will shift toward the developing world Developing countries will account for two-thirds to three-quarters of every dollar of investment and saving, compared to less than 50 cents today. Global capital stocks and wealth will be concentrated in the developing world, which will account for more than 50 percent, compared to less than 30 percent today. As developing country saving outstrip investment projects, global investment will be increasingly funded by capital flows the South.Asynchronous demographic change will drive global saving patterns Regions with aging populations (EAP, HIC) will experience relatively larger contractions in their saving rates, while regions with growing labor forces and/or rapid productivity advances (SAR, AFR) will experience significantly slower declines (or increases). Global investment rates will fall slightly, largely in response to the smaller global pool of saving, but changes in relative rental rates on capital will mean that some regions (HIC, LAC) will see slower declines than others.A global financial landscape more diversity, more integration, and more interdependency Diversity: Developing countries will be a more important participants in global markets. Sophisticated: Decline in FDI and bank lending, shift toward capital markets. interconnected: Net and gross capital flows will increase. Integrated: Convergence in returns to capital between the developed and developing world (convergence in returns to capital due to relatively faster growth of risk-adjusted rental rates in HIC and compression in risk premia faced by DEV).
- #24 For example, the report finds that savings tend to be concentrated amongst few richer people. Poorer households have very few or no saving at all. Without saving they cannot accumulate physical or human capital and they and their sons and daughters are trapped in poverty.Increasing earning capacity via increasing access to education is a powerful way to start being able to save and thus escape poverty.Beyond this equity argument there is also an efficiency argument. As shown in this graph when we simulate an increase in education, Mexico aggregate saving rates may increase considerably. The report points to some other policy issues and it highlights that a 15- to 20-year time period will go by much quicker than we think. The pressure on developing countries to adapt is coming faster than it ever did for the industrialized countries during their own development.The global distribution of capital and wealth will shift toward the developing world Developing countries will account for two-thirds to three-quarters of every dollar of investment and saving, compared to less than 50 cents today. Global capital stocks and wealth will be concentrated in the developing world, which will account for more than 50 percent, compared to less than 30 percent today. As developing country saving outstrip investment projects, global investment will be increasingly funded by capital flows the South.Asynchronous demographic change will drive global saving patterns Regions with aging populations (EAP, HIC) will experience relatively larger contractions in their saving rates, while regions with growing labor forces and/or rapid productivity advances (SAR, AFR) will experience significantly slower declines (or increases). Global investment rates will fall slightly, largely in response to the smaller global pool of saving, but changes in relative rental rates on capital will mean that some regions (HIC, LAC) will see slower declines than others.A global financial landscape more diversity, more integration, and more interdependency Diversity: Developing countries will be a more important participants in global markets. Sophisticated: Decline in FDI and bank lending, shift toward capital markets. interconnected: Net and gross capital flows will increase. Integrated: Convergence in returns to capital between the developed and developing world (convergence in returns to capital due to relatively faster growth of risk-adjusted rental rates in HIC and compression in risk premia faced by DEV).
- #25 For example, the report finds that savings tend to be concentrated amongst few richer people. Poorer households have very few or no saving at all. Without saving they cannot accumulate physical or human capital and they and their sons and daughters are trapped in poverty.Increasing earning capacity via increasing access to education is a powerful way to start being able to save and thus escape poverty.Beyond this equity argument there is also an efficiency argument. As shown in this graph when we simulate an increase in education, Mexico aggregate saving rates may increase considerably. The report points to some other policy issues and it highlights that a 15- to 20-year time period will go by much quicker than we think. The pressure on developing countries to adapt is coming faster than it ever did for the industrialized countries during their own development.The global distribution of capital and wealth will shift toward the developing world Developing countries will account for two-thirds to three-quarters of every dollar of investment and saving, compared to less than 50 cents today. Global capital stocks and wealth will be concentrated in the developing world, which will account for more than 50 percent, compared to less than 30 percent today. As developing country saving outstrip investment projects, global investment will be increasingly funded by capital flows the South.Asynchronous demographic change will drive global saving patterns Regions with aging populations (EAP, HIC) will experience relatively larger contractions in their saving rates, while regions with growing labor forces and/or rapid productivity advances (SAR, AFR) will experience significantly slower declines (or increases). Global investment rates will fall slightly, largely in response to the smaller global pool of saving, but changes in relative rental rates on capital will mean that some regions (HIC, LAC) will see slower declines than others.A global financial landscape more diversity, more integration, and more interdependency Diversity: Developing countries will be a more important participants in global markets. Sophisticated: Decline in FDI and bank lending, shift toward capital markets. interconnected: Net and gross capital flows will increase. Integrated: Convergence in returns to capital between the developed and developing world (convergence in returns to capital due to relatively faster growth of risk-adjusted rental rates in HIC and compression in risk premia faced by DEV).
- #26 what underpins growth in these various parts of the world. More precisely, it looks atThe first edition highlighted that the world economy has become multipolar: global economic expansion is and will continue to be the result of growth in many different parts of the world. And the first edition emphasized the fact that many developing countries will continue to experience sustained growth and thus are or will soon become some of the most important growth poles in the global economy.